Wtf are you on about now?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I really don't know how many times I have to say that I am not saying we shouldn't lock down! All three lockdowns in Ireland have been completely necessary, I'm not some conspiracy theorist saying that lockdowns are bullshit bla bla. I'm also not saying we should just simply exit our current lockdown gung-ho and see what happens, that would be stupid.
Where I live, we've been locked down to 5km for 27 out the last 29 weeks, fine, whatever, I can see why. But cases have completely plateaued with this stupid new variant now so I'd like to see some sort of different approach. Just open a few things, like increase the 5km, maybe a bit of outdoor dining, maybe hairdressers if they have the right circumstances, maybe allow people to meet up outside (everyone's doing it anyway!). I can't imagine any of these things could cause a sudden exponential growth in the virus so why not try? If cases do go up, like they have been since the schools opened again, stop that service.
A full lockdown til September is just a bad, bad idea. People will go berserk, they already are.
Also @Pogue Mahone surely you could at least agree we should be moving back to regional restrictions. I mean yeah Dublin and border countries should arguably stay in level 5 but Cork should at least be allowed open up a bit?
Darwinism wins out every time
Yes. That makes sense to me. It’s a bit strange the way we’ve completely done away with the regional approach from last year. I think everyone involved is shitting themselves after things got so badly out of control, so quickly, in January. So they’re almost paralysed by fear/indecision now. It sucks.
That’s not going to happen. I guarantee it. I’m pessimistic about our ability to keep cases down over the next month or two but optimistic about the vaccination roll-out. It’s going to increase exponentially very soon and the vast majority of the country will be vaccinated before summer is out.
I think that even having 50% vaccinated will make a huge difference to how safe it is to open up. And that’s due to happen (first dose) by the end of April.
This is the problem, if people are already meeting in large groups then they are not abiding by the rules and possibly worsening the issue.
I seem to end up listening to Trinity’s Luke O’Neill on Newstalk once a week while doing the school run, he always comes across so optimistic about the vaccine program, just about the only positive voice I can find right now. Anyway he’s loving the data from Israel, and really impressed by how the rival pharma-companies are collaborating. Seems to believe Sanofi will come into play in a major way sometime in the second half of the year.
I hope you're right, the data from Israel and the Uk does look promising anyway.
He taught me (almost) everything I know about immunology. A very long time ago. Absolutely lovely fella but could do with maybe easing back on all the media work. You can’t turn the telly or radio on for 10 minutes without him making an appearance! Side note. Our “hilarious” nickname for him in med school was Luke O’ Trying (leukotrien, a wee immunology joke there)
I think we’re going to be swimming in vaccines very soon and our relatively low population means we should be able to rattle through everyone fairly quickly once supply constraints are removed.
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Thanks both for the reassuring sense and kind words.
I'm not sure a plateau in spring during a vaccine roll-out is any sort of indication that you should relax any other measures yet.
The head of one of the main ICUs in Italy has been speaking about the recent cases. Little that's new but reassuring that younger people are still more resilient even if they are getting infected more.
He is also seeing in the region a slowdown in admissions and expects the current lockdown to start having an effect over the next week.
I was just highlighting the key concepts of the plan
Mind me asking where you are?
Castleknock. You're in Blanch right? What's your take on easing any restrictions beyond schools?
Oh fancy.
not too far, I’m in mulhuddart.
round here locally, the numbers aren’t budging. Still got mine off school. I have a suspicion that Easter won’t go well too.
I dunno, havent been inside the shopping centre for over a year. I’d like to see them give us a little more than 5km though.
Id also like to see them vaccinate the problem areas, it would make a huge, quick difference. But I understand why they don’t.
I am just waiting here, patiently, but it’s wearing thin
Not much lockdown going on here. Streets were pretty packed over the weekend and I heard drunken kids outside till about 3am. Just don't understand why they aren't getting busted. The supermarkets are jammed around 3pm as everybody buys their booze for the night ahead.
Just arranged to meet my two drinking buddies in a garden on Monday, the first day allowed in the UK. All three of us vaccinated too, so feeling good. And my mate makes a damn good curry.
Well it's more Carpenterstown which is the Coolmine side of Castleknock!Oh fancy.
not too far, I’m in mulhuddart.
round here locally, the numbers aren’t budging. Still got mine off school. I have a suspicion that Easter won’t go well too.
