SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[fergies coat]

Well I don't agree it is a bit harsh.
The UK has had a pretty successful vaccination programme. And yet following lifting of the restrictions where the daily number of deaths was in the low tens and even single figures, we are firmly back to the highest in Europe with typically 150 per day.
That is the price of freedom.

So what do you do stay locked away forever? This thing isn't going away. People have been following government advice for nearly two years now.

 

[golden_blunder]

I think the attitude is it’s alright as long as it doesn’t come to my door! Crack on.

its selfish but I can understand those who are suffering from restrictions

what I don’t understand is those who haven’t done masks, vaccinations etc. In my opinion they have no right to complain. They’ve chosen to opt out society. You want the best of society but you opt out of the hard bits. Can’t have it both ways

 

[acnumber9]

So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.

Would you like everybody locked up forever?

 

[Brwned]

So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.

You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?

 

[jojojo]

Would you like everybody locked up forever?

I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.

 

[Buster15]

You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?

I always wear my face mask when I am inside in a crowded environment.
Takes hardly any time to put it on and feel that it is not worth the risk. Simple.

 

[Buster15]

I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.

Yes. Quite agree.

 

[acnumber9]

I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.

The people likely to engage in free for all’s weren’t likely to adhere to the previous rules though. Not to say that we shouldn’t expect people to have consideration for others and mask wearing in shops is a small price to pay for that. There are some who would have us in perpetual lockdown forever though.

 

[Buster15]

Would you like everybody locked up forever?

Didn't say that I wanted lockdowns. I still believe that with 30,000+ infections per day and the awful number of deaths, wearing a face covering is not too much to ask.

 

[Buster15]

So what do you do stay locked away forever? This thing isn't going away. People have been following government advice for nearly two years now.

Government advice is to be cautious.
Nobody is being even remotely cautious.

 

[golden_blunder]

You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?

Your response is a bit unlike you. Everything alright?

 

[acnumber9]

Didn't say that I wanted lockdowns. I still believe that with 30,000+ infections per day and the awful number of deaths, wearing a face covering is not too much to ask.

That wasn’t clear from your post when you mentioned concerts etc. No, it isn’t much to ask. It’s not going to drop those figures considerably though.

 

[jojojo]

Government advice is to be cautious.
Nobody is being even remotely cautious.

That's where I don't agree. Some people aren't being remotely cautious, but there's a massive amount of self-regulation going on. So far, after each surge event, we've seen people get tests and then we've seen the numbers fall back.

In particular if you look at England cases are lower now than they were at our "grand reopening" in mid July. They're rising again now as schools return, but not necessarily as a result of school - quite possibly just as a result of more LFTs picking up more asymptomatic/low symptom cases. The R rate as calculated by the ONS (who do random sampling) is currently more or less bang on 1 - which given delta's "no mitigation" R rate is thought to be around 6 actually shows a lot of restraint, in addition to vaccine impact.

The issue is what happens as people move indoors, windows close, students go to university. We need more focus on how to avoid spread beyond the initial infection location (mostly a question of testing and quarantine) and how to improve mitigations, particularly to protect the most vulnerable. I even think the much maligned covid app could make a comeback, now it asks you to get tested rather than go into quarantine irrespective of symptoms and circumstances - though it would need to be backed up by proper sickpay/support if it is followed by a positive test.

I actually think people are still willing to listen to the health messaging, they're just past the stage where they're willing to give up living a (closer to) normal life to do it.

 

[stw2022]

I’m still wearing masks indoors and outside too if crowded. I don't understand why the restriction couldn't be nominally in place, even though it has never been properly enforced. But the day where an 'acceptable' number of deaths would be reached was always going to come. It had to.

Over winter months the NHS is more overran by infectious, opportunistic diseases than it currently is with COVID yet who prior to 2020 ever called for pubs, bars, restaurants, cinemas and football stadiums to be locked down for months on end to avoid that?

 

[jojojo]

One for the stats geeks. Trying to model how case rates will move and the subsequent effects in terms of hospitalisations is notoriously difficult (as the biggest single missing variable is - how will people behave?) but this twitter thread looks at how things might develop. It comes from someone who is a statistician but takes the data from epidemiologists, PHE reports etc and as transparently as possible tries to show just how delicately balanced the situation is in the UK. He's actually got a good track record with his modelling efforts over the past year, and he's good at explaining how this type of modelling works and what are the limitations (which a lot of the SAGE/SPI-M teams aren't)

Spoiler alert: depending on what happens in terms on waning immunity and booster doses - outcomes vary massively, with somewhere between 10k and 50k deaths over the next few months. If you read the thread you'll get a sense of the juggling act that the scientists are doing to try and come in at the lower end of that, without trying to slam on the brakes in a way that neither the economy nor the population are likely to handle.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Brwned]

I always wear my face mask when I am inside in a crowded environment.
Takes hardly any time to put it on and feel that it is not worth the risk. Simple.

