I liked the personal judgement and self responsibility of the past 4 months which I think a lot didn’t understand. I have a mask, or scarf etc at all times. If the train/bus is not busy and I can keep my distance then I didn’t wear it, if it’s busy and I have to be near people then i wear it or cover my mouth with my scarf. But sadly a lot of people missed that and so often on busy busses/trains No one would be wearing masks or covering
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Well, the hospitals wouldn't be overburdened. There are only 19k active cases in the whole country.
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Where's "affluent"?
I think he edited the post, maybe @Damien can see.
He did but the edit history has been removed. Might be an automatic thing which happens after a period of time.
Not having affluent in it is like Caesar saying "I came. I saw."
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Was thinking about that earlier. A variant that is much more infective and causes much less serious disease is our golden ticket. Could end this pandemic quicker than vaccination.
I take your point with it being early to tell. With delta though it became obvious soon not just how transmissible it was but how much sicker people were in general with it, and in higher proportions of population being unwell in addition to increased hospital stays/ITU requirements so we'll see how this one behaves.
With transmissibility high, it should be easier and quicker to start clinically extrapolating from its cases. Which I guess might guide policy. With delta it was borderline criminal how slow we were to react to high number of cases in terms of border control etc.
Sarah Gilbert said a while back (after Delta was established) that newer variants would likely be less able to evade vaccines and less likely to cause severe illness.
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-vari...-more-severe-oxford-jab-sarah-gilbert-1212744
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-vari...-more-severe-oxford-jab-sarah-gilbert-1212744
If I remember correctly, I think part of the reason for the slow response to quarantine/travel restrictions with Delta was Boris was trying to get the trade deal done with India so didn't want to jeopardise that - in the end they introduced the travel restrictions with India weeks later than they should've. There's no such politics at play this time round so they've actually managed to take the necessary precautions without delay.
It’s amazing how things have changed so significantly in like 3 days. Not the rules, but general concern and outlook re. Covid. Here’s hoping that upon further data we aren’t talking about a complete game changer.
The reason this variant has so many experts spooked is that it’s a sudden, radical change. Twice the number of mutations as Delta. Which is basically what she predicted wouldn’t happen.
Still, though. I’m going to cling to the idea that this might cause less severe illness than Delta. That would be amazing news and the possibility will help me sleep at night.
Whilst it may have played a factor I do think it’s probably a bit OTT to suggest this really drove decisions I think? I think the concern overall about Delta was significantly less at the time, because of the nature of the changes compared to this one. I also think they just got it wrong and this time they’ve finally learnt. Maybe I’m being too generous to the clown.
I got told off for calling her a dick head for saying that. Seemed like a stupid prediction at the time and still does now.
Why do people believe in these so-called experts?
I think another reason to be positive is that whilst it is expected that vaccine ability to prevent infection may well be impacted, even significantly, there is a lot of people saying that they still expect vaccines to do a good job at preventing serious illness. It’s not ideal - but still potentially good news because whilst we may say cases rise (if indeed the worst fears are realised, there may not be an equally corresponding impact on hospitalisation and death rates.
I have a question for any vaccine experts. If the mRNA vaccines require tweaking to better target this new variant, what does that really mean in a practical sense? To what extent does that “change” the vaccine? I ask because for example the flu vaccine is changed each year but doesn’t go through trials and approvals before use, right (correct me if wrong?) to the same degree as a new vaccine each time. And I presume that has something to do with the underlying “base” of the vaccine remaining consistent? Obviously I know it’s a different type of vaccine to mRNA, but I guess my question is how extensive is the change?
The clue is in the dictionary definition of the word “expert”.
Here in Italy, mask-wearing has never stopped and I'd say there's 100% compliance where I live. You'd be challenged if you didn't wear one.
The government is putting some regions back in yellow measures (masks have to be worn outside too), but the main push is the new Super Green Pass - you basically can't do anything fun unless you've been vaccinated or have recently had Covid. The option to take a test to get a short-lasting Green Pass is being removed, except for going to work.
Is that as a response to the overall spike in cases in Europe as a whole, or specifically due to Omicron?
She didn't predict it as such. She said it was unlikely i.e. still possible but not probable.
I'm not sure what the threshold for 'evading immunity' is though, is generating T-Cells as a result of the vaccine to fight off serious illness not still classed as an immune response, rather than simply blocking infection?
