SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

OleBoiii said:
For most of them their first legitimate chance to go back home was this summer. They all had different(but good) reasons to wait until Christmas. They also expected things to improve with the vaccine, of course.



Really? Even if it spreads as quickly as Delta did and the vaccines prove ineffective?
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Delta ran riot in India last summer and is only really starting to peak in Europe now. Plus there’s a much bigger flow of people back and forth (I think?) between India and Europe - than there is between Europe and South Africa.

If vaccines don’t give any protection at all then yeah, we’re screwed. I’m hopeful that boosted vaccines will give at least a reasonable level of protection. Time will tell.
 
McGrathsipan said:
We're back to square one
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We really aren't. We know a lot more about the mitigations that work and we know a lot more about vaccines and treatments. If it really is significantly better at evading the vaccine, then we'll be looking at another round of modified vaccines available as boosters within months. That is not square one.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Unfortunately that’s not true. There’s good reason to suggest vaccines will struggle against this one, based on what we know about its structure. Although that’s not yet been confirmed.
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Half glass empty then, or rinse & repeat? Every variant so far that's come out of the woodwork has been dramatically more transmissible than the next, each with the same hysteria, and all major vaccines proving effective in the end. Ultimately the immune invasion is the key point on the variant, BioNTech say they'll know in 2 weeks which will be the first key indicator.
 
jojojo said:
We really aren't. We know a lot more about the mitigations that work and we know a lot more about vaccines and treatments. If it really is significantly better at evading the vaccine, then we'll be looking at another round of modified vaccines available as boosters within months. That is not square one.
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I Hope so. I dread the idea of going back into lockdown
 
rpitroda said:
The case increase is interesting. The death one is rather odd because there is usually a time lag between case and death. The only potential explanation would be that the new variant has been in circulation for a while now.
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Having looked at the data SA are providing I'm a little more skeptical of that death data now. I think given the size and poverty of the country deaths might take more time categorise and report. If you delve down into a regional analysis of their daily reporting most new cases are coming from Gauteng, but that 114 death figure is mostly made up of cases coming from the neighbouring "North West" region.

I think they might've just announced a slew of deaths all at once and which are unrelated to the current outbreak. Either that or discovery of this new variant has led them to test more strenuously in Gauteng than they had been prior and elsewhere. Then, like you say, there's every chance the thing's been circulating for a while.
 
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F-Red said:
Half glass empty then, or rinse & repeat? Every variant so far that's come out of the woodwork has been dramatically more transmissible than the next, each with the same hysteria, and all major vaccines proving effective in the end. Ultimately the immune invasion is the key point on the variant, BioNTech say they'll know in 2 weeks which will be the first key indicator.
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Not about being half empty or full. It’s about science.

Think of it this way, you can put cake in a metal tin or a silicon one. The silicon one is flexible and therefore can adapt to fit a more varied shape of cake. Thankfully our vaccines teach us to create antibodies which are more like the silicon. They provide multiple spike protein reference points which mean our antibodies recognise them and target them. It means there is some flex to changes in the spike protein. Just like the silicon container is more flexible to different shapes than the metal, our vaccines allow us to be flexible to different spike proteins.

But within reason. You simply can’t fit something which is round into the silicon tin if it’s rectangle. Even with the flex. It’s the same here. If the spike protein changes so significantly (and in this case it has, which is why there is concern) the vaccines can suddenly very quickly become irrelevant.

It’s not a simple yes or no, though. There is varying degrees of recognition. It might still recognise a few parts of the protein and so some peoples bodies may recognise it and deal with it. Some won’t. This is how you end up with a reduction in overall vaccine effectiveness across a population.

So the key question is by how much the change in the spike protein will reduce effectiveness.
 
rpitroda said:
Not about being half empty or full. It’s about science.

Think of it this way, you can put cake in a metal tin or a silicon one. The silicon one is flexible and therefore can adapt to fit a more varied shape of cake. Thankfully our vaccines teach us to create antibodies which are more like the silicon. They provide multiple spike protein reference points which mean our antibodies recognise them and target them. It means there is some flex to changes in the spike protein. Just like the silicon container is more flexible to different shapes than the metal, our vaccines allow us to be flexible to different spike proteins.

