SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Penna]

But there’s no hidden pockets that could possibly be isolated from the virus for any appreciable amount of time, is there? Even here, with vast stretches of isolation, the virus is everywhere; there’s not a location that is spared. Just cannot fathom that a place exists in England (or any part of the UK) that could hold out.

The virus is everywhere in England, too. It's just that the demographics of some places make it likely to spread far more rapidly. My hometown is a small seaside town which is packed in the summer but not in the winter. It also has a high percentage of older people who will be far less likely to be going out. Only 15 miles away there's the big city of Liverpool with a completely different demographic - a city people commute to every day, many more young people, loads of students and more poverty.

 

[LARulz]

Depends on how long it takes to even take hold of other countries, spread wildly and then the lag of deaths, that's 3-4 months.

You also have to take into account the vast majority of deaths are over 65. A good amount or nearly all could be vaccinated by that time or at least the most vulnerable in that category.

Why would it take 3-4 months? A lot of countries are seeing big spikes already and are now playing catch up with the strain they didn't know existed till a few weeks ago.

Also again, I think, even if it did take 3-4 months. Look how slow the rollout is in many of these other countries and they all have a supply problem, they are all in a queue to receive it. For once we seem to have an advantage with this Oxford one - ordered in bulk first, approved it first and made here

 

[calodo2003]

As it not popular for politicians to say there is a new national lockdown so the idea could be to
- say the situation is critical in some parts of the country, condition public opinion and then apply the same rules to the whole country; or
- apply a form of national lockdown at 75% from a geographical standpoint

Also, a sophisticated tier system look very serious. If you apply the same rules for the whole country, then some will argue this countryside is safe, etc.

The key point is that it is easier to sell a hybrid national lockdown. France for instance will say there is a curfew from 6pm to 6am in some geographical areas

But, what are the current punitive measures for breaking lockdown? If none, what’s to fuel the selfishness of people to populate those less-restricted areas?

We’re past the point of worrying about ‘selling a lockdown’ to the selfish masses. If these lockdowns aren’t punitive in measure, especially financially to lockdown breakers, the government is going to keep perpetuating the problem. This is where I blame the government. We are right now, at this point in time, suffering from the selfishness of others (well, y’all are in the UK in this case, we are just suffering from not having a federal government response to covid at the present). Governments failed early on by not being tough enough & waffling after, bookended by an apparent measure that probably won’t be strict enough again. But, this current spike on a spike in most worldwide countries shows that people cannot be trusted to do what’s best for the common good, wherever they live. If governments fail again by being too weak, the problem only gets exacerbated.

 

[calodo2003]

The virus is everywhere in England, too. It's just that the demographics of some places make it likely to spread far more rapidly. My hometown is a small seaside town which is packed in the summer but not in the winter. It also has a high percentage of older people who will be far less likely to be going out. Only 15 miles away there's the big city of Liverpool with a completely different demographic - a city people commute to every day, many more young people, loads of students and more poverty.

That’s what I mean. Your hometown is only twenty minutes away from a bustling metropolis. It’s a little Pollyannaish at this point to think that, even in the dead of winter, that Liverpool wouldn’t have any negative viral impact on a town that could be considered a suburb due to proximity.

Unless a true lockdown with punitive measures is actually enforced.

 

[Mickeza]

“Schools are safe. The issue is the mix of different households that take place in schools.” - That’s some yes minister level satire from Boris there.

 

[calodo2003]

Depends on how long it takes to even take hold of other countries, spread wildly and then the lag of deaths, that's 3-4 months.

You also have to take into account the vast majority of deaths are over 65. A good amount or nearly all could be vaccinated by that time or at least the most vulnerable in that category.

You are vastly overrating how the vaccination progress is progressing. There will be few places on earth that will hit their vaccination timing projections. It’s not as simple as churning out new vials, that could ultimately be one of the easiest steps in the process. It’s the steps & machinations that start immediately after the vaccines are produced that will be the true culprit in how slow the mass vaccinations will progress. Reality sets in. Hell, I can’t wait til we hear about the first terrorist attack on a step of the vaccination process, these should start any week now.

It’s going to be unhealthy mentally to continue to count on vaccinations.

 

[Heardy]

“Schools are safe. The issue is the mix of different households that take place in schools.” - That’s some yes minister level satire from Boris there.

Absolutely ridiculous statement. It’s not like we think it’s the building that’s unsafe - it’s the school environment and inevitable mixing.

