Pogue Mahone
Swiftie Fan Club President
Wtf are you on about now?The plan is deployed as expected as follows:
Wtf are you on about now?The plan is deployed as expected as follows:
I really don't know how many times I have to say that I am not saying we shouldn't lock down! All three lockdowns in Ireland have been completely necessary, I'm not some conspiracy theorist saying that lockdowns are bullshit bla bla. I'm also not saying we should just simply exit our current lockdown gung-ho and see what happens, that would be stupid.The UK have been utterly incompetent throughout barring their rapid vaccination program roll out.
However, lock-downs are one of a few weapons that you have to keep infections under control while you vaccinate. You can't make it not so by wishing unfortunately.
The only way to not lockdown before full vaccination is to virtually eradicate (ironically using rapid extreme lock-downs) like NZ and Australia have done and you need to get there in the first place, which might have been close to impossible without fully closed international and internal borders, concrete quarantine arrangements and early extreme lockdown until case of community transmission are zero.
Darwinism wins out every timeI posted a while ago about a house party full of older women in the house behind mine.
Well the woman of the house died last Tuesday.
Her funeral is today. I've counted about 50 people in the yard having a funeral party. I took a photo.
Police just arrived.
Mashed into a small back yard and not a mask in sight
There is no more compliance.
People are done
Yes. That makes sense to me. It’s a bit strange the way we’ve completely done away with the regional approach from last year. I think everyone involved is shitting themselves after things got so badly out of control, so quickly, in January. So they’re almost paralysed by fear/indecision now. It sucks.Also @Pogue Mahone surely you could at least agree we should be moving back to regional restrictions. I mean yeah Dublin and border countries should arguably stay in level 5 but Cork should at least be allowed open up a bit?
That’s not going to happen. I guarantee it. I’m pessimistic about our ability to keep cases down over the next month or two but optimistic about the vaccination roll-out. It’s going to increase exponentially very soon and the vast majority of the country will be vaccinated before summer is out.A full lockdown til September is just a bad, bad idea. People will go berserk, they already are.
This is the problem, if people are already meeting in large groups then they are not abiding by the rules and possibly worsening the issue.maybe allow people to meet up outside (everyone's doing it anyway!)
I seem to end up listening to Trinity’s Luke O’Neill on Newstalk once a week while doing the school run, he always comes across so optimistic about the vaccine program, just about the only positive voice I can find right now. Anyway he’s loving the data from Israel, and really impressed by how the rival pharma-companies are collaborating. Seems to believe Sanofi will come into play in a major way sometime in the second half of the year.That’s not going to happen. I guarantee it. I’m pessimistic about our ability to keep cases down over the next month or two but optimistic about the vaccination roll-out. It’s going to increase exponentially very soon and the vast majority of the country will be vaccinated before summer is out.
I think that even having 50% vaccinated will make a huge difference to how safe it is to open up. And that’s due to happen (first dose) by the end of April.
I hope you're right, the data from Israel and the Uk does look promising anyway.That’s not going to happen. I guarantee it. I’m pessimistic about our ability to keep cases down over the next month or two but optimistic about the vaccination roll-out. It’s going to increase exponentially very soon and the vast majority of the country will be vaccinated before summer is out.
I think that even having 50% vaccinated will make a huge difference to how safe it is to open up. And that’s due to happen (first dose) by the end of April.
He taught me (almost) everything I know about immunology. A very long time ago. Absolutely lovely fella but could do with maybe easing back on all the media work. You can’t turn the telly or radio on for 10 minutes without him making an appearance! Side note. Our “hilarious” nickname for him in med school was Luke O’ Trying (leukotrien, a wee immunology joke there)I seem to end up listening to Trinity’s Luke O’Neill on Newstalk once a week while doing the school run, he always comes across so optimistic about the vaccine program, just about the only positive voice I can find right now. Anyway he’s loving the data from Israel, and really impressed by how the rival pharma-companies are collaborating. Seems to believe Sanofi will come into play in a major way sometime in the second half of the year.
Don't be worried. You're doing the right thing for sure and a bit if concern is far from irrational. Let us know how it goes and try and enjoy it. It's the first part of getting back to normality and you being protected and keeping good health. Not only that but protecting your loved ones and others loved ones.
