SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[jojojo]

China is attempting to stick to its zero covid policy, and some parts of Shanghai had just heard that its lockdown had been extended again.

However, it looks like the food supply chain is collapsing under the strain. Some background on why fresh food and takeaway food is central to the issue, and why there's desperation in some groups in the city.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Which might explain some footage showing what are being reported as scenes of supermarkets being looted in Shanghai. No idea on the source or authenticity/context of the video - it's all over Twitter - but certainly there's a lot of footage of empty fridges, individual protests etc around.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Restrictions in some parts of the city are now going to be lifted - but only if there are no positive tests in this round in that area. Whether that's a cover for the authorities backing down or an irrelevance for most people, I don't know.

 

[Dumbstar]

Are China really thick or something? What are they trying to prove? Have they not seen what's literally happening in every other country in the world?

Or do they know something we don't?

 

[Cardboard elk]

Very Orwellian.. Drones flying around and warning citizens in Shanghai..

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[hmchan]

I remember @hmchan saying that the poor vaccine uptake amongst the elderly in Hong Kong was in large part down to anti-American fuelled Pfizer vaccine scepticism. I wonder what’s behind the poor uptake in China?

Sorry for the late reply. As far as I know, China hasn't put much effort in pushing the vaccination rate. They have been too confident in their so-called "dynamic zero" strategy to stop every outbreak. They also keep reassuring people that all outbreaks are controllable which, in my opinion, gives people a false sense of security. With the case number has kept staying low over the past year, people have no incentive to receive vaccination and when they need it, it's already too late.

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[jojojo]

More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.

 

[2cents]

China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry

That sounds irresponsible at best. What’s the official reason for not doing so?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.

I don’t get it. What’s the upside to massaging the stats to make the illness seem less severe? Surely that just makes their zero covid mass lockdown approach look even more stupid?

 

[jojojo]

That sounds irresponsible at best. What’s the official reason for not doing so?

I doubt there's an official explanation, and I doubt China feels any need to give one. Countries choose what to share and when to do it. Some countries do a lot of sequencing, some do very little.

Some upload sequences as they get them, immediately and without prior analysis. Others do edited highlights showing changes identified by their research teams as significant. Obviously the most helpful ones do all those things - send lots, send them fast, and point out significant bits they've spotted (like SA did with Omicron).

 

[jojojo]

I don’t get it. What’s the upside to massaging the stats to make the illness seem less severe? Surely that just makes their zero covid mass lockdown approach look even more stupid?

You'd think so, but I guess this comes down to a combination of what central government want broadcast and what local health officials dare say.

Big infection numbers to emphasise why whole cities need to be locked down hard and fast (not go rogue like HK, or lose grip on it like Shanghai). Small numbers of severe cases to "explain" how the infection could spread so far without warning.

Plus, the government could be preparing the country for a move from zero covid to "zero admitted covid deaths". Of course, that does nothing to encourage the elderly and the vulnerable to get vaccinated/boosted so it's not much of a strategy unless you control all information flow. Hmmm.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You'd think so, but I guess this comes down to a combination of what central government want broadcast and what local health officials dare say.

Big infection numbers to emphasise why whole cities need to be locked down hard and fast (not go rogue like HK, or lose grip on it like Shanghai). Small numbers of severe cases to "explain" how the infection could spread so far without warning.

Plus, the government could be preparing the country for a move from zero covid to "zero admitted covid deaths". Of course, that does nothing to encourage the elderly and the vulnerable to get vaccinated/boosted so it's not much of a strategy unless you control all information flow. Hmmm.

Ah. Ok. Gotcha.

 

[hmchan]

More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.

Only cases with abnormal CT are classified as "symptomatic". Many cases with mild fever and cough are not included.

 

[Red Diva]

So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?

 

[jojojo]

So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?

Those oximeter reading aren't great, but there is a lot of variation between individuals and devices. Do you know what you normally come in at on the gadget you're using?

 

[tenpoless]

Very Orwellian.. Drones flying around and warning citizens in Shanghai..

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Theyre not even allowed to sing. Thats crazy.