Almost as annoying as JVT when he equated to a vaccinated pensioner wishing to hug their grandchildren to wanting to act with wild abandon

 

[Berbaclass]

“We hope things are better by Easter”

That’s fecking April

 

[Ecstatic]

But, what are the current punitive measures for breaking lockdown? If none, what’s to fuel the selfishness of people to populate those less-restricted areas?

We’re past the point of worrying about ‘selling a lockdown’ to the selfish masses. If these lockdowns aren’t punitive in measure, especially financially to lockdown breakers, the government is going to keep perpetuating the problem. This is where I blame the government. We are right now, at this point in time, suffering from the selfishness of others (well, y’all are in the UK in this case, we are just suffering from not having a federal government response to covid at the present). Governments failed early on by not being tough enough & waffling after, bookended by an apparent measure that probably won’t be strict enough again. But, this current spike on a spike in most worldwide countries shows that people cannot be trusted to do what’s best for the common good, wherever they live. If governments fail again by being too weak, the problem only gets exacerbated.

In the UK, it seems relatively easy to travel, break lockdown without being punished, unless you organize a very noisy big party. I don't think there is a lot of fined people. Not mandatory to wear masks outside unless I am mistaken.

In France, the police does the job with more that 1 million of fines during the same period

 

[acnumber9]

Hell, I can’t wait til we hear about the first terrorist attack on a step of the vaccination process, these should start any week now.

It’s going to be unhealthy mentally to continue to count on vaccinations.

Yes, we should definitely adopt your healthy approach to this.

 

[redshaw]

Why would it take 3-4 months? A lot of countries are seeing big spikes already and are now playing catch up with the strain they didn't know existed till a few weeks ago.

Also again, I think, even if it did take 3-4 months. Look how slow the rollout is in many of these other countries and they all have a supply problem, they are all in a queue to receive it. For once we seem to have an advantage with this Oxford one - ordered in bulk first, approved it first and made here

I'm not seeing any large spikes in France Belgium or Italy yet, just normal activity, you will see normal rises from existing strains from Christmas. Why it takes that long is it has to become the dominant strain first, that took a while here, then it has to spread wildly for a few weeks, then around 3-4 weeks after that the deaths start mounting up. That's if it becomes the dominant strain in many said countries even, we won't know if this is ripping through France or Belgium for a long while yet. UK from the south east and beyond is an inferno right now.

They can also know what to look for and can put extra tracing effort into any UK strain found plus bans on travel already in place to minimize new entrants.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

“We hope things are better by Easter”

That’s fecking April

Just in time for me to do my gardening.

 

[Penna]

That’s what I mean. Your hometown is only twenty minutes away from a bustling metropolis. It’s a little Pollyannaish at this point to think that, even in the dead of winter, that Liverpool wouldn’t have any negative viral impact on a town that could be considered a suburb due to proximity.

Unless a true lockdown with punitive measures is actually enforced.

Well, we don't live there for more than about a month a year now, so I don't know how it feels "on the ground" - but I do agree with your point about very tough restrictions and enforcement, having experienced that in Italy. The enforcement won't happen though, because the police don't work that way in England (and there aren't enough of them).

We're going back into another 4-day complete nationwide lockdown tomorrow, and there will be another one on the 5th and 6th Jan because that's another holiday. It's miserable seeing everything closed, but at least no-one's socialising outside their homes (there are a lot of police cars, though).

 

[Pink Moon]

“We hope things are better by Easter”

That’s fecking April

I'm sure I've heard the old "we hope things will be better by [insert random date here]" before. It was BS then and it's BS now.

 

[Brwned]

Absolutely ridiculous statement. It’s not like we think it’s the building that’s unsafe - it’s the school environment and inevitable mixing.

Almost as annoying as JVT when he equated to a vaccinated pensioner wishing to hug their grandchildren to wanting to act with wild abandon

The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.

 

[Mickeza]

The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.

Different households mixing is part of the school environment...that’s what school is.

 

[calodo2003]

In the UK, it seems relatively easy to travel, break lockdown without being punished, unless you organize a very noisy big party. I don't think there is a lot of fined people. Not mandatory to wear masks outside unless I am mistaken.

In France, the police does the job with more that 1 million of fines during the same period

What are the punishment amounts?

 

[Heardy]

The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.

