In a globalised economy, we are all interdependent.
The biggest Australia's economic partner is the over-performing China, then there are countries like Japan and the US.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The biggest Australia's economic partner is the over-performing China, then there are countries like Japan and the US.
So Sweden’s infamous herd immunity tactics resulted in fewer deaths and less harm to the economy than the extremely strict lockdowns of Italy and Spain. Not sure how that supports your argument?The fallacy of minimising restrictions to benefit the economy
Not to mention that Japan seems to have had identical outcomes to Australia’s zero covid policy, despite half a million cases of covid and counting.
It’s also incredibly cherry picked, Norway have done as good a job as any but have had their GDP seriously hurt.
Where are the likes of Thailand on the list? Another with “great stats” and hardline on borders etc, but GDP absolutely twatted, of course.
Very few cherry picked nations have done well in both deaths and GDP and as someone who’s lived in HK, I’ll forever take anything the CCP says with a pinch of salt.
As I said in my earlier post, you’d think that after one year folk would understand that the likes of Australia and South Korea have a unique set of circumstances/advantages to tackle this. Both are essentially island states with the Korean DMZ.
There is no situation here in which France could simply have “done what Australia did” and have gotten back to normal life and normal GDP by July 2020.
It defeat ignores countries you’d think should be on there. Although from both sides of the argument. I think NZ’s economy has done pretty well, hasn’t it? Should be on there, somewhere near China.
Isn’t Norway’s economy fairly heavily reliant on Oil exports? So no matter how well they coped with the pandemic internally, they would never have been able to shield themselves from the economic impact of a global pandemic.
I imagine you’d be able to do a similar analysis on each data point.
Every country should've just become a (literal) island when the pandemic started, and this could've been avoided.
That is pretty much impossible in the EU in fairness, at least on the continent.
I do wish we had adapted a one island policy here in Ireland though*. I don't think we could've gotten to New Zealand levels but it would've helped drastically. So many of our worst outbreaks started off in the fecking border counties.
*I also realise that was essentially impossible cause politics innit
Italy and Spain only locked down factor.late and relaxed far too early and far too much. Sweden had huge death rates - over 500 per million head of population. Japan succeeded partly because they locked down (a bit late) but then we're hugely disciplined with internal restrictions, distancing and mask wearing and also have amazing health facilities.
The countries that dealt with it as a health issue also got the best economic outcomes as having next to no covid allowed the domestic economy to do far better than it would be able to otherwise. Economically large support packages also tended to be less contentious which also helped.
When the next pandemic arrives rapid border closures, immediate distancing and mask policy etc combined with costly social and business support measures until a vaccine is developed should be the norm. Of course we probably won't learn.
Yeah no I agree, I was just trying to be a sarky prick, and I couldn't even get that right.
Land borders aside we were too interconnected with the UK for a one island approach. There’s a huge constant flow of both directions with people basically commuting in one direction or the other. An “Ireland and UK islands” approach would have been a more realistic goal but again, politics innit.
Except they aren't fake or being manipulated.
Examine each country (assuming comparable data exists) using multivariate statistics and border closures, lock downs, mask wearing etc will be statistically significantly correlated with good economic outcomes.
Not if the EU had emergency pandemic policy that allowed it. You could havexthat policy EU wide and not just at national border level.
Do you think it's feasible for countries such as Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, ..., etc. to completely close their borders though?
And countries such as Spain and Italy had quite strong lockdowns, right? But they were still ravaged.
Reliance on overseas trade has an equally strong correlation to that GDP chart. China, Australia and Japan are amongst the least reliant on foreign imports and exports, EU countries are the opposite.
There's not a one size fits all solution. Closing borders and locking everybody inside was never a realistic option for Europe.
Yeah I suppose the 300,000 Irish people over on the mainl.. sorry, Britain, would've disagreed. Still, one can dream eh?
