SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[jojojo]

Exactly. I’ve done everything that they have asked, but this year I will be doing a lateral flow test on Xmas eve and as long as I get a negative reading I will be seeing my family this Christmas regardless of the restrictions.

It's a reasonable approach and to be honest it's pretty much what I've been doing before major events or meeting up with older or vulnerable family/friends for a while. LFTs (as supplied free in the UK) are a really good resource.

I will throw in an extra suggestion for people looking at taking a cautious approach though. I won't be going out socialising in the week before Christmas and (because my work and home life lets me) I'll be dodging meeting people in their homes and other indoors settings. That may not be relevant or practical for everyone though.

 

[JB08]

Stay home in the fetal position.

In all seriousness, though, how do you spend £200 on tests? That's a massive amount! How many tests is that?

Ha. It was/is a surprise for my girlfriend's birthday so I've had to buy all of mine and hers (pre-flight, -48h before departure & Day 2 return PCR). So 6 tests in total costing about £200.

fecking infuriating considering I'm literally only there 2 nights but I knew the risks when I bought the trip, a few days before they announced the testing necessity.

 

[Rado_N]

Our office Christmas party was meant to be the 17th but has been cancelled on the basis that it’s within 10 days of Christmas and the partners would feel like shit if we got a confirmed omicron case which meant the entire office had to isolate for Christmas Day itself, which is entirely reasonable.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Ha. It was/is a surprise for my girlfriend's birthday so I've had to buy all of mine and hers (pre-flight, -48h before departure & Day 2 return PCR). So 6 tests in total costing about £200.

fecking infuriating considering I'm literally only there 2 nights but I knew the risks when I bought the trip, a few days before they announced the testing necessity.

Damn. I guess I can't complain too much, when testing is still free here. Hope the trip goes through without incident.

 

[JB08]

Damn. I guess I can't complain too much, when testing is still free here. Hope the trip goes through without incident.

Yeah, I wish I could have the same - free tests here unless you’re travelling, then you have to pay yourself. Hopefully it will be ok. I don’t even care if I have to self isolate here to be honest, it will give me peace for a week or two

 

[P-Ro]

Tottenham have just announced that 6 players and two members of staff have tested positive, quite useful for us at Brighton as we have our own injury list and play them on Sunday.

No mention obviously whether it is delta or omicron yet.

Not their biggest fan, far from it, but wishing them a speedy recovery.

 

[Withnail]

Our office Christmas party was meant to be the 17th but has been cancelled on the basis that it’s within 10 days of Christmas and the partners would feel like shit if we got a confirmed omicron case which meant the entire office had to isolate for Christmas Day itself, which is entirely reasonable.

Mine are cancelled before the new restrictions came in over here. We're working onsite for another company so I would have had two. It seems like it was mostly employees pulling out that did it.

 

[Dante]

Tottenham have just announced that 6 players and two members of staff have tested positive, quite useful for us at Brighton as we have our own injury list and play them on Sunday.

No mention obviously whether it is delta or omicron yet.

Given that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, I'd guess that we're going to see a lot of PL clubs being affect by this over the next couple of months. There'll probably a fair few match postponements in the coming weeks.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[jojojo]

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Just to comment on how the virus and vaccine science heavyweights on twitter (not joking - there are some real experts on there and some of them are willing to simplify it enough to try and explain this stuff) are responding to these first lab results.

The experiment tells us that more people who were previously infected or double vaxxed will get infected with omicron than would get infected with delta - but that 2 doses of vaccine do have some action against infection and that vaccine+infection has a stronger one. Put simply this is what they were expecting to see and better than they feared it might be. It means they know what kind of problem we're up against and they understand what will help.

It doesn't tell us how severe it will be if we do catch it - we need real data from a large number of people including the elderly, and others with additional risk factors to answer that. It does suggest that boosters will do an important job and maybe a crucial one.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Data from another, similar, study.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

I know the history of predictions has often been wrong… but should we be worried?
Why I’m concerned, is because of Boris’ lack of concern, it’s very reminiscent of his attitude in Jan-early March 2020.

https://apple.news/ArlwqTUeJSRK5Vf59SZGlfQ

For those that can’t access.. it’s an independent article, saying:


UK could reach 90,000 infections a day by Christmas, experts warn


Health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as NHS bosses warned that a significant rise in cases could add to current healthcare pressures

Covid cases could hit 90,000 a day by Christmas, experts have warned, as hospital admissions begin to increase even before the more transmissible omicron variant takes hold across Britain.


