Deepti Gurdasani would want us to stop kids going to school because of potential meteor strikes after seeing Armageddon.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Omicron, not the transformer you wanted for Christmas.
This is really helpful - thank you. I guess the question really therefore is, what element of a vaccine are we most concerned about for side effects / risk. If it’s the base ingredients, presumably these would remain consistent so this would help. If the actual “active” element, then potentially more of an issue? What would the risk be? Presumably that the body may react to the different mRNA in a different way, misinterpreting it (for example) causing some other than intended effect?
There's antibody dependant enhancement ADE which was a worry which luckily hasn't been the case with the vaccines
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91648
I suppose its possible that any new immunogenic target has side effects unintended.
Drug trials I think can pick up severe reactions and I think MHRA and most other drug regulators would want some form of studies to assess safety (which is quicker I'd imagine than longer term efficacy trials), ever since the Northwick Park drug trial disaster
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22556736
The former. As our cases started to go up again, the new measures were introduced. Really, it's pretty hard to have any kind of social life at all if you're not vaccinated. The line that's being taken is that the vaccinated will not lose out because of the minority who won't get the vaccine. I think that kind of works for most people, it's seen as fair.
Israel are voting on whether to shut borders but interesting tidbit from the article:
“Encouraging Israelis to continue to get vaccinated, the prime minister says that “the indications are that the vaccine prevents serious illness” from the Omicron variant and that “the booster is very significant for protection against serious illness.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...t-israel-must-take-caution-and-minimum-risks/
“Encouraging Israelis to continue to get vaccinated, the prime minister says that “the indications are that the vaccine prevents serious illness” from the Omicron variant and that “the booster is very significant for protection against serious illness.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...t-israel-must-take-caution-and-minimum-risks/
Already two cases in Munich, yipes.
I am reading though that it is more infectious but less severe than Delta. Which if true, it is pretty good news. It will eradicate a more deadly strain, while hurting less people.
I am reading though that it is more infectious but less severe than Delta. Which if true, it is pretty good news. It will eradicate a more deadly strain, while hurting less people.
Theoretically yes in the longer term, but in the shorter term it depends right. Say it’s doubly transmissible but 10% less lethal - you’d still see a death spike simply cos more people are getting it vs the decline in severity. Of course we don’t know either yet. But agreed that for the longer term evolution of this virus any strain which reduces severity of illness is a good thing.
I think doubly transmissible compared to Delta is kinda impossible. That would put it around measles level.
The doctors in South Africa are saying that the cases are extremely mild compared to previous versions of Covid (S Africa was mostly hit by the original strain, Beta and Delta). Of course this needs to be confirmed with large population studies, instead of anecdotal evidence.
The Government, health officials and the media, have been saying the “4th Wave is coming”,
Even claiming that it will arrive around the 2nd - 4th December ?
Really, I live in South Africa, and we are so stunned that this spiked so much in one day!
Something is not right here.
Oh and buy the way those claims where made in October,
So can you exactly state the start of a new variant?
Really?
Even claiming that it will arrive around the 2nd - 4th December ?
Really, I live in South Africa, and we are so stunned that this spiked so much in one day!
Something is not right here.
Oh and buy the way those claims where made in October,
So can you exactly state the start of a new variant?
Really?
Why couldn’t it be measles level?
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It’s March 2020 again
So OmicronIn DeltaOut?
It was an arbitrary figure as an example, the same principal applies if it was 1.2x more transmissible and 0.95x lethal. And in any case, there is no scientific reason that it couldn’t be as or more transmissible than measles. Highly unlikely. And certainly this variant will not be. But down the road who knows.
Cause it is the disease with the highest R0 kinda ever, so no reason why any variant of covid would be as effective at spreading. Furthermore, from what I read, the genetic structure of it means that it is unlikely for covid to become to become far more able to get spread than it currently is.
I’m due to fly to France on holiday in 2 weeks. What are the odds of this being a problem? Very worrying to read and hear about :/
Are you suggesting what I think you're suggesting?
So is the latest from South Africa that those becoming seriously unwell are in the lower age bracket and not fully vaccinated?
Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
Start at A again maybe?
NSW and Victoria just reintroduced home quarantine for vaccinated arrivals again only 3 days at this stage but ......
@jojojo @Pogue Mahone
Is there data on heart risk from the booster? I'm eligible now since I'm teaching in January, and only Moderna is available, and I know it has higher risk than Pfizer.
Is there data on heart risk from the booster? I'm eligible now since I'm teaching in January, and only Moderna is available, and I know it has higher risk than Pfizer.
All I got to say, get an effing vaccine. I took a vaccine, my wife - the naturalist - did not. She is now considerably sick, and I am fine. I am not without symptoms as I have a scratchy throat but she is 18 hours in bed during the day with fewer, chills and an ugly cough. I hope it doesn't spread to her lungs... As a passive wimp I was, now I have to sh1t my pants every day that her condition will get worse, instead of really going hard on her to get a vaccine.
My friend lost his mother, only 62. Healthy woman, normal weight...
I have to say I was skeptical a bit about vaccines at the beginning but once few coworkers got it and they were fine I just did it as well. This thing is tricky and there is no way knowing what kind of illness you gonna get if you are not vaccinated, it might be your last illness.
My friend lost his mother, only 62. Healthy woman, normal weight...
I have to say I was skeptical a bit about vaccines at the beginning but once few coworkers got it and they were fine I just did it as well. This thing is tricky and there is no way knowing what kind of illness you gonna get if you are not vaccinated, it might be your last illness.
hope everything turns out fine for your wife and yourself! And yes, vaccination benefits outweigh risks by far compared with covid and its risks.
Cases have really been skyrocketing here and seem to be a lot higher and closer to my family and I than last year. All of them double or triple vaccinated around 30 years old. Unfortunately I will have to attend some business soon which will involve traveling (not international), which kind of sucks. It’s not postponable so I am pissed about it. I was kind of getting used to the lax summer lifestyle but I am now a lot more worried than I was during the earlier stages of the pandemic.
Too early to tell. The variant only just started spreading, and it started in younger people. Further, vaccination rates are relatively low (25%). It’s holiday season here in about two weeks, so the real world data will be out soon.
I’ve read nothing about myocarditis risk with boosters. I do know that a single dose or wider spacing was seen as a way to reduce risk when vaccinating younger kids. So a single dose 6 months after your last one has to be about as safe as possible.
There’s also been very little talk about it over the last month or so despite loads of countries vaccinating kids. Which is where you would expect the most issues. So that’s reassuring too.
Got a wedding in two weeks. Staying in a small country pub. You just know everyone will get Covid. I thought that even before this new variant came around.
@berbatrick
The Moderna booster is half their normal standard dose which brings the quantity of active ingredients (the mRNA) down to a similar sort of amount to what you get in a Pfizer shot.
In theory (and in their booster trial) the reduced dosage does reduce the number of side effects, but I don't think there have yet been enough Moderna boosters used anywhere in the world to give the myocarditis incidence rates per million for different age groups etc.
With the standard Moderna - 2 x full dose - the risks are low if you're over 30. If you're under 30 the risks are higher but the risk of myocarditis following covid are still worse than the risks following vaccination.
The Moderna booster is half their normal standard dose which brings the quantity of active ingredients (the mRNA) down to a similar sort of amount to what you get in a Pfizer shot.
In theory (and in their booster trial) the reduced dosage does reduce the number of side effects, but I don't think there have yet been enough Moderna boosters used anywhere in the world to give the myocarditis incidence rates per million for different age groups etc.
With the standard Moderna - 2 x full dose - the risks are low if you're over 30. If you're under 30 the risks are higher but the risk of myocarditis following covid are still worse than the risks following vaccination.
It's too early for us to say much. The cases so far are mostly in the under 25s and mostly mild to moderate. We've also heard of fully vaccinated cases with zero to mild symptoms.
But that may just be because of who's currently catching covid. It's spreading fastest in the under 30s in SA and they only occasionally end up in hospital. It won't be until we hear what happens if it spreads into the over 40s and the people with other risk factors that we'll know how severe it really is and how well the vaccines are doing.
