SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone

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It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation,+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Not sure if this was posted before but that’s a great read on the current state of knowledge about new variants of covid and offers some good insights https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...om-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear
That’s a good read. This bit is interesting.

scientists say B.1.1.7 may already be much more widespread. Dutch researchers have found it in a sample from one patient taken in early December, Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge wrote in a letter to Parliament today. They will try to find out how the patient became infected and if there are related cases. Other countries may well have the variant as well, says epidemiologist William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the United Kingdom may just have picked it up first because that country has the most sophisticated SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the world. Many countries have little or no sequencing.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
Because if it isn't a new more virulent strain causing the growth it will further undermine confidence in the science and government competence?
 

Pogue Mahone

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Because if it isn't a new more virulent strain causing the growth it will further undermine confidence in the science and government competence?
I was more thinking about the short term effect of travel bans on your supply chains, with imminent Brexit feckery making a bad situation catastrophic. Which makes it a hell of a lot less likely that any of this is a Tory plot to cover their arses for failure of the tiered lockdown approach.
 

Wibble

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It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.

https://khub.net/documents/13593956...b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
But Boris is using the possibility of increased infectiousness and running with it to cover for his incompetence. If it actually turns out to be more infectious it is win win for him.
 

MikeUpNorth

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But Boris is using the possibility of increased infectiousness and running with it to cover for his incompetence. If it actually turns out to be more infectious it is win win for him.
None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
 

Pogue Mahone

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None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
Agreed. And, as I said above, the effect this is having on freight in and out of Britain with no deal Brexit looming makes this the Tory’s worst nightmare, rather than any kind of lucky break.
 

Smores

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None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
They're spooked by the increase in cases, whether that's down to a new strain really is debatable. They chanced it but once they've seen that putting the South East under tier 2 with retail booming during an upward trend has gone spectacularly wrong what else could they do?

The route they've gone for is far less damaging to them than hospitals being overwhelmed and a death boom just before vaccine roll out.
 

Brwned

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I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
Agreed on both. I'm not saying there is no reason for any scepticism, but principally the scepticism is on the validity of the limited research carried out by PHE and NERVTAG that informed the PM. His response to that meeting is 100% legitimate. If he got it wrong in the other direction it would be a much bigger problem.

This is what they said about the timing of the spread. It is not only that growth happened during lockdown while it didn't elsewhere, but this particular strain grew much quicker than the others at a time when there was already high transmission. They haven't noticed that happening before. New strains only developed without a selective advantage when there was low transmission, as far as they're aware. And like you say the UK track this more than others. So it's the fact it went against the grain both wags in terms of transmission.

It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low prevalence without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high prevalence suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants.

It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place.
Agreed it is a very serious choice with a lot of risks.
 

RoadTrip

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I totally agree with you that the people in charge are complete idiots and and largely to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. The decision not to restrict travel into the UK from countries earlier in the year, a lockdown brought in too late, the Dominic Cummings eyesight test, attempting to force children back to school before the September break, the eat out to help the virus, Johnson telling people to get back into the office and then being forced to backtrack as infection rates started to increase.

Falsely raising people hopes regarding Christmas was incredibly cruel and stupid. It looked like we were heading for an absolute disaster following Christmas and the brick of reality has hit Johnson full in the face. The so called recent discovery of this new strain has given the Government an excuse to back down and whether this new strain is largely responsible for the spike in cases is debatable, however the fact remains that cases are increasing at an alarming rate. More importantly it has dealt the Government a get out of jail free card and has forced them to do the right thing albeit in a characteristically bungled way. Johnson not loosing face is far more important than peoples lives.

Raising infection rates are not just down to Government incompitence though, the population also has a crucial role to play. The virus is spread by person to person contact, that fact has been consistent right from the beginning, thats not difficult to understand, even if advice from this bunch of idiots has been. The advice and rules brought in by the Government have been contradictory and confusing to say the least, but the same cant be said regarding advice from the medical advisors which has been largely consistent throughout this, apart from the wearing of masks in the early stages. The Government has clearly ignored the medical advice on numerous occasions.