Thanks both for the reassuring sense and kind words.If it's any help I will say that both the German and the UK haematology specialists are saying that the benefits outweigh the risks. In particular that there's no sign that these rare adverse reactions are more common in people with a history of thrombosis or aneurism.
The German report just emphasises the need for everyone, including doctors, to be alert to possible symptoms - like multiple bruising points and prolonged headaches.
I'm not sure a plateau in spring during a vaccine roll-out is any sort of indication that you should relax any other measures yet.I really don't know how many times I have to say that I am not saying we shouldn't lock down! All three lockdowns in Ireland have been completely necessary, I'm not some conspiracy theorist saying that lockdowns are bullshit bla bla. I'm also not saying we should just simply exit our current lockdown gung-ho and see what happens, that would be stupid.
Where I live, we've been locked down to 5km for 27 out the last 29 weeks, fine, whatever, I can see why. But cases have completely plateaued with this stupid new variant now so I'd like to see some sort of different approach. Just open a few things, like increase the 5km, maybe a bit of outdoor dining, maybe hairdressers if they have the right circumstances, maybe allow people to meet up outside (everyone's doing it anyway!). I can't imagine any of these things could cause a sudden exponential growth in the virus so why not try? If cases do go up, like they have been since the schools opened again, stop that service.
A full lockdown til September is just a bad, bad idea. People will go berserk, they already are.
He is also seeing in the region a slowdown in admissions and expects the current lockdown to start having an effect over the next week.ICU mortality remains high, around 35-40%, not so far from the first and second wave mortality. At this stage the age range has decreased: we have patients as young as 27, we have had 40, 42, 50, without associated pathologies, who arrived in intensive care in critical condition. The people who survive are on average the younger ones, around 60 years or below.
I was just highlighting the key concepts of the planWtf are you on about now?
Mind me asking where you are?I really don't know how many times I have to say that I am not saying we shouldn't lock down! All three lockdowns in Ireland have been completely necessary, I'm not some conspiracy theorist saying that lockdowns are bullshit bla bla. I'm also not saying we should just simply exit our current lockdown gung-ho and see what happens, that would be stupid.
Where I live, we've been locked down to 5km for 27 out the last 29 weeks, fine, whatever, I can see why. But cases have completely plateaued with this stupid new variant now so I'd like to see some sort of different approach. Just open a few things, like increase the 5km, maybe a bit of outdoor dining, maybe hairdressers if they have the right circumstances, maybe allow people to meet up outside (everyone's doing it anyway!). I can't imagine any of these things could cause a sudden exponential growth in the virus so why not try? If cases do go up, like they have been since the schools opened again, stop that service.
A full lockdown til September is just a bad, bad idea. People will go berserk, they already are.
Castleknock. You're in Blanch right? What's your take on easing any restrictions beyond schools?Mind me asking where you are?
Oh fancy.Castleknock. You're in Blanch right? What's your take on easing any restrictions beyond schools?
The head of one of the main ICUs in Italy has been speaking about the recent cases. Little that's new but reassuring that younger people are still more resilient even if they are getting infected more.
He is also seeing in the region a slowdown in admissions and expects the current lockdown to start having an effect over the next week.
Well it's more Carpenterstown which is the Coolmine side of Castleknock!Oh fancy.
not too far, I’m in mulhuddart.
round here locally, the numbers aren’t budging. Still got mine off school. I have a suspicion that Easter won’t go well too.
I dunno, havent been inside the shopping centre for over a year. I’d like to see them give us a little more than 5km though.
Id also like to see them vaccinate the problem areas, it would make a huge, quick difference. But I understand why they don’t.
I am just waiting here, patiently, but it’s wearing thin
This is what I don’t understand. I’ve heard from people in Australia, who have done just that, who say that you’d never know that COVID was a thing anymore over thereWhats this about Boris saying expect a 3rd wave because of it slipping through the border from the EU? Close the feckin borders completely then you twat. We are nearly there in the UK. Keep the UK on track atleast. Pointless bungling it now just to put us on level shitness of the rest of Europe. Atleast we could be back to normality soon, couldn't give a shit about abroad holidays. I'd settle for domestic holidays and having the luxuries such as pubs and shops open.