But within reason. You simply can’t fit something which is round into the silicon tin if it’s rectangle. Even with the flex. It’s the same here. If the spike protein changes so significantly (and in this case it has, which is why there is concern) the vaccines can suddenly very quickly become irrelevant.

It’s not a simple yes or no, though. There is varying degrees of recognition. It might still recognise a few parts of the protein and so some peoples bodies may recognise it and deal with it. Some won’t. This is how you end up with a reduction in overall vaccine effectiveness across a population.

So the key question is by how much the change in the spike protein will reduce effectiveness.
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Counter to that, there is only so much the spike protein can change as it has to be able to invade human cells so it may have mutations but it can't change totally so its completely alien to vaccine/previous infection.

All currently sounds like a massive scare story will wait and see.
 
Bosws87 said:
Counter to that, there is only so much the spike protein can change as it has to be able to invade human cells so it may have mutations but it can't change totally so its completely alien to vaccine/previous infection.

All currently sounds like a massive scare story will wait and see.
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I think you’re right in that it is highly unlikely to become completely alien to a vaccine or previous infection. But doesn’t mean it can’t have a significant effect. Anyway my post wasn’t about creating doom, I’m fine with posts like yours (for example) if you believe that it’ll probably be fine. I disagree more with posts who fail to acknowledge there is risk and instead just put it to a straw man “he must just be a pessimist” argument.

I think we will see vaccine efficacy wane. But I am hopeful that with our vaccine rate, along with boosters, and continuing to push vaccine roll out globally, things should hopefully be fine with, at worst, mild restrictions in the interim between developing an updated vaccine and now.
 
Bosws87 said:
Counter to that, there is only so much the spike protein can change as it has to be able to invade human cells so it may have mutations but it can't change totally so its completely alien to vaccine/previous infection.

All currently sounds like a massive scare story will wait and see.
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Yeah that’s what keeps me sane and away from doom spirals of the virus getting fitter and fitter ad infinitum.

The worry with this one is that it’s almost a greatest hits of all the other variants so far. Mutations that have been proven to make prior variants better able to evade immune response or more transmissible, now combined into the same new variant. It wont necessarily be better at evading immunity than beta but beta’s immune evasion combined with delta’s transmissibility will be an almighty pain in the arse.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah that’s what keeps me sane and away from doom spirals of the virus getting fitter and fitter ad infinitum.

The worry with this one is that it’s almost a greatest hits of all the other variants so far. Mutations that have been proven to make prior variants better able to evade immune response or more transmissible, now combined into the same new variant.
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I hope it's more Now 94 than Now 2020 :(

How long did it take after Delta was discovered to (broadly) figure out how effective vaccines still were against it?
 
Massive Spanner said:
I hope it's more Now 94 than Now 2020 :(

How long did it take after Delta was discovered to (broadly) figure out how effective vaccines still were against it?
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Good question. I’m not actually sure. I don’t think vaccine resistance was a big issue for delta, so much as increased transmission. I think the main nasty surprise with delta re vaccines was how quickly protection waned. Which I don’t think is/was variant specific. It just wasn’t possible to know until fairly recently (when delta was dominant)
 
There's a confirmed case of the virus strain in Belgium now. I only got Norwegian news sources, but you'll probably find it on google.
 
rpitroda said:
I disagree more with posts who fail to acknowledge there is risk and instead just put it to a straw man “he must just be a pessimist” argument.
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Where have I failed to acknowledge risk? I've stated already that this will run like wildfire and I'm pretty much on the camp of lets see what comes back from the experts. What we've seen in this thread over the past couple of years is the hysteria around any new variant (Brazilian, South African etc), only for it to die down once the vaccines come back as being effective. If there's anything to levy then I'm probably putting confidence in the science/vaccines that will solve this. Given their track record, why wouldn't we be confident?
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yeah, you are right - only a question of discovering it. This needs a Greek letter name as well. I guess it will be the Epsilon variant?

It is really depressing, though. Seems like we will never get out ahead of this thing.
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tbf people were warning about this, by not vaccinating 3rd world countries we’d likely see new variants emerge from there..

Also, just my own thought, but South Africa might be the first country with the ability to sequence and detect new variants that this new one hit, it’s possible it’s been raging in bordering countries for a few weeks or months without people realising.
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
tbf people were warning about this, by not vaccinating 3rd world countries we’d likely see new variants emerge from there..