Scientific government officials say the daily number of positive cases is on course to surpass the highest peak of the pandemic within a matter of weeks, with both the omicron and delta variants circulating alongside one another to fuel a swift wave of infections


Ahead of this expected surge and a feared subsequent rise in admissions, NHS leaders have warned there is already “huge amounts of pressure” on hospitals. The risk of doctors and nurses catching omicron and being forced out of work is also adding to growing “nervousness” in the health service.


It is understood health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as the UK recorded 45,691 new Covid cases on Tuesday – a 15 per cent increase on last week’s figure.


A total of 437 omicron infections have been detected to date, but experts believe this figure to be closer to 2,000, with cases of the variant suspected to be doubling every day.

 

[The Cat]

I know the history of predictions has often been wrong… but should we be worried?
Why I’m concerned, is because of Boris’ lack of concern, it’s very reminiscent of his attitude in Jan-early March 2020.

https://apple.news/ArlwqTUeJSRK5Vf59SZGlfQ

From what I am reading on the BBC right now he's not going to have a Merry Christmas trying to worm out of the party allegations from last year.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

From what I am reading on the BBC right now he's not going to have a Merry Christmas trying to worm out of the party allegations from last year.

Not kept up to date on that story… simply because I’ve accepted it’s one (no) rule for them and we’re the ones making the sacrifices.

 

[The Cat]

Not kept up to date on that story… simply because I’ve accepted it’s one (no) rule for them and we’re the ones making the sacrifices.

Sounds like you are right anyway. This should be a major shitstorm don't think the papers are going to let go of this one.

 

[Wibble]

That’s the scary thing. It has no pressure in either direction. We’re relying on dumb luck to end up with less deadly variants.

With a long incubation period there is very little pressure to reduce severity of disease but also none to increase it. So other factors (including random antigen drift) will likely decide where it ends up.

 

[Wibble]

From my limited knowledge of viruses it's purpose is not to kill you so most likely it will evolve to be more contagious but less deadly - same as flu.

As long as the virus can be passed on then fatality isn't that important. If a virus infected and killed you very quickly there would be significant selection pressure for it to become less virulent/fatal and any new variant that was still highly infectious but less virulent would likely become the dominant variant. However, when the infectious period is long and fatality occurs after that period then there isn't much selection pressure at all to reduce virulence and other factors are likely to be more important.

 

[Wibble]

I posted this in the Antipodean news thread but worth repeating here.

Antivaxxers lose court case trying to prevent police and health working being mandate to be vaccinated. With costs awarded against them. This pleases me.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...caICvmgATfwhjbCIYj7YnusfTR17CNSl0yJ3pZAtU9t_0

The judge said the orders curtailed freedom of movement, but noted that people's bodily integrity was not violated because "the impugned orders do not authorise the involuntary vaccination of anyone".

Justice Beech-Jones stressed that the plaintiffs "made an informed choice to refuse to be vaccinated".

 

[RoadTrip]

Our office Christmas party was meant to be the 17th but has been cancelled on the basis that it’s within 10 days of Christmas and the partners would feel like shit if we got a confirmed omicron case which meant the entire office had to isolate for Christmas Day itself, which is entirely reasonable.

What do you do (work wise)?

 

[jojojo]

I know the history of predictions has often been wrong… but should we be worried?
Why I’m concerned, is because of Boris’ lack of concern, it’s very reminiscent of his attitude in Jan-early March 2020.

https://apple.news/ArlwqTUeJSRK5Vf59SZGlfQ

For those that can’t access.. it’s an independent article, saying:


UK could reach 90,000 infections a day by Christmas, experts warn


Health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as NHS bosses warned that a significant rise in cases could add to current healthcare pressures

Covid cases could hit 90,000 a day by Christmas, experts have warned, as hospital admissions begin to increase even before the more transmissible omicron variant takes hold across Britain.


Scientific government officials say the daily number of positive cases is on course to surpass the highest peak of the pandemic within a matter of weeks, with both the omicron and delta variants circulating alongside one another to fuel a swift wave of infections


Ahead of this expected surge and a feared subsequent rise in admissions, NHS leaders have warned there is already “huge amounts of pressure” on hospitals. The risk of doctors and nurses catching omicron and being forced out of work is also adding to growing “nervousness” in the health service.


