SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

golden_blunder

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lynchie

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Well this fecking sucks. I cannot stress enough what an unbearable fecking pain in the hoop the cocking UK variant has been in this pandemic. Makes the previous version seem positively benign.
I'd be wary until its been reviewed - her posting record is pretty 1-dimensional. I'm not sure why a complex model that matches the Imperial data is very useful, considering the people who wrote the Imperial paper acknowledged that their data was very much affected by the lockdown at the time.
 

jojojo

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The 0.05% figure started as viral misinformation on social media (mainly facebook) - big part is nobody really knows if its referring to infection fatality rate or case fatality rate
Has been fact checked several times though
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...stimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/
https://www.capradio.org/articles/2...ook-posts-mislead-on-covid-19-mortality-rate/
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-9243914747

This has been pointed out many times to those bringing the 0.05% figure up to prove where they got it from, any CDC link or graph or data that backs it up. And we got nothing.
The source of the initial headline tweetables all seem to head back to this paper which is linked to on the WHO site:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3.full.pdf
Which was an early study based on a limited set of antibody estimated infection rates and recorded deaths. It's got big error bars on the data, and some pretty wide estimated ranges between countries/datasets.

The current CDC planning estimate is 0.05% in the 18-49 age group, 0.6% in the 50-64's and 9% in the over 65s (with that 9% masking big differences between men and women and as age rises).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

In terms of actual UK data that ignores how many people have been infected but looking at the total population of the UK instead, around 0.2% of the UK population have died.

Breaking that down further:
Around 0.26% of the adult population have died, with the number of people estimated to have had covid running at below 20% that would suggest an overall adult IFR of above 1%.
It looks like it has already killed around 1% of the over 65s.
And around 15,000 x 15-64 year olds, mostly male and mostly in the 45-64 group - which means that actual deaths are running at around 0.04% in the working age population, which could turn into something far worse if more of the population did get infected.

So yeah, the 0.05 figure is basically a percentage that's been cherry picked from estimates which only relates to 18-49 year olds in a situation where they do have access to medical care (including oxygen support) and the hospital services aren't overwhelmed by dealing with the over 50s etc.

The JCVI's vaccination priority list has been more or less driven by that demographic data. What the conspiracy theorists use of the 0.05% thing is driven by - I don't know - maybe dislike/indifference towards parents, grandparents, cancer patients and people with disabilities? Maybe they just don't like the maths, and they'd rather imagine a global conspiracy to stop them going to the pub.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I'd be wary until its been reviewed - her posting record is pretty 1-dimensional. I'm not sure why a complex model that matches the Imperial data is very useful, considering the people who wrote the Imperial paper acknowledged that their data was very much affected by the lockdown at the time.
Aye. Fair enough.

And here’s the counter-argument.


US data but compelling all the same.

Can’t believe I’m spending all morning on Twitter after avoiding it for ages. I’m going to be in a shit mood later...
 

One Night Only

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The 0.05% figure started as viral misinformation on social media (mainly facebook) - big part is nobody really knows if its referring to infection fatality rate or case fatality rate
Has been fact checked several times though
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...stimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/
https://www.capradio.org/articles/2...ook-posts-mislead-on-covid-19-mortality-rate/
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-9243914747

This has been pointed out many times to those bringing the 0.05% figure up to prove where they got it from, any CDC link or graph or data that backs it up. And we got nothing.
I like his "I provided you facts" then his rambling on. Reminds me of a certain Liverpool managers slippery slope.
 

Wibble

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I was trying to indulge, and survived through the first minute of "died with Covid or from Covid" old bullshit. But then he starts talking about PCR, and anyone who knows a bit about this clearly understand he knows feck all of what he's talking about. Then I question, why, a year later, are you still listening to people like this? What are his credentials? He's picking up numbers from PCR (which might be generally true) to make inane points. When he gets to the phase of correlating PCR cycles with how sick you are (immediately before the 03:00 minute mark, which was when I couldn't watch any longer) he just shows he's a massive ignorant on the subject. I've been studying basic medical sciences for 20 years of my life (out of pure joy, at the expense of being, in relative terms, quite ignorant at clinical sciences). If you want proof that I'm not a recent enthusiast, you can wonder why I, as a doctor, was writing posts like this in a football forum 8 years ago. I love and care for this stuff. https://www.redcafe.net/threads/the-random-chat-thread.363091/page-140#post-12880926 The guy you're listening to knows nothing about biology other than what he learned in the last year because it became a popular theme. People like me can tell in an instant who knows their game in these themes or who doesn't. It's plain plain obvious.