Also, just my own thought, but South Africa might be the first country with the ability to sequence and detect new variants that this new one hit, it’s possible it’s been raging in bordering countries for a few weeks or months without people realising.
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Yeah the person having it in Belgium wasn't in SA but Turkey and Egypt. So it's spreading properly already
 
South Africa now plunged into isolation and economic disarray when this variant is probably all over Europe as well. People calling for the scientist who decided to announce the new variant to be held personally liable :lol:
Honestly though, it is obvious this is all over the world - hopefully travel restrictions on South Africa will be lifted.
 
Champ said:
Thanks,

He is 8 years old,

The one thing that has really troubled me about this virus is how quick it went from no symptoms to full on.
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Well i hope that he beats it soon and fully. Poor little fella.

I got word from my sons school today that a kid in his pod is covid positive and his parents had sent him in whilst knowing he was positive. Disgusting! We actually got our son tested on Monday this week as he had a bad cough but it was negative. Thankfully it’s almost gone
 
Traub said:
South Africa now plunged into isolation and economic disarray when this variant is probably all over Europe as well. People calling for the scientist who decided to announce the new variant to be held personally liable :lol:
Honestly though, it is obvious this is all over the world - hopefully travel restrictions on South Africa will be lifted.
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What to potentially spread it around more?
 
stw2022 said:
The panic and fear went from 0-100 immediately with this didn’t it
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That’s actually reassuring…. if only because when people didn’t panic or take it seriously it really did screw the world wave 1 and then again late 2020 early 2021, so maybe now we’re all panicking it will actually just be nothing. Like the Brazilian strain which didn’t lead to much.
 
Traub said:
South Africa now plunged into isolation and economic disarray when this variant is probably all over Europe as well. People calling for the scientist who decided to announce the new variant to be held personally liable :lol:
Honestly though, it is obvious this is all over the world - hopefully travel restrictions on South Africa will be lifted.
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Travel stocks have plummeted pre market, kinda strange because they went up heavily on Wednesday. Yesterday US markets was closed due to thanks giving. Could be an overreaction, could be those that know making moves. Will have to see how mainstream investors reacts at 2:30pm U.K. time.
 
golden_blunder said:
What to potentially spread it around more?
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It's already spreading, will be all over the world within 2 months (if it isn't already), but only Southern Africa will be banned from travel and tourism.

As mentioned by many scientists, South Africa has been punished for providing forewarning - kind of incentivizes countries to not do the research if it is going to result in punishment, especially lower income countries.

Disclaimer: I'm obviously biased as I'm South African.
 
Traub said:
It's already spreading, will be all over the world within 2 months (if it isn't already), but only Southern Africa will be banned from travel and tourism.

As mentioned by many scientists, South Africa has been punished for providing forewarning - kind of incentivizes countries to not do the research if it is going to result in punishment, especially lower income countries.

Disclaimer: I'm obviously biased as I'm South African.
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They’ve banned another 5 countries near South Africa. It’s really the only logical thing until they understand more. Ignoring science
1) provides political protection if it becomes worse case scenario
2) if it doesn’t then no one cares and ban removed.
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
They’ve banned another 5 countries near South Africa. It’s really the only logical thing until they understand more. Ignoring science
1) provides political protection if it becomes worse case scenario
2) if it doesn’t then no one cares and ban removed.
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Theoretically you’re right but this happened before with Beta. When Delta became dominant in SA and displaced Beta (talking 95%+ of cases), SA required long quarantine periods - particularly in UK - for several months. It’s easy for a country to be put on a travel ban, but it takes a lot more for it to be removed.

I understand why other countries have done it, but I think there is a big risk that lower income countries will stop researching due to political and economic pressure.
 
Traub said:
Latest I've heard, obviously changing by the hour:
  • More contagious than Delta
  • More likely to evade immediate immune response i.e. higher risk of infection, and particularly re-infection for those with natural immunity
  • T-cells are key, and likely to protect against severe infection (hospitalisation and death)
Bottom line: we won't know for several weeks, but first signs are vaccination is key.
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This is interesting. The other day AZ CEO was claiming/speculating that the reason hospitalisations are not as servere in the UK as they are in Europe (I don't know if this is true?) is that the AZ vaccine is superior to the mRNA vaccines when it comes to T-Cells in the elderly. I mean he would say that but in the event that this varient is at work in Europe already then it might add some weight to this theory.
 
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