SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Can't remember exactly who I had this debate with at the time in this thread. Some were disagreeing that closing the pubs 1hr earlier would make feck all difference to transmission.

Well...

"'No hard evidence' behind curfew"
https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Ar...its-Patrick-Vallance-Coronavirus-restrictions

Of course there isn’t any hard evidence. How do you generate hard evidence? Implement a curfew on every second pub and compare incidence rates between them? There’s not much hard evidence behind lots of measures. I mean, there’s hard evidence that closing all pubs permanently brings transmission down but when it comes to finding ways for them to keep trading, despite the obvious risk to the lives of staff/customers (which is the reason curfews etc were implemented) all you can do is try and apply some common sense. Which is what he explains in that interview.

If the hospitality trade are insisting on hard evidence to support every decision then they should never have been allowed to reopen. Because we know for a fact that this increases transmission of the virus.

 

[acnumber9]

In all honesty, those people will likely go back to someone's house regardless.

In a lot of cases, yes. But are you more likely to go home at 10 or 1 in the morning?

 

[SalfordRed18]

I find the current method best in terms of pubs. All sales stop at 10pm and you have an hour drink up time. You find that people leaving is staggered, whereas before where you had to be out the doors by 10, you found everyone got that last drink and everyone left at the same time. Still remember the first Friday the curfew kicked in, the queues for supermarkets at half 10 were ridiculous.

 

[Smores]

Personally I'd have stopped it at 9pm at least then you're stopping a drinking session before it's begun. Pubs should be food only, no one needs a fecking pint in a pandemic.

 

[golden_blunder]

Personally I'd have stopped it at 9pm at least then you're stopping a drinking session before it's begun. Pubs should be food only, no one needs a fecking pint in a pandemic.

 

[acnumber9]

Personally I'd have stopped it at 9pm at least then you're stopping a drinking session before it's begun. Pubs should be food only, no one needs a fecking pint in a pandemic.

The people who work in them probably need their jobs though.

 

[4bars]

Well there you go. An average of 1800/day means it’s inevitable there will have been days where the numbers were well over 2k. These things aren’t perfectly evenly distributed.

Anyway, I’m just being pedantic. The US is getting a staggering death toll from covid and the fact that so many are down to blatant mismanagement must be infuriating.

Yeah, over 3k a day is unacceptable and seeing the infection rates will not go down anytime soon. And then Trump saying that they are getting 16% heard immunity like "look at that". Is not mismanagement, is straight negligence and done on purpose to push their non science narrative

 

[SalfordRed18]

A

The people who work in them probably need their jobs though.

Along with brewery/distillery staff.

 

[acnumber9]

A
Along with brewery/distillery staff.

Or the wholesalers that sell the stock to them. Aside from all that, there’s no reason why anybody should leave the house at all.

 

[Stanley Road]

From 4k per day dec1 to almost 9k per day in NL. Get rid of all the rules if they're not policed, utterly pointless. Let natural selection decide who lives.

 

[Suv666]

Just read 3000 died in the US in a single day. That's beyond mental. What a crazy place.

 

[Wibble]

I think western media’s coverage of Russian and Chinese tech is extremely cynical and biased.
I don’t know if it is justified in this instance but when I read the news, I do not feel like it can be trusted.

Pfizer getting EUA was reported as being a huge positive milestone but when China or Russia do the same thing, it is reported as rushed/untested.

Russia and China haven't tested their vaccine to a level and/or in a way that allows them to be approved in countries with a rigorous approval process.

The press could throw a party for the Chinese and Russian vaccine makers and it still wouldn't get approved.

 

[golden_blunder]

From 4k per day dec1 to almost 9k per day in NL. Get rid of all the rules if they're not policed, utterly pointless. Let natural selection decide who lives.

Mental

 

[noodlehair]

Is there any reason not to put London into tier 3 now? It's already miserable and dead anyway due to anything remotely cheerful being banned, even though you can still get on a packed tube whenever you feel like it. I don't see what real difference it would make other than making the trains a bit less busy.