 

[fergosaurus]

So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?

The NHS advice is if it drops to 92% or less call 999. At the very least I'd be ringing 111 if I was you. It could be an inaccurate oximeter but why take the chance. Hope you feel better soon.

 

[Red Diva]

Those oximeter reading aren't great, but there is a lot of variation between individuals and devices. Do you know what you normally come in at on the gadget you're using?

Thanks for responding. I’m usually at around 96%-97%.
I am over 65years old and have a couple of comorbidities my booster was 6months ago so probably fairly ineffectual now. It did go down to 81% but has been back up at 91% for a while. I’ll see how it is tomorrow. Thank you

 

[jojojo]

Thanks for responding. I’m usually at around 96%-97%.
I am over 65years old and have a couple of comorbidities my booster was 6months ago so probably fairly ineffectual now. It did go down to 81% but has been back up at 91% for a while. I’ll see how it is tomorrow. Thank you

If it's drifting back towards normal and you're not feeling breathless or light-hearted - you're hopefully already on the mend. Things like your hands being cold can upset the reading so you can get rogue results, but when it's repeatedly low like you're seeing, you need to be on your guard. That 81% that you got sounds scary, and 91% still isn't good.

Assuming you're in the UK - I'd check in with 111 for advice initially. They may advise a trip to A&E but some of them have access to appointments with local GP led clinics as well.

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

Have any of you who have caught the recent variant suffered with any joint stiffness/pain during or after your covid infection, or heard stories about it occurring? My hip is shot to bits I can only walk for 5 minutes and my leg gives in its agony. First noticed it when I was limping during my covid isolation, 8 days quarantining in a room didn’t heal it and now several weeks after it’s at its worst.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

As I watch news updates on this, the people who are genuinely suffering at the moment are those with health issues not related to COVID and who cannot receive proper care at the moment. Besides, I just have a hard time understanding how Shanghai is currently running this low on food and medicines when that city is supposed to be the crown jewel of China's financial power. David Culver has to be the most unlucky person on Earth to be in Wuhan back then and in Shanghai now, and he says that Shanghai is definitely worse than Wuhan although this is not about COVID deaths.

Among stuff that shocked me, there were a few in that video. The man unable to admit his frail father (who later died)... that was really sad. The worker killing the pet Corgi because it belonged to a person under COVID quarantine... go feck yourself. As for the government quarantine centers, that's about as bad as you would see in very poor countries when it comes to poor sanitary standards. On a different reporting (can't find the video though), there was a heartbreaking moment where a mother was screaming to nearby apartments, asking neighbors if someone has medicine to treat her son's fever.

That decision-making from the top is as much of a failure as the way Putin has been conducting his war in Ukraine. Sorry for the slight off-topic, but the disregard for reality on the ground can only exacerbate problems.

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Coxy]

My wife had covid last week - thought I’d managed to escape it but tested positive today. Feel so shit

 

[jojojo]

I was amazed by how fast we got covid vaccines, but I admit I've been a bit disappointed by how slowly the testing technology has been going. I've been hoping to see a covid breathalyser or a covid (spit on it) litmus test for a couple of years. Looks like one has arrived:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Lj82]

I was amazed by how fast we got covid vaccines, but I admit I've been a bit disappointed by how slowly the testing technology has been going. I've been hoping to see a covid breathalyser or a covid (spit on it) litmus test for a couple of years. Looks like one has arrived:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

We started testing a breathalyser some time back, but looks like it never saw the light of the day.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/sin...-breathonix-hsa-trial-land-checkpoint-1398626

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[WI_Red]

I was amazed by how fast we got covid vaccines, but I admit I've been a bit disappointed by how slowly the testing technology has been going. I've been hoping to see a covid breathalyser or a covid (spit on it) litmus test for a couple of years. Looks like one has arrived:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I get where you are coming from but we have actually had a generational shift in molecular testing technology/process in the last 3 years. The wide adoption of isothermal PCR, the development of multiple POC devices, the push to decentralize testing, etc. are huge shifts.

I think the next 2 years are going to be marked by even more change. How much change is dependent on public (and healthcare institutions I guess) interest in POC devices.

