Dr John Campbell's daily blog is really the best source of information on developments of the virus, feels like something people will look back on and wonder why more actions weren't taken sooner. It's almost eery watching him increasingly getting more concerned as the days go on and the WHO not heeding his and other experts' advice. The economic cost is going to be huge regardless so why not close off travel completely for a couple of weeks?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Yea - sure. I don't remember much worth summarizing, but let me do a quick skim and recap it for you. It's a summary of the official data from the Chinese CDC.
- The report covers 72K people, of whom 42K are confirmed positives. The rest of the data around disease stats pertains to the 42K.
- You can test positive and have no symptoms. In this sample, 1% of the 72K tested positive with zero symptoms.
- The age ranges are broad(they binned 30-79 years old as one group which is a little strange), but 3% is 80+ and just 1% is <10 years old. Not a lot of kids affected. This isn't useful information without knowing what the underlying population distribution of ages is, so you can't really conclude anything of the basis of this, but I think it's fair to say it is way less likely to affect kids because I am guessing way more than 1% are <10 year old, so it under-indexes on this segment.
- Most who tested positive were mild(80%), 15% as severe(not sure what this means, bunch of medical jargon) and 5% is critical(septic shock, organ failure).
- Case fatality rate(deaths, basically) is overall 2.3%. There are several interesting splits to the data:
- No kids died
- Only those in critical condition pass away(according to the report). I think this is not useful information because being in critical condition is a prerequisite to die. You cannot go from a 'mild' condition to death - it happens in phases, so this is a bit tautological, really.
- Case fatality rate is correlated with age group. The older you are, the more likely you are to die. They don't have splits by age, but 15% for those 80+ and 8% for those between 70-79 is a significant difference. I think it'd be safe to say that the probability is less alarmist if you're below the age of, say, 50. Bit of a simplification of course, because there'd be multivariate causes to death.
- Probability of death is much higher based on pre-existing conditions. Groups with hypertension, diabetes, cardiac disease all showed much higher fatality rate. Nothing sticks out more than the other.. they all seem to have 5-10% CFR.
- There's a bit which says the CFR today is unreliable(which I understand because not everyone is having this disease is tested, so the denominator will increase and the numerator of deaths due to this, assuming everyone who died and had Covid-19 was accurately tagged), so it may be lower.
- Too early to say what it's rate of transmission is. All they know is that it happens in clusters, which isn't really a surprise. Loads of 'groups' of people(example: healthcare workers, families) in close contact tested positive.
Thanks, Zing.
I was in Italy two weeks ago... that said, I havent felt ill at all yet. Still gets a bit concerning.
Like i said, should have put the world on lock down a while back.
Well in that case I may as well quarantine myself as I'm in the next room to her - in fact we would need to close our office as she was in work yesterday. Let's be honest, that ain't gonna happen.
Just go in tomorrow and start coughing. That'll prompt them to take action.
No, but it should. That’s why this will be endemic soon enough. Everyone thinks they don’t have it until they’ve got it.
Got a bit more serious now as GP has advised hospital swab her for the virus - they have to go there tomorrow to get checked as her daughter has a temperature and sore throat. Bit worried now. We are an NHS mental health office so generally shutting up simply is not an option as we have over 600 patients relying on us.
To add to that, excluding Wuhan/Hubei province the global fatality rate is 0.8%, although there is not really clarity on how accurate that number is because most deaths have other medical conditions. It's hard to tell whether they died from Coronavirus or the underlying condition, so it could actually be lower. Apparently these viruses lose lethality as time goes on too because the most deadly strains kill their hosts off too effectively.
