SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,731
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
Little report on BBC website that some buses in Canning Town are arriving at full capacity. Would've liked to have seen more buses run and some workers allowed to arrive a bit later. Hope they had all the windows open.

Does seem as though herd immunity lite is in operation. Being a major international hub it's probably impossible to be on egg shells for 1-2 years.
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,981
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
So, which countries did well so far? We shall base our wild assumptions on random and biased news reports.

Here's my Top 5:
  1. New Zealand
  2. Australia
  3. Israel
  4. Singapore
  5. South Korea
Isolated, small/wealthy or previous practical pandemic experience covers most of them.

The real surprise success stories are all the Eastern European countries (with the obvious exception of Russia!). I’d love to know how/why they did so well. Maybe they tick the “isolated” box?
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
120,096
Location
Dublin, Ireland
really interesting. It seems Singapore was clearly well ahead in preparation for something like this. Perhaps understandable given SARS but it still appears such planning and knowledge wasn’t sought by lesser prepared governments which is frustrating.
I think Asian countries in general are far more advanced and meticulous in their planning than western countries, perhaps because they have more experience. It’s 2nd nature to them to wear face masks for example. Perhaps when it comes to face masks we should be copying them.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,538
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
Yeah but now it's not the government's fault because they did tell people to use common sense afterall :lol:

It's funny how we've gone from 'we must follow the science' to 'Tom 29 from Stoke with 3 GCSEs should just use his common sense'
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
120,096
Location
Dublin, Ireland
Little report on BBC website that some buses in Canning Town are arriving at full capacity. Would've liked to have seen more buses run and some workers allowed to arrive a bit later. Hope they had all the windows open.

Does seem as though herd immunity lite is in operation. Being a major international hub it's probably impossible to be on egg shells for 1-2 years.
In Ireland they have social distancing efforts on public transport- basically a bus that holds 60 people is ruining at max capacity of 17, with A lot of seats covered with Covid/do not sit messages

aren’t they doing that in the U.K.?
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
120,096
Location
Dublin, Ireland
Yeah but now it's not the government's fault because they did tell people to use common sense afterall :lol:

It's funny how we've gone from 'we must follow the science' to 'Tom 29 from Stoke with 3 GCSEs should just use his common sense'
Even the highly educated don’t have common sense - see the government
 

JB08

Searches for nude pics of Marcos Rojo
Joined
Mar 16, 2013
Messages
8,420
So Boris said the other night that there are threat levels 1-5 on the virus - where can you find out what the level currently is? Surely it should be as easy as a quick Google?
 

balaks

Full Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
15,335
Location
Northern Ireland
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
I completely agree.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,938
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
So Boris said the other night that there are threat levels 1-5 on the virus - where can you find out what the level currently is? Surely it should be as easy as a quick Google?
It was 4 last week in the UK, don't know whether it's changed since then.

EDIT: Quick Google search indicates that it's still 4 and aiming to get down to 3 in the coming days/weeks.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,317
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
It's an illustration. What would you prefer? A rocky line with peaks and troughs that most wont understand and everybody can complain about when they don't match up exactly to what really happens? A second wave that is impossible to predict and makes people question the point of following any of these measures?
 

Shakesy

WW Head of Recruiting
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
9,981
Location
Directly under the sun... NOW!
Isolated, small/wealthy or previous practical pandemic experience covers most of them.

The real surprise success stories are all the Eastern European countries (with the obvious exception of Russia!). I’d love to know how/why they did so well. Maybe they tick the “isolated” box?
Eastern European countries are suffering!

Belarus' leader denies the existence of COVID and Ukraine is quickly becoming an epicenter. I speak to Ukrainians daily and most think the virus is a hoax or is overblown. They just lifted some restrictions there, but nothing much has changed. Restaurants are open and mask-less people wander around in the street. They are terribly under-equipped with medical supplies as well...

UKR is going south very quickly. Maybe Romania, Poland, etc are doing well?
 
Last edited:

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,676
Location
The Zone

Sky is really getting into the habit of showing footage of low paid workers on public transport in order to anger the current large middle class viewership stuck at home.
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
120,096
Location
Dublin, Ireland

Sky is really getting into the habit of showing footage of low paid workers on public transport in order to anger the current large middle class viewership stuck at home.
It doesn’t matter who the footage is off - packed busses are going to lead to spikes
 

africanspur

Full Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2010
Messages
9,153
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur

Sky is really getting into the habit of showing footage of low paid workers on public transport in order to anger the current large middle class viewership stuck at home.
Shock as people in city of 9 million, where people heavily rely on public transport to get around and many don't even own cars, have to use public transport to get to work when told by the government they should be working.

As you said though, I'm sure it will allow a lot of people who can comfortably work from home/ who have the luxury of owning a car in a city like London the opportunity to judge these people for lack of social distancing.
 

thebelfastboy

Full Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2007
Messages
875
Location
Belfast
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
Honest question, what's the basis for assuming that the second wave or peak will 'tower above' the first.
Surely people have significantly better awareness about distancing, hygiene, wfh etc??
 

buchansleftleg

Full Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Messages
3,722
Location
Dublin, formerly Manchester
Little report on BBC website that some buses in Canning Town are arriving at full capacity. Would've liked to have seen more buses run and some workers allowed to arrive a bit later. Hope they had all the windows open.

