Is that as a response to the overall spike in cases in Europe as a whole, or specifically due to Omicron?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
She didn't predict it as such. She said it was unlikely i.e. still possible but not probable.
I'm not sure what the threshold for 'evading immunity' is though, is generating T-Cells as a result of the vaccine to fight off serious illness not still classed as an immune response, rather than simply blocking infection?
Also how do we know it was a sudden change? Is there not a theory that actually this was several smaller mutations amalgamating in someone who simply could not get rid of the virus? I.e we aren’t talking delta to omicron, but a number of small mutations to build to omicron? I think that’s an important fact to establish.
Well she was hugely important in the development of a vaccine which has saved countless lives. Maybe start there?
That’s a great question. And you’re right. Vaccines for new influenza variants don’t go through as many regulatory loopholes as a new vaccine. I know that they’re actively looking into whether vaccines for covid variants can be fast-tracked in the same way. The reason this isn’t an easy decision is because influenza vaccines have been around for decades so have a much larger amount of safety data available compared to these new vaccines.
Hope I’m wrong but I don’t think there’s much hope it’s less pathogenic if this is to believed (the bottom tweet). It does seem to be hospitalising young people. Not many double vaccinated but it looks like it is spreading in younger age groups where I doubt the proportion of double vaccinated is high so I don’t think much can be read into that yet.
Looking at South Africa covid data..(not sure how up to date)
275 Cases (7 day rolling average) on 13th Nov.
3459 cases ( 7 day rolling average) on 26th July
An aprox 12 fold increase in 13 days is pretty fast compared to over peaks where 12 fold increases starting from a rolling average of around 800-1000 usually takes 4-6 weeks
275 Cases (7 day rolling average) on 13th Nov.
3459 cases ( 7 day rolling average) on 26th July
An aprox 12 fold increase in 13 days is pretty fast compared to over peaks where 12 fold increases starting from a rolling average of around 800-1000 usually takes 4-6 weeks
That makes sense. But surely a factor is also what you’re actually changing? If the vaccine is exactly the same in terms of overall compound and delivery and all that is being tweaked is the “signal” then that’s very different to any fundamental change needed. A bit like do you just need to turn the dial to find a new radio station, or do you need to change the actual radio. Sorry best example I could think of
That’s pretty scary.
But it's good news for the double vaxxers, right?
Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
Early days, but data suggests that the vaccines are not being evaded. This assumption can change at any time, of course.Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
Without having the data we don’t really know what it suggests. Firstly the raw numbers are going to be small. Secondly, they say most have been unvaccinated/single dosed so people have been hospitalised after two doses. And thirdly only 25% of SA population have had two doses and even less in the age range it is spreading. You wouldn’t expect many to be double jabbed at this stage anyway even if the vaccines were literally useless. God knows I’m all for optimism but I think Chise is reaching here.
You're extinguishing my flickering flame of hope with your cold logic.
Yeah I also think the fact the entire world is reacting in this way tells me they’ve already modelled what these changes mean and the results aren’t good. Apparently Israel are about to shut their border to all foreigners. In saying that Chise seems to have read that South African data and thinks it’s good news so maybe I’m missing something
If you’re missing anything at all it’s the fact that Chise could look out her window and see a meteor moments from wiping out North America only to immediately hop on Twitter and tell everyone not to worry, we’ll all be grand.
That makes sense. But surely a factor is also what you’re actually changing? If the vaccine is exactly the same in terms of overall compound and delivery and all that is being tweaked is the “signal” then that’s very different to any fundamental change needed. A bit like do you just need to turn the dial to find a new radio station, or do you need to change the actual radio. Sorry best example I could think of
Its how the drug approval regulatory authorities will react. This is a fairly unique situation. Flu vaccines are a good analogy as we tweak them regularly.
Covid vaccines use different mechanism. The Sinopharm, sinovac use the whole virus (in an inactivated form). The mRNAs Moderna and Pfizer use the mRNA which causes production of spike protein in cells for immune system to recognise. And others like Astrazeneca use a weakened common cold virus as a vector to introduce the spike protein as the immunogen.
For me the single unifying theme across all of the covid vaccines is how remarkably safe they've been, with variable efficacy. That's pretty much proof of concept, for me, that utilising the spike protein (regardless of what mutations its got) is a safe, if variably effective, way of vaccinating against SARS-COV2. Whether the MHRA, FDA, EMA sees it the same way I don't know. I think a basic phase I,II type safety trial with volunteers for reactogenicity should suffice but who knows
Vaccines have different preservative ingredients that are fairly static and there's some patients who have allergic reactions to but these are known and managed with avoiding said ingredients if possible and giving vaccines after consulting with allergy specialists and with anaphylaxis kits everready (which to be fair they are in most vaccine centres)
Deepti Gurdasani would want us to stop kids going to school because of potential meteor strikes after seeing Armageddon.
