SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Tucholsky

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Wouldn’t wish this virus on anyone. My girlfriend and I are both positive, and I’m completely floored. I can’t leave my bed. She’s been able to so far deal with our 2 year old son but is getting worse. Not sure what we’ll do.
Sorry to hear, I wish both of you a speedy recovery.
Sorry to give you some unsolicited advice, but it is time to make some plans for contingencies.
Are the parents of you or your girlfriend already vaccinated? Or close friends? Can one of them give some help in the household or take care of your son, so both of you can concentrate if neccessary on a speedy recovery?
Best wishes to to you and your girlfriend
 

Bwuk

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Sorry to hear, I wish both of you a speedy recovery.
Sorry to give you some unsolicited advice, but it is time to make some plans for contingencies.
Are the parents of you or your girlfriend already vaccinated? Or close friends? Can one of them give some help in the household or take care of your son, so both of you can concentrate if neccessary on a speedy recovery?
Best wishes to to you and your girlfriend
Girlfriends mum has taken a test today if she’s negative we are considering sending him there. Would be worried though that we are just giving it to her as he must have it.
 

Tucholsky

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Girlfriends mum has taken a test today if she’s negative we are considering sending him there. Would be worried though that we are just giving it to her as he must have it.
Yeah, you are probably right with your guess.
Is your girlfriends mum in a risk group? You have to consider that.
Any trustworthy neighbours that are vaccinated, to get some stuff or could help a few hours with your son? (And despite all the horror stories, the overwhelming majority of people are helpful and decent)
Are childcare/family services available where you live and are they decent?
In my area country, there is a possibility to get a family worker for a few hours a day, to check on your household and help with some basics.
Maybe worth a call? To give both of you some peace of my mind, if the situation worsens (Knock on wood)

Best wishes to both of you!
 

FrantikChicken

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I got my vaccine last Friday the 18th, and tested positive for Covid the Thursday after. Talk about bad luck hahah, I must've got it a day or 2 after getting vaccinated.

It's not been too bad so far, just feel pretty sleepy in general and I've lost my sense of smell but otherwise I feel alright.
 

Tucholsky

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Doubling time getting shorter in UK for some reason I don’t understand.
The Delta variant is a nasty one. Only the second jab offers good protection.
Strategy the first half of the year was to get everyone the first jab as fast as possible and now they want to speed up the second.
Especially as vaccines are not as scarce in Europe as before. Thanks to the Americans for that, as a lot of them are vaccine sceptics, unused/unwanted Moderna vaccines are made availabe to Europe/Buyers.
 

massi83

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The Delta variant is a nasty one. Only the second jab offers good protection.
Strategy the first half of the year was to get everyone the first jab as fast as possible and now they want to speed up the second.
Especially as vaccines are not as scarce in Europe as before. Thanks to the Americans for that, as a lot of them are vaccine sceptics, unused/unwanted Moderna vaccines are made availabe to Europe/Buyers.
All of this was true 2 weeks ago. So none of this is unfortunately the correct answer.
 

Tucholsky

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All of this was true 2 weeks ago. So none of this is unfortunately the correct answer.
Don't know how it was done in the UK, but the contracts supplying the additional Moderna vaccinces were confirmed end of last week/over the weekend.
So the timetables about the vaccination effort were updated yesterday/today by our government. You have to consider a certain delay for making contracts and updating the strategy by the bureaucrats.
 

massi83

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Don't know how it was done in the UK, but the contracts supplying the additional Moderna vaccinces were confirmed end of last week/over the weekend.
So the timetables about the vaccination effort were updated yesterday/today by our government. You have to consider a certain delay for making contracts and updating the strategy by the bureaucrats.
Thanks for trying to help, but none of this has anything to do with my question :)
 

Brwned

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SINOVAC IS GOOD VACCINE!

My country is one of the most advanced in terms of population vaccinated with both doses (mainly Sinovac and Pfizer), and the study of effectiveness finally came back. Although the Pfizer is a little bit more effective, SINOVAC is plenty good.


Results after 2 weeks of the second shot:

63.6% effective against symptoms.
87.3% effective against hospitalisation
90.0% effective against ICU admittance.
86.4% effective against death.


Don't buy the propaganda against the Chinese vaccines, they are good stuff.