The scenes at London Stations are not entirely down to the Government though and is a little naive if you don't mind me saying. Many of those people packing those trains have decided that their Christmas will not be disrupted no matter what. The announcement on Friday would have come as a bitter disappointment to many but these are adults not children. It appears that many people are prepared to put themselves and other people, including those people who need to use the transport system to go to work. People traveling to and from work being told being told that social distancing would not be possible and advised to not travel if they feel uncomfortable. This is not an isolated incident either, just cast your mind back to the summer and the bank holiday weekend. Beaches and other tourist spots rammed full despite people being asked not to travel. The timing of the announcement and the fact that the tier 4 and restrictions should have been brought in with immediate effect was a glaring act of stupidity but that doesn't excuse the stupidity and deliberate acts of individual selfishness by people who are not prepared to have Christmas disrupted.
Agree with a lot of this, if not all.
 

saivet

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I know there was talk about mass testing being available to anyone in tier 3 areas, how has that gone as I've not heard it mentioned much? I'm in tier 4 now, so surely mass testing should be available? My mum and brother are still going into work and haven't been tested at all, so would be good to sort out a test for them even if they have no symptoms.
 

RoadTrip

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Agreed on both. I'm not saying there is no reason for any scepticism, but principally the scepticism is on the validity of the limited research carried out by PHE and NERVTAG that informed the PM. His response to that meeting is 100% legitimate. If he got it wrong in the other direction it would be a much bigger problem.

This is what they said about the timing of the spread. It is not only that growth happened during lockdown while it didn't elsewhere, but this particular strain grew much quicker than the others at a time when there was already high transmission. They haven't noticed that happening before. New strains only developed without a selective advantage when there was low transmission, as far as they're aware. And like you say the UK track this more than others. So it's the fact it went against the grain both wags in terms of transmission.



Agreed it is a very serious choice with a lot of risks.
I don’t know how valid the research done on the new strain is yet, and I’m sure there’s plenty to do to verify recent claims which are based just on very preliminary results. However, just looking at number of new cases in the last week per BBC, just put in a handful of areas around the south east and London. It’s clear to see that:

A) Case rates have risen significantly in the last 7 days alone.
B) In many cases we are talking a doubling of the virus within 7 days.
C) I’ve been following at least the few areas relevant to me where my family and relatives live for many months and I have definitely not at any point seen an increase this fast, even during our weakest period of lockdown.

That to me says there must be something to this. Also given how Europe has reacted.

Do we know how much is due to the new virus vs, let’s say, weather related effects as it’s colder now, or lack of following guidelines, or pure random luck on circles it’s transmitting - I don’t know. But the prominence of it, across the whole SE and London where it’s factually known the new strain is proportionally higher than in the rest of the country, is telling.

Doesn’t excuse Boris and his shit show of handling this but I genuinely struggle to see this being anything other than real.
 

F-Red

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I was more thinking about the short term effect of travel bans on your supply chains, with imminent Brexit feckery making a bad situation catastrophic.
Having turned on the work laptop this morning, I can confirm the effect has been almost immediate. Going to be an interesting couple of days.
 

sammsky1

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It is not about how it transmits between humans but how it works within the body. It binds more easily and appears to replicate more quickly which creates a higher viral load because of some structural changes to the receptor binding domain (RBD). Higher viral load means more transmission in general.
Thanks for explaining. You’ve made many informative and excellent posts recently in this thread!
 

cyberman

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If these restrictions do last for months, thats it for English clubs in Europe right?
 

Brwned

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First time I've been in a UK shop for 3 months and I am baffled. Masks everywhere but social distancing has gone out the window it seems. Can't believe people are browsing Tesco for fecking deals on cushions right now.
 

redshaw

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Panic buying worse than anything during spring with the ports block news. Can't even get on the supermarket car park.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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First time I've been in a UK shop for 3 months and I am baffled. Masks everywhere but social distancing has gone out the window it seems. Can't believe people are browsing Tesco for fecking deals on cushions right now.
I can. People are fundamentally gormless. Ive lost all hope for humanity this year.
 