Omicron, not the transformer you wanted for Christmas.
This is really helpful - thank you. I guess the question really therefore is, what element of a vaccine are we most concerned about for side effects / risk. If it’s the base ingredients, presumably these would remain consistent so this would help. If the actual “active” element, then potentially more of an issue? What would the risk be? Presumably that the body may react to the different mRNA in a different way, misinterpreting it (for example) causing some other than intended effect?
There's antibody dependant enhancement ADE which was a worry which luckily hasn't been the case with the vaccines
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91648
I suppose its possible that any new immunogenic target has side effects unintended.
Drug trials I think can pick up severe reactions and I think MHRA and most other drug regulators would want some form of studies to assess safety (which is quicker I'd imagine than longer term efficacy trials), ever since the Northwick Park drug trial disaster
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22556736
The former. As our cases started to go up again, the new measures were introduced. Really, it's pretty hard to have any kind of social life at all if you're not vaccinated. The line that's being taken is that the vaccinated will not lose out because of the minority who won't get the vaccine. I think that kind of works for most people, it's seen as fair.
Israel are voting on whether to shut borders but interesting tidbit from the article:
“Encouraging Israelis to continue to get vaccinated, the prime minister says that “the indications are that the vaccine prevents serious illness” from the Omicron variant and that “the booster is very significant for protection against serious illness.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...t-israel-must-take-caution-and-minimum-risks/
“Encouraging Israelis to continue to get vaccinated, the prime minister says that “the indications are that the vaccine prevents serious illness” from the Omicron variant and that “the booster is very significant for protection against serious illness.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...t-israel-must-take-caution-and-minimum-risks/
Already two cases in Munich, yipes.
I am reading though that it is more infectious but less severe than Delta. Which if true, it is pretty good news. It will eradicate a more deadly strain, while hurting less people.
I am reading though that it is more infectious but less severe than Delta. Which if true, it is pretty good news. It will eradicate a more deadly strain, while hurting less people.
Theoretically yes in the longer term, but in the shorter term it depends right. Say it’s doubly transmissible but 10% less lethal - you’d still see a death spike simply cos more people are getting it vs the decline in severity. Of course we don’t know either yet. But agreed that for the longer term evolution of this virus any strain which reduces severity of illness is a good thing.
I think doubly transmissible compared to Delta is kinda impossible. That would put it around measles level.
The doctors in South Africa are saying that the cases are extremely mild compared to previous versions of Covid (S Africa was mostly hit by the original strain, Beta and Delta). Of course this needs to be confirmed with large population studies, instead of anecdotal evidence.
The Government, health officials and the media, have been saying the “4th Wave is coming”,
Even claiming that it will arrive around the 2nd - 4th December ?
Really, I live in South Africa, and we are so stunned that this spiked so much in one day!
Something is not right here.
Oh and buy the way those claims where made in October,
So can you exactly state the start of a new variant?
Really?
Even claiming that it will arrive around the 2nd - 4th December ?
Really, I live in South Africa, and we are so stunned that this spiked so much in one day!
Something is not right here.
Oh and buy the way those claims where made in October,
So can you exactly state the start of a new variant?
Really?
Why couldn’t it be measles level?
So OmicronIn DeltaOut?
It was an arbitrary figure as an example, the same principal applies if it was 1.2x more transmissible and 0.95x lethal. And in any case, there is no scientific reason that it couldn’t be as or more transmissible than measles. Highly unlikely. And certainly this variant will not be. But down the road who knows.
Cause it is the disease with the highest R0 kinda ever, so no reason why any variant of covid would be as effective at spreading. Furthermore, from what I read, the genetic structure of it means that it is unlikely for covid to become to become far more able to get spread than it currently is.
I’m due to fly to France on holiday in 2 weeks. What are the odds of this being a problem? Very worrying to read and hear about :/
Are you suggesting what I think you're suggesting?
So is the latest from South Africa that those becoming seriously unwell are in the lower age bracket and not fully vaccinated?
Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
Start at A again maybe?
NSW and Victoria just reintroduced home quarantine for vaccinated arrivals again only 3 days at this stage but ......
@jojojo @Pogue Mahone
Is there data on heart risk from the booster? I'm eligible now since I'm teaching in January, and only Moderna is available, and I know it has higher risk than Pfizer.
Is there data on heart risk from the booster? I'm eligible now since I'm teaching in January, and only Moderna is available, and I know it has higher risk than Pfizer.