SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Lj82

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Unless they aren't telling truth about death numbers, which is what happened in Wuhan?
Oh for sure. There are anecdotes here and there popping up on Chinese social media about people dying from covid, but the official numbers didn't move at all.
Put it this way, if there is no death from such high infection rates, why bother with the harsh lock down when it has such a devastating effect on their economy?
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Niall Ferguson published this piece yesterday in Bloomberg. While taking into the historical parallel with a past cholera epidemic, he listed a number of elements that could spell trouble down the road should zero-COVID policy remain a thing. It's not only the toll from COVID on public health, but the large implications on trade and GDP. Some of the excerpts about the way COVID has been handled in China really threw off my chair.

China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Has Become Xi’s Nemesis

The problem is that the Chinese data lack credibility. It’s implausible, to put it mildly, that Shanghai has to date experienced 200,000 recorded cases but zero deaths. (Hong Kong reported 8,886 deaths out of 308,705 cases.) An anonymous official reportedly admitted that the criteria for confirming cases and deaths were “susceptible to political meddling.” This echoes last week’s leaked recordings from Dr. Zhu Weiping, an epidemiologist at the Shanghai Center for Disease Control, who spoke of deliberate official hiding of and tampering with data.
They have listed 3 deaths or so only in the last 24 hours. But this is the kind of Ron DeSantis-like stuff pushed to an exponential level.

The Pfizer vaccine, licensed to Fosun since December 2020, is still nowhere to be seen in China. The Walvax/Abogen partnership has finished enrollment of 22,000 subjects in a global phase 3 trial of its own mRNA vaccine, but there have been numerous delays, and the reported side effect of lymphopenia (a low lymphocyte white blood cell count) is concerning.
That has to be the biggest indictment of gross negligence if that is true. I know that clinical trials matter and so on, but there sould be no excuse to not get this ready when 1) China already has the recipe for the best vaccine there is and 2) having a top contingency tool is always better than having none. The next part is the translation of a comment on Chinese state media as reported by Ferguson, and it speaks volumes about a delusional sense of exceptionalism that the CCP is trying to project.

Despite the mounting difficulties to contain the evolving, more transmissible and concealed virus, the country shall defeat it with action and determination. China will never give up on protecting the lives of its citizens. Trying to “live with the virus” … which relies solely on vaccination instead of other prevention measures, is not a choice for China ... China will not and cannot adopt such a defeatist and Darwinian method …The dynamic zero-Covid policy is a reflection of the Chinese government's people-centered development philosophy.
Bruh, you have the recipe to have the best weapon there is against the virus. You just blew it.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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Oh for sure. There are anecdotes here and there popping up on Chinese social media about people dying from covid, but the official numbers didn't move at all.
Put it this way, if there is no death from such high infection rates, why bother with the harsh lock down when it has such a devastating effect on their economy?
Exactly. I was discussing this with @jojojo yesterday because I couldn’t work out why they would cynically cook the books to make covid look even less lethal, when that completely undermines their extreme countermeasures. She pointed out that this isn’t the government tweaking figures it’s the discrepancy between local and national figures. Local government might have to meet metrics about pandemic management so it benefits them to pretend they’re losing less lives than they really are. Even though that’s not what the government needs to hear.
 

jojojo

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There's a fascinating write-up on Twitter trying to explain why Shanghai (and Hong Kong before it) may not have shaken most Chinese people's belief in the standard zero covid response.


Personally I find it horrific - from the children separated from parents, to the people struggling to get food, to the culling of family pets and all done with no realistic end point. Just awful. But I guess for the large number of Chinese people with no desire to travel abroad etc, Shanghai seems like more a warning of what happens if you don't clamp down hard/fast than of the long-term futility of the zero covid approach
 

Balljy

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These data look very very bad (need to read whole thread). Is covid still gumming up the UK health service?

@jojojo
There was an article yesterday which seems crazy. An NHS boss had a stroke, but knew that a category 2 call (which a stroke falls under) would take 2 hours currently, so her husband drove her in potentially saving her life. For an NHS boss to use her knowledge to not actually use the NHS is very worrying.

NHS boss feared waiting for ambulance after stroke - BBC News
 

Massive Spanner

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The HSE is far smarter than them. There’s an easy way to avoid scary data like that. Don’t collect it. Problem solved!
On a serious note, does anyone know the actual chances of getting omicron again?