 

[Adamsk7]

I’d always be happy to do tests (if quick) ahead of seeing vulnerable people/going to large gatherings. I’m going to see my partners elderly grandmother for Easter today and even though Covid is “over” in the UK, I’ll still do one. it just makes sense. I feel like going back to our old normal and learning nothing from this experience would be a travesty.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

We spent two years playing the blame game & pushing the idea that passing on an upper respiratory virus wasn’t simply part of the natural World, but a personal fault that could kill others.
Hardly surprising that has lead to a shit load of lifelong guilt for many.

 

[Andy_Cole]

We spent two years playing the blame game & pushing the idea that passing on an upper respiratory virus wasn’t simply part of the natural World, but a personal fault that could kill others.
Hardly surprising that has lead to a shit load of lifelong guilt for many.

Exactly this. The civil war this created with mask wearers vs non mask wearers etc. was ridiculous. No it wasn’t me not wearing a mask in Tesco in Manchester who killed Jane in London.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

I wonder if there is a new variant in Shanghai that explains what's happening over there. I mean, they didn't tell us the truth about Wuhan for more than a month, did they?

 

[Lj82]

I wonder if there is a new variant in Shanghai that explains what's happening over there. I mean, they didn't tell us the truth about Wuhan for more than a month, did they?

What is happening there is consistent with omicron though? Pretty sure there were some studies that show it is tracking the infection rate in HK.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

What is happening there is consistent with omicron though? Pretty sure there were some studies that show it is tracking the infection rate in HK.

Unless they aren't telling truth about death numbers, which is what happened in Wuhan?

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

I wonder if there is a new variant in Shanghai that explains what's happening over there. I mean, they didn't tell us the truth about Wuhan for more than a month, did they?

As far as the media get solid tips from top national health organizations, it's a subtype of the Omicron variant. I can't tell if the lack of a suitable vaccine is the reason why they go into hard lockdown, but one thing I see are people with conditions not related to COVID suffering a hell lot more this time than it was in Wuhan. As far as other Asian countries nearby go, they seem to not be too bothered despite having high numbers for now because vaccines do their job.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

As far as the media get solid tips from top national health organizations, it's a subtype of the Omicron variant. I can't tell if the lack of a suitable vaccine is the reason why they go into hard lockdown, but one thing I see are people with conditions not related to COVID suffering a hell lot more this time than it was in Wuhan. As far as other Asian countries nearby go, they seem to not be too bothered despite having high numbers for now because vaccines do their job.

Interesting...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What is happening there is consistent with omicron though? Pretty sure there were some studies that show it is tracking the infection rate in HK.

Yeah, exactly. It’s HK on a larger scale. Omicron posing more of a threat than it does anywhere else because of poor vaccines, poor vaccine uptake and minimal immunity from prior exposure.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Yeah, exactly. It’s HK on a larger scale. Omicron posing more of a threat than it does anywhere else because of poor vaccines, poor vaccine uptake and minimal immunity from prior exposure.

Yep. The bad thing about vaccines made from the old recipe with dead viruses is that they only work for the original strain, but won't do much to curb other variants. Sputnik and Sinopharm/Sinovac vaccines are not particularly effective against anything other than the original COVID-19.

The poor vaccine uptake is another problem, but that can be solved with better convincing towards the public. However, little exposure to the virus within the community is also in the equation due the zero-COVID policy, which only delayed the inevitable. Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have picked up better immunity now because they saw in the news about how good mRNA vaccines are and because they faced COVID waves as well.

 

[0le]

I finally had my booster a few weeks ago and there were still a lot of people at the GP surgery (in the UK) getting vaccines. Was all done in about 5 minutes as well, very quick and efficient.