Just take any vaccine available, unless you are young man, in which case try to avoid the Astra Zeneca.
Pfizer is not a little more effective than that, it’s substantially so. AZ is more than a little more effective than that, and you have no evidence on the comparative safety statistics, yet you’re recommending people avoid that and take Sinovac. That’s the propaganda, not because source A or B said so, but because the evidence demonstrates it.
 

hmchan

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Sadly, there will be health care workers all over the world being infected despite having been vaccinated, whichever vaccine they've had, as none are 100 efficient. My friend is a nurse here in the UK and she recently had it, despite being fully vaccinated.
No vaccine is 100% effective, that's why social distancing and personal hygeine should be maintained even after vaccination. Nonetheless, a vaccine with 50.66% efficacy (95% CI 35.75%-62.11%) means there are potentially 45 more being infected among 100 recipients compared to a vaccine with 95.0% efficacy (95% CI 90.3%-97.6%). Imagine these 45 people, who thought they were protected and lowered their vigilence, are actually infective and continue to spread the virus. And this is before we escalate the scale to thousands, or some of these people work in healthcare who closely contact immunocompromised patients on a daily basis. I started to worry about this long time ago, and now it seems to be happening right now.
 

decorativeed

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No vaccine is 100% effective, that's why social distancing and personal hygeine should be maintained even after vaccination. Nonetheless, a vaccine with 50.66% efficacy (95% CI 35.75%-62.11%) means there are potentially 45 more being infected among 100 recipients compared to a vaccine with 95.0% efficacy (95% CI 90.3%-97.6%). Imagine these 45 people, who thought they were protected and lowered their vigilence, are actually infective and continue to spread the virus. And this is before we escalate the scale to thousands, or some of these people work in healthcare who closely contact immunocompromised patients on a daily basis. I started to worry about this long time ago, and now it seems to be happening right now.
Hopefully they'll get a second, more effective vaccine soon then.
 

hmchan

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Pfizer is not a little more effective than that, it’s substantially so. AZ is more than a little more effective than that, and you have no evidence on the comparative safety statistics, yet you’re recommending people avoid that and take Sinovac. That’s the propaganda, not because source A or B said so, but because the evidence demonstrates it.
That's the tricky point about Sinovac and Sinopharm, especially the former. They never conduct a proper clinical trial, never formally publish data in a peer-reviewed journal. They just stick to the cliche that they have performed phase 3 trial which shows their vaccines are effective and safe. All the so-called evidence is gathered by pieces or rumors from the press or the Internet.

Is the vaccine effective in the elderly age group? Probably but we are too lazy to recruit more subjects. Does it work against the delta variant? It seems so but we're not sure. This is exactly the attitude of these irresponsible companies. They wouldn't care as long as China is sponsoring them to ship these underperforming vaccines to less wealthy countries under vaccine diplomacy.
 

jojojo

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Doubling time getting shorter in UK for some reason I don’t understand.
There is a data problem with results coming from ones of the big labs in Scotland - probably some undercount days, followed by an overcount and those haven't been assigned across the dates correctly yet. The bigger issue though it that the delta variant hit the north-west first and all the debate was about why was Bolton etc different. The simple answer was that it wasn't, it was just first - the delta variant is now running wider, but unfortunately just as fast.

Perfect storm really as it arrived just as vaccine rates in the oldest groups started to make people feel like it was all over, it's a faster spreading variant, the pubs etc are open and a lot of groups have to all practical purposes given up on the idea of social distancing.

Take a look at the heat map on:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
It's currently a disease of the young, and most of them won't be hit that hard by it - people are bored by the restrictions and without seeing the death figures flying up in tandem with cases they aren't that worried. Combine the group mostly likely to be out mixing with the lowest vaccine rates and cases are bound to jump. Now throw school age kids into the mix and a lot of places will feel like it's (almost) business as usual.

If the modellers are right, and we can keep the vaccination rate up (across all regions/communities) then we basically hit a peak of hospitalisations in August before things calm down again. It's startling to see on the graphs but nothing that you wouldn't guess was happening based on what we know about the delta variant, the vaccines and the increased level of social/work/education mixing.