Everyone will probably be fine but it’s comforting to know that they are taking it seriously. Try not to worry about it and just heed the advice if you are given any. Hope all goes well.
reading that back I am worried that they are being asked to go to a hospital! Hopefully they will be met outside by the doctors in protective gear and taken to isolation. Can you imagine someone walking in to the front desk and proclaiming “I am here for my Coronavirus swab!”Haha
Having read all the online advice about self isolating, I just rang 111 and am getting a callback later on at some point
After 2 weeks I would've thought you'd be fine but they might test you. You could be a super spreader!Having read all the online advice about self isolating, I just rang 111 and am getting a callback later on at some point
Where in Italy? If you feel fine you only need to self isolate if you went to one of the red zone towns on lockdown, which is unlikely as they are all pretty rural.Having read all the online advice about self isolating, I just rang 111 and am getting a callback later on at some point
I was skiing near the French border. The town/resort I was in hasnt been named as one of the 11 places, but reading some local news, apparently they [my resort] have cancelled all public activities this week as a precaution.
Personally I would be happy to just be tested for it to make sure. I feel fine myself, but hate the idea of spreading it around and being responsible for infecting people.
That's been introduced across the whole of Northern Italy, it's not specific to the area you were in, and there have been no cases in the mountains near France. If you've been back for 2 weeks already i wouldn't worry.
Seriously just close all borders at this point, ground flights. Public transport & planes are just huge spreaders with their air conditioning and close proximity to other people
Fair. Im certainly not wanting to be hysterical about it, just thought I might be able to weasel a few days off work
Its more like a week ive been back though, for what its worth.
Yeah meeting in carpark, full gowns and everything
If someone vulnerable or unlucky is going to catch it then they might be better doing so early in the outbreak whilst good medical care is available, rather than later when hospitals might be overwhelmed. In a month or two the happiest people around could be those that have already had it.
Not much chance of that. The virus is basically beyond being contained now.
What’s the chances of the euros going ahead if it doesn’t die off?
Well, I certainly think the Premier League should be abandoned for the season and the results voided.
I deliberately left that part out because I found it confusing. You'd think the denominator would be inflated in Wuhan/Hubei because way more people are being tested, versus outside of Wuhan/Hubei where only the most serious cases are tested. What am I missing?
Viruses like these can be more deadly when they first appear. The first 100+ people to catch this had something like a 20% death rate. We don't know how to deal with them and over time the more deadly strains die out as they kill off their hosts before they get chance to spread it.
Except for the fact that they will still be exposed to it and might contract it again only with a weaker immune system next time around.
Does an infection make people immune to the virus?
Whether patients develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection that will protect them against future infections is still a mystery. Surveys of SARS patients around five or 10 years after their recovery suggest that the coronavirus antibodies don’t persist for very long, Gralinski says. “They found either very low levels or no antibodies that were able to recognize SARS proteins.”
However, for the new coronavirus, “we would expect some immunity, at least in the short term,” she says.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160
Whether patients develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection that will protect them against future infections is still a mystery. Surveys of SARS patients around five or 10 years after their recovery suggest that the coronavirus antibodies don’t persist for very long, Gralinski says. “They found either very low levels or no antibodies that were able to recognize SARS proteins.”
However, for the new coronavirus, “we would expect some immunity, at least in the short term,” she says.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160
Agreed
So how did it originate? Umbrella Corp?
Is that possible? Surely once you've fought it off, you'll have the antibodies to deal with it quicker the next time (assuming it's the same strain).
What does it mean long term if it isn't contained? Will it become a yearly thing like influenza which mutates and comes back in different forms?
Surely the more it spreads the more likely it is to then mutate into a different version?
Surely the more it spreads the more likely it is to then mutate into a different version?
That is interesting - thanks. What is the source for this?
The WHO has a video on youtube on how to wash your hands, and how to use hand sanitizer.
This reminds me of a notice on a farm I saw 'Trepassers will be shot. Survivors will be shot again'.
I don't think it's known for certain yet whether it can be caught twice, but you normally build up at least some immunity to a virus, unless it significantly mutates of course.
Thanks for the info. I'll take a look.
All this thread shows is the world was a simpler place before the internet talk about hysteria.
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Surprise surprise, it was always going worldwide, lets not kid ourselves. Not saying it was easy to contain it, but we didn't even try really