It is understood health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as the UK recorded 45,691 new Covid cases on Tuesday – a 15 per cent increase on last week’s figure.


A total of 437 omicron infections have been detected to date, but experts believe this figure to be closer to 2,000, with cases of the variant suspected to be doubling every day.

The double number of infections by Christmas/New Year is likely unless we make some major behaviour changes. However it's the unknown - hospitalisations, deaths v boosters - is what everyone is watching for now.

Right now, cases are rising and hospitalisations/deaths are falling (due to boosters) but ICU numbers aren't falling and hospitalisations may be about to rise. The ICU cases are mostly unvaxxed but general hospitalisations are more split.

There's a good chance though that what will really hammer us are infections of hospital staff and carers. Even if those cases are mild for fully vaxxed healthy staff - Omicron looks very easy to pass on, and dodging/reducing isolation times is a risk that nobody will want to take. Until we get desperate.

So hmmm yeah. I think we'll see a lot of Christmas parties etc cancelled and a lot of people hunkering down at home with a plan to have Christmas with family/friends. We'll know a lot more about Omicron over the next ten days.

 

[Stack]

I get the impression big chunks of populations simply dont have any fear of this disease.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I get the impression big chunks of populations simply dont have any fear of this disease.

To be fair, large chunks of the population don’t have anything to fear. Especially if they’re vaccinated. We’re asking them to modify their behaviour for the greater good. Which becomes a bigger and bigger ask as time goes on.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I get the impression big chunks of populations simply dont have any fear of this disease.

I don't "fear" it for myself but certainly for others around me. I know and regularly see a lot of people in the more vulnerable age groups. I'd also hate to be responsible for spreading it amongst a group of friends if I met them (one of our friends already did that and felt like a right dickhead for days even though it wasn't actually his fault).

That said with the vaccines my "fear" has diminished considerably knowing those people are all jabbed, but it's still there, I guess it's finding a reasonable balance between living your life and being careful enough. Right now I'm being a bit more careful than I have been the last number of months cause I'd rather not get Covid before going home to visit the family for Xmas.

I'm sure a lot of people don't give a toss anymore, though. I mean, most of the older, vulnerable cohort I visit give far less of a shit about it than I do, almost feels like a waste of time sometimes.

 

[Rado_N]

What do you do (work wise)?

I work in tax advisory for a firm of chartered accountants.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I work in tax advisory for a firm of chartered accountants.

What. A. Prick.

 

[Rado_N]

What. A. Prick.

you already knew that

 

[Massive Spanner]

you already knew that

I have to say it every time though.

 

[jojojo]

I'm sure a lot of people don't give a toss anymore, though. I mean, most of the older, vulnerable cohort I visit give far less of a shit about it than I do, almost feels like a waste of time sometimes.

Without being too flippant, if you're 75 and imagine yourself having somewhere between 0 and 20 years left - 2 years is a long time.

Some of them can cope with the isolation (and there has been a lot of isolation for people living alone or even in a couple who stuck to the rules). Some have, to all practical purposes, become housebound through fear now. But others decided after they'd been vaccinated that they'd given it their best shot and they wanted to start going out, visiting family and friends - and take their chances.

Unfortunately right now, with Omicron looking like it's good at infecting people (including those with some immunity through vaccine or past infection) the chances are that if we're all "taking our chances" the hospitals will be filling up fast.

 

[stw2022]

Anecdotal evidence but it’s very sad that so many BAME people I know are still resisting the jabs. Aren’t they among the most at risk of severe illness if infected?

 

[Massive Spanner]

Without being too flippant, if you're 75 and imagine yourself having somewhere between 0 and 20 years left - 2 years is a long time.

Some of them can cope with the isolation (and there has been a lot of isolation for people living alone or even in a couple who stuck to the rules). Some have, to all practical purposes, become housebound through fear now. But others decided after they'd been vaccinated that they'd given it their best shot and they wanted to start going out, visiting family and friends - and take their chances.

Unfortunately right now, with Omicron looking like it's good at infecting people (including those with some immunity through vaccine or past infection) the chances are that if we're all "taking our chances" the hospitals will be filling up fast.

On yeah of course, not debating that whatsoever. My father is 73, worked like hell his whole life and it pains me that he has been stuck here for the last two years because he's been doing loads of travelling since he retired. Don't blame his generation one bit.