The thread below links to some of the most up to date SA data. Incidentally, SA are very open with their data - and they must already feel like they're being punished for being honest.
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It’s a really important point. Israel Chief Medical Officer has just said there are no severe cases within fully vaccinated people - the cases are very mild - hopefully that holds up but it’s far too soon to know. I think what is looking likely is the vaccine efficacy at stopping infection is going to be low which just confirms what most of us knew - this thing is endemic. Boosters for everyone before a tweaked 4th shot comes online next May would be my guess.
Agree about endemic.
Time will tell if we will need a tweaked 4th shot. But it's a good guess if not this then another variant will need a tweaked booster.
I am not really suggesting anything, but trying to understand the science behind this and how the numbers can jump up so much.
Panic has hit a lot of people here in South Africa, talks and government suggestions about harder lockdowns, no interprovincial travel, total ban on alcohol ( Bottle stores here are been overrun and stocks are running out ),
Increasing the curfew etc.
The holiday season is almost upon us, and a lot of people have made Festive Season plans.
I own a restaurant and am dreading this new 4th wave lockdown coming, December is always my best business month of the year, and last years lockdown, imposed from just before Christmas, was terrible for business.
I'm still struggling with this business of the Netherlands picking up 61 positive PCR tests from 600 people arriving on two flights from SA.
If there's no special reason why those flights were particularly likely to be carrying infected people then you have to wonder just how many cases are already in Europe and what the actual infection rate is in SA. I'm hoping that there's a logical explanation - a big party they all went to or something, otherwise it's a really weird sample or demonstrates a shockingly high prevalence.
Incidentally they've already confirmed by sequencing that 13 of the positive cases are omicron. I don't think they've finished sequencing all 61 cases though.
I did wonder why people just got waved through at Heathrow (without so much as a LFT). Unless there is something quirky about those Schiphol flights, that's a lot of people who are going home (by what transport?) and will test positive in a couple of days. It also begs the question of why the idea of "on the day" pre-flight LFTs got dropped. How many people on those Amsterdam flights got infected during their flight?
If there's no special reason why those flights were particularly likely to be carrying infected people then you have to wonder just how many cases are already in Europe and what the actual infection rate is in SA. I'm hoping that there's a logical explanation - a big party they all went to or something, otherwise it's a really weird sample or demonstrates a shockingly high prevalence.
Incidentally they've already confirmed by sequencing that 13 of the positive cases are omicron. I don't think they've finished sequencing all 61 cases though.
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I did wonder why people just got waved through at Heathrow (without so much as a LFT). Unless there is something quirky about those Schiphol flights, that's a lot of people who are going home (by what transport?) and will test positive in a couple of days. It also begs the question of why the idea of "on the day" pre-flight LFTs got dropped. How many people on those Amsterdam flights got infected during their flight?
Let me channel my inner @Wibble and mention a meaningless anecdote about a thing that happened near me. There were 26 positives from 157 passengers on a flight from Skopje to Turku in Aug 2020, so even before Alfa. I wouldn't put any merit on stats about couple of flights. As you said, can be a party or tour group or whatever.
Only discovered this morning that 95% of South Africa’s population is < 65! That’s going to make it very difficult to get a handle on severity in elderly/vulnerable patients.
I thought we spoke about this a long time ago, as to why Africa as a continent was far less effected and likely to ever be effected by Covid like “The West”.
Very few oldies.
I'm hoping to hear that there was a block booking of cruise ship passengers or something similar to account for the high case rate. In which case the world gets a great case study of infection in vaccinated people very quickly and without some of the implications of that being a genuinely random sample. Optimist goggles engaged.
Yeah, I know. India and Brazil too. Didn’t realise quite how few oldies they have though. All of which means there’s not much reassurance to be had from their ICUs not being slammed yet.
They announced the change in PCR rules as my girlfriend was literally on a plane to Sierra Leone for a funeral. She was planning on getting a train back from the airport in 2 weeks. No idea what the plan is now that she has to isolate pending PCR result
25% vaccination rate in South Africa. Wonder how many vaccinated on that flight?