It’s complete nonsense and shutting the borders isn’t necessary. The current mainland European wave is because of the Uk variant spreading across the continent. The wave he’s talking about started in the UK and is rolling away, not towards you. Classic BoJo bullshitting though. Has to find a way to blame the EU for everything.Whats this about Boris saying expect a 3rd wave because of it slipping through the border from the EU? Close the feckin borders completely then you twat. We are nearly there in the UK. Keep the UK on track atleast. Pointless bungling it now just to put us on level shitness of the rest of Europe. Atleast we could be back to normality soon, couldn't give a shit about abroad holidays. I'd settle for domestic holidays and having the luxuries such as pubs and shops open.
I did think it was a bit of fear mongering so he can give some of our vaccines to EU to help them out while saying it's in our best interests, softens the blow to the UK public and not lose face over more vaccine deliveries going to EU, while UK vaccines slow down.It’s complete nonsense and shutting the borders isn’t necessary. The current mainland European wave is because of the Uk variant spreading across the continent. The wave he’s talking about started in the UK and is rolling away, not towards you. Classic BoJo bullshitting though. Has to find a way to blame the EU for everything.
It isn't quite that good here as covid slipping out of quarantine hotels makes it permanent nervous time, because when it does it results in a swift and usually sever lockdown, at least locally.This is what I don’t understand. I’ve heard from people in Australia, who have done just that, who say that you’d never know that COVID was a thing anymore over there
I wish I knew the definitive answer to that, GB. I don't want to speculate, but the hypocrisy of government officials (preaching to practice social distancing, staying in lockdown and then breaking all the rules that they had set out) is not a good look and makes me think that there is something truly deeper in what's going on right now.Let me ask you this one thing, in which way do governments, I say plural cos the whole world is at it, benefit from locking people down for a year?
I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?"people believe everything they see in the news but don't do their own research"
Then the research these people do consists of looking at random feckin webpages from nutjobs and Facebook posts.
The problem is we can't even ask any questions and if we do we're deniers. There are some folks here who are not open to any type of discussion about it. Covid is a religion to them and if you don't fear for your life and hide 24/7 you don't trust science.Asking questions is very easy, asking good questions is what makes a meaningful contribution to the world. That requires a base understanding of the things you’re enquiring about. Otherwise you’re just doing what toddlers do.
Would you praise someone for asking whether the sun is the centre of the solar system, based on what we know?
I was trying to indulge, and survived through the first minute of "died with Covid or from Covid" old bullshit. But then he starts talking about PCR, and anyone who knows a bit about this clearly understand he knows feck all of what he's talking about. Then I question, why, a year later, are you still listening to people like this? What are his credentials? He's picking up numbers from PCR (which might be generally true) to make inane points. When he gets to the phase of correlating PCR cycles with how sick you are (immediately before the 03:00 minute mark, which was when I couldn't watch any longer) he just shows he's a massive ignorant on the subject. I've been studying basic medical sciences for 20 years of my life (out of pure joy, at the expense of being, in relative terms, quite ignorant at clinical sciences). If you want proof that I'm not a recent enthusiast, you can wonder why I, as a doctor, was writing posts like this in a football forum 8 years ago. I love and care for this stuff. https://www.redcafe.net/threads/the-random-chat-thread.363091/page-140#post-12880926 The guy you're listening to knows nothing about biology other than what he learned in the last year because it became a popular theme. People like me can tell in an instant who knows their game in these themes or who doesn't. It's plain plain obvious.The problem is we can't even ask any questions and if we do we're deniers. There are some folks here who are not open to any type of discussion about it. Covid is a religion to them and if you don't fear for your life and hide 24/7 you don't trust science.
Here's a better video if you don't like that one.
Important bit about PCR testing:
The Liberal Party in Canada is about as central as you can get. Most mildly social democratic parties around the world that are center/left are still more left wing that the Canadian Liberal Party.I can't speak for every government but I know in Canada, we have a socialist leader who's actions during covid are making our country more and more into a socialist country. He's using covid as an excuse to push out his socialist ideals and that's the part that bothers me... the fact that covid is now becoming politicized.