I dunno, havent been inside the shopping centre for over a year. I’d like to see them give us a little more than 5km though.
Id also like to see them vaccinate the problem areas, it would make a huge, quick difference. But I understand why they don’t.
I am just waiting here, patiently, but it’s wearing thin
I'd sort of agree, to be honest we don't have it too bad in our 5km. It includes Phoenix Park, plenty of supermarkets and some nice parks so it hasn't been too bad. The 5km rule isn't as much of a bastard in urban areas as it is out in rural areas where there is absolutely feck all near people. So yeah, I think the 5km rule needs to go and the increase should be increased based on the incidence rate in each county, which I guess would put Dublin at the lower end, but what can you do.
I'm honestly just curious to see if cases do go up if we allow more interactions or open up outdoor dining, because most people have been ignoring the restrictions, having people over, house parties, meeting other households in public etc. anyway so really what difference would it actually make allowing these things in controlled settings at this stage? It's an interesting one for sure.
Whats this about Boris saying expect a 3rd wave because of it slipping through the border from the EU? Close the feckin borders completely then you twat. We are nearly there in the UK. Keep the UK on track atleast. Pointless bungling it now just to put us on level shitness of the rest of Europe. Atleast we could be back to normality soon, couldn't give a shit about abroad holidays. I'd settle for domestic holidays and having the luxuries such as pubs and shops open.
This is what I don’t understand. I’ve heard from people in Australia, who have done just that, who say that you’d never know that COVID was a thing anymore over there
It’s complete nonsense and shutting the borders isn’t necessary. The current mainland European wave is because of the Uk variant spreading across the continent. The wave he’s talking about started in the UK and is rolling away, not towards you. Classic BoJo bullshitting though. Has to find a way to blame the EU for everything.
I did think it was a bit of fear mongering so he can give some of our vaccines to EU to help them out while saying it's in our best interests, softens the blow to the UK public and not lose face over more vaccine deliveries going to EU, while UK vaccines slow down.
Or he's just a cock womble who hasn't got a clue.
It isn't quite that good here as covid slipping out of quarantine hotels makes it permanent nervous time, because when it does it results in a swift and usually sever lockdown, at least locally.
We do though have a far more normal life. We only have to wear masks on public transport although many still do in places like supermarkets, where distancing isn't easy. Everything is open but there are restrictions with compulsory electronic registration every time you go into a pup, cafe or restaurant and limits on group sizes at things like weddings, funerals and sporting events. Some sectors have still been decimated, especially hospitality during lock down periods and of course anything tourism related as until recently state borders have often been closed so even domestic travel has been limited. Unemployment is back down to only slighlty more than a year ago but it will go up again when the government support reduces soon. GDP is only down 3%ish. Health services are operating more or less as normal although there has been some disruption during lockdowns.
The big difference is that we have used all the usual measures e.g. masks, distancing, closing hospitality and other venues etc with state and international border closures and police guarded quarantine to great effect. Early on we made the choice to shut state borders to avoid each cross infecting the others once community transmission is eradicated and of course imposed an international travel ban for non-Aussies and very big restrictions on Aussies - limited flights and spaces in quarantine combines with the cost of quarantine has limited inflows and most of us are banned from leaving unless you are leaving long term for work or Uni etc.
If you are going to ban overseas travel you need to do it properly and unless your goal is eliminating community transmission, with all the hardship that months of stage 5 lockdown brings it isn't going ton solve the issues on its own. The time to do with was March last year, if you were going to do it. As a short term measure when combined with other measures it might be worth it while you rapidly vaccinate but the government have knee-jerked with incomplete measures so often that I doubt the public would get behind such sever restrictions.
I wish I knew the definitive answer to that, GB. I don't want to speculate, but the hypocrisy of government officials (preaching to practice social distancing, staying in lockdown and then breaking all the rules that they had set out) is not a good look and makes me think that there is something truly deeper in what's going on right now.
My position is this, when we first heard about covid, I was all for lockdowns. I wanted us to go in the most strictest lockdown possible so that we could get over this as soon as possible - kind of like China did.. and the reality is that most governments could do that if they really wanted to - even the craziest "conspiracy theorists" would agree to going on a strict no move lockdown for 3 or 4 weeks so we can get out of this misery.