London is usually buzzing and full of life this time of year and we've turned it into a anxiety inducing dead zone. I went for a walk across Tower Bridge and along the Southbank today, and between the lack of anyone being allowed to do anything and military helicopters flying in between buildings it felt like a scene out of a zombie apocalypse movie. It's all a bit sad and I know it's saving the NHS from being overun but I can also understand how a lot of people have just had enough of it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there any reason not to put London into tier 3 now? It's already miserable and dead anyway due to anything remotely cheerful being banned, even though you can still get on a packed tube whenever you feel like it. I don't see what real difference it would make other than making the trains a bit less busy.

London is usually buzzing and full of life this time of year and we've turned it into a anxiety inducing dead zone. I went for a walk across Tower Bridge and along the Southbank today, and between the lack of anyone being allowed to do anything and military helicopters flying in between buildings it felt like a scene out of a zombie apocalypse movie. It's all a bit sad and I know it's saving the NHS from being overun but I can also understand how a lot of people have just had enough of it.

One of my favourite walks when I lived there

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Is there much hard evidence behind any of the UK's decisions during this? Most of the rules have been done in complete isolation from what the rest of Europe and the world has been doing.

True.

For example, my family had decided to have a 3 household Christmas Day. But also decided to all self isolate for 7 days prior to the 25th to reduce any risk. The UK government has never suggested this but it seemed wise. Then, yesterday I see a clip of Merkel asking German citizens to consider doing just that.

I struggle to think of a countries government other than Trumps USA who have handled this worse than our lot.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Of course there isn’t any hard evidence. How do you generate hard evidence? Implement a curfew on every second pub and compare incidence rates between them? There’s not much hard evidence behind lots of measures. I mean, there’s hard evidence that closing all pubs permanently brings transmission down but when it comes to finding ways for them to keep trading, despite the obvious risk to the lives of staff/customers (which is the reason curfews etc were implemented) all you can do is try and apply some common sense. Which is what he explains in that interview.

If the hospitality trade are insisting on hard evidence to support every decision then they should never have been allowed to reopen. Because we know for a fact that this increases transmission of the virus.

You generate hard evidence by analysing track and trace data. Or run a survey. Or, better still, you use the hard evidence you already have, as you stated "there’s hard evidence that closing all pubs permanently brings transmission down". We chose the worst of both Worlds, viral spread and big economic damage due to harsher lockdowns being required to compensate for inadequate policy decisions.

I think everyone would appreciate hard evidence and logic behind the government's decision. Yes, the article i shared was hospitality focused but there are multiple news outlets covering it

Personally I think the government shouldn't have allowed hospitality to re open. The options were that, or leave them fully open. The closing 1 hour earlier was tokenism and would not have had an impact even it hadn't meant people cramming into pubs at the same time, drinking faster and then piling out into packed streets together. It was bloody obvious.

 

[Wibble]

Of course there isn’t any hard evidence. How do you generate hard evidence? Implement a curfew on every second pub and compare incidence rates between them? There’s not much hard evidence behind lots of measures. I mean, there’s hard evidence that closing all pubs permanently brings transmission down but when it comes to finding ways for them to keep trading, despite the obvious risk to the lives of staff/customers (which is the reason curfews etc were implemented) all you can do is try and apply some common sense. Which is what he explains in that interview.

If the hospitality trade are insisting on hard evidence to support every decision then they should never have been allowed to reopen. Because we know for a fact that this increases transmission of the virus.

If they want hard evidence perhaps data from Victoria should be used to justify a closure of all hospitality venues?

The bottom line is all restrictions are likely to help even if it is is just to make things less shit than they are.

 

[Dumbstar]

3000 deaths a day!! I'm just struggling to get my head around that in a poor African country for any reason let alone in the USA. That's 30,000 new deaths in 10 days. And it's 300,000 new deaths in just over three months.

Shiieeeet. I know lots die due to cancer, malaria, even alcohol/drug/nicotine abuse, but to die in that number because of simply not wearing a mask and keeping some social distance is mind numbing. What other species on earth goes through such mass suicide/murder? Lemmings? Surely, that's just a myth too.

 

[Wibble]

What other species on earth goes through such mass suicide/murder? Lemmings? Surely, that's just a myth too.

It is

https://www.britannica.com/story/do-lemmings-really-commit-mass-suicide

 

[Carolina Red]

This week vs last week (county by county in SC)

Updated numbers...



My district announced that we’re going to 75% capacity (rotating 4 day schedule for the kids, 5 days for the teachers) starting after winter break.

