SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo

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Oh @Pogue Mahone won't like that graph.
To be honest, what's annoying about the graph is that basically those stats (and data from a school in Long Eaton amongst others) were coming through before Boris Johnson proudly announced that masks were no longer needed in secondary schools, and that hugs were back.

Secondary school age students are testing (with LFTs) twice a week now - so to some extent they do act as an early warning. It's just noticeable that in Bolton's case there were no high community infection rates prior to the school numbers suddenly leaping up, despite relatively high levels of symptomatic/asymptomatic local testing.
 

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Oh @Pogue Mahone won't like that graph.
Why? It’s exactly what you’d expect bearing in mind the age groups vaccinated in the UK.

Nobody ever said kids in school wouldn’t catch the virus/pass it on. What we didn’t know was whether reopening schools in September was a big factor in the exponential growth we saw at the beginning of this year.

Having seen overall cases in Ireland and the Uk flat-line/decrease since the kids went back to school (and with summer holidays less than a month away) we now know for certain that the role schools played in our last surge was being wildly exaggerated by the “shut the schools!” gang. That graph doesn’t change this fact.
 

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In the case of Bolton, the areas where it's concentrated have the youngest demographics, and their jobs are mostly the kind that you can't do from home.

Most of the cases have happened in the uncaccinated age groups, with a high likelihood that it's spreading at school then getting the parents:
Or spreading between parents at work/play and then on to their kids at home. Most likely a mix of both, depending on the nature of the parent’s job and social habits. All we can say for certain is that it’s spreading rapidly amongst the unvaccinated but vaccines seem to be working. Which is very reassuring.

Although I would like to see a breakdown of partially (i.e. one dose) vs fully vaccinated in those stats. You’d have to wonder if spacing out first and second dose by such a long gap is a factor here, bearing in mind the recent data on VE with this variant.
 
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golden_blunder

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To be honest, what's annoying about the graph is that basically those stats (and data from a school in Long Eaton amongst others) were coming through before Boris Johnson proudly announced that masks were no longer needed in secondary schools, and that hugs were back.

Secondary school age students are testing (with LFTs) twice a week now - so to some extent they do act as an early warning. It's just noticeable that in Bolton's case there were no high community infection rates prior to the school numbers suddenly leaping up, despite relatively high levels of symptomatic/asymptomatic local testing.
He’s an idiot though. Last night we were thinking back to his behaviour at the start of covid. Plus if you believe Dominic Cummings revelations Boris was prepared to inject himself with COVID on live tv because he thought it was no more than a flu
 

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Why? It’s exactly what you’d expect bearing in mind the age groups vaccinated in the UK.

Nobody ever said kids in school wouldn’t catch the virus/pass it on. What we didn’t know was whether reopening schools in September was a big factor in the exponential growth we saw at the beginning of this year.

Having seen overall cases in Ireland and the Uk flat-line/decrease since the kids went back to school (and with summer holidays less than a month away) we now know for certain that the role schools played in our last surge was being wildly exaggerated by the “shut the schools!” gang. That graph doesn’t change this fact.
All right all right I was only having a laugh! I'm delighted the schools going back hasn't bollocked things up but I am not delighted about all the extra traffic on the roads and little shits on bikes so bring on the summer.
 

jojojo

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Or spreading between parents at work/play and then on to their kids at home. Most likely a mix of both, depending on the nature of the parent’s job and social habits. All we can say for certain is that it’s spreading rapidly amongst the unvaccinated but vaccines seem to be working. Which is very reassuring.

Although I would like to see a breakdown of partially (i.e. one dose) vs fully vaccinated in those stats. You’d have to wonder if spacing out first and second dose by such a long gap is a factor here, bearing in mind the recent data on VE with this variant.
At the end of April only the 65+ will have had two doses (assuming they wanted them and could get to the vaccine centre) - the 55+ group are there now.

On the schools/parents thing. The circumstantial evidence is that it's the kids. It tracks some others things like school holidays etc. It also fits with the 20-35 group being being lower than the "parents of secondary school age kids" groups.

I agree it's not clearcut though. The reasons might be very individual - like routinely tested 25 year olds probably being in jobs where they got vaccinated early. The case/hospitalisation numbers are fortunately so small that statistical snapshots don't necessarily give you the big picture, and we're at the level where itemised stats (as much as I'd love to see them) are probably patient confidentiality issues.