The reality now is that this has been dragging on and in my opinion - it doesn't warrant the type of reaction (based on the data and science) that we first had provided it. Governments around the world who are keeping people under lockdown seem like they're abusing their power. Constantly moving goal posts, contradicting themselves - do this, then next week that particular thing was not right, do this, etc. It just screams like their trying to get more control, take away your rights and freedoms and once they have it it'll be a lot harder to get back.
I can't speak for every government but I know in Canada, we have a socialist leader who's actions during covid are making our country more and more into a socialist country. He's using covid as an excuse to push out his socialist ideals and that's the part that bothers me... the fact that covid is now becoming politicized.
Just look on this board or anywhere rather, you cannot even have a discussion about it. The moment you bring up alternative views, question it (with science driven data and numbers) you are a conspiracy theorist. I tell a mod on here that the vaccine has not undergone the same type of review as an FDA cleared vaccine has and apparently I'm lying and don't know what i'm talking about even though that is clearly not up for debate.
I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
The problem is we can't even ask any questions and if we do we're deniers. There are some folks here who are not open to any type of discussion about it. Covid is a religion to them and if you don't fear for your life and hide 24/7 you don't trust science.
Here's a better video if you don't like that one.
Important bit about PCR testing:
I was trying to indulge, and survived through the first minute of "died with Covid or from Covid" old bullshit. But then he starts talking about PCR, and anyone who knows a bit about this clearly understand he knows feck all of what he's talking about. Then I question, why, a year later, are you still listening to people like this? What are his credentials? He's picking up numbers from PCR (which might be generally true) to make inane points. When he gets to the phase of correlating PCR cycles with how sick you are (immediately before the 03:00 minute mark, which was when I couldn't watch any longer) he just shows he's a massive ignorant on the subject. I've been studying basic medical sciences for 20 years of my life (out of pure joy, at the expense of being, in relative terms, quite ignorant at clinical sciences). If you want proof that I'm not a recent enthusiast, you can wonder why I, as a doctor, was writing posts like this in a football forum 8 years ago. I love and care for this stuff. https://www.redcafe.net/threads/the-random-chat-thread.363091/page-140#post-12880926 The guy you're listening to knows nothing about biology other than what he learned in the last year because it became a popular theme. People like me can tell in an instant who knows their game in these themes or who doesn't. It's plain plain obvious.
Imagine you sitting down with someone like my girlfriend, who hates football, probably never watched a full game, but knows basic math. And she starts arguing with you that a given random player must have played better than the one who was almost unanimously considered MOTM by fans by throwing at you random numbers like he touched the ball x times or was only fouled y times... Imagine how wasteful discussing that would look to you, and how you would dismiss her arguments as soon as you, as a football fan, realized that she had no basic understanding of the game... It may seem a trivial example, but the point I'm making is rather simple, you only need abstraction capacity to understand it.
That's kind of how I feel when I listen to a guy like that. Now of course, if after one year of this crap you're still trying to learn about Covid by listening to Joe Rogan show, people will call out your ignorance.
There certainly are not important bits about PCR testing in there. It's an ignorant spewing numbers that seem to make sense to an ignorant audience. Why you would chose an Economic analyst (and a politically biased one) to teach you about Covid is the part that makes you seem like a lost case. You are looking for people to validate your formed conclusions, not really trying to learn or "ask questions" about the subject.
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The Liberal Party in Canada is about as central as you can get. Most mildly social democratic parties around the world that are center/left are still more left wing that the Canadian Liberal Party.
Why would you listen to nonsense from this right wing covid denier (or to be very generous "downplayer")? Epidemiologists and scientists in appropriate areas think he is full of shit but you don't seem to want to listen to them. Listening to nutters on You Tube isn't research.
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Most countries with half decent reporting are running at between about 2 and 4% mortality rate - not half of one percent. You are using the covid deniers favorite trick of ignoring old people and anyone with any health condition and saying "only 0.05% of the population who I care about will die".
Discarding those millions of people who you don't consider important enough to live just makes you a bad human being IMO.
Forget left wing/right wing.. remove all potential bias.. why would anyone listen to a person with no qualifications over experts in the field?
A part of it has to be people feeling like experts in a field after reading wikipedia and spending 10 mins on the internet..
Its also a lot of confirmation bias.. its listening to what you want to believe and taking it to be true.. every other opinion is wrong.. the one person who says what you like is true.