The building is a shell so take that out of the equation. It’s the mixing that necessitates a school to run which causes the issue. The teachers can only do so much, but kids being in school and travelling to / from in vast numbers in close proximity is bound to cause issues.

 

[Balljy]

What are the punishment amounts?

Between £200 and £10,000 depending on the severity.

You can also be taken to court for higher fines if necessary.

 

[calodo2003]

Yes, we should definitely adopt your healthy approach to this.

Why believe a fairytale? Why not believe realities on the ground, especially as they are happening? Why not remain founded in reality? Sure, positive thoughts help, but actual realities on the ground everywhere are starting to poke holes in this line of thought.

It’s this kind of fairytale mentality that will create even more of a spike on top of the current morass in which we find ourselves.

 

[calodo2003]

Between £200 and £10,000 depending on the severity.

Are they tied in with other restrictions? In the states, for example, not paying child support will get your driver’s license taken away. Are other liberties targeted if the fines aren’t paid? It might need to be more than financial punishments to make people understand.

 

[Ananke]

I'm sure I've heard the old "we hope things will be better by [insert random date here]" before. It was BS then and it's BS now.

We heard it at the start, mentioning things will be better by summer. Then in August/September, things will be better by Christmas. And now, yeh things will be better by April.

I get this is a new threat, things change. At the start of this ordeal you could give the government the benefit of the doubt, but come on....we’re not far off a year of this now. Rules are so wishy washy, this place can stay open but this place can’t. This area is in tier 2, but this other one is tier 4. And their explanations for doing so are so flawed.

Got Dominic Cummings testing his eyesight with a trip in his car, Matt Hancock crying on TV and Boris Johnson bumbling out bollocks every time he gives an announcement. It’s so embarrassing.

 

[Ecstatic]

Are they tied in with other restrictions? In the states, for example, not paying child support will get your driver’s license taken away. Are other liberties targeted if the fines aren’t paid? It might need to be more than financial punishments to make people understand.

No

 

[calodo2003]

Further on the congressman who died of covid. He apparently was an ‘all businesses should be open with no restrictions at all, all schools should be open with no restrictions at all, society should be open with no restrictions at all’ trumpeter as well...

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[calodo2003]

No

That’s going to be a potential key issue when this entire abortion is viewed through the lens of history.

 

[Brwned]

The building is a shell so take that out of the equation. It’s the mixing that necessitates a school to run which causes the issue. The teachers can only do so much, but kids being in school and travelling to / from in vast numbers in close proximity is bound to cause issues.

I’m just saying that last point you’re making - the thing that is bound to cause issues - there have been scientific studies into that part of the school environment and they didn’t find conclusive evidence of those issues, which is what governments have consistently pointed to when defending their decision. They’ve been shared in this thread going all the way back to the summer, from different countries.

Whether governments are using that as political cover, whether those scientific studies are accurate, whether we should even rely on science instead of what is considered common sense - reasonable people can disagree. I’m not saying your position is wrong. I’m just clarifying that their position on the safety of schools is different because they differ mostly on that specific point. They agree with you that household mixing in general is a risk factor, they disagree on that secondary risk.

 

[acnumber9]

Why believe a fairytale? Why not believe realities on the ground, especially as they are happening? Why not remain founded in reality? Sure, positive thoughts help, but actual realities on the ground everywhere are starting to poke holes in this line of thought.

It’s this kind of fairytale mentality that will create even more of a spike on top of the current morass in which we find ourselves.

Believing terrorist attacks are inevitable is basing yourself in reality? You’re comfortably the most miserable person in this thread and that ain’t healthy.

 

[Tibs]

Good that more areas in T4.

Don't understand why Leeds hasn't, when all that will happen is more people will pile in there.

Our lockdowns are too soft, discipline non-existent for rule breakers and no punishment.

But, glad more places are in. My brother works in the NHS, and it sounds like we will be in a disaster in the next week.

 

[Heardy]

I’m just saying that last point you’re making - the thing that is bound to cause issues - there have been scientific studies into that part of the school environment and they didn’t find conclusive evidence of those issues, which is what governments have consistently pointed to when defending their decision. They’ve been shared in this thread going all the way back to the summer, from different countries.

Whether governments are using that as political cover, whether those scientific studies are accurate, whether we should even rely on science instead of what is considered common sense - reasonable people can disagree. I’m not saying your position is wrong. I’m just clarifying that their position on the safety of schools is different because they differ mostly on that specific point. They agree with you that household mixing in general is a risk factor, they disagree on that secondary risk.