Does seem as though herd immunity lite is in operation. Being a major international hub it's probably impossible to be on egg shells for 1-2 years.
Didn't Boris order those trendy London Buses with the non-opening windows and mega expensive curved glass everywhere.... He is starting to rival Chris Grayling for his decisions coming back to cost us dearly. Mind you Grayling mostly cost us money...Boris has blood on his hands.
 

Penna

Kind Moderator (with a bit of a mean streak)
Staff
Joined
May 1, 2012
Messages
49,685
Location
Ubi caritas et amor, Deus ibi est.
Vietnam seem to have done very well.
My nephew lives there and it's been brilliant. He and his partner stayed in the country near her family for a while, but very little changed and now everything's back to normal. They've gone back to Ho Chi Minh City and he sent us a vid the other day of them walking around the streets - everything open, no-one wearing masks that I could see.

I'm not sure how they've done it, but whatever they've done it's worked.
 

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,731
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
It's an illustration. What would you prefer? A rocky line with peaks and troughs that most wont understand and everybody can complain about when they don't match up exactly to what really happens? A second wave that is impossible to predict and makes people question the point of following any of these measures?
It's a completely unnecessary illustration and intentionally vague and disingenuous. If they are trying to indicate that the different stages are triggered by the R value then they should have scrapped the graph and given us a more absolute list with the target R values because god forbid we're actually given details and specifics instead of shitty slogans and abstract graphs.
  • R1 = Lockdown as we know it.
  • R0.8 = Step 1
  • R0.5 = Step 2
  • R0.3 = Step 3

If we reach the target R, we get rewarded with relaxed measures. If we abuse it and the R goes back up, we enter back into the relevant level of lockdown. At least that way the public understands the implications.
 

balaks

Full Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
15,335
Location
Northern Ireland
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
Honest question, what's the basis for assuming that the second wave or peak will 'tower above' the first.
Surely people have significantly better awareness about distancing, hygiene, wfh etc??
I think it's that there may be potential for a higher number of infections because the virus is much more established within the community now.
 

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,731
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
Honest question, what's the basis for assuming that the second wave or peak will 'tower above' the first.
Surely people have significantly better awareness about distancing, hygiene, wfh etc??
This first wave originated in a handful of locations from a handful of cases. The virus is now prevalent in every corner of the UK to varying degrees. Talk of the R being below 1 now is nonsense if people are suddenly going to be using public transport and acting like they were back in February. The mechanics of the virus hasn't changed. A full bus in May will propagate the virus in exactly the same was a full bus in March did.
 

romufc

Full Member
Joined
Apr 30, 2019
Messages
12,557
Honest question, what's the basis for assuming that the second wave or peak will 'tower above' the first.
Surely people have significantly better awareness about distancing, hygiene, wfh etc??
Complacency, with time people get complacent and feel powerful.
 

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,731
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
Blaming of the public has begun !
It's madness. If the government really had any motivation to avoid this they would have put measures in place to make sure it didn't happen. Every single mode of public transport in England has a sticker on it saying the maximum passenger capacity. How difficult would it have been to instruct the bus companies to operate at 50% capacity. If a bus can seat 70 people, bring it into law that they can only have 35 passengers.
 

balaks

Full Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
15,335
Location
Northern Ireland
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
It's madness. If the government really had any motivation to avoid this they would have put measures in place to make sure it didn't happen. Every single mode of public transport in England has a sticker on it saying the maximum passenger capacity. How difficult would it have been to instruct the bus companies to operate at 50% capacity. If a bus can seat 70 people, bring it into law that they can only have 35 passengers.
The poor bus driver aint going to be able to police that though - that's the problem.
 

buchansleftleg

Full Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Messages
3,722
Location
Dublin, formerly Manchester
Honest question, what's the basis for assuming that the second wave or peak will 'tower above' the first.
Surely people have significantly better awareness about distancing, hygiene, wfh etc??
I think there are 2 potential reasons - one is that the initial peak comes from a small initial base of infection that rapidly spreads to all it can until things get locked down. So whilst you might feel like the disease is continuing to spread it is in fact lying dormant waiting for....release of lockdown...which allows a sudden massive increase in the numbers of people to infect and the disease spreads even more rapidly as people mass together thinking they are now safe.

The second reason is the potential for a further wave to be a mutated form of the virus which is either more deadly or has adapted to overcome initial treatments. The Spanish Flue epidemic highlighted both of these. As the initial first wave subsided the First world war ended, leading to mass celebrations, mass movement of troops around the world. This also coincided with a virulent strain coming from an American Army camp that effected younger, fitter people far more than the first wave.

