SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Rado_N

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So you think anyone travelling on non-essential travel now, say a weekend away, deserves cover if all shops and hotels are closed, the border then also and they get stranded?
Quite certain he means the move isn’t enough for people who already had travel planned and paid for to be compensated by their insurance because travel isn’t “banned”.
 

Skills

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Guys, how long before we know for certain if these lockdowns will actually work?

I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries. :(
Somewhere between 2-3 weeks to slow spread. The amount of time it takes to bring the total number of infections down to a manageable level depends on your starting point. China started at 400 and it's 4 weeks pending.
 

Beachryan

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That's been the biggest question in all this. Trying to find the balance between fewest deaths because of the virus and fewest deaths because of the economy is the hardest thing. All the statistics seem to suggest though that if left to run it's own course, the number of deaths could be in the millions, partly directly from the virus and mostly from the sheer strain on health services.

We're in uncharted territory and we will only really know who had the best idea when it's all over and we analyse the different response models and outcomes.
Yeah, that's a pretty fair take. Scary times either way.
 

maniak

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Silly Question time: I normally go around at night taking photos in my hometown. I do it alone and if I don't touch anything there's zero chance I can get this, right?
 

Irwin99

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This bloke says different.

For the record, he's the editor of The Lancet

I worked at the Lancet, only as an admin bod mind. Although he was a bit arrogant at times he seemed a very ethical, honest guy. I don't think anyone can interpret this as political points scoring but instead it's genuine dismay at what's happened.
 

BluesJr

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Silly Question time: I normally go around at night taking photos in my hometown. I do it alone and if I don't touch anything there's zero chance I can get this, right?
You’ll be fine.
 

Dante

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2.4 million people who work at pubs, clubs, restaurants, theatres, etc. are at risk of losing their jobs in the UK after the recent shutdown advisories.

That's just the tip of the iceberg.
 

sullydnl

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This last response I made to you, would be my comment on this. I'm not sure how qualified we are to otherwise make the strong conclusion that you are.
Oh sorry, missed that response initially between different replies.

My issue with it is that various governments have argued that the careful timing and planning of measures is critical, a point I've then happily recycled when people suggest various measures need to be taken earlier. The point being that every day matters, every measure has secondary effects, every decision has to be carefully weighed against its context.

It's then difficult to square that with the argument that an early and easily avoidable shift in approach will have had no impact, even if we're told by the people who made the original misjudgment that the strategies weren't that different anyway. They were certainly different enough to attract the intense and urgent criticism of people who subsequently turned out to be correct.

All countries will and should evolve their strategies as new information is presented to them. That doesn't mean they're above being criticised for errors though. And it's hard to frame this as anything other than an error when the fundamental flaw in their initial approach was so immediately obvious to others and could have been avoided simply by sticking closer to what the WHO was recommending.

I mean even random idiots on the caf turned out to have been right. That's enough to dent my confidence in any government.
 

TMDaines

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Silly Question time: I normally go around at night taking photos in my hometown. I do it alone and if I don't touch anything there's zero chance I can get this, right?
There's more chance you get hit by a car.
 

redshaw

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With UK, they can still close schools soon and then a lockdown and still be inline with France or Spain as they're a few weeks ahead in the spread. I checked online and France closed schools at around 5000 cases and 120 dead 5 days ago. We're quite a ways yet and have done more testing than France and Spain.

Netherlands have jumped up quite a bit with 1700 cases and 43 deaths with 17 million population.

UK will react just like Italy, France Spain when some big numbers come in.
 

blue blue

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missed the start of this, but surely something has to change in china in some way shape or form, do you not agree?
Butting in here but I totally agree. SARS, MERS and now this. Its always them.

This can't go unchallenged.
 

DavelinaJolie

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This is all a bit surreal. I've been on annual leave since Wednesday and due back at work on Monday morning. I work for Adult Social Services and have no idea what is going on work wise, right now. Also have a stinking cold. Not really liking forward to returning to work on Monday, and wondering what the hell is going to happen if things like LD day services close for a period.

Might be time to train in something else.
 

Skills

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Butting in here but I totally agree. SARS, MERS and now this. Its always them.

This can't go unchallenged.
I think the western govts showed exactly where they stand, when they refused to put in place travel restrictions to China when this thing started.

I'm wondering if China will have the same policy. Everyday now, they seem to be reporting that their biggest source of infections now is Europe. So i wonder how long it will take them to ban travel from Europe or at least heavily quarantine anyone coming from Europe.
 

Simbo

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No doubt coming from the PC crowd running around branding everything under the sun racist.
The PC crowd? Its just science isn't it? Viruses mutate and spread between animals all the time, humans being just another animal that gets infected from and passes infections onto other mammals. This has happenned since the dawn of time. I'm not sure there is much China could have done to prevent it.
 

432JuanMata

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Butting in here but I totally agree. SARS, MERS and now this. Its always them.

This can't go unchallenged.
When SARS happened they closed the wet wildlife trade but then reopened it, in 100% sure this time it will not be reopened as this is affecting the whole world and there will be international backlash if they did
 

TMDaines

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I go around parks and abandoned areas, so getting mugged is my only concern.
You should obviously be complying with whatever national guidance you have, but most countries are letting people go outside for exercise and mental health. It's the social interaction that needs to be limited. I think if I needed some fresh air, I'd be driving somewhere fairly remote, as we long we would be allowed to get there.
 

Fingeredmouse

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Butting in here but I totally agree. SARS, MERS and now this. Its always them.

This can't go unchallenged.
It's not always them and a clue lies in the name of one of the acronyms you just used. There have been transfers from consumption of vectors in Africa too in the last century although China's population densities and productionised wet markets does make it a high risk area. This doesn't mean, however, that the global community needs to stop wet markets and the bush meat trades and not just for disease management. Not easy to enforce though.
 

Ekkie Thump

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At some point we will all have to face the fact that we are going to be seriously impacted. We will either be related to or know someone that dies from this. I am not fobbing this off but trying to put a true perspective on how we should view this.

At some point we will all need to accept a new normal and its going to be hard and adopting a view that .38% is quite small is a part of that adaption. This is the very worst situation that Imperial College is predicting and hopefully the new measures and further measures later in the week will reduce this figure significantly.

.38% isn't going to end our society, it's not the end of the world and we will prevail.
.38% is nowhere near the worst that Imperial College is predicting, what on earth are you talking about? Here is the actual word for word assessment of the worst case scenario for the UK from the Imperial College study:

in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
That's twice your figure and doesn't even take into account the excess deaths caused by lack of access to necessary healthcare.

Your figure is based on the number of deaths being 250,000. That is an optimistic figure, not a worst case scenario. Again from the study:

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.