Fair point mate, you could well be right, I’ve not read enough of the science behind it to argue otherwise.

 

[calodo2003]

Believing terrorist attacks are inevitable is basing yourself in reality? You’re comfortably the most miserable person in this thread and that ain’t healthy.

Hmmm. We just had a terrorist attack in my country due to 5G & lizard people in government. You think that the supply chain of the vaccinations isn’t a ripe, soft target, especially when the vaccines are finally available for the masses? You think the ilk that wants to murder Democratic governors in my country & destroy power grids won’t see this as a viable window of opportunity, especially when their psychosis of Bill Gates wanting time depopulate then world really gets tweaked? You think this mindset exists only in the backwoods of my country?

It’s not unhealthy to posit potential logical outcomes, no matter how dark they may be.

 

[acnumber9]

Hmmm. We just had a terrorist attack in my country due to 5G & lizard people in government. You think that the supply chain of the vaccinations isn’t a ripe, soft target, especially when the vaccines are finally available for the masses? You think the ilk that wants to murder Democratic governors in my country & destroy power grids won’t see this as a viable window of opportunity, especially when their psychosis of Bill Gates wanting time depopulate then world really gets tweaked? You think this mindset exists only in the backwoods of my country?

It’s not unhealthy to posit potential logical outcomes, no matter how dark they may be.

Expecting not one, but several terrorist attacks on vaccine supply chains is bad enough. Saying you are looking forward to it is weird as feck. Why? So you can be proved right that vaccines aren’t our saving grace? You are a weird one. And most definitely not thinking healthily.

 

[acnumber9]

Fair point mate, you could well be right, I’ve not read enough of the science behind it to argue otherwise.

The general secretary of the education board would disagree. Apparently the Government won’t share the scientific evidence with them despite requesting it.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news...allow-for-covid-testing-preparations-12175635

 

[One Night Only]

Further on the congressman who died of covid. He apparently was an ‘all businesses should be open with no restrictions at all, all schools should be open with no restrictions at all, society should be open with no restrictions at all’ trumpeter as well...

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Anything which starts, ends with, or even has "let this/that sink in" is some of the most ridiculously annoying shit ever.

Dude was clearly a bit dim mind.

 

[Ecstatic]

How much is the fine in France?

135 euros the 1st fine,
200 euros the 2nd,
3,750 euros the 3rd

 

[rcoobc]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Wilt]

135 euros the 1st fine,
200 euros the 2nd,
3,750 euros the 3rd

They should be fining more people here, a lot just don’t seem to care

 

[Ecstatic]

They should be fining more people here, a lot just don’t seem to care

• Belgium: €250 for individuals, €750 for businesses; government lawsuit for nonpayment
• England: Up to £200 for the first offense and up to £6,400 for repeat offenders
• France: €135 fine for breaking nighttime curfew, up to €3,750 for repeat offenders
• Italy: €400-€1,000 fine for not wearing a face mask (almost always required inside and outside)
• Netherlands: €95 fine for individuals not wearing masks and groups of people not keeping distance
• Spain: €100 for not wearing mask; €600 to €600,000 for violating other national restrictions

 

[calodo2003]

Expecting not one, but several terrorist attacks on vaccine supply chains is bad enough. Saying you are looking forward to it is weird as feck. Why? So you can be proved right that vaccines aren’t our saving grace? You are a weird one. And most definitely not thinking healthily.

‘Looking forward you...’ implied heavy sarcasm on my part. Apologies if you truly thought I was advocating for it & hoping it would happen & didn’t catch my sarcasm.

 

[acnumber9]

‘Looking forward you...’ implied heavy sarcasm on my part. Apologies if you truly thought I was advocating for it & hoping it would happen & didn’t catch my sarcasm.

I don’t know, you seem to revel in the misery of it all.

 

[Wilt]

• Belgium: €250 for individuals, €750 for businesses; government lawsuit for nonpayment
• England: Up to £200 for the first offense and up to £6,400 for repeat offenders
• France: €135 fine for breaking nighttime curfew, up to €3,750 for repeat offenders
• Italy: €400-€1,000 fine for not wearing a face mask (almost always required inside and outside)
• Netherlands: €95 fine for individuals not wearing masks and groups of people not keeping distance
• Spain: €100 for not wearing mask; €600 to €600,000 for violating other national restrictions

Spain ! I‘d love to see someone’s face when they get handed a €600,000 fine