The real big picture in the Bolton numbers is that whatever role ethnicity is playing in vaccine take-up etc, that's not really the main issue in this outbreak. The over 70s are 90%+ double dosed even in the least vaccinated postcodes in the town.
 

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This Cummings thing is absolute gold... just said Matt Hancock should have been fired twenty times over... for consistently lying to the public and the cabinet.
 

jojojo

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Worth noting that on the 13th March, we'd already been watching Italy's hospitals struggling on nightly news.

We'd also seen European football matches being cancelled or played behind closed doors. It's the same day that the Premier League announced the cancellation of fixtures.
 

sullydnl

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Puts the claims that UK gov actually handled things okay (and the claims that herd immunity was never actually their plan) into sharp context. Incompetent liars.
 

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This Cummings thing is absolute gold... just said Matt Hancock should have been fired twenty times over... for consistently lying to the public and the cabinet.
This is the same cnut who went on national television to lie to us about his own rule breaking?
 

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This is the same cnut who went on national television to lie to us about his own rule breaking?
Yeah whilst I do believe him as much of this is very believable it’s hard to want to stomach it considering what a feckwit he is
 

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I have been listening to some of what has been said. I dislike Cummings as a person who has openly lied on national television to the British public.
But. I dislike and distrust the Tories and in particular Boris even more.
And to be honest, I am not at all surprised by anything Cummings has said so far.
More importantly, it seems like he has the evidence to back up his claims.
I just hope that enough people listen and take a view on the events and realise that those events resulted in the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of people.
 

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Puts the claims that UK gov actually handled things okay (and the claims that herd immunity was never actually their plan) into sharp context. Incompetent liars.
Wait, have people claimed that? I thought it was fairly widely accepted that the UK's response was amongst the world's worst.
 

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This is the same cnut who went on national television to lie to us about his own rule breaking?
I don't like Cummings and he is very much complicit... but a lot of what he is saying is very likely true and it's nice to actually hear it from someone who was a part of this whole shit show.
 

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All right all right I was only having a laugh! I'm delighted the schools going back hasn't bollocked things up but I am not delighted about all the extra traffic on the roads and little shits on bikes so bring on the summer.
Apologies. I’m in a bit of a jocker this morning because my best friend, who is six months younger than me, got his jab last night and I’m still waiting to get a fecking appointment!
 

sullydnl

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Wait, have people claimed that? I thought it was fairly widely accepted that the UK's response was amongst the world's worst.
I thought so too but then their handling of the pandemic was cited as one of the key reasons people voted conservative during the recent elections. I'm not sure the realisation of how bad their government botched the pandemic has fully seeped in to the public.

Not having a go at @vidic blood & sand here and just using him as one example but this was his response when that came up at the time, which I thought it was far too sanguine given the reality of what had happened in the UK. People should not be making "they didn't do too bad" arguments at this point.

It's not been perfect, but you have to appreciate the fact that the situation has been unprecedented. Do you think Labour would have handled it better?
What has really disappointed me most of all is that the efforts of people who have kept the country going in the last year have largely been, disregarded. NHS workers getting a 1% pay rise, and very little mention of shop workers working through the pandemic enabling us to buy food for our families. When we compare the death rates with other countries, the UK is not too bad. To say it's been a shitshow is completely ridiculous. Dealing with the pandemic and brexit at the same time has given the government the biggest challenge any government has faced since the war. You need to put things into perspective.
 

jojojo

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It’s hard to work out what Cummings would be hoping to achieve if he’s making all this shit up. Anyone got any ideas?
From the sounds of him in the last few minutes, revenge against people he's fallen out with (Boris, Hancock) and a PR boost for Rishi Sunak. That said, I've no problem believing his stuff about Boris and Hancock. I'm more suspicious of the idea that Sunak is the cure. :smirk:
 

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I don't like Cummings and he is very much complicit... but a lot of what he is saying is very likely true and it's nice to actually hear it from someone who was a part of this whole shit show.
A lot probably is true. It’s certainly not unbelievable. The issue is why he’s doing it now when he could’ve done it sooner and helped save lives. He’s only doing it now because he’s not on the gravy train anymore.
 