What approach did Aus and NZ take though? I know they are a lot more separated but they did set up a shared border with only flights allowed between the two countries right? Would've been the correct approach.
Its mental to think countries can follow the example of NZ or Australia.
We are hugely dependant on imports and imports. The biggest difference is that all our imports and exports are by sea or air which have continued with little interuption. The pain point in Europe is you rely much on road transport. Not a trivial thing to change but not impossible.
No it isn't. You just need to plan for the next pandemic and have the balls to then do it.
Yes I do. It needs planning and preparation of course. Spain and Italy didn't l9ckdown anywhere neat fast enough orchard enough or for long enough. We need to learn from this for the next pandemic which is inevitable.
What hardline restrictions? The Portuguese have been incredibly unruly, December was a nightmare that brought us 5200 Covid deaths in January, nearly half our total. For practical effects, there were no restrictions in Christmas.
From 300 deaths per day in late january/early february, to 2 deaths yesterday, after lockdown has been reinforced.
One year after we last argued, you're still blindly following the same stupid idea. You've clinged to Portugal's demise without even informing yourself of the most basic issues behind the numbers, and how the situation has changed since we often used it as an example of good pandemic handling.
Think about it for a second. Portugal's situation makes your arguments look even stupider now than one year ago, yet you decided to bring it up to make an innane point.
And quite obviously this isn't simply "more lockdown" = "less deaths". If lockdowns are reactive, no matter how strong they are, deaths will still be immense. Another country can make a lockdown with exactly the same "intensity" and duration, but if it starts one week earlier it will lead to dramatically different results.
As @Wibble points out, Italy and Spain initial lockdowns were too late, as was Portugal's january 2021 lockdown.
In fact, that's probably the most meaningful difference between Asia and Europe when it came to the first wave results. They acted sooner because they took the threat seriously. Likely because of bigger cultural/geographical proximity to China, whilst most of the West was engaged in sinophobic propaganda instead of handling the issue.
As @Wibble points out, Italy and Spain initial lockdowns were too late, as was Portugal's january 2021 lockdown.
In fact, that's probably the most meaningful difference between Asia and Europe when it came to the first wave results. They acted sooner because they took the threat seriously. Likely because of bigger cultural/geographical proximity to China, whilst most of the West was engaged in sinophobic propaganda instead of handling the issue.
Australia has a 41% trade to GDP ratio, one of the lowest in the world. That means you import and export very little as a percentage of your overall economy. China and the US are even lower still.
EU countries are amongst the highest. Countries that were hardest hit with cases and deaths like Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg are all right at the top of the trade lists.
I have no idea why anyone would interact with the special one in this thread.
Excess deaths says your numbers were all over the shop by the end of the Summer.
I’d say “I told you so” but you’d have to be a real ass to do that over a pandemic.
That’s the point.
And Thailand’s economy is hugely dependent on tourism.
Each country has it’s unique set of circumstances, but clealry not everyone could “do an Australia” and have low deaths and good GDP.
You are saying it. You are saying it over a pandemic, and you are claiming false magnanimity.
You argue like a fecking 12 year old. Is this an X-Box/PS5 debate for you?
Portugal has had no proper strategy against Covid ever. It was simply an interesting case study because we locked down very early in March last year and that lead to some of the best results in Europe in the first cpuple of months. Since we first deconfined we were just randomly reacting to events so there was nothing we were doing that serves this debate.
Where will you shift the goalposts next?
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@Regulus Arcturus Black
And exactly one year later you are doing the opposite. With the aggravating factor that you aren't even right, Portugal hasn't been hardline, or when it has been it was always to ammend previous mistakes.
I thought you were merely misinformed, but apparently you are millitant.
Quite ironic that I wrote that specifically adressed to you, and also to convince myself I wouldn't have the guts to bring the issue up when reality became more obvious.
And exactly one year later you are doing the opposite. With the aggravating factor that you aren't even right, Portugal hasn't been hardline, or when it has been it was always to ammend previous mistakes.