I'm getting married next Friday and have a tingle in my throat today, and when I got it three months ago, it started with a sore throat :nervous:
 

jojojo

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These data look very very bad (need to read whole thread). Is covid still gumming up the UK health service?

@jojojo
Multiple layers of problem I think. Ambulance service has lost staff (+ high absences due to Omicron). A&E are picking up the slack because the GP system has been overwhelmed by the COVID backlog. And basically, things are pretty much business as usual elsewhere, so it's all the usual demands (traffic accidents etc) + COVID related calls, A&E visits.

I was with a family member last week who has had recent surgery and who had fallen. Long story short - I was told by the visiting district nurse that, "she needs A&E - blood gushes out when I disturb the dressing," and that an ambulance could take an hour to arrive but I could drive her there myself if I wanted. Call me a wimp - but I was terrified that I would disturb the dressing getting her from wheelchair to car so stuck with the ambulance. As it turned out the wait for the ambulance was only ten minutes - but I'd rather not have had to make that decision.
 

jojojo

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I've read some of the WHO stats. Overall the figures seem plausible but when you look at individual countries it's harder to call. The estimates are based on "excess deaths" but to get those you have to choose an "expected deaths" baseline.

For some countries (including the UK) the baselines look pretty plausible based on the 5 years prior to the pandemic. For others, like Germany, they look more suspect. There's no doubt that there's been massive underreporting in some countries - but I'm not that convinced that WHO's analysis is better than the one produced by the Economist or the FT for example.

The headline graph for example:


But it all relies on that estimate of "expected deaths" as discussed here:

Incidentally the BBC graphic also ignores the error bars on the WHO data. It's not a League table, just a cautionary tale about reported v actual COVID deaths.
 

Withnail

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I had it at the end of March and was sick enough in bed for three days with a fever and lost sense of smell, along with brain fog. The first few weeks back in work were tough and everything took me longer to do and figure out. I've had to take notes and screenshots in order to follow my train of thought through solving a problem when I never would have before for something similar. It's improving all the time but I'm still not as sharp as I was mentally and am now wondering if I ever will be.
 

fergosaurus

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I had it at the end of March and was sick enough in bed for three days with a fever and lost sense of smell, along with brain fog. The first few weeks back in work were tough and everything took me longer to do and figure out. I've had to take notes and screenshots in order to follow my train of thought through solving a problem when I never would have before for something similar. It's improving all the time but I'm still not as sharp as I was mentally and am now wondering if I ever will be.
That sounds rough mate. Thankfully you're improving as time goes on and hopefully you'll continue that way and make a full recovery.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Man, everything told in this video about the inhumane conditions of the (still undergoing) lockdowns in Shanghai is just heartbreaking. Thanks for the report being as true and raw as possible, Vice News.


Absolutely nonsensical for this to be going on for 38 days now.
 

bosnian_red

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Started a new job last week, now work in the USA and commute every day (it's hybrid WFH but to start i wanted to go in every day). Finally got COVID after a week after never getting it before and working in person for the past 2 years :lol:

Couldn't make it up. It's likely not actually from work, think I got it from my s.o. But still. Funny. Not fun though.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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When will the pandemic officially be declared over?
When enough countries will have done a proper job vaccinating enough people. A number of countries are still doing a really poor job at 1) getting people vaccinated and 2) choosing the best vaccines (mRNA are still the best).
 

Dave_MUFC

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It really seems to get you at the worst possible time. My other half has just turned up positive today (almost definitely from a karaoke room she went with some work friends), and was meant to be flying to Spain tomorrow and attending a festival there this weekend.

Meanwhile, it's my birthday on Saturday, and I was planning to spend the weekend with a couple of mates in Manchester and had bought tickets for the United Legends game...

Back at the beginning of the year, my grandma in the US was quite poorly, and my dad was planning to visit, but got it literally 2 days before flying, so had to cancel, and she passed away the week after, which hit him really hard.

I'm negative today, but feel it's inevitable that I'll end up positive in the next few days.
 

Volumiza

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Tested positive today, can only assume it’s from the pub while watching the match on Saturday, it was very busy and rowdy. Feel trashed. Rough as feck. Bad timing too, just had some compassionate leave from work and have a big backlog I needed to get through, now I’m back off work, shivering in bed.