Brwned

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I don’t understand how when they hired him they didn’t realise he was always going to burn them to the ground afterwards. He seems a pretty straightforward character. I know they’re incompetent but seriously, how predictable is this outcome...
 

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sullydnl

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I don’t understand how when they hired him they didn’t realise he was always going to burn them to the ground afterwards. He seems a pretty straightforward character. I know they’re incompetent but seriously, how predictable is this outcome...
 

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I thought so too but then their handling of the pandemic was cited as one of the key reasons people voted conservative during the recent elections. I'm not sure the realisation of how bad their government botched the pandemic has fully seeped in to the public.

Not having a go at @vidic blood & sand here and just using him as one example but this was his response when that came up at the time, which I thought it was far too sanguine given the reality of what had happened in the UK. People should not be making "they didn't do too bad" arguments at this point.
Well, he's a hardcore Brexiteer, so yeah, I guess it's not that surprising that he thinks the same government that fecked the UK out of the EU did a good job with Covid. Half the population could have died and he'd have probably still said they did a good job. I think outside that hardcore leave circle though it's pretty universally accepted that the UK's response was just bad bad bad. In fact it was so bad that Fine fecking Gael's popularity sky rocketed at the time by virtue of doing the basic things you should in contrast to what the Tories were doing!
 

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Well, he's a hardcore Brexiteer, so yeah, I guess it's not that surprising that he thinks the same government that fecked the UK out of the EU did a good job with Covid. Half the population could have died and he'd have probably still said they did a good job. I think outside that hardcore leave circle though it's pretty universally accepted that the UK's response was just bad bad bad. In fact it was so bad that Fine fecking Gael's popularity sky rocketed at the time by virtue of doing the basic things you should in contrast to what the Tories were doing!
Nah my impression is that more than half of tories think “ok, sure, mistakes were made, but mistakes were made everywhere, it’s an unprecedented situation” and, more often, “I don’t think anyone could have done any better, imagine if Corbyn got in” or “just look at the vaccination campaign, I don’t see those Europeans doing any better all things considered”.

e.g. just a couple of days ago

In terms of the govt handling - I’m sure there will have been lots of mistakes, as there were and will be in almost every country.
The reality is the Tories have gained more popularity while the pandemic was top of mind for most, so many people take the view that they are doing the best they can, far away from the view that they've done much, much worse than we should expect.
 

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Nah my impression is that more than half of tories think “ok, sure, mistakes were made, but mistakes were made everywhere, it’s an unprecedented situation” and, more often, “I don’t think anyone could have done any better, imagine if Corbyn got in” or “just look at the vaccination campaign, I don’t see those Europeans doing any better all things considered”.

e.g. just a couple of days ago



The reality is the Tories have gained more popularity while the pandemic was top of mind for most, so many people take the view that they are doing the best they can, far away from the view that they've done much, much worse than we should expect.
We’re over a year into the pandemic and all the really catastrophically stupid government decisions seem to have taken place in Feb/March last year. Since then, whether by luck or good judgement, the Uk is perceived as working its way out of that initial disaster better than most other countries.

They’ve certainly produced some of the best data on treatment of covid around (with no thanks to the government) and played a blinder with vaccine procurement/roll-out (with some thanks to the government) Recency bias will ensure that most people who live in the Uk have a fairly favourable opinion on the way the government has handled this.
 

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We’re over a year into the pandemic and all the really catastrophically stupid government decisions seem to have taken place in Feb/March last year. Since then, whether by luck or good judgement, the Uk is perceived as working its way out of that initial disaster better than most other countries.

They’ve certainly produced some of the best data on treatment of covid around (with no thanks to the government) and played a blinder with vaccine procurement/roll-out (with some thanks to the government) Recency bias will ensure that most people who live in the Uk have a fairly favourable opinion on the way the government has handled this.
Yeah I think that's a fair assessment. Albeit I still think there were shitloads of people backing the government's decisions in the midst of the crisis. Mostly through whataboutism but also generally just uncritical support, often in the name of "being a good citizen, supporting the country during a crisis".
 