I thought you were merely misinformed, but apparently you are millitant.
Big verdict in Belgium. The judge ordered the state to lift all COVID measures within 30 days otherwise they have to pay a ‘dwangsom’ (penalty, fine I don’t know the best way to word it in English)
edit: Dutch link: https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/61251...namaatregelen-binnen-dertig-dagen-opheft.html
edit 2. Fine is 5000 a day apparently. Don’t know if it increases. Full details not known yet. The *** in the link is d a t.
edit: Dutch link: https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/61251...namaatregelen-binnen-dertig-dagen-opheft.html
edit 2. Fine is 5000 a day apparently. Don’t know if it increases. Full details not known yet. The *** in the link is d a t.
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The trend line has no axis or comment for how hard restrictions have been which was your entire point. Seeing how well Sweden faired in comparison to UK, Italy and Spain illustrates that this comment was nonsense.
Likewise there's no nuance for the interconnectivity of economies, nothing factoring in reliance of by road trade, nothing for the "type" of economy (service economies would always be worst hit), countries are cherry picked to fit the trend, some of the countries on the graph don't show accurate excess deaths (how would the graph change with simply Mexico showing well over 2500 excess deaths per 100,000, let alone anything else), plus countries that have been effected badly solely because other countries they heavily export to have been effected badly.
Don't worry though to save embarrassment I'll make your graph the second most disingenuous graph posted on this thread:
Amazing how judges can have the ultimate power during a pandemic. Has he/she consulted with health panels before making this decision?
I don’t know. Any Belgian posters who can elaborate on that?
So what I am understanding of this is, I need to commandeer a ship and sail the seas while stealing stuff? Sweet.The trend line has no axis or comment for how hard restrictions have been which was your entire point. Seeing how well Sweden faired in comparison to UK, Italy and Spain illustrates that this comment was nonsense.
Likewise there's no nuance for the interconnectivity of economies, nothing factoring in reliance of by road trade, nothing for the "type" of economy (service economies would always be worst hit), countries are cherry picked to fit the trend, some of the countries on the graph don't show accurate excess deaths (how would the graph change with simply Mexico showing well over 2500 excess deaths per 100,000, let alone anything else), plus countries that have been effected badly solely because other countries they heavily export to have been effected badly.
Don't worry though to save embarrassment I'll make your graph the second most disingenuous graph posted on this thread:
Only if you want to solve global warming. Not all heroes wear eye patches though.
Glad to see Brazil are turning on Bolsanaro, but what a horrific price they're paying for electing that tosser.
It is technically possible to produce very different and even opposite projections, forecasts and conclusions based on the same assumptions.
I am not convinced the authors have (1) employed an appropriate methodology that uses meaningful indicators incorporating all the key drivers/variables (2) and used a consistent and accurate set of assumptions/data inputs
Figures are generally manipulated, readjusted, presented in a certain way by statisticians, modellers or politicians in order to convey a specific message.
Also, a sophisticated and complex research paper is not necessarily guarantee of quality and intellectual integrity.
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Agghh am I reading these groupings right @Pogue Mahone?
People with cardiac issues, aged 40s, and controlled diabetes now moved to group 7.
GP told me i was group 5 before.
only slight possibility is that my cardiac issues are genetic, hereditary?
People with cardiac issues, aged 40s, and controlled diabetes now moved to group 7.
GP told me i was group 5 before.
only slight possibility is that my cardiac issues are genetic, hereditary?
Yeah, looks like you’re group 7.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think there will be a huge gap between 5 and 7. By then we should be rattling through huge numbers each week and the vast majority of the population is in group 9. Should only be two or three weeks difference.
Honestly seeing people my age with no pre existing conditions in america get the vaccine is annoying af while I'm having to wait until August probably here. I have enough air miles to fly there for free and back so I could do that to get it quicker
France shutting schools for 3 weeks
Thanks fella, just as I thought