It's not a surprise to me that the young want it to be over, and will accept herd immunity by infection while they wait, especially as a lot of them whether due to education, work or home don't get a choice, and the 18+ are only just getting an option.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-as-covid-rates-go-sky-high-in-student-areas
 

MTF

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That's the tricky point about Sinovac and Sinopharm, especially the former. They never conduct a proper clinical trial, never formally publish data in a peer-reviewed journal. They just stick to the cliche that they have performed phase 3 trial which shows their vaccines are effective and safe. All the so-called evidence is gathered by pieces or rumors from the press or the Internet.

Is the vaccine effective in the elderly age group? Probably but we are too lazy to recruit more subjects. Does it work against the delta variant? It seems so but we're not sure. This is exactly the attitude of these irresponsible companies. They wouldn't care as long as China is sponsoring them to ship these underperforming vaccines to less wealthy countries under vaccine diplomacy.
I think you're mischaracterizing things a bit. The phase 3 trial results from Brazil were published in Lancet. Other results have come from the Chilean government, including the ones quoted above (which should have indicated source better).

Since the trials the levels of efficacy have shown to be lower than the vaccines used in the US and Europe. But back in January for a country like Brazil it was a choice between Sinovac or nothing at all. Only starting in June were AZ vaccines the most used in Brazil, and will mainly be AZ+Pfizer from here on out.

There's not really a pro-China stance of note in South America. Attitudes range more from neutral to suspicious. Certainly the traditional developed countries are given more credibility, so for example a vaccine approved by the US FDA or EU/UK equivalent can be granted approval for use in Brazil without local trials, but not for the Chinese equivalent. In the case of Sinovac however the trials had been conducted locally under supervision of the Brazilian FDA.
 

George Owen

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Pfizer is not a little more effective than that, it’s substantially so. AZ is more than a little more effective than that, and you have no evidence on the comparative safety statistics, yet you’re recommending people avoid that and take Sinovac. That’s the propaganda, not because source A or B said so, but because the evidence demonstrates it.
I'm not talking about effectiveness. It's about the blood clots. In my country, for all those under 40 years old who got the first AZ shot, their second shot is going to be the Pfizer one instead, because the AZ put some young males in the hospital with blood clots. (And it's not only in my country, many European countries took measures as well).

So, IF GIVEN THE CHANCE, just take another vaccine if you are a young man. If not, then just take the AZ of course. Chances are you will be Ok.



PS. In the last 2 weeks, Chile went from 60 thousand active cases, to 40 thousand active cases. ICU occupation also at it's lowest since early May. The situation starting to look better now that the majority of population had already their 2 shots. SINOVAC doesn't look too bad to me.
 

Tibs

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Is there much info on re-infection? People who have had covid before, and getting it again...

Is it less severe? And I mean with evidence not theory.

PS I'm going with a final circuit breaker lockdown in September
 

Pogue Mahone

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Is there much info on re-infection? People who have had covid before, and getting it again...

Is it less severe? And I mean with evidence not theory.

PS I'm going with a final circuit breaker lockdown in September
Yes. Reinfection generally less severe. Like everything in medicine though. There’s no absolutes. There are anecdotal reports of more severe symptoms the second time round. The other big trend is that the more severe the first infection the better the protection you have afterwards.

When it comes to reinfection, the variants are a bit of a cnut. The protection you get from an “original covid” infection isn’t great against some of the variants. This was a big issue in Brazil (and possibly India?) where a huge first wave of original covid should have given more protection to the population than it did.
 

Wibble

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The Delta variant is a nasty one. Only the second jab offers good protection.
Strategy the first half of the year was to get everyone the first jab as fast as possible and now they want to speed up the second.
Especially as vaccines are not as scarce in Europe as before. Thanks to the Americans for that, as a lot of them are vaccine sceptics, unused/unwanted Moderna vaccines are made availabe to Europe/Buyers.
In the Sydney outbreak we had a Delta super spreader event. Of 31 people at a party 24 have tested positive and 7 negative (not just asymptomatic or not getting severe covid). The 24 hadn't been vaccinated and the 7 had, with most only having their first shot. Just one event but hopefully it suggests the benefit of even a single AZ shot is higher than the lowest figure reported which I think is 33%.

