SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

cyberman

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Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
 

sebsheep

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Have you seen the prices on eBay?
Yeah, but I'm not aware of any businesses doing that. I get the angle of numpties buying loads to make money over charging people from this sort of thing.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand
Unbelievably selfish twats. Shame on all of them.

In other news, someone in their early 20s has just been admitted to an ITU in a hospital in Ireland with suspected Covid 19 (test results pending) No underlying health condition. I suspect karma will come for a lot of people on the piss tonight, sooner than they think.
 

Revan

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The best gauge we're gonna get in the short term for the death rate in a fully functional advanced healthcare system is from the Diamond Princess.
Again, they have doctors and nurses, and ICU beds and ventilators. If 5 million people get infected at the same month (modelled by a uniform distribution) with 5% of them requiring intensive care, you will have 250k people in intensive care. You have 5000 ICU beds (3000 of them are occupied). This means, from those 250k people who require intensive care, 248k don’t get it. Not hard to imagine what happens with them.

It actually doesn’t matter what distribution it is. A Gaussian with a higher peak might put 500k or more needing intensive care at the same time, but again it doesn’t matter.
 

Paxi

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Per 100k there are 6.6 icu beds in UK, though not sure how they're spread? Couple that with 80-90% already been in use I would bet?

Around double that in Italy and 29.2 in Germany

the NHS is fecking struggling as it is.

I'm personally thinking something akin to Lombardy will happen in the UK, Like Cheltenham suddenly gets a surge of cases or Liverpool or Cornwall and completely overwhelms the local system.

I think with this strategy, doubld the resources still royally fecked. The thing people seem to forget is the NHS is severely understaffed and resourced as it is and every other problem still needs to be dealt with. That isn't put on hold:/ A system with cracks breaking through the seams has to now deal with a pandemic, with a government taking a massive fecking gamble when countries that are coping with this have gone completely different ways.
There is no evidence to suggest this builds immunity
There is no way the UK is prepared for this.
Yeah I've read somewhere that ICU is up to 80% capacity in the UK as it is. Feck knows how will deal with people 5,000-10,000 suspected cases who are infected who will undoubtedly infect others. 15% of that number will require hospitalisation in the coming days. I'm really struggling to wrap my head around how the government are planning on dealing with those numbers when your local A&E is a shitshow every weekend.
 

dumbo

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Putting aside whether the UK response is best for it's own people for a second, how is it going to affect other countries with more strict policies? If we're trying to develop a herd immunity then we need people to get the virus, doesn't this completely undermine other countries who are trying to prevent transmission, Unless we are quarantined island?
 

Classical Mechanic

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Problem here is he's filling in the blanks to what he thinks might be going on, would be good to get clear info from the Tories and stop the rampant speculation. I expect UK will follow suit with Spain and France when we get to those numbers thereabouts. The herd immunity will take out so many older people and those with comprised health of all ages and would need very specific instructions and secondary help that isn't there for those people to stay away from the healthy majority while they get infected. Too many won't be responsible enough or dedicated enough. NHS would be quickly overwhelmed. This would also need a quick turnaround of the healthy getting infected and recovering.

Should other countries get passed this with 3000 dead like China and UK has substantially more I think public hanging and stoning would be brought back for the whole party.
I'm not saying the UK government approach is right. I think it's a massive gamble like most people do. I just object to the smug pontificating because the truth is that no one knows how this going to play out. China may have stopped this outbreak with the kinds of draconian methods only available to a totalitarian regime but the fact remains that this highly contagious disease will highly still exist in the environment when they lift those measures and may blow up bigger. This isn't a short term issue by all accounts so looking at it in that way isn't helpful. It's obvious that extreme isolation measures will work because the virus can't jump from host to host, you didn't need these lock downs to tell you that. But then what?
 

Ekkie Thump

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Again, they have doctors and nurses, and ICU beds and ventilators. If 5 million people get infected at the same month (modelled by a uniform distribution) with 5% of them requiring intensive care, you will have 250k people in intensive care. You have 5000 ICU beds (3000 of them are occupied). This means, from those 250k people who require intensive care, 248k don’t get it. Not hard to imagine what happens with them.

It actually doesn’t matter what distribution it is. A Gaussian with a higher peak might put 500k or more needing intensive care at the same time, but again it doesn’t matter.
Preach to someone else, you're echoing the exact point I made earlier. My point here is that there is in fact an available cohort that could, within 2-3 weeks, serve as a reasonable proxy for determining the base deathrate in an unstressed health system. I am claiming no more or less than that. Obviously the deathrate would increase from there once we inevitably run out of beds.
 

sullydnl

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Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
I wonder what would happen if we closed the pubs (which I'm sure is only a matter of time)? I can't help but feel that people stupid enough to go on a piss up now would also be stupid enough to start having house parties once the pubs aren't an option.

Maybe just temporarily ban the sale of alcohol entirely. I'm sure that would slow shit down.
 

kouroux

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I wonder what would happen if we closed the pubs (which I'm sure is only a matter of time)? I can't help but feel that people stupid enough to go on a piss up now would also be stupid enough to start having house parties once the pubs aren't an option.