You did that before covid, when tens of thousands of people were dying from infectious diseases every year, spread in the same way?

Your response is a bit unlike you. Everything alright?

I think everyone should be a little bit outraged that it’s become so normalised to sneer at huge swathes of society, over and over again, for doing relatively normal things. Maybe it was justifiable when alarm bells were ringing and emotions were running high, and the commentary becomes less considered. But for that attitude to continue - the constant criticism of the other, mixed in with constant negativity branded as being realistic and scientifically-minded - that's some mixture of tragic and outrageous.

The most prominent voices in this thread a couple of months ago were convinced the UK's decision would lead to a catastrophe. Or the decision was being made in defiance of the data and basic logic. For example:

Up to you.
However, I made this statement having listened to a number of leading scientific and medical people saying that all the indications are that the surge in new Covid infections is highly likely to result in a significant increase in hospital admissions around the middle of August. This was based on 30% of UK population not having two full vaccinations plus the 10 days that the body needs to produce the required immunity.
Current hospital levels are increasing day on day and so are deaths.

Yet the hospitalisation levels in August were substantially lower than even the government's models predicted. Weeks and weeks of comments of impending doom, followed by a better-than-expected outcome and nothing close to the doom-mongering, and there's barely a peep.

It's not about being right or wrong - it's a complex situation with lots of uncertainties, so we should expect to be wrong frequently. But after going through that, and stepping into a reality where the house evidently isn't on fire, it seems reasonable to expect the sneering to stop. The moral highground doesn't make sense after that point. There's still lots of uncertainty so there's lots of potential ways to think about the problem, but tying it to some notion that your view is morally righteous, evidence based and simple common sense...that doesn't really hold. At which point it's worth considering the hypocrisy that comes with it to help bring a bit more realism to the discussion.

Buster came in here to disparage people that don't even have a chance to defend themselves, it wasn't prompted by any prior discussion, it was just yet another moment where someone felt like saying look how all these other people are doing the wrong thing, unlike me. I don't know how anyone can read that same kind of comment over and over and over again and not find it painful.

 

[golden_blunder]

@Brwned personally I think you’re being a bit harsh on the poster. This was an unprecedented event in our lifetime which rightly left most people afraid and questioning their government responses. Throw in that the U.K. government have shown a history of “winging” it and going by what the media are saying half the time.

so I don’t think that a post calling for people to continue to wear their masks in places like public transport etc and in general think about how they unlock the country rather than just throwing the doors open, warrants the response you gave him.

 

[Brwned]

@Brwned personally I think you’re being a bit harsh on the poster. This was an unprecedented event in our lifetime which rightly left most people afraid and questioning their government responses. Throw in that the U.K. government have shown a history of “winging” it and going by what the media are saying half the time.

so I don’t think that a post calling for people to continue to wear their masks in places like public transport etc and in general think about how they unlock the country rather than just throwing the doors open, warrants the response you gave him.

I think all of those things are reasonable. I still wear masks and think others should too. You can say that without saying “well it looks like the population are comfortable with all these people dying”, while gently pointing out how you’re better than that. They’re comfortable with it in the same way he was comfortable with it, in 2019. Infectious diseases killed tens of thousands of people every year simply because people went about their daily lives without doing things like wearing a mask. And it’s not like masks didn’t exist, we just looked at Asian travellers wearing them and thought…come on now, that’s a bit much. So if you want to shame people for taking an attitude that evidently comes so easily to us, you have to take the personal shame too. Or we could just try discussing ways to improve the world without shaming people.

 

[golden_blunder]

I really don’t think he’s shaming people. He’s asking why they have to go straight to full reopen

 

[stw2022]

France still mandates masks (I think) yet has higher number of people in hospital.

 

[Brwned]

I really don’t think he’s shaming people. He’s asking why they have to go straight to full reopen

But you can see how this comment strikes a different tone to the one you're offering, surely...