Why would you listen to nonsense from this right wing covid denier (or to be very generous "downplayer")? Epidemiologists and scientists in appropriate areas think he is full of shit but you don't seem to want to listen to them. Listening to nutters on You Tube isn't research.The problem is we can't even ask any questions and if we do we're deniers. There are some folks here who are not open to any type of discussion about it. Covid is a religion to them and if you don't fear for your life and hide 24/7 you don't trust science.
Here's a better video if you don't like that one.
Important bit about PCR testing:
Most countries with half decent reporting are running at between about 2 and 4% mortality rate - not half of one percent. You are using the covid deniers favorite trick of ignoring old people and anyone with any health condition and saying "only 0.05% of the population who I care about will die".I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
The UK has lost nearly 0.2% of its entire population due to covid.. and nowhere near 100% have been infected yet..I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
Remove old people and anyone with any other health issue from the stats and only 0.05% of the rest will die of covid.Forget left wing/right wing.. remove all potential bias.. why would anyone listen to a person with no qualifications over experts in the field?
A part of it has to be people feeling like experts in a field after reading wikipedia and spending 10 mins on the internet..
Its also a lot of confirmation bias.. its listening to what you want to believe and taking it to be true.. every other opinion is wrong.. the one person who says what you like is true.
The UK has lost nearly 0.2% of its entire population due to covid.. and nowhere near 100% have been infected yet..
The US has lost ~0.17% of its entire population.. their best estimate is around 30-35% have been infected so far.
I have no idea where you are getting the 0.05% from
my parents have been complaining that mask use was drastically down by sept/october last year, and there's been no rise in cases from then till recently. the only new thing seems to be the new variants.An update from India here - our gross negligence and stupidity has caused an alarming upswing in cases over the past ten days or so. We're in the so called 'second wave', reporting 40K+ cases everyday now. The worst part is, none of this has been caused due to more infectious mutated strains from (UK, Brazilian etc.) but it's just a result of non compliance if I can say that.
No one still wears masks, get that. Fuel Stations, supermarkets, general stores...you name it. Bars and pubs don't give a damn either. They're overcrowded, no distance being maintained whatsoever, stay open until 1 AM, 3 AM and what not. We can't afford another complete lockdown so it's either going be night curfew/ weekend lockdown or both. Looks like 2021 here, like many other countries is going to be a repeat of last year.
The 0.05% figure started as viral misinformation on social media (mainly facebook) - big part is nobody really knows if its referring to infection fatality rate or case fatality rateI provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
He's laying the groundwork for two things; forcing people to spend their money on UK holidays instead of going abroad, and closing the borders if the SA variant/other new variant becomes prevalent and the AZ vaccine most people have had stops working.It’s complete nonsense and shutting the borders isn’t necessary. The current mainland European wave is because of the Uk variant spreading across the continent. The wave he’s talking about started in the UK and is rolling away, not towards you. Classic BoJo bullshitting though. Has to find a way to blame the EU for everything.
Thanks for the contextIt isn't quite that good here as covid slipping out of quarantine hotels makes it permanent nervous time, because when it does it results in a swift and usually sever lockdown, at least locally.
We do though have a far more normal life. We only have to wear masks on public transport although many still do in places like supermarkets, where distancing isn't easy. Everything is open but there are restrictions with compulsory electronic registration every time you go into a pup, cafe or restaurant and limits on group sizes at things like weddings, funerals and sporting events. Some sectors have still been decimated, especially hospitality during lock down periods and of course anything tourism related as until recently state borders have often been closed so even domestic travel has been limited. Unemployment is back down to only slighlty more than a year ago but it will go up again when the government support reduces soon. GDP is only down 3%ish. Health services are operating more or less as normal although there has been some disruption during lockdowns.
The big difference is that we have used all the usual measures e.g. masks, distancing, closing hospitality and other venues etc with state and international border closures and police guarded quarantine to great effect. Early on we made the choice to shut state borders to avoid each cross infecting the others once community transmission is eradicated and of course imposed an international travel ban for non-Aussies and very big restrictions on Aussies - limited flights and spaces in quarantine combines with the cost of quarantine has limited inflows and most of us are banned from leaving unless you are leaving long term for work or Uni etc.