Here’s last week for comparison...

 

[Stanley Road]

so what is this magic drug that got Guliani up from his death bed within days?

 

[tombombadil]

so what is this magic drug that got Guliani up from his death bed within days?

If it's the same treatment that Trump got, it's probably antibodies from recovering patients who volunteered to share it. Which, as you can see, is extremely rare.

Dexamethasone as well is shown to be effective at preventing the more severe cases as well. Cheaper and more common. But not the same level as the antibodies.

The former New York mayor said he received remdesivir, dexamethasone and “exactly the same” treatment that Trump got in October when he was hospitalized, which the president has often credited for his speedy recovery.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...oronavirus-treatments-many-are-dying-without/

 

[Brwned]

3000 deaths a day!! I'm just struggling to get my head around that in a poor African country for any reason let alone in the USA. That's 30,000 new deaths in 10 days. And it's 300,000 new deaths in just over three months.

Shiieeeet. I know lots die due to cancer, malaria, even alcohol/drug/nicotine abuse, but to die in that number because of simply not wearing a mask and keeping some social distance is mind numbing. What other species on earth goes through such mass suicide/murder? Lemmings? Surely, that's just a myth too.

Especially when capitalist giants like Goldman Sachs are saying dude, you need to wear a mask so we can keep making those stacks. It will be looked back on as one of the biggest symbols of the US failing to lead by example on the global stage once more. And presumably hailed by libertarians for decades as a great moment, contrary to all available evidence.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/face-masks-and-gdp.html

 

[Stanley Road]

My mrs getting tested today. Colleague tested positive yesterday and is very sick.

 

[redshaw]

Germany's situation has been worsening this past month. Starting to look like other countries in Europe now.

 

[Stanley Road]

Germany's situation has been worsening this past month. Starting to look like other countries in Europe now.

People have given up, we should have had proper lockdowns to begin with. It's dragged on for nearly a year when it could have been so easily stopped. No point in adding stricter rules for people to ignore.

 

[Brwned]

Anyone know why the UK have changed their post travel isolation policy from 14 days to 10? It did seem odd to me that people known to be in contact with someone infected isolated for 10 days, based on the incubation and infection period, but the travel one was different. What was the supposed logic underpinning it then, and what is it now?

I rented somewhere away from the family home for the full 14 days, happy enough to do that given those were the rules I'd agreed to when I left, but it is a bit annoying throwing a couple of hundred quid down the drain...

 

[golden_blunder]

My mrs getting tested today. Colleague tested positive yesterday and is very sick.

Good luck to her Stan

 

[jojojo]

Anyone know why the UK have changed their post travel isolation policy from 14 days to 10? It did seem odd to me that people known to be in contact with someone infected isolated for 10 days, based on the incubation and infection period, but the travel one was different. What was the supposed logic underpinning it then, and what is it now?

I rented somewhere away from the family home for the full 14 days, happy enough to do that given those were the rules I'd agreed to when I left, but it is a bit annoying throwing a couple of hundred quid down the drain...

It assumes that you've had no symptoms during the ten days and that you're isolating throughout. Hence your last possible infection contact is ten days ago. People generally start showing symptoms around 5 days +/- 2 and are at their most infectious in the couple of days before, through to about 3/5 days after.

The ten days then covers the idea of: "typical 5 day" to symptoms + 5 days days after, or 7 days to symptoms + 3 after pattern from which they suggest that should also cover all the asymptomatic cases. That's the basic rationale. It's also why they're giving travellers the option of a (paid for) test after 5 days, with a possibility of early release.

The clock restarts if you do get symptoms, at which point you need a test.

 

[Blackwidow]

Germany's situation has been worsening this past month. Starting to look like other countries in Europe now.

I see that in my village. Some days ago there was the message of first cases in the care home. A week later 43 of 80 older people tested positive, 6 are in hospital, 3 are already dead. 18 of the staff tested positive, too. And that is just the start of it as the first cases were just found a week ago.

My parents bought an apartment in the new house of the organisation a year ago where they offer day care for older people (for people in the appartments that need it but from the outside, too and all kind of help as needed (from housekeeping to meals to body care etc.). Everybody who lives there got tested but fortunately all negative - atleast until now (Keep your fingers crossed, please!)