So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year

 

[McGrathsipan]

Have to take the kids (6 & 9) for a COVID test later today. Couple of confirmed cases in other classes at their school but they seemed ok till last night - warm, coughing, runny nose, sore tummy

Damn it - I hope they are ok.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

France still mandates masks (I think) yet has higher number of people in hospital.

But admissions are a third of the UK's, new cases are a third of the UK's and total vaccination is close to 70% against 65% UK; We also have Covid passports and we have some idiots who don't wear masks and also have antivaxxers spurred on mainly by the far right.

 

[Ecstatic]

You did that before covid, when tens of thousands of people were dying from infectious diseases every year, spread in the same way?

Buster came in here to disparage people that don't even have a chance to defend themselves, it wasn't prompted by any prior discussion, it was just yet another moment where someone felt like saying look how all these other people are doing the wrong thing, unlike me. I don't know how anyone can read that same kind of comment over and over and over again and not find it painful.

Buster is a boomer... so I am not surprised by what he wrote...

 

[stw2022]

But admissions are a third of the UK's, new cases are a third of the UK's and total vaccination is close to 70% against 65% UK; We also have Covid passports and we have some idiots who don't wear masks and also have antivaxxers spurred on mainly by the far right.

If the number of people in hospital in France is higher, how are hospital admissions lower?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If the number of people in hospital in France is higher, how are hospital admissions lower?

France has about 10k in hospital and UK 8k but admissions are around 300+ in France and 1000+ in the UK, maybe France don't chuck them out so quickly

 

[stw2022]

France has about 10k in hospital and UK 8k but admissions are around 300+ in France and 1000+ in the UK, maybe France don't chuck them out so quickly

Perhaps. But if figures were reversed I'm fairly sure the conclusion wouldn't be that France chuck them out too quickly.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Perhaps. But if figures were reversed I'm fairly sure the conclusion wouldn't be that France chuck them out too quickly.

But if the admissions in the Uk are over 1000 and only 8000 are in hospital that's an 8 day turnaround for every single one. Sounds odd.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?

It’s unreal how ignorant so many are to this when making claims of “people are happy for others to die”. I think looking from here the UK people have been extremely compliant with lockdowns and with vaccination rates.

No-one is happy about anyone dying, it’s just a fact of normal life for a social animal.

Buster knows full well that 30,000 or so die every year from flu (much higher in bad years), but would be outraged that 40,00 die from Covid?

 

[Buster15]

That wasn’t clear from your post when you mentioned concerts etc. No, it isn’t much to ask. It’s not going to drop those figures considerably though.

Not according to an eminent virologists I have listened to. She was pretty clear that simply wearing proper face coverings inside public places and on public transport would have a significant effect on transmission.
But I assume you know better?

 

[Buster15]

You did that before covid, when tens of thousands of people were dying from infectious diseases every year, spread in the same way?


I think everyone should be a little bit outraged that it’s become so normalised to sneer at huge swathes of society, over and over again, for doing relatively normal things. Maybe it was justifiable when alarm bells were ringing and emotions were running high, and the commentary becomes less considered. But for that attitude to continue - the constant criticism of the other, mixed in with constant negativity branded as being realistic and scientifically-minded - that's some mixture of tragic and outrageous.

The most prominent voices in this thread a couple of months ago were convinced the UK's decision would lead to a catastrophe. Or the decision was being made in defiance of the data and basic logic. For example:

Yet the hospitalisation levels in August were substantially lower than even the government's models predicted. Weeks and weeks of comments of impending doom, followed by a better-than-expected outcome and nothing close to the doom-mongering, and there's barely a peep.

It's not about being right or wrong - it's a complex situation with lots of uncertainties, so we should expect to be wrong frequently. But after going through that, and stepping into a reality where the house evidently isn't on fire, it seems reasonable to expect the sneering to stop. The moral highground doesn't make sense after that point. There's still lots of uncertainty so there's lots of potential ways to think about the problem, but tying it to some notion that your view is morally righteous, evidence based and simple common sense...that doesn't really hold. At which point it's worth considering the hypocrisy that comes with it to help bring a bit more realism to the discussion.

Buster came in here to disparage people that don't even have a chance to defend themselves, it wasn't prompted by any prior discussion, it was just yet another moment where someone felt like saying look how all these other people are doing the wrong thing, unlike me. I don't know how anyone can read that same kind of comment over and over and over again and not find it painful.