If you are going to ban overseas travel you need to do it properly and unless your goal is eliminating community transmission, with all the hardship that months of stage 5 lockdown brings it isn't going ton solve the issues on its own. The time to do with was March last year, if you were going to do it. As a short term measure when combined with other measures it might be worth it while you rapidly vaccinate but the government have knee-jerked with incomplete measures so often that I doubt the public would get behind such sever restrictions.
I think the lockdown effects has got to you. What you’re choosing to believe in and find examples of on then internet has already been debunked.I wish I knew the definitive answer to that, GB. I don't want to speculate, but the hypocrisy of government officials (preaching to practice social distancing, staying in lockdown and then breaking all the rules that they had set out) is not a good look and makes me think that there is something truly deeper in what's going on right now.
My position is this, when we first heard about covid, I was all for lockdowns. I wanted us to go in the most strictest lockdown possible so that we could get over this as soon as possible - kind of like China did.. and the reality is that most governments could do that if they really wanted to - even the craziest "conspiracy theorists" would agree to going on a strict no move lockdown for 3 or 4 weeks so we can get out of this misery.
The reality now is that this has been dragging on and in my opinion - it doesn't warrant the type of reaction (based on the data and science) that we first had provided it. Governments around the world who are keeping people under lockdown seem like they're abusing their power. Constantly moving goal posts, contradicting themselves - do this, then next week that particular thing was not right, do this, etc. It just screams like their trying to get more control, take away your rights and freedoms and once they have it it'll be a lot harder to get back.
I can't speak for every government but I know in Canada, we have a socialist leader who's actions during covid are making our country more and more into a socialist country. He's using covid as an excuse to push out his socialist ideals and that's the part that bothers me... the fact that covid is now becoming politicized.
Just look on this board or anywhere rather, you cannot even have a discussion about it. The moment you bring up alternative views, question it (with science driven data and numbers) you are a conspiracy theorist. I tell a mod on here that the vaccine has not undergone the same type of review as an FDA cleared vaccine has and apparently I'm lying and don't know what i'm talking about even though that is clearly not up for debate.
I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
Well said sirI was trying to indulge, and survived through the first minute of "died with Covid or from Covid" old bullshit. But then he starts talking about PCR, and anyone who knows a bit about this clearly understand he knows feck all of what he's talking about. Then I question, why, a year later, are you still listening to people like this? What are his credentials? He's picking up numbers from PCR (which might be generally true) to make inane points. When he gets to the phase of correlating PCR cycles with how sick you are (immediately before the 03:00 minute mark, which was when I couldn't watch any longer) he just shows he's a massive ignorant on the subject. I've been studying basic medical sciences for 20 years of my life (out of pure joy, at the expense of being, in relative terms, quite ignorant at clinical sciences). If you want proof that I'm not a recent enthusiast, you can wonder why I, as a doctor, was writing posts like this in a football forum 8 years ago. I love and care for this stuff. https://www.redcafe.net/threads/the-random-chat-thread.363091/page-140#post-12880926 The guy you're listening to knows nothing about biology other than what he learned in the last year because it became a popular theme. People like me can tell in an instant who knows their game in these themes or who doesn't. It's plain plain obvious.
Imagine you sitting down with someone like my girlfriend, who hates football, probably never watched a full game, but knows basic math. And she starts arguing with you that a given random player must have played better than the one who was almost unanimously considered MOTM by fans by throwing at you random numbers like he touched the ball x times or was only fouled y times... Imagine how wasteful discussing that would look to you, and how you would dismiss her arguments as soon as you, as a football fan, realized that she had no basic understanding of the game... It may seem a trivial example, but the point I'm making is rather simple, you only need abstraction capacity to understand it.
That's kind of how I feel when I listen to a guy like that. Now of course, if after one year of this crap you're still trying to learn about Covid by listening to Joe Rogan show, people will call out your ignorance.
There certainly are not important bits about PCR testing in there. It's an ignorant spewing numbers that seem to make sense to an ignorant audience. Why you would chose an Economic analyst (and a politically biased one) to teach you about Covid is the part that makes you seem like a lost case. You are looking for people to validate your formed conclusions, not really trying to learn or "ask questions" about the subject.