From what it seems? Letting it run its course.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
As bad as Dagbladet is, no Norwegian newspaper is like the Daily Mail. There are standards, self-imposed and otherwise. And in this case their source is an expert, though that doesn't mean the expert is correct.
This is lunaticacal.
I’ve been following this since January and have spent a lot of time reading about it or listening to news podcasts/interviews about it.
I must say, it was always concerning, but with everything going exactly as the graphs had predicted, and with knowing that there’s not been any miraculous deus-ex-machina style stop for the virus spread, yesterday and today I’ve really started to be very worried.
I must say, it was always concerning, but with everything going exactly as the graphs had predicted, and with knowing that there’s not been any miraculous deus-ex-machina style stop for the virus spread, yesterday and today I’ve really started to be very worried.
Looks like the Herd Immunity plan is out of the window.
I trusted Prof. Vallance when I heard him speak on behalf of the government, but honestly, for my parent's sake, I'd much rather they were locked down and out of harm's way. Economy be damned.
How did you get "so you don't know" from what I told you? Were you expecting a mathematical formula? Are you really trying to suggest that the burden of proof is on me for not taking the time to exhaustively demonstrate that "poverty will kill millions more before their healthy life expectancy"? You'd think we have progressed to the point where people can see the benefits that civilisation will bring. Forgive me for choosing not to spend the rest of my Saturday night writing a thesis on why water is wet.
What do you think health outcomes are like for homeless people vs those with a fixed address? Or for those living in a household for with secure full-time employment vs one where the main earner is doing cash-in-hand or part-time work? Or households that can afford to heat their home versus those who cannot?
If you cannot understand the topic from the King's Fund (simple) or the Marmot Review (advanced) then there's nothing more I can do. feck the economy, and you're fecking the health of your entire population long term and reducing people's healthy life expectancy by far more than the immediate effects of COVID-19. Even Italy is still trying to keep many businesses and workplaces open, despite the rest of their lockdown and are pumping billions in to try and save their economy.
I don't know if we're necessarily abandoning the herd immunity theory or they just realised their current plans were going to cause things to happen more quickly than they thought. Given none of these measures are immediate I wouldn't be surprised if the plan remains to allow mass infection of the under 50's but at a decreased rate from what would happen without any extreme measures.
EDIT - It's good news though, in my view. I'm with you there.
That is what it seems yeah, but we're being told it's a more nuanced approach.
It's complete horse-shit
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5 to 20 days. With exponential functions a x range that big lead to millions cases difference.
I think people are becoming overly fixated on the herd immunity bit. As a society we will gain some form of indirect protection against the coronavirus as individuals gain immunity, and it is an important part of the modelling and how the eventual spread of the coronavirus will slow, but make no mistake we will be wanting mass vaccinations as soon as we can.
I watched Vallance and Whitty in full live, and didn't really see that as the central part of what they were presenting their strategy as. It seems to have taken on a life of its own in the media since. More importantly, to me at least, was the frankness in pointing out that the UK is in a much longer struggle (or as they put, we are right at the beginning at the flat part of the curve, despite approx. 5k-10k cases) and that they are delaying lockdown measures for as long as possible for when they are most effective, as things are to get much worse.
Yes, the burden of proof is on you, you're the one:
1) Claiming poverty will kill millions more (than the virus?) before their healthy life expectancy. Obviously here I have to interpret "poverty" as extra poverty caused by more stringent public health measures. How can you claim that if you can't even guess a number that reflects this economic cost?
2) Implying that, even if the above claim could be proven true, there is actually a "choice" to be made between:
- More short-term deaths, delayed Economic downturn, which will lead to more saved lives in the future
- More lives saved in the short-term, but an anticipated (by weeks?) Economic downturn, which will lead to more long-term deaths
You seem to support the idea that the first choice might be better from an utilittarian point of view - This is a huge claim. And the burden of proof is on you.
What exactly is your role on WHO, if you don't mind sharing? I understand you work in Public Health, but are you a doctor, statistician, economist?
PS: I am a Doctor and I don't need links to websites talking about health determinants. That's what you learn on the first five minutes of Public Health on an average 3rd year medical curriculum
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Should be able to differentiate them if people just tell the truth if they have been tested or not I'm really interested in people's experiences even people who have just had the symptoms and the advice they got from phoning 111
Somebody got blood on their hands
Thanks for the reply. Luckily I live alone so I'm well isolated but still have to get out and about to get shopping in and the like. Will need to top up on supplies next week.