Imagine you sitting down with someone like my girlfriend, who hates football, probably never watched a full game, but knows basic math. And she starts arguing with you that a given random player must have played better than the one who was almost unanimously considered MOTM by fans by throwing at you random numbers like he touched the ball x times or was only fouled y times... Imagine how wasteful discussing that would look to you, and how you would dismiss her arguments as soon as you, as a football fan, realized that she had no basic understanding of the game... It may seem a trivial example, but the point I'm making is rather simple, you only need abstraction capacity to understand it.

That's kind of how I feel when I listen to a guy like that. Now of course, if after one year of this crap you're still trying to learn about Covid by listening to Joe Rogan show, people will call out your ignorance.

There certainly are not important bits about PCR testing in there. It's an ignorant spewing numbers that seem to make sense to an ignorant audience. Why you would chose an Economic analyst (and a politically biased one) to teach you about Covid is the part that makes you seem like a lost case. You are looking for people to validate your formed conclusions, not really trying to learn or "ask questions" about the subject.
Yes, but YouTube said 0.05%. You need to educate yourself ;)
 

Wibble

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Aye. Fair enough.

And here’s the counter-argument.


US data but compelling all the same.

Can’t believe I’m spending all morning on Twitter after avoiding it for ages. I’m going to be in a shit mood later...
The same demographic suffer the most economically the more covid you have and have the worst health outcomes. Special educational interventions would help address the issue rather than increasing infections to try to solve the educational issue of the restrictions.
 

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I can't speak for every government but I know in Canada, we have a socialist leader who's actions during covid are making our country more and more into a socialist country. He's using covid as an excuse to push out his socialist ideals and that's the part that bothers me... the fact that covid is now becoming politicized.
Trudeau and the canadian government socialists! truly some north americans need to look into simple political definitions, because Trudeau is way far from a socialist spectrum
 

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Aye. Fair enough.

And here’s the counter-argument.


US data but compelling all the same.

Can’t believe I’m spending all morning on Twitter after avoiding it for ages. I’m going to be in a shit mood later...
This is pure speculative/qualitative - but aren't the poorest kids also likely to be living in a household which is more likely to have poor covid outcomes?

So aren't poor people just screwed either way. Highest risk of being left behind academically, highest risk of losing a close family member. I guess it's for the govt to then decide which of those two will have the smaller impact long-term
 

Pogue Mahone

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The same demographic suffer the most economically the more covid you have and have the worst health outcomes. Special educational interventions would help address the issue rather than increasing infections to try to solve the educational issue of the restrictions.
Such as? We know they’re not engaging with online learning and sending teachers or teacher’s assistants to visit every home in the country would a) require an insane amount of personnel/resources and b) cause more infections than keeping schools open.
 
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Wibble

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Such as? We know they’re not engaging with online learning and sending teachers or teacher’s assistants to visit every home in the country would a) require an insane amount of personnel/resources and b) cause more infections than keeping schools open.
Some renediation will have to wait until the kids return to school, funding schools properly might also be a start. And there is lots you can do with online learning. What we are doing isn't really online learning as it is mainly just another way of delivering notes to kids who aren't in school. True online learning is very different from what we are doing but requires educational development that has to be funded and funding of Learning Management and other associated systems and services. Another thing we haven't really done is use SME'S to deliver online across schools - this has huge potential as it avoids those situations where gaps are filled by teachers with the wrong skills. As an example in my last teaching role I never taught biology (my speciality) but did teach quite a bit of RE which was a challenge.

And targeted remedial tutoring is dooable. There is a scheme being trialled with initially great results going on at the moment in Victoria. Judging current pandemic school online learning as is is like saying you hate pizza only having tried Domino's.