This second wave travelled more globally as troops were sent back to places like India and lead to the complete overwhelming of medical resources as young fit men drowned in their own blood. It's estimated that around 10-15 million died in the first wave and 50 - 85 million died in the second wave. Some people think this has no relevance because of modern medicine and while they didn't have things like antibiotics back then, that would only have helped avoid secondary infection, not the disease itself.

This is very much a worst case scenario...it is most likely that the mutations will be to lessen the diseases impact rather than increase it. However if we release lockdown too early there is an increased risk that one of the potentially thousands of mutations that could occur will prove to be one that makes it more deadly, or adapts to overcome one of our treatment methods.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,938
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
It's a completely unnecessary illustration and intentionally vague and disingenuous. If they are trying to indicate that the different stages are triggered by the R value then they should have scrapped the graph and given us a more absolute list with the target R values because god forbid we're actually given details and specifics instead of shitty slogans and abstract graphs.
  • R1 = Lockdown as we know it.
  • R0.8 = Step 1
  • R0.5 = Step 2
  • R0.3 = Step 3

If we reach the target R, we get rewarded with relaxed measures. If we abuse it and the R goes back up, we enter back into the relevant level of lockdown. At least that way the public understands the implications.
R1 will never again lead to lockdown as we know it.

Denmark has re-opened the country, schools, and certain facilities from mid-April onwards. Their R0 went from 0.6 to 1.0 and back down to 0.7. Laying off restrictions won't necessarily lead to a sudden increase of R0 as long as most people adhere to the rules in place such as wearing face masks, social distancing, and just being vigilant when around other people. It's only if you have disaster scenarios such as the packed public transport in London that you're gonna see a rapid increase of infections again.
 

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,731
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
The poor bus driver aint going to be able to police that though - that's the problem.
They already do when they drive past bus stops because they are full.
 

arnie_ni

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2014
Messages
15,206
We're going to have a second spike in 5/6 weeks and going to be back in lock down. This is just beyond fecking stupid and I refuse to believe the Government did not expect this to happen when they changed the rules.




This graph is just so disingenuous. It's not going to be a steady decline at all, it's going to be a roller-coaster with the second peak towering over the first.
Do you think they try to hid it someway and avoid a second lockdown?
 

NYAS

Full Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
Messages
4,323
Does anyone have any theory on what is going on in Bahrain and Singapore? The first one has a death rate of 0.16% while the second one of 0.085% (which is lower than the estimated casualty death rate from seasonal flu).

Just lucky (as in, their infected being healthy young people) or something else?

Bear in mind, the death rate has been in those levels for months now.
As someone from the Gulf I can tell you Bahrain numbers are likely not real. They are doing worse than us (Kuwait) because the initial arrival of the virus into both countries were religious worshippers coming back from Iran (back when the virus was ravaging Iran) and Bahrain have way more people who regularly attend those ceremonies. Earlier in the pandemic there were videos going viral of them not having enough hospital beds to house cases. You can probably trust the numbers of all Gulf countries except Bahrain and KSA.
 

arnie_ni

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2014
Messages
15,206
In Ireland they have social distancing efforts on public transport- basically a bus that holds 60 people is ruining at max capacity of 17, with A lot of seats covered with Covid/do not sit messages

aren’t they doing that in the U.K.?
No


And the media are blaming the public not the government
 

buchansleftleg

Full Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Messages
3,722
Location
Dublin, formerly Manchester
I know it's only relative but for the last few days since Saturday we barely heard any ambulances going to the nearby Hospital. Until Yesterday...and today we are now starting to hear more and more ambulances going past for emergency calls. Prepare for big death totals in around 9 days time. I hope I'm proved wrong but if I'm right then this government should be forced to resign given how badly they have handled this.

We need a government of SOME of the talents rather than this cretinous mob of ghouls.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,317
It's a completely unnecessary illustration and intentionally vague and disingenuous. If they are trying to indicate that the different stages are triggered by the R value then they should have scrapped the graph and given us a more absolute list with the target R values because god forbid we're actually given details and specifics instead of shitty slogans and abstract graphs.
  • R1 = Lockdown as we know it.
  • R0.8 = Step 1
  • R0.5 = Step 2
  • R0.3 = Step 3

If we reach the target R, we get rewarded with relaxed measures. If we abuse it and the R goes back up, we enter back into the relevant level of lockdown. At least that way the public understands the implications.
There are three problems with that.

First, and most importantly, you need to communicate this stuff to the lowest common denominator. People who have no idea what R0 is and wouldn't understand it if you tried to tell them. And then to people like most of us in this thread who know just enough about it to be dangerous - people who are educated enough to interpret the information in the wrong way.

You also need to avoid making absolute declarations because things might change and R0 is only part of the story. An R0 of 2 is not a big problem if hospitals are empty, but an R0 of <1 can still be a huge problem if you're already at breaking point.

Thirdly, if they say Step 2 comes at R0=0.5, every media outlet in the country will be wheeling out various 'experts' all with their own explanation of what they think the R0 is and why the government is wrong. No doubt it is one of the metrics they will be using behind the scenes.