 

[redshaw]

Worrying for the UK is cases are rising again, 21672 today and hospital admissions rising to 1622.

After the Nov-Dec restrictions, cases came down to 14k from a peak of 24k and admissions down to 1200 from 2k

 

[ReallyUSA]

3000 deaths a day!! I'm just struggling to get my head around that in a poor African country for any reason let alone in the USA. That's 30,000 new deaths in 10 days. And it's 300,000 new deaths in just over three months.

Shiieeeet. I know lots die due to cancer, malaria, even alcohol/drug/nicotine abuse, but to die in that number because of simply not wearing a mask and keeping some social distance is mind numbing. What other species on earth goes through such mass suicide/murder? Lemmings? Surely, that's just a myth too.

Once big orange man politized it, it was going to be downhill until we get to an obscene number. Add that with our selfishness... going to be a long few months.

 

[Tibs]

Cases on the up, R rate on the up...and this time next week, bars, restaurants and pubs will have been given the green light to re-open, and then the easing up of the rules.

It's going to get significantly worse before it gets better

 

[sammsky1]

really great long read piece on how covid19 exposed all the cracks ....

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Stanley Road]

Good luck to her Stan

Negative

 

[golden_blunder]

Negative

 

[jojojo]

Another of those science wow moments, this time from researchers looking for potential treatments by analysing the DNA of thousands of covid ICU patients. They've already identified 5 genes that were seen more often in the ICU patients than in a matching healthy control group. That in turn has allowed them to identify some existing drugs that may be worth prioritisation as part of the ongoing treatment clinical trials.

https://www.theguardian.com/science...sts-identify-drugs-that-may-help-severe-cases

 

[noodlehair]

One of my favourite walks when I lived there

When I was walking over Tower Bridge a Chinook flew directly over probably only 15m above the bridge, which was pretty cool but also emphasised the whole eary feeling of being in some kind of oppressive regime reality. The police stopping and searching half the people on the bridge didn't exactly help either, although I presume there was a non covid related reason why that was happening.

Have to say although I don't agree with these anti lockdown protests at all, I can see how people feel like their freedoms are being taken away and end up feeling really anxious about it. It's quite scary how dead everything is.

Also the trains are still a big problem. Even in an empty city they're still pretty packed. I did think it was silly not having any outdoor christmas markets or things that are minimal risk to cheer people up, but the problem would be that they'd draw so many people and then the trains/transport would also then be a much bigger problem.

I don't really see the point in delaying the tier 3 decision if it's basically inevitable. I also don't get why they can't just close the schools a week early for Christmas. I'm strongly for keeping them open in general as fair education is vitally important, but the last week of term before Christmas is hardly peak learning time, and supposedly the rates are rising most rapidly among school ages.

 

[Brwned]

It assumes that you've had no symptoms during the ten days and that you're isolating throughout. Hence your last possible infection contact is ten days ago. People generally start showing symptoms around 5 days +/- 2 and are at their most infectious in the couple of days before, through to about 3/5 days after.

The ten days then covers the idea of: "typical 5 day" to symptoms + 5 days days after, or 7 days to symptoms + 3 after pattern from which they suggest that should also cover all the asymptomatic cases. That's the basic rationale. It's also why they're giving travellers the option of a (paid for) test after 5 days, with a possibility of early release.

The clock restarts if you do get symptoms, at which point you need a test.

Yeah I understood the rationale behind the 10 day period, but not the rationale between switching between 14 and 10. I had thought that by day 10, if you've had no symptoms you can be sure you will not transmit the virus as a symptomatic or asymptomatic carrier.

After reading the CDC reports it turns out a minority of people develop symptoms on day 12, and so theoretically could be at their most infectious in days 10-14. So the previous travel guidelines of 14 days wasn't nonsensical but just exceptionally cautious. Fair enough. Still seems a little strange to me that they'd change these guidelines now when the evidence doesn't seem to have changed.

Another of those science wow moments, this time from researchers looking for potential treatments by analysing the DNA of thousands of covid ICU patients. They've already identified 5 genes that were seen more often in the ICU patients than in a matching healthy control group. That in turn has allowed them to identify some existing drugs that may be worth prioritisation as part of the ongoing treatment clinical trials.

https://www.theguardian.com/science...sts-identify-drugs-that-may-help-severe-cases

Very cool.