All takes money of course.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Some renediation will have to wait until the kids return to school, funding schools properly might also be a start. And there is lots you can do with online learning. What we are doing isn't really online learning as it is mainly just another way of delivering notes to kids who aren't in school. True online learning is very different from what we are doing but requires educational development that has to be funded and funding of Learning Management and other associated systems and services. Another thing we haven't really done is use SME'S to deliver online across schools - this has huge potential as it avoids those situations where gaps are filled by teachers with the wrong skills. As an example in my last teaching role I never taught biology (my speciality) but did teach quite a bit of RE which was a challenge.

And targeted remedial tutoring is dooable. There is a scheme being trialled with initially great results going on at the moment in Victoria. Judging current pandemic school online learning as is is like saying you hate pizza only having tried Domino's.

All takes money of course.
And time. A lot time. While with each week these kids are kept out of school they fall further and further behind.

And that’s only considering the academic value of school which, as a teacher, you’ll know is only a small part of the value it provides. Especially for younger kids or only children. At a time when they’re not supposed to be interacting with other kids in any other context. And for the most underprivileged going to school can give them a break from dysfunctional circumstances at home.
 

golden_blunder

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Such as? We know they’re not engaging with online learning and sending teachers or teacher’s assistants to visit every home in the country would a) require an insane amount of personnel/resources and b) cause more infections than keeping schools open.
They are happening actually but not sure what amount, I guess small. They are going to homes where the kid cannot come into school such as ones that would attend a special education class . The parents might feel it’s too risky or the child may feel anxious or worried. Staff are going out to those. I dunno how they work it though as I’m sure it’s not every school

our school is doing online learning as long as they have staff at home. They still have to work even if they can’t come into school, because they might be pregnant for example. Medical high risk were ordered back in by the dept last week
 

golden_blunder

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And time. A lot time. While with each week these kids are kept out of school they fall further and further behind.

And that’s only considering the academic value of school which, as a teacher, you’ll know is only a small part of the value it provides. Especially for younger kids or only children. At a time when they’re not supposed to be interacting with other kids in any other context. And for the most underprivileged going to school can give them a break from dysfunctional circumstances at home.
It all comes down to the parents too. I guarantee you our kids are ahead of where they’d be if they were in their usual classes. My youngest one can read a little above his age range and write a little. That only happened in lockdown.

my other kid has got better at some stuff too.

that being said it’s only because of the level we have given to them. Not all parents can do the same (sadly). I will also start a new job soon wherein I will probably not have a lot of spare time soon.
 

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It all comes down to the parents too. I guarantee you our kids are ahead of where they’d be if they were in their usual classes. My youngest one can read a little above his age range and write a little. That only happened in lockdown.

my other kid has got better at some stuff too.

that being said it’s only because of the level we have given to them. Not all parents can do the same (sadly). I will also start a new job soon wherein I will probably not have a lot of spare time soon.
We have spent half the pandemic in Cambodia and more recently back in the UK, hands down the online learning offered by the school in Cambodia was superior t what we've experienced in the UK. Like most parents who have the time, we have spent alot of time with the children while they've been online learning and in Cambodia our children progressed, back home in the UK at best they have stagnated and at worst they have regressed.

The standard of online learning offered here (in the small sample size I have experienced in Bristol) has been shocking in comparison.
 

Pogue Mahone

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It all comes down to the parents too. I guarantee you our kids are ahead of where they’d be if they were in their usual classes. My youngest one can read a little above his age range and write a little. That only happened in lockdown.

my other kid has got better at some stuff too.

that being said it’s only because of the level we have given to them. Not all parents can do the same (sadly). I will also start a new job soon wherein I will probably not have a lot of spare time soon.
Fair play to you geebs but that’s exactly what I’m getting at.

When well educated parents have the commitment and free time to step up the kids will be ok (ideally, you’d also need their folks to be willing to break some rules to find a way to get their kids some social interactions too - especially for children without siblings near their age).

Some might even benefit from the extra one to one teaching, as yours have. My youngest has definitely made more progress in maths at home than at school. All this means, though, is that the kids whose parents don’t tick those boxes will fall further and further behind.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Fair play to you geebs but that’s exactly what I’m getting at.