Maybe just temporarily ban the sale of alcohol entirely. I'm sure that would slow shit down.
They would probably riot
 

Arruda

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Putting aside whether the UK response is best for it's own people for a second, how is it going to affect other countries with more strict policies? If we're trying to develop a herd immunity then we need people to get the virus, doesn't this completely undermine other countries who are trying to prevent transmission, Unless we are quarantined island?
The rest of the world will quarantine you period.
 

Paxi

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Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
My wee brother is out tonight, the fecking muppet. Fully prepared to catch it off him.
My friends and I were planning a mad one for about a month and we've had to cancel. Instead we're just going to have a social gathering in the house providing we all feel okay next week.
 

TMDaines

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And we should take the poverty option if it saves tens of millions of lives worldwide.
Poverty will kill millions more before their healthy life expectancy. Looking at this through the narrow lens of just minimising COVID-19 deaths today and tomorrow will create ever bigger problems in the future.

I don’t know what to say. This is going to likely be the most significant negative event since WWII and only really the advent of the Internet will have changed the world more. No matter what we do, millions and millions will die over the next year from COVID-19. I don’t see how any Western European country can now possibly avoid that, we’re way too far on and we’re all paying the price for China’s initial cover up.

I literally couldn’t care less about being right on much of this. In fact, I hope I am wrong and a miracle happens, and all the senior leaders around the world suddenly find the golden approach and adhere to it.

With the ridiculous amount I have read over the last three months, I can though see why the UK’s current approach has been chosen, despite its implications. There’s not any amount of money that can avoid a catastrophe from this, with any amount of lockdown.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Putting aside whether the UK response is best for it's own people for a second, how is it going to affect other countries with more strict policies? If we're trying to develop a herd immunity then we need people to get the virus, doesn't this completely undermine other countries who are trying to prevent transmission, Unless we are quarantined island?
If the rest of the world are hiding in their bedrooms for 18 months then what difference would it make?
 

sullydnl

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Putting aside whether the UK response is best for it's own people for a second, how is it going to affect other countries with more strict policies? If we're trying to develop a herd immunity then we need people to get the virus, doesn't this completely undermine other countries who are trying to prevent transmission, Unless we are quarantined island?
Particularly relevant in the case of Ireland, where you have an open land border between the two approaches which thousand of people cross every day for work.
 

Paxi

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Amazing scenes in Naples though

 

Pogue Mahone

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Putting aside whether the UK response is best for it's own people for a second, how is it going to affect other countries with more strict policies? If we're trying to develop a herd immunity then we need people to get the virus, doesn't this completely undermine other countries who are trying to prevent transmission, Unless we are quarantined island?
Other people like the nation who shares an island with Northern Ireland?
 

Paxi

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402


Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.

The scientists also questioned the government's view that people will become fed up with restrictions if they were imposed too soon.
 

Hugh Jass

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Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
Totally. "Ah it will be grand," attitude amongst so many.

Even trying to tell my parents that the shit will hit the fan in the next few weeks and they dont care.
 

Hugh Jass

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We just don't care. Drink, drink, drink. We need drink and "da craic".
We are fecked. It was good knowing you. It will be pandemonium now in two weeks time in ireland.

Country should have been locked down completely bar the shops and pharmacies.

Too late now. We have crossed the event horizon.
 

redshaw

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I'm not saying the UK government approach is right. I think it's a massive gamble like most people do. I just object to the smug pontificating because the truth is that no one knows how this going to play out. China may have stopped this outbreak with the kinds of draconian methods only available to a totalitarian regime but the fact remains that this highly contagious disease will highly still exist in the environment when they lift those measures and may blow up bigger. This isn't a short term issue by all accounts so looking at it in that way isn't helpful. It's obvious that extreme isolation measures will work because the virus can't jump from host to host, you didn't need these lock downs to tell you that. But then what?
Well lets take China for example, there's no other hotspots there while it did reach every area despite a lockdown. Obviously a lockdown will contain it a lot but what could happen when Wuhan/Hubei is back to normal and out of lockdown is this area is now immune and those unfortunate have died with the virus but it's a low number of 2-3000 in one area, what makes it start again or this be the engine room to restart it? How has this virus that reached every area in China not created another epicentre while seemingly not many people carrying this have created an epicente just as bad in Italy?

I just wonder if a high strain from Wuhan was brought to Europe, could be 1or a handful of people but generally as we've seen around China it can diminish and not take hold in other areas. If all it takes to start Italy off is a traveler from China to Europe, how did another region in China not go into overdrive?

Italy, like China, may have seen the worst it can do.
 

Solius

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Just when I start to not worry as much I read this thread and you’re all going mental.
 

Penna

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Bit of a selfish question, as I am self employed and need to keep earning, but whats the deals in France and Italy with self employed people? Are they made to stay indoors during this lockdown as well?
No, people are allowed to go to work. If they're stopped by the police, they have to submit a form which is widely available which just says who you are, where you're from, where you're going and what is the reason for making the journey. Going to/from work is one of the permitted reasons for travelling.