Delta is certainly more infectious as we are having transmission from the most fleeting of contacts even outside and schools/kids seem to be harder hit than before.
 

hmchan

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I think you're mischaracterizing things a bit. The phase 3 trial results from Brazil were published in Lancet. Other results have come from the Chilean government, including the ones quoted above (which should have indicated source better).

Since the trials the levels of efficacy have shown to be lower than the vaccines used in the US and Europe. But back in January for a country like Brazil it was a choice between Sinovac or nothing at all. Only starting in June were AZ vaccines the most used in Brazil, and will mainly be AZ+Pfizer from here on out.

There's not really a pro-China stance of note in South America. Attitudes range more from neutral to suspicious. Certainly the traditional developed countries are given more credibility, so for example a vaccine approved by the US FDA or EU/UK equivalent can be granted approval for use in Brazil without local trials, but not for the Chinese equivalent. In the case of Sinovac however the trials had been conducted locally under supervision of the Brazilian FDA.
Sinovac lacks credibility because they fail to conduct a proper phase 3 trial, and they will never get an approval from the US FDA in this way. Brazil is (part of) their phase 3 trial but the results are shocking, and I still don't see the data on Lancet. The numbers from the Chile government can be served as a reference, but again it's not a proper study and it's just another broken piece on the Internet.

I've emphasized over and over again, Sinovac is better than nothing and I fully understand why it is a promising option (or the only option) for less wealthy countries. I'm just stating that while these underperforming vaccines (and diagnostic kits) may be life-savers in the short term, they are the major obstacles in ending this pandemic in the long run.
 

hmchan

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I'm not talking about effectiveness. It's about the blood clots. In my country, for all those under 40 years old who got the first AZ shot, their second shot is going to be the Pfizer one instead, because the AZ put some young males in the hospital with blood clots. (And it's not only in my country, many European countries took measures as well).

So, IF GIVEN THE CHANCE, just take another vaccine if you are a young man. If not, then just take the AZ of course. Chances are you will be Ok.



PS. In the last 2 weeks, Chile went from 60 thousand active cases, to 40 thousand active cases. ICU occupation also at it's lowest since early May. The situation starting to look better now that the majority of population had already their 2 shots. SINOVAC doesn't look too bad to me.
You cannot say for sure that Sinovac is safer than AZ though, because again there is no study to support its safety. It's also worth to note that most of Sinovac vaccines are used in less developed countries, where adverse events may not be systematically reported and investigated.
 

George Owen

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You cannot say for sure that Sinovac is safer than AZ though, because again there is no study to support its safety. It's also worth to note that most of Sinovac vaccines are used in less developed countries, where adverse events may not be systematically reported and investigated.
Not in Chile. The vaccine is safe.

But you know, I think the bad reputation comes precisely because it's been mostly deployed in less developed countries with sometimes, not the best conditions to deal with this kind of pandemic.

Under the same conditions, who is to say the pfizer vaccine wouldn't have had a few dead doctors as well? Who knows the viral load these doctors were exposed to regularly?

China wants the world to start moving again so I don't doubt they are trying to provide a product that works. My white tea took 3 months to arrive from China ffs.

A third booster shot might be necesary, but if it comes updated for the other variants, I guess it will be worth it. But a pain in the ass. I hope I don't have to take another one after my second one in a week (Pfizer).
 

Ecstatic

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I understand the symbolic meaning of the picture: our new master or ruler is the Covid.

An oppressive system flourishes when fear is generalised and human dehumanised.

The mask is the material representation of the fear illustrating the idea that our life is dictated by the disease, and no longer by our inner needs.

There is nothing controversial in this tweet but just find her pedantic when she writes "blocked at my discretion"...
 

Wibble

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There is nothing controversial in this tweet but just find her pedantic when she writes "blocked at my discretion"...
Unless you find her stupidity controversial. Likening an actual slave in chains and iron mask with people following health advice to help mitigate a pandemic is next level moronic.
 

Ecstatic

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Likening an actual slave in chains and iron mask with people following health advice to help mitigate a pandemic is next level moronic.
That is why, this picture is interesting because there are several forms of slavery:
  • What you would call "actual slavery" on the left
  • What I would call "symbolic slavery" on the right
I don't define slavery in a very restricted manner. For instance, I can be the slave of my passion, own ambition or the slave of an ideology (which can be good or bad). An addiction to something or someone can be also viewed as a form of slavery.