When well educated parents have the commitment and free time to step up the kids will be ok (ideally, you’d also need their folks to be willing to break some rules to find a way to get their kids some social interactions too - especially for children without siblings near their age).

Some might even benefit from the extra one to one teaching, as yours have. My youngest has definitely made more progress in maths at home than at school. All this means, though, is that the kids whose parents don’t tick those boxes will fall further and further behind.
Its been the opposite with me, working full time from home covering three different people and trying to homeschool as a single parent has been the toughest twelve months I can recall, thankfully her school have been absolutely brilliant, they are doing after school catch up sessions for those who have struggled, and she is really throwing herself into it, so hopefully the damage can be undone :(
 

Pogue Mahone

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Its been the opposite with me, working full time from home covering three different people and trying to homeschool as a single parent has been the toughest twelve months I can recall, thankfully her school have been absolutely brilliant, they are doing after school catch up sessions for those who have struggled, and she is really throwing herself into it, so hopefully the damage can be undone :(
Sounds like you’ve reared a great kid. With that attitude she’ll go far. Unfortunately not many children will share her drive and will be seriously disadvantaged if their parents (or parent) have gone through a similar 12 months to you.
 

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The delayed timing of the UK variant has really screwed mainland Europe where most countries finally "kind of" controlled their second wave and immidiately cases rose again due to the new variant
It`s clear to me that the fight against Covid on a political and social level is completely lost and the vaccines are (and will) be the only solution. Which is an embarassing admission because I still believe covid could have been contained even without a vaccine but neoliberalism is so engrained in our society and in our politics it`s just a lost cause. Even now, with Germany announcing its "hardest lockdown so far for Eastern" or something like that the only actions are once again interventions in personal freedoms while work places and industrial business remain untouched. No testing strategy, no legislative means to stop employers forcing their people to come in 20+ people offices or indoor work places but instead random curfews and the same message from a year ago "stay at home stay at home stay at home".

The pandemic really has shown what poison nationalism and neoliberalism are but I doubt we`ll learn lessons from it.
 

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And time. A lot time. While with each week these kids are kept out of school they fall further and further behind.

And that’s only considering the academic value of school which, as a teacher, you’ll know is only a small part of the value it provides. Especially for younger kids or only children. At a time when they’re not supposed to be interacting with other kids in any other context. And for the most underprivileged going to school can give them a break from dysfunctional circumstances at home.
I agree but in a pandemic you need to prioritise the lesser of many evils. I also not comfortable forcing unvaccinsted teachers back to work.

Except for A level students, who may have Uni places riding on their performance, I'd not be too bothered about the academic loss. Kids learn so little per year catching up shouldn't be too hard.

The social is harder but here kids living in socially disadvantaged conditions and kids of essential workers were allowed back to school when most kids were still at home.
 

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Am I really just reading Germany have reversed their decision to have another lockdown less than 24 hours after announcing it? What a shambles. Imagine if Boris had done this. If seems Europe is really panicking at the moment. I hope they get things settled ASAP.
 

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Am I really just reading Germany have reversed their decision to have another lockdown less than 24 hours after announcing it? What a shambles. Imagine if Boris had done this. If seems Europe is really panicking at the moment. I hope they get things settled ASAP.
They wanted to extend the easter holidays by a couple of days (in between) to effectively have a 5 day period with everything shut down. They decided on that yesterday and reversed their decision today. It is a shambles but not much changed regarding lockdown otherwise.
 

TheReligion

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They wanted to extend the easter holidays by a couple of days (in between) to effectively have a 5 day period with everything shut down. They decided on that yesterday and reversed their decision today. It is a shambles but not much changed regarding lockdown otherwise.
I'm quite surprised by Germany in this regard. Indecisive and making hasty decisions without doing the work before hand to check it was viable.
 