Buster15

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But Boris is using the possibility of increased infectiousness and running with it to cover for his incompetence. If it actually turns out to be more infectious it is win win for him.
Not sure how this could even be a win let alone win win.
The country already knows that this new strain was detected months ago.
But there will be those who worship Boris and think he is doing a wonderful job.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Not sure how this could even be a win let alone win win.
The country already knows that this new strain was detected months ago.
But there will be those who are dribbling cockwits who should not be allowed to vote
Fixed.
 

Wibble

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Not sure how this could even be a win let alone win win.
The country already knows that this new strain was detected months ago.
But there will be those who worship Boris and think he is doing a wonderful job.
Because not only can he pass the blame (win 1) but he can do so based on it actually being more infectious (win 2) if that proves to be true.

They don't operate like the rest of us.
 

Roger

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First time I've been in a UK shop for 3 months and I am baffled. Masks everywhere but social distancing has gone out the window it seems. Can't believe people are browsing Tesco for fecking deals on cushions right now.
Thats been going on for some time now. I live 2 minutes from a Morrisons and I have seen it go from half empty car parks and socially distanced queuing to full car parks and no queues. Yesterday I drove past our local Tesco and when I mentioned to the missus that the car park wasn't as busy as I thought it would be she said "Oh no they don't open till 10am that'll be people browsing" What the feck!!

My wife had to go to the doctors today and was very apprehensive. There she is sitting in the waiting room and some guy walks in not wearing a mask. He didn't sit anywhere near her but she told me all she could hear was his breathing. When she went in for her appointment she mentioned it to the nurse and said this person may have a genuine reason for not wearing a mask but it made her very uneasy. When she came out of her appointment the man was now wearing a mask. Now he may have just forgot, who knows. The point is he was not challenged by the staff on reception. And this is at a bloody doctors surgery.
 

11101

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The UK seems so isolated now. Numerous countries banning flights from the UK and from Jan 1st, Brits won't be able to travel to Europe for non-essential trips because of Brexit.

It's all so weird.
Not even sure Europeans can go back to Europe. I'm stuck in the UK for now...

The EU is getting pissy now too. Accusations that the UK knew about the new variant in September and did nothing.
 

Penna

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Not even sure Europeans can go back to Europe. I'm stuck in the UK for now...

The EU is getting pissy now too. Accusations that the UK knew about the new variant in September and did nothing.
I don't know how you'd get back at the moment. You may be stuck there till after 6th Jan, unfortunately.
 

11101

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I don't know how you'd get back at the moment. You may be stuck there till after 6th Jan, unfortunately.
I would think the borders will reopen soon to those who can prove a requirement to travel. A British citizen with European residency is one thing, but I cant see how they can exclude European citizens who are stuck in the UK away from their home country.
 

Penna

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I would think the borders will reopen soon to those who can prove a requirement to travel. A British citizen with European residency is one thing, but I cant see how they can exclude European citizens who are stuck in the UK away from their home country.
Let's hope so. They normally allow people to always return to their place of residence, even when other restrictions are in place.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I would think the borders will reopen soon to those who can prove a requirement to travel. A British citizen with European residency is one thing, but I cant see how they can exclude European citizens who are stuck in the UK away from their home country.
That will be up to their home country. They won’t stop them coming home will probably insist on 14 days quarantine on arrival. At least I’m hoping they will do in Ireland anyway (despite the border making life way more complicated than it should be)
 

noodlehair

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If I catch COVID it will not be Boris or one of his cohorts that give it to me it will be a tosser with a similar attitude to yours. All of us are suffering in this pandemic but what the feck.....how many more times does wash your hands, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay in your bubble have to be parroted before folk take notice and accept responsibility.

And sorry but I reckon you are telling porkies if with hand on heart you are really trying to claim that you have only had contact with those who have obeyed the rules/guidelines as I know only too well that many have pushed the boundaries as far as they can. I do so wish we had adopted what I understand to have been the Chinese method and physically locked people into there homes and put up roadblocks to stop citizens moving from place to place and instead of our police adopting a softly softly approach hammered transgressors because the bottom line is that the selfish stupidity of a segment of the population is killing people.
Similar attitude to mine?