I am not somebody judgemental so I wouldn't call someone who likes or dislikes a picture a moron :angel:
 

Pogue Mahone

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https://www.thejournal.ie/cabinet-meeting-fully-vaccinated-indoor-dining-5480143-Jun2021/

Madness. NPHET have too much power. Imagine a pub owner having to check vaccination certs for everyone walking into their fecking establishment. I'm fine with a two week delay to indoor dining to get over 60's up to speed but that's just crazy.
Lots of pub/restaurant owners would prefer that to not allowing anyone in at all. It’s worked in other countries so why not here? I’ve never understood the pushback on “vaccine passports”. It seems absolutely nuts to prefer nobody spending money where it’s desperately needed unless everybody can.
 

Massive Spanner

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Lots of pub/restaurant owners would prefer that to not allowing anyone in at all. It’s worked in other countries so why not here? I’ve never understood the pushback on “vaccine passports”. It seems absolutely nuts to prefer nobody spending money where it’s desperately needed unless everybody can.
But why are we not allowing everyone in? You said yourself the delay would be to get over 60's vaccinated so if they are then what exactly is the problem? Indoor dining doesn't appear to be a problem in almost every other European country with vaccination rates similar to ours.
 

Pogue Mahone

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But why are we not allowing everyone in? You said yourself the delay would be to get over 60's vaccinated so if they are then what exactly is the problem? Indoor dining doesn't appear to be a problem in almost every other European country with vaccination rates similar to ours.
Uk is ahead of us in vaccine roll-out and going through exponential growth, with hospital admissions now starting to follow the increase in cases. They could be in deep shit over the next month or two. With much more back and forth travel between the two countries than the Uk and any other EU country you can see what the concern is.
 

Massive Spanner

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Uk is ahead of us in vaccine roll-out and going through exponential growth, with hospital admissions now starting to follow the increase in cases. They could be in deep shit over the next month or two. With much more back and forth travel between the two countries than the Uk and any other EU country you can see what the concern is.
The delta variant is already in most European countries though isn't it?

I'm curious as to what the solution is, if by 2 weeks we have almost most over 40's fully vaccinated yet still have these sort of restrictions, where do we go? Do we just keep listening to NPHET and impose restrictions endlessly? What's the endgame?

And seriously, why are we lagging so far behind the rest of Europe, is that really justifiable?
 

Pogue Mahone

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The delta variant is already in most European countries though isn't it?

I'm curious as to what the solution is, if by 2 weeks we have almost most over 40's fully vaccinated yet still have these sort of restrictions, where do we go? Do we just keep listening to NPHET and impose restrictions endlessly? What's the endgame?

And seriously, why are we lagging so far behind the rest of Europe, is that really justifiable?
I don’t know what the solution is either. I think NPHET are erring on the side of caution and I don’t think they’ll get their way. There’s going to be some sort of compromise. What’s going on right now is a media campaign to manage expectations. I hope hindsight eventually proves NPHET were being far too cautious. That wasn’t the case with the reopening at the end of last year but could be the case this time round.

And the way things got so badly out of hand, so quickly, in winter is the reason we’re not getting the same freedoms as other EU countries. I genuinely don’t know why this is but when we’re given those freedoms we seem to end up with dramatically worse outcomes. We went from the lowest cases per 100k in Europe to the highest, bar none. All in the space of a few weeks, with a much less infectious variant. That’s obviously a factor in the caution we’re seeing now.
 

Massive Spanner

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I don’t know what the solution is either. I think NPHET are erring on the side of caution and I don’t think they’ll get their way. There’s going to be some sort of compromise. What’s going on right now is a media campaign to manage expectations. I hope hindsight eventually proves NPHET were being far too cautious. That wasn’t the case with the reopening at the end of last year but could be the case this time round.

And the way things got so badly out of hand, so quickly, in winter is the reason we’re not getting the same freedoms as other EU countries. I genuinely don’t know why this is but when we’re given those freedoms we seem to end up with dramatically worse outcomes. We went from the lowest cases per 100k in Europe to the highest, bar none. All in the space of a few weeks, with a much less infectious variant. That’s obviously a factor in the caution we’re seeing now.
Well, no shit, that's my entire point. Their models are mental:
NPHET presented some stark warnings to Government last night - the most severe of which predicted hundreds of thousands of cases between July and September and more than 2,000 deaths as a result of Covid-19.
And yet (repost)
53 people under the age of 44 have died from covid from March last year to May this year. 20 people have died under the age of 34.
The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?