Abizzz

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I'm quite surprised by Germany in this regard. Indecisive and making hasty decisions without doing the work before hand to check it was viable.
Theres been a spike these past weeks that they didn't expect, i'm not sure how much work beforehand was to be done. It's all terribly politically though because health is a state issue, so the federal government can't do much by itself, and the individual states have very different opinions, so any nationwide decision is always some sort of compromise. This one sucked :lol:
 

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Theres been a spike these past weeks that they didn't expect, i'm not sure how much work beforehand was to be done. It's all terribly politically though because health is a state issue, so the federal government can't do much by itself, and the individual states have very different opinions, so any nationwide decision is always some sort of compromise. This one sucked :lol:
I think most of Europe should be in a tight lockdown whilst they get their people vaccinated. It seems the UK model is the way to go on this looking at the numbers.
 

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I think most of Europe should be in a tight lockdown whilst they get their people vaccinated. It seems the UK model is the way to go on this looking at the numbers.
I don't know, it's been to long to end normal life because of it, and I'm a very wary and careful person. Last year I didn't see my parents for 3 months despite them only being some 40 miles away (due to a closed border between us). My niece started school last fall and she's had like 2 months of schooling until now? We can't go on like that for another year if vaccinating will take that long. Going the UK/US route and strictly importing vaccines might be the only way to speed it up, but I can't currently see the entire EU agreeing to that (and am unsure if i'd want it).
 

TheReligion

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I don't know, it's been to long to end normal life because of it, and I'm a very wary and careful person. Last year I didn't see my parents for 3 months despite them only being some 40 miles away (due to a closed border between us). My niece started school last fall and she's had like 2 months of schooling until now? We can't go on like that for another year if vaccinating will take that long. Going the UK/US route and strictly importing vaccines might be the only way to speed it up, but I can't currently see the entire EU agreeing to that (and am unsure if i'd want it).
Where abouts are you?
 

TheReligion

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Ah right I had no idea!

Well I hope things start picking up for you real soon. It's felt nice in the UK to have some positivity with things and I'm certain you will have some soon yourself. Would be great if we can all travel again soon and enjoy the football this summer together.
 

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I'm quite surprised by Germany in this regard. Indecisive and making hasty decisions without doing the work before hand to check it was viable.
That can happen when you get sideswiped by a new, much more contagious variant that developed in a country where the virus was allowed to spread freely without adequate lockdown measures. Which we’ve seen in places with large swathes of underprivileged people living in slums. Such as Brazil, South Africa or Kent.
 

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That can happen when you get sideswiped by a new, much more contagious variant that developed in a country where the virus was allowed to spread freely without adequate lockdown measures. Which we’ve seen in places with large swathes of underprivileged people living in slums. Such as Brazil, South Africa or Kent.
oi!
 

Abizzz

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Ah right I had no idea!

Well I hope things start picking up for you real soon. It's felt nice in the UK to have some positivity with things and I'm certain you will have some soon yourself. Would be great if we can all travel again soon and enjoy the football this summer together.
Thanks! I'm happy to see the UK getting into better shape now, it's proof positive to everyone that vaccination works and will benefit us all in the long term. I don't think we'll have mass travelling and thousands of fans for the Euros though but I'd be very happy if I'm wrong!


(The only other time I've revealed where I'm at was my first post after promotion so I can't blame you for having no idea ;). I'm a proud citizen of nowhere and a circumstantial one of the US and Germany)
 
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Pagh Wraith

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Am I really just reading Germany have reversed their decision to have another lockdown less than 24 hours after announcing it? What a shambles. Imagine if Boris had done this. If seems Europe is really panicking at the moment. I hope they get things settled ASAP.
They realised they can't just make up new rules at 3 a.m. (such as closing the supermarkets) and get away with it. I'll give Merkel some credit for taking the blame and apologising though. It was quite a remarkable press statement for a politician. We'll have summer weather over Easter so people will go outside and gather around the beer gardens (as they are already doing even though you can't sit in them) and meet up with friends. I think they know that people aren't going to stay inside at this point. Might actually be safer as well as otherwise they'd just be meeting indoors.
 
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Today I had a PCR test which came back as negative but under observations it said I gave a positive result for competitive heterologous internal control. Can anyone explain exactly what this means because I'm at a complete loss.
 

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That can happen when you get sideswiped by a new, much more contagious variant that developed in a country where the virus was allowed to spread freely without adequate lockdown measures. Which we’ve seen in places with large swathes of underprivileged people living in slums. Such as Brazil, South Africa or Kent.
Was it developed there or just discovered there?