It's been tough enough adjusting to type 1 diabetes without this threat also in the background. Its hard to see where/when this Covid-19 threat will end. Scary times and as I said before I'm worried about my elderly parents more than anything.
Whats frustrating on a personal note is.
I've felt a bit shit for days, but in all honesty, I don't think I've had it, so I still need to take as many precautions as I can to limit the chance of me getting it.
But what if I have actually got it, and about to pass it, I've got months ahead of not knowing, just like many others will have.
I know it's a small problem in the grand scale,
I've felt a bit shit for days, but in all honesty, I don't think I've had it, so I still need to take as many precautions as I can to limit the chance of me getting it.
But what if I have actually got it, and about to pass it, I've got months ahead of not knowing, just like many others will have.
I know it's a small problem in the grand scale,
You're welcome.
If you're wondering specifically how it'll work for covid19 or any potential resultant vaccine from the original post you quoted regarding the Dutch research team (if they - or anyone - even develop a vaccine, keep in mind) then that's unknown, but it's pretty likely it'll be injected. Oral vaccines are usually for intestinal disease (cholera, etc)
If you're asking in general how vaccines are delivered into the body, then there are a lot of ways, all with pros and cons and sometimes restrictions. But still, mainly injected.
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Yeah, the worst thought in the world is losing someone to this.
As far as I can tell most of his blog is incoherent and his article is not much better, a long argument from personal incredulity.
This is so worrying
Glad to hear this. I was deeply horrified by the initial message & strategy proposed. The elderly need to be protected at all costs.
Are the Democrats going to appeal to the Supreme Court?
Bojo didn't think that one through did he. Which isn't suprising of course.
This maybe a stupid question, but why not just limit the amount of items to 1 or 2 per customer? Enforce the rule.
Asking people to see sense is ridiculous. Have they seen the knuckle draggers who are panic buying?
They're going to have to limit certain items per customer. Times like these make people selfish and tribalistic.
I suspect this thread reads a whole lot like each year's RAWK EPL winners threads. The tone has really changed these last few days after the initial "its just a flu" posts. Next week will be Stevie G slipping as we start seeing loved ones being infected. Personally, I was worried at first, and now I'm terrified of what is about to happen.
They already have I believe. Online shopping on Tesco, you can only buy 2 of items when I checked a few hours ago.
I don't work for the WHO. I work for the NHS in Population Health commissioning. I'm going to bed now, but I'll say this:
Ultimately, our perspectives are going to differ based on whether you think the UK has any realistic prospect of greatly limiting the number of COVID-19 cases over the next year. In my opinion, we've got no chance, as this is completely national, likely north of 20,000 true cases at this stage. I don't think we have any hope of preventing it running into the many millions in the next weeks and months. Therefore the only thing you can possibly prioritise is trying to distribute the spread in such a way that the health services can help as many of those most vulnerable as possible when they need. Thousands of deaths will be inevitable. There is life beyond COVID-19 however. Taking measures that harm the economy, whilst only delaying the unpreventable in the spread of the coronavirus, would lead to greater costs and health detriments. The legacy of COVID-19 will have far greater negative effects long term for many, than the couple of weeks of mild-to-no illness that they experienced at the time.
Isn't that the point of all our discussion? What we all want?
Amazing how you see this and yet think the solution isn't to act immediately until we can at lesat guarantee that the health services will be able to cope with the initial wave. Other countries experiences suggest it can't, unless measures are taken before.
That’s most people in a nutshell mate.
That sucks. Sitting on an island in the middle of nowhere watching whales sounded like a dream escape from reality.
Not in store where it matters though..
So, you haven't read it yet you seem to want to gloat about being right?
Seems like you should just stick to the bitter football threads then.
Aye, I was double checking but just confirmed.
Diagnosed a 29 year old woman who passed through the previously diagnosed transmission area. Hard not to think it will explode now. Gotta get ready.
No, you can generalize. You are pretty spot on. That cart is a nutritional travesty.Obviously not gonna generalize but feck me americans can be fecking crazyPeople stocking up chips, ice creams, cookies, sugar beverages
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