The US has lost ~0.17% of its entire population.. their best estimate is around 30-35% have been infected so far.
I have no idea where you are getting the 0.05% from
A part of it has to be people feeling like experts in a field after reading wikipedia and spending 10 mins on the internet..
Its also a lot of confirmation bias.. its listening to what you want to believe and taking it to be true.. every other opinion is wrong.. the one person who says what you like is true.
The UK has lost nearly 0.2% of its entire population due to covid.. and nowhere near 100% have been infected yet..
The US has lost ~0.17% of its entire population.. their best estimate is around 30-35% have been infected so far.
I have no idea where you are getting the 0.05% from
An update from India here - our gross negligence and stupidity has caused an alarming upswing in cases over the past ten days or so. We're in the so called 'second wave', reporting 40K+ cases everyday now. The worst part is, none of this has been caused due to more infectious mutated strains from (UK, Brazilian etc.) but it's just a result of non compliance if I can say that.
No one still wears masks, get that. Fuel Stations, supermarkets, general stores...you name it. Bars and pubs don't give a damn either. They're overcrowded, no distance being maintained whatsoever, stay open until 1 AM, 3 AM and what not. We can't afford another complete lockdown so it's either going be night curfew/ weekend lockdown or both. Looks like 2021 here, like many other countries is going to be a repeat of last year.
No one still wears masks, get that. Fuel Stations, supermarkets, general stores...you name it. Bars and pubs don't give a damn either. They're overcrowded, no distance being maintained whatsoever, stay open until 1 AM, 3 AM and what not. We can't afford another complete lockdown so it's either going be night curfew/ weekend lockdown or both. Looks like 2021 here, like many other countries is going to be a repeat of last year.
Remove old people and anyone with any other health issue from the stats and only 0.05% of the rest will die of covid.
Interesting fact is that young health people without cancer die less often than people with stage 3 or 4 cancers or those over 70. But we don't need to worry about looking after them thankfully. The are as good as dead already so sod them
my parents have been complaining that mask use was drastically down by sept/october last year, and there's been no rise in cases from then till recently. the only new thing seems to be the new variants.
has something else changed too?
The 0.05% figure started as viral misinformation on social media (mainly facebook) - big part is nobody really knows if its referring to infection fatality rate or case fatality rate
Has been fact checked several times though
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...stimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/
https://www.capradio.org/articles/2...ook-posts-mislead-on-covid-19-mortality-rate/
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-9243914747
This has been pointed out many times to those bringing the 0.05% figure up to prove where they got it from, any CDC link or graph or data that backs it up. And we got nothing.
He's laying the groundwork for two things; forcing people to spend their money on UK holidays instead of going abroad, and closing the borders if the SA variant/other new variant becomes prevalent and the AZ vaccine most people have had stops working.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445
Really interesting article, suggesting that the Rhinovirus (common cold) ejects coronavirus from cells stopping it from infecting. So catching a cold could be a good way of fighting of the coronavirus! But incidents of inluenza nd colds are way down because of social distancing, masks, hygeine etc.
Also suggests that because of the fall in cold and flu cases, our immunity to those could be decreasing too, maybe leading a nasty surge next autumn and winter.
It's fascinating how it is all so interconnected and obvious once it's been pointed out!
Really interesting article, suggesting that the Rhinovirus (common cold) ejects coronavirus from cells stopping it from infecting. So catching a cold could be a good way of fighting of the coronavirus! But incidents of inluenza nd colds are way down because of social distancing, masks, hygeine etc.
Also suggests that because of the fall in cold and flu cases, our immunity to those could be decreasing too, maybe leading a nasty surge next autumn and winter.
It's fascinating how it is all so interconnected and obvious once it's been pointed out!
Thanks for the context
I think the lockdown effects has got to you. What you’re choosing to believe in and find examples of on then internet has already been debunked.
0.05% for example. Look at the posts from @Wolverine and @Arruda on it. These guys are real doctors.
covid has been politically used for sure. You only have to look at US. Before and after the change of president and the amount of vaccines for example. The way some of the states are ordering people to fully open up before they have their vaccine. Those people are friends of trump. So yeah it has been politicised.
your answer to my question; I can’t get a straight answer on it from anyone that asks others to think like you are currently.
have you ever thought that what you’re choosing to believe is wrong?
Well said sir