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I don't like Cummings and he is very much complicit... but a lot of what he is saying is very likely true and it's nice to actually hear it from someone who was a part of this whole shit show.
A lot probably is true. It’s certainly not unbelievable. The issue is why he’s doing it now when he could’ve done it sooner and helped save lives. He’s only doing it now because he’s not on the gravy train anymore.
Yeah exactly. I've no reason to disbelieve him and if you've ever been involved in politics at work you know you can't speak out at the time, only observe all the crap you're seeing.
 
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Nah my impression is that more than half of tories think “ok, sure, mistakes were made, but mistakes were made everywhere, it’s an unprecedented situation” and, more often, “I don’t think anyone could have done any better, imagine if Corbyn got in” or “just look at the vaccination campaign, I don’t see those Europeans doing any better all things considered”.

e.g. just a couple of days ago



The reality is the Tories have gained more popularity while the pandemic was top of mind for most, so many people take the view that they are doing the best they can, far away from the view that they've done much, much worse than we should expect.
Taken out of context - this was a response to Cummings And what he was going to say.

In terms of the govt handling - I’m sure there will have been lots of mistakes, as there were and will be in almost every country.

not excusing it - and am sure that more detail will come out in time.

but when Cummings is the ‘whistle blower’ - it’s pretty difficult to believe a word he says.


The bolded is what I wrote in full. Which is what I stand by.

simply put, anything Cummings says needs to be taken with a massive pile of salt. this is a man who is blaming everyone else, despite being in a position of “unprecedented” (yes that word) influence for someone who was not elected.

that’s not to say, he’s not telling the truth... but frankly how would we ever know. Have we forgotten Barnard Castle?

I’ve not said they were doing “the best they can” - which is by the way, a bit of a strange bat to beat a govt with - as yes clearly they would be doing the best they can... (that’s irrespective of whether the govt. is blue or red) unless we subscribe to conspiracy theories Of course. I would make the same assumption with every democracy in Europe - each govt is doing their best, despite varying results.

Have they done worse that we should have expected? Probably. But what did we expect? We still know very little.

I certainly haven’t said look at the vaccination campagne or imagine if Corbin was in charge... it’s a futile exercise to imagine how another govt. would have reacted, with so many variables, it’s clearly impossible to hypothetically postulate what Corbin, Starmer or anyone else would have done.

as for the vaccination rollout, that looks to have been quite successful. Is there an issue in acknowledging that? I certainly haven’t been celebrating it

It doesn’t make up for other areas that should have been done better - track and trace being the most obvious example.

in respect of comparing our actions/ decision making/ death rates to our European counterparts, thats a somewhat petty political response from anyone that does so.
 

Brwned

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Taken out of context - this was a response to Cummings And what he was going to say.

In terms of the govt handling - I’m sure there will have been lots of mistakes, as there were and will be in almost every country.

not excusing it - and am sure that more detail will come out in time.

but when Cummings is the ‘whistle blower’ - it’s pretty difficult to believe a word he says.


The bolded is what I wrote in full. Which is what I stand by.

simply put, anything Cummings says needs to be taken with a massive pile of salt. this is a man who is blaming everyone else, despite being in a position of “unprecedented” (yes that word) influence for someone who was not elected.

that’s not to say, he’s not telling the truth... but frankly how would we ever know. Have we forgotten Barnard Castle?

I’ve not said they were doing “the best they can” - which is by the way, a bit of a strange bat to beat a govt with - as yes clearly they would be doing the best they can... (that’s irrespective of whether the govt. is blue or red) unless we subscribe to conspiracy theories Of course. I would make the same assumption with every democracy in Europe - each govt is doing their best, despite varying results.

Have they done worse that we should have expected? Probably. But what did we expect? We still know very little.

I certainly haven’t said look at the vaccination campagne or imagine if Corbin was in charge... it’s a futile exercise to imagine how another govt. would have reacted, with so many variables, it’s clearly impossible to hypothetically postulate what Corbin, Starmer or anyone else would have done.

as for the vaccination rollout, that looks to have been quite successful. Is there an issue in acknowledging that? I certainly haven’t been celebrating it

It doesn’t make up for other areas that should have been done better - track and trace being the most obvious example.

in respect of comparing our actions/ decision making/ death rates to our European counterparts, thats a somewhat petty political response from anyone that does so.
It’s obvious they should have done better, that’s the point he was making. And I was just using you as an example of people who still want to equivocate, for obvious reasons.
 