 

[Revan]

Things are worse than I thought with regards to Omicron. A preliminary study from Pfizer shows that there is next to no protection (at least with regards to antibodies) a few months after getting the second dose. However, things are better with the booster.

Some preliminary data from a lab in Frankfurt are even worse: 0% protection 6 months after two doses of mRNA vaccine. Around 40% after the booster, but it goes to 25% after 3 months. Not a peer reviewed study yet.

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We need an updated vaccine ASAP.

 

[jojojo]

Things are worse than I thought with regards to Omicron. A preliminary study from Pfizer shows that there is next to no protection (at least with regards to antibodies) a few months after getting the second dose. However, things are better with the booster.

Some preliminary data from a lab in Frankfurt are even worse: 0% protection 6 months after two doses of mRNA vaccine. Around 40% after the booster, but it goes to 25% after 3 months. Not a peer reviewed study yet.

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We need an updated vaccine ASAP.

There have been multiple studies released in the past 24 hours. That's the most pessimistic one and it's still not as bad as the worst case that some virus scientists had feared. It does make the boosters look more important than ever though.

Crucially - no one should delay getting vaccinated or boosted on the basis that there will be a better vaccine around next summer. We've got a winter to get through and the fewer people who get hospitalised or die the better.

Unless we get news that prior vaccination (or past infection) does little/nothing to protect us from severe disease with Omicron the current vaccines remain vital.

 

[Revan]

There have been multiple studies released in the past 24 hours. That's the most pessimistic one and it's still not as bad as the worst case that some virus scientists had feared. It does make the boosters look more important than ever though.

Crucially - no one should delay getting vaccinated or boosted on the basis that there will be a better vaccine around next summer. We've got a winter to get through and the fewer people who get hospitalised or die the better.

Unless we get news that prior vaccination (or past infection) does little/nothing to protect us from severe disease with Omicron the current vaccines remain vital.

Yes, this seems the most pessimistic one. On the other hand, it seems to be the only one which is done with active virus, not with a pseudo-virus. So, I assume, the one which models real-world best?

Of course, this is only measuring the response of antibodies. We also know that memory cells and T-cells can play a very important role, and my understanding is that they are more general than antobodies, so should be less affected. Furthermore, the study is not telling about the severity of the infection (we won't know it for a while), so while we might get effected, we might still have some defense from the vaccine, enough to not get very sick. The anecdotal evidence in South Africa is that even without vaccinations, the virus is less severe than Delta.

Completely agree about getting the booster. I booked one for 20th of December (5 months and 20 days after the second one). I do not expect the updated vaccine to start getting shipped till March, which likely means that I won't be able to get one until July or so (30yo and healthy), so better to have some protection till then, than none.

 

[jojojo]

Anecdotal evidence but it’s very sad that so many BAME people I know are still resisting the jabs. Aren’t they among the most at risk of severe illness if infected?

It's thought that around 20% of black and 10% of Asian people in England amongst the over 80s are unvaccinated. That's against a background where almost all white British people over 60 are fully vaccinated.

The differences are there in the younger age groups as well. Not quite as potentially deadly, but still taking an unnecessary extra risk for themselves and other family members. Take-up rates in the under 40s in general in England aren't great though - a combination of feeling indestructible + distrust I guess.

There's a decent summary at:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ons-may-not-have-had-a-covid-jab-who-are-they

 

[RoadTrip]

I work in tax advisory for a firm of chartered accountants.

Uh oh …

 

[11101]

Another piece of good news, from Singapore this time.

Don't want the vaccine? Fine, but you'll pay for your own medical care if you catch Covid.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-va...y-for-your-own-covid-19-treatment-11638965343

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Compliance with any restrictions will be on the floor in the UK after this Tory Xmas Party stuff - no one believes it didn’t happen and there’s nothing people like less than one rule for them and another for the rest of us.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

Another piece of good news, from Singapore this time.

Don't want the vaccine? Fine, but you'll pay for your own medical care if you catch Covid.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-va...y-for-your-own-covid-19-treatment-11638965343

this is great. And exactly what I wanted since everybody had the chance to get vaccinated. To add to that, I'd like to see a priority list for hospitals.

 

[Brwned]

There's a lot of people having their cake and eating it here. Criticising the Government for having a party last year while the population were making their heroic sacrifices, while at the same time just last year saying they were having a getting together with friends and family anyway, the rules are nonsensical plus all the other excuses. It's almost like they're taking advantage of an excuse to have another party this year...