Oh really.
I was actually quoting facts. Facts that are in the public domain.
Maybe you should re-read my post, which is in the correct Covid thread.
If you don't agree with me, then that is your right.
And by the way. When were the public required to wear face coverings prior to the covid pandemic.

 

[golden_blunder]

Damn it - I hope they are ok.

Thanks. Hopefully just a common cold, they will be off at least 48hrs because even if not covid they have to stay out of school so they aren’t spreading it around

 

[golden_blunder]

It’s unreal how ignorant so many are to this when making claims of “people are happy for others to die”. I think looking from here the UK people have been extremely compliant with lockdowns and with vaccination rates.

No-one is happy about anyone dying, it’s just a fact of normal life for a social animal.

Buster knows full well that 30,000 or so die every year from flu (much higher in bad years), but would be outraged that 40,00 die from Covid?

Somewhere between 5m to 15m have died due to covid, either directly or it affecting your life expectancy, depending on what you read.
in just over a year.
I don’t find anything that buster has written warranting a double team attack simply because you both want to go back to normal now.
this is unprecedented.

 

[Ecstatic]

Somewhere between 5m to 15m have died due to covid, either directly or it affecting your life expectancy, depending on what you read.
in just over a year.

In the case of the UK, I find the following link quite interesting to put things in perspective
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...mofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

But you can see how this comment strikes a different tone to the one you're offering, surely...

No. There’s a direct line of sight there. Deaths are at 100-200 a day and people are living without caution.

We don’t have to both sides this. The callous and the idiots have won. Edit : Not calling you either of these.

You seem to be quite happy to write off several thousand additional deaths under the guise of ‘We have to open up sometime, we don’t mitigate for other transmissible disease’. Simply by Buster saying he’d keep mandated mitigation’s in place to ensure the death toll was as low as possible, he shows himself to be a more compassionate person. You are happy for more people to die than him. And me for that matter. That’s kind of ok. Oddly.

Have the courage of your convictions. If you think 70,000 a year instead of 40,000 is acceptable in exchange for unlimited freedom, do you. But don’t berate another for not being cool with bigger numbers.

If I were in charge I’d have;

- Extended indoor mask mandates until Spring for many events without adequate mitigation’s
- Required evidence of vaccination for indoor dining
- Mandated masks on all public transport
- Required evidence of a negative test inside 24 hours for those ‘risky’ events not requiring a mask.
- Lowered the cost of tests to £25 and have them centralised, out of Private companies hands.

I’ve seen this level of day to day ‘restriction’ in play in the last two months in France, Croatia, Hackney, Airports, Taxis. None of them are a big deal and all are easy to comply with. I’ll happily do them to see 10-30,000 people not die.

I’d then reset in Spring next year when we would hopefully be close to 90%+ vaccination and communicate plans centred around the newest facts, adequate ventilation and is probably ignore the dumbest people In The room instead of considering their voices to be valid simply because they voted for me.

 

[golden_blunder]

In the case of the UK, I find the following link quite interesting to put things in perspective
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...mofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

Thank you. Now imagine how many more there would have been if there had been no lockdowns, either from covid or other infectious diseases which didn’t have a chance to spread, road accidents etc. Safe to say it would have been 1m+

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Somewhere between 5m to 15m have died due to covid, either directly or it affecting your life expectancy, depending on what you read.
in just over a year.
I don’t find anything that buster has written warranting a double team attack simply because you both want to go back to normal now.
this is unprecedented.

Buster claimed the UK is “happy” for 40,000 people a year to die from Covid. My response is, Buster, and everyone else, including yourself have been “happy” to spread respiratory viruses that kill at similar rates to that (40,000 /year). That’s part of life.

No-one is arguing about the past 18 months.

 

[acnumber9]

Not according to an eminent virologists I have listened to. She was pretty clear that simply wearing proper face coverings inside public places and on public transport would have a significant effect on transmission.
But I assume you know better?

How much would it reduce transmission by? What are the current numbers of people wearing masks? We still have a mask mandate in Northern Ireland and our cases have been amongst the highest in the U.K.

 

[Buster15]

Buster claimed the UK is “happy” for 40,000 people a year to die from Covid. My response is, Buster, and everyone else, including yourself have been “happy” to spread respiratory viruses that kill at similar rates to that (40,000 /year). That’s part of life.

No-one is arguing about the past 18 months.

If you are going to quote me then please don't be quite as selective with what I posted.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

If you are going to quote me then please don't be quite as selective with what I posted.

Sorry…

Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.