Not to mention Tony has a long history with absolutely hating the drinking culture in our country

EDIT: Oh, and supposedly there has been no independent review of NPHET's model which seems even more insane.
 

Massive Spanner

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@Pogue Mahone far more sensible approach?

"Ministers will also consider whether the Government should just issue advice to unvaccinated people urging them not to dine indoors."

Basically leave it to pub/restaurant owners to keep unvaccinated people outside if there's space and inside if there isn't, let them use their own judgement etc. - surely the way to go here.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Well, no shit, that's my entire point. Their models are mental:

And yet (repost)

The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?

Not to mention Tony has a long history with absolutely hating the drinking culture in our country

EDIT: Oh, and supposedly there has been no independent review of NPHET's model which seems even more insane.
Not sure if you meant to link a different article but there’s nothing wrong with what he said there. As per the bit of my post you didn’t respond to, we completely lost the run of ourselves in December. An increase in cases that was much worse than any other European country. And we both know we’re a nation of piss-heads. So it’s not a massive fecking leap to wonder if these two things might have been related.

For ages Thailand was one of the best countries in the world at keeping cases down. They banned the sale of alcohol completely.

The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?
Someone who is vaccinated (of any age) is a hell of a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus then someone who is not vaccinated. That’s the logic here. Obvious and simple.
 

Pogue Mahone

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@Pogue Mahone far more sensible approach?

"Ministers will also consider whether the Government should just issue advice to unvaccinated people urging them not to dine indoors."

Basically leave it to pub/restaurant owners to keep unvaccinated people outside if there's space and inside if there isn't, let them use their own judgement etc. - surely the way to go here.
A few beers and a shower of rain is all it takes to make that completely unworkable. Just as well we’re not big drinkers and have a dry climate…
 

Massive Spanner

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Not sure if you meant to link a different article but there’s nothing wrong with what he said there. As per the bit of my post you didn’t respond to, we completely lost the run of ourselves in December. An increase in cases that was much worse than any other European country. And we both know we’re a nation of piss-heads. So it’s not a massive fecking leap to wonder if these two things might be related.



Someone who is vaccinated (of any age) is a hell of a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus then someone who is not vaccinated. That’s the logic here. Obvious and simple.
What is there to respond to? Yes, we completely lost the run of ourselves. We went from being fully locked down to having everything open within the space of something like 2 or 3 weeks, it was always going to be a disaster. Also, we didn't have vaccines, we do now! It's a far cry from our current situation which is having a lot of society back open with the lowest ICU numbers and hospitalisations in a very long time, and, also, all the vulnerable people vaccinated. This isn't going from full restrictions to "EVERYONE DO WHAT THEY WANT", it's a phased reopening, the next step of which is to allow indoor dining! Surely you yourself can see the difference.
 

Pogue Mahone

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What is there to respond to? Yes, we completely lost the run of ourselves. We went from being fully locked down to having everything open within the space of something like 2 or 3 weeks, it was always going to be a disaster. Also, we didn't have vaccines, we do now! It's a far cry from our current situation which is having a lot of society back open with the lowest ICU numbers and hospitalisations in a very long time, and, also, all the vulnerable people vaccinated. This isn't going from full restrictions to "EVERYONE DO WHAT THEY WANT", it's a phased reopening, the next step of which is to allow indoor dining! Surely you yourself can see the difference.
The shit show in December was part of a phased reopening too. Look it, I’m being devil’s (i.e. NPHET) advocate here. My personal preference is to push out indoor dining by a couple of weeks (a month, at most) then see how things go from there. Looks like we might be lowering the age for people getting AZ/J&J which will help. I do think we’ll have a rough couple of months after we allow people back into pubs. Just like we’re seeing in the UK. But the numbers in the press this morning are the absolute worst case scenarios. The same NPHET model also has best case scenarios which look absolutely fine. What’s going to happen will be somewhere between those two extremes.