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Taken out of context - this was a response to Cummings And what he was going to say.

In terms of the govt handling - I’m sure there will have been lots of mistakes, as there were and will be in almost every country.

not excusing it - and am sure that more detail will come out in time.

but when Cummings is the ‘whistle blower’ - it’s pretty difficult to believe a word he says.

The bolded is what I wrote in full. Which is what I stand by.

simply put, anything Cummings says needs to be taken with a massive pile of salt. this is a man who is blaming everyone else, despite being in a position of “unprecedented” (yes that word) influence for someone who was not elected.

that’s not to say, he’s not telling the truth... but frankly how would we ever know. Have we forgotten Barnard Castle?

I’ve not said they were doing “the best they can” - which is by the way, a bit of a strange bat to beat a govt with - as yes clearly they would be doing the best they can... (that’s irrespective of whether the govt. is blue or red) unless we subscribe to conspiracy theories Of course. I would make the same assumption with every democracy in Europe - each govt is doing their best, despite varying results.

Have they done worse that we should have expected? Probably. But what did we expect? We still know very little.

I certainly haven’t said look at the vaccination campagne or imagine if Corbin was in charge... it’s a futile exercise to imagine how another govt. would have reacted, with so many variables, it’s clearly impossible to hypothetically postulate what Corbin, Starmer or anyone else would have done.

as for the vaccination rollout, that looks to have been quite successful. Is there an issue in acknowledging that? I certainly haven’t been celebrating it

It doesn’t make up for other areas that should have been done better - track and trace being the most obvious example.

in respect of comparing our actions/ decision making/ death rates to our European counterparts, thats a somewhat petty political response from anyone that does so.
Maybe I'm simple but I don't think you can draw equivalents towards somebody not holding themselves to account for past behaviour vs. blaming others for their's.

Psychologically speaking, ego rules and people rarely do the former, however it doesn't mean there's nothing to gain from the latter, which is often less twisted by their sense of self-worth (especially when they're outside of party politics).

Agree as well that the vaccination rollout has been a success. And thank feck for that because it's been The Tories only actual policy for the past 9 months.
 
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It’s obvious they should have done better, that’s the point he was making. And I was just using you as an example of people who still want to equivocate, for obvious reasons.
If you think I’m being purposefully ambiguous. You are wrong - and perhaps, or should I say you are making (see I’m being forthright...) judgements that aren’t correct. It’s obvious mistakes have been made, that’s almost a universal truth. What they were, how grave they were, and what could have been done differently are judgements that will take time to process and to unravel.

I have no agenda, and if I did, I wouldn’t be promulgating it on here - I don’t have a want or desire to influence any opinion.
 
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Maybe I'm simple but I don't think you can draw equivalents towards somebody not holding themselves to account for past behaviour vs. blaming others for their's.

Psychologically speaking, ego rules and people rarely do the former, however it doesn't mean there's nothing to gain from the latter, which is often less twisted by their sense of self-worth (especially when they're outside of party politics).
I wasn’t trying to draw equivalents - just to highlight that Cummings needs to be treated with caution - and the Barnard Castle incident was simply the obvious example that came to mind. when he tweeted about publishing the paper he holds, or auctioning it for charity Makes me think he’s got other motives in mind.

i completely agree that there is a massive amount to learn from his insight, however he like Boris seems to think he’s above the law and believes that truth is an Inconvenience. We won’t ever get a politically neutral version of the truth.
 

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I wasn’t trying to draw equivalents - just to highlight that Cummings needs to be treated with caution - and the Barnard Castle incident was simply the obvious example that came to mind. when he tweeted about publishing the paper he holds, or auctioning it for charity Makes me think he’s got other motives in mind.

i completely agree that there is a massive amount to learn from his insight, however he like Boris seems to think he’s above the law and believes that truth is an Inconvenience. We won’t ever get a politically neutral version of the truth.
Ah fair. I do agree that he can't be treated without some scepticism - he'll have some personal motivation for this I'm sure.

I guess it ranges from wanting to destroy the reputation's of the current cabinet, to hoping to secure a book deal.
 
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