 

[WI_Red]

As a follow up from my previous post, and also not having to fat finger my way through an iPhone, I wanted to add to my comments on the state of current testing. I am almost certainly way deep in the weeds but I need to say that the innovation and brilliance I have seen the last 3 years in the field of molecular diagnostics is breathtaking. I have been working with small startups and huge reference labs for over a decade and where we are now, and where we are going, is awe inspiring. I can see a day in the next few years where every single person can have on their bathroom counter a small device that can run on demand molecular testing in minutes. The technology is already here, now. I have customers developing tests that run 15 minutes from swab to answer. At home. Your home. I can't tell you enough how HUGE that change is from just 3 years ago. And it's not just COVID either. Flu A and B are coming. STD's, cancer, etc. Basically anything that can be tested from a mucus/epidermal source (with blood from pricks sure to come) will be available. It's an exciting time for science and medicine.

 

[jojojo]

As a follow up from my previous post, and also not having to fat finger my way through an iPhone, I wanted to add to my comments on the state of current testing. I am almost certainly way deep in the weeds but I need to say that the innovation and brilliance I have seen the last 3 years in the field of molecular diagnostics is breathtaking. I have been working with small startups and huge reference labs for over a decade and where we are now, and where we are going, is awe inspiring. I can see a day in the next few years where every single person can have on their bathroom counter a small device that can run on demand molecular testing in minutes. The technology is already here, now. I have customers developing tests that run 15 minutes from swab to answer. At home. Your home. I can't tell you enough how HUGE that change is from just 3 years ago. And it's not just COVID either. Flu A and B are coming. STD's, cancer, etc. Basically anything that can be tested from a mucus/epidermal source (with blood from pricks sure to come) will be available. It's an exciting time for science and medicine.

Brilliant.

Has the pandemic spending and moves in research funding had an impact on it? Or was this all in progress anyway?

I know some of the PCR labs in the UK are being reconfigured as general purpose "respiratory virus" facilities to cover covid, flu, RSV tests. Obviously a lot better if they can be done on a quick test basis though as it opens up options for A&E staff, GPs, carehomes etc - if the basic price and price per test are ok.

How close do you think we are to seeing the first of these things roll out into the world?

 

[WI_Red]

Brilliant.

Has the pandemic spending and moves in research funding had an impact on it? Or was this all in progress anyway?

I know some of the PCR labs in the UK are being reconfigured as general purpose "respiratory virus" facilities to cover covid, flu, RSV tests. Obviously a lot better if they can be done on a quick test basis though as it opens up options for A&E staff, GPs, carehomes etc - if the basic price and price per test are ok.

How close do you think we are to seeing the first of these things roll out into the world?

I can really speak with confidence only from a US perspective but I am sure that the trend is worldwide. Here we saw a massive influx in spending for diagnostics thanks to programs like RADx. While the funds flowing out may be happening at a slower pace than optimal it has still motivated academics and small start ups to shoot for the stars with their ideas. From a science persepective almost all of the new diagnostics are utilizing some form of isothermal PCR which uses a unique polymerase (NEB's Bst was the "first" one and their LAMP system is everywhere) to dramatically speed up PCR thanks to the ability to perform it at room temp. Anyone who has done traditional PCR knows a big limiting factor is the speed at which an instrument can ramp the temperature up and down for each step.

To get back to your question I would say that lots of these startups were in some form of infancy but there was no real market for them. The general public was fine with waiting days for test results for pretty much everything. This led to most hospital and clinics ditching the formation of their own molecular testing labs and instead contracting with huge testing labs (LabCorp, ARUP, etc.) to do the testing. With COVID there was finally a market pressure saying "2 days is not fast enough!" and so more and more hospitals and public health departments started doing testing on site or in house. Even so the market is demanding for faster testing and this is where POC devices make an entrance.

There are already products on the market in this area (Lucira's COVID test is one example), but I think this is just the first wave. If the market proves to be as desperate for POC testing as I think I believe the next wave of products will be transformational. Why? Because Lucira and its competitors are temporary solutions. There is no reusable component to the test as once it is complete you toss the whole thing. The price point reflects this and is problematic for long term uptake. The next wave of product will be reusable where you purchase the tests separate. Think of it like a Keurig system. You buy the testing base and then buy the tests separate. My prediction is that within 3 - 5 years we will have access to in home molecular testing for $10-12 a test. I would not be surprised if it get's even lower or is covered by insurance (in the US) as well.