I've stuck but the rules for the entire pandemic and haven't seen most of my family since March, apart from my dad who has at one point been in hospital and nearly died, also without being able to see his own family. I now also can't see any of them at Christmas after spending most of the year sat on my own and being told for months that I could, and mentally that has broken me.

I've helped out at a food bank and had to go to work every day. I've delivered people's pescriptions for them. I've been working until 8-9pm most evenings just to try and help people and lost count of how many times I've burnt out or broken down I've had a builder cry over me because his brother died of Covid 19, and his mum, who has lung cancer, has had to sit in a room for the last months of her life, and he can't even take her out for a walk without pathetic morons like you glaring or making ignorant remarks at him. I've seen people crying because they are having to rely on handouts to feed their children while the schools were closed.

THe only thing I learn about people who make posts like this is that you have absolutely feck all idea how difficult this situation is for a lot of people. You sit there making judgements about people as if the situation is piss easy for everyone. Many have lost loved ones and not even been able to see them, had to make horrible sacrifices or choices where there frankly is no right decision. And then they get to contend with being called "irresponsible" by a government who has done nothing since March apart from feck them about. It's taken a campaign from a footballer for children to be fed, during a pandemic. It's taken the red cross getting involved to help people in need in this country. It's taken us getting to a point where we were guaranteed tens of thousands of deaths before the government even bothered to do anything at all. And you think the biggest problem in this country is "people like me" who have been running themselves into the ground to try and help. Why don't you go spit at an ambulance while you're at it?

The last time I say this because frankly go feck yourself, but DO NOT JUDGE PEOPLE WHO YOU KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT. I can absolutely guarantee just from the sheer ignorance of your post that I've done 100x more to help people during this pandemic than you have or will ever bother to. You're an idiot.
 

11101

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That will be up to their home country. They won’t stop them coming home will probably insist on 14 days quarantine on arrival. At least I’m hoping they will do in Ireland anyway (despite the border making life way more complicated than it should be)
That's been the case for a while - 14 day quarantine from the UK. I think they will change it to allow freight and returning residents only. No business or tourism travel whatsoever allowed, which is really how it should be.

Having said that, catching a ferry across the channel a couple of weeks ago you would think the truckers in the cafe didnt know there was any virus at all.
 

Balljy

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Hence my scepticism that a huge surge this month is a property of the virus!
Agreed, my local supermarket is unusable at the moment due to a lack of social distancing and noticeable relaxation in behaviour over the last 6 weeks. I'm also beginning to see more people storm in with shoulders wide wearing no mask as they look to spout vitriol if anybody challenges them.

If the new variant is more infectious it can only be in tandem to what I'm seeing rather than the only explanation. Also, if it really is a lot more infectious I will be interested to see the mortality rate of it as one of the reasons for more infections may be less obvious symptoms leading to more people out and about with it as they have no symptoms to force a test. This in-turn may mean a less dangerous, but more infectious variant.

That's purely guess-work, but infectiveness will be high for a reason and as long as people are reporting symptoms they should not be putting themselves in a situation where they can pass it on which possibly suggests a change in symptoms.
 

Pogue Mahone

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That's been the case for a while - 14 day quarantine from the UK. I think they will change it to allow freight and returning residents only. No business or tourism travel whatsoever allowed, which is really how it should be.

Having said that, catching a ferry across the channel a couple of weeks ago you would think the truckers in the cafe didnt know there was any virus at all.
It’s beyond infuriating when you see people who just don’t give a shit when everyone else is making sacrifices. Didn’t think it was possible but the week that’s in it has made selfish covidiots even more annoying than usual.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Good summary in Science on the new variant.

Pretty balanced article. I can see the reason for concern and I think it is appropriate to be cautious and act now. Need lab experiments to be sure, but that will take month.
I’ve heard medics speculating that this originated in a single, very sick, patient. Someone who was immune compromised and getting mega doses of monoclonal Ab’s and/or convalescence plasma, which gave the virus ideal conditions for accelerated evolution. One big learning from this might be to take isolation and PPE much more seriously in immune compromised patients. Kind of blows the mind that this new strain might have got out from a hospital into the community, rather than the other way round.