Also how do we know it was a sudden change? Is there not a theory that actually this was several smaller mutations amalgamating in someone who simply could not get rid of the virus? I.e we aren’t talking delta to omicron, but a number of small mutations to build to omicron? I think that’s an important fact to establish.
Well she was hugely important in the development of a vaccine which has saved countless lives. Maybe start there?
That’s a great question. And you’re right. Vaccines for new influenza variants don’t go through as many regulatory loopholes as a new vaccine. I know that they’re actively looking into whether vaccines for covid variants can be fast-tracked in the same way. The reason this isn’t an easy decision is because influenza vaccines have been around for decades so have a much larger amount of safety data available compared to these new vaccines.
Hope I’m wrong but I don’t think there’s much hope it’s less pathogenic if this is to believed (the bottom tweet). It does seem to be hospitalising young people. Not many double vaccinated but it looks like it is spreading in younger age groups where I doubt the proportion of double vaccinated is high so I don’t think much can be read into that yet.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Looking at South Africa covid data..(not sure how up to date)
275 Cases (7 day rolling average) on 13th Nov.
3459 cases ( 7 day rolling average) on 26th July
An aprox 12 fold increase in 13 days is pretty fast compared to over peaks where 12 fold increases starting from a rolling average of around 800-1000 usually takes 4-6 weeks
275 Cases (7 day rolling average) on 13th Nov.
3459 cases ( 7 day rolling average) on 26th July
An aprox 12 fold increase in 13 days is pretty fast compared to over peaks where 12 fold increases starting from a rolling average of around 800-1000 usually takes 4-6 weeks
That makes sense. But surely a factor is also what you’re actually changing? If the vaccine is exactly the same in terms of overall compound and delivery and all that is being tweaked is the “signal” then that’s very different to any fundamental change needed. A bit like do you just need to turn the dial to find a new radio station, or do you need to change the actual radio. Sorry best example I could think of
That’s pretty scary.
Balls. Sleepless nights it is. “Marked change in demographic” is a worry.
But it's good news for the double vaxxers, right?
Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
Early days, but data suggests that the vaccines are not being evaded. This assumption can change at any time, of course.Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
Without having the data we don’t really know what it suggests. Firstly the raw numbers are going to be small. Secondly, they say most have been unvaccinated/single dosed so people have been hospitalised after two doses. And thirdly only 25% of SA population have had two doses and even less in the age range it is spreading. You wouldn’t expect many to be double jabbed at this stage anyway even if the vaccines were literally useless. God knows I’m all for optimism but I think Chise is reaching here.
You're extinguishing my flickering flame of hope with your cold logic.
If you’re missing anything at all it’s the fact that Chise could look out her window and see a meteor moments from wiping out North America only to immediately hop on Twitter and tell everyone not to worry, we’ll all be grand.Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
Its how the drug approval regulatory authorities will react. This is a fairly unique situation. Flu vaccines are a good analogy as we tweak them regularly.That makes sense. But surely a factor is also what you’re actually changing? If the vaccine is exactly the same in terms of overall compound and delivery and all that is being tweaked is the “signal” then that’s very different to any fundamental change needed. A bit like do you just need to turn the dial to find a new radio station, or do you need to change the actual radio. Sorry best example I could think of
Covid vaccines use different mechanism. The Sinopharm, sinovac use the whole virus (in an inactivated form). The mRNAs Moderna and Pfizer use the mRNA which causes production of spike protein in cells for immune system to recognise. And others like Astrazeneca use a weakened common cold virus as a vector to introduce the spike protein as the immunogen.
For me the single unifying theme across all of the covid vaccines is how remarkably safe they've been, with variable efficacy. That's pretty much proof of concept, for me, that utilising the spike protein (regardless of what mutations its got) is a safe, if variably effective, way of vaccinating against SARS-COV2. Whether the MHRA, FDA, EMA sees it the same way I don't know. I think a basic phase I,II type safety trial with volunteers for reactogenicity should suffice but who knows
Vaccines have different preservative ingredients that are fairly static and there's some patients who have allergic reactions to but these are known and managed with avoiding said ingredients if possible and giving vaccines after consulting with allergy specialists and with anaphylaxis kits everready (which to be fair they are in most vaccine centres)