SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
UK fatality numbers looking pretty high for a Friday.
They were low yesterday, i think a reporting lag in the 'deaths from all settings' number. Still showing a downward trend, but not a huge jump as to what they were expecting.
The dip looks to have plateaued in the last week or so. Hope this isn't supposed to be expected as part of the "new normal".
I am starting to think that we are the only country actually reporting anything close to accurate figures, and many would say we are still under reporting. Italy, particularly, and Spain were totally engulfed by coronavirus, yet their deaths per million population are now both below that of the UK, where, whilst stretched, the NHS did not hit anything close to breaking point and the Nightingale hospitals were not significantly utilised.
The other thing I have realised is that there is a lag of up to 2 weeks between the reduction in new cases and the reduction in casualties. The same thing happened in both Italy & Spain, where the number of new cases was falling significantly, but the death rate didn't seem to change for days and days.
Italian infections up significantly today, from 177 yesterday to 518 today. Deaths remain in the 80s.
Lombardy accounts for 402 of those new infections, most of them in Milan, Bergamo and Brescia. It's worrying for the rest of the country, as regional borders were opened 2 days ago. I really think Lombardy needs to be isolated again from the other regions.
Lombardy accounts for 402 of those new infections, most of them in Milan, Bergamo and Brescia. It's worrying for the rest of the country, as regional borders were opened 2 days ago. I really think Lombardy needs to be isolated again from the other regions.
How do people wear glasses and a mask, when ever I have tried it, it’s like walking into a warm pub on a freezing night my glasses just completely fog up.
I saw a tip today that you should put a strip of folded tissue paper across the bridge of your nose and under the mask to absorb the extra moisture from your breath.
I believe it was an attempt at crowd control - to maintain a sense of collective order rather than risk descending into unwanted panic. I think they knew they'd already done some damage and wanted to make it that people didn't see these signifiers (masks) on a daily basis as a reminder. It's something that seems to have happened in Murrika where you see a lot of stigmatisation about people wearing masks; in some cases, social shaming and violence.
I also believe it's because they feared people wouldn't act properly and social distance if they thought they were safe-guarded by wearing masks.
Just a guess of course but overall, it seems mainly like a psychological decision.
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Mon-Fri last week 1477
Mon-Fri this week 1327
150 less but not great. Was hoping the bulk was Tue Wed and today would follow on from the 176 yesterday.
Another twist in the hydroxychloroquine drama.
The study claiming that Hydroxychloroquine resulted in increased morbidity has been retracted. It is important to note that many large scale clinical trials, including WHO's had been stopped based on this study.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext
The critical analysis of the paper in this blog is mind boggling. How it made into Lancet has to be a serious investigation.
http://freerangestats.info/blog/2020/05/30/implausible-health-data-firm
The study claiming that Hydroxychloroquine resulted in increased morbidity has been retracted. It is important to note that many large scale clinical trials, including WHO's had been stopped based on this study.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext
The critical analysis of the paper in this blog is mind boggling. How it made into Lancet has to be a serious investigation.
http://freerangestats.info/blog/2020/05/30/implausible-health-data-firm
Still don’t understand the lag on the proposed announcements - why announce facemasks will be mandatory for hospital visitors etc from June 15th. Surely if people are only really going to be able to use homemade face coverings, someone could fashion one using a T-shirt or something as of tomorrow?
The positive cases a day seem to be dropping?
That’s definitely not happening. Look at your excess deaths.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country
Something I’ve only just realised about UK data is a huge spike in excess deaths for 15-44 year olds in England (scroll down a good bit on link above).
A few EU countries (e.g. France, Ireland) have seen quite a steep decrease in this age group (presumably less driving? maybe less industrial accidents? or less boozing?) but England is unique in going dramatically in the other direction. The only country out of the 22 listed in which this has happened.
Curiously, this pattern isn’t repeated in the other UK countries.
Maybe your community spread is many multiples higher than anywhere else, where most cases have been in care homes etc? Just goes to show how wrong people are to assume this is only an issue for the old.
Sad to say that once Trump had endorsed the use of the drug the world and his wife laughed and said that it confirmed he was a sandwich short of a picnic. That view automatically destroyed the credibility of anyone engaged in studying its effectiveness.
His view changed nothing for professionals or their credibility. It's outlandish claims from an handful of scientists and botched studies that destroyed the credibility of a few.
This has nothing to do with Trump.
This was not even a feckin study. They just pulled some numbers out of their arse and miraculously Lancet, NEJM accepted it. The peer review process in science is beyond repair.
To be fair to the scientists whose paper in the Lancet got withdrawn they weren’t making outlandish claims at all. Their study simply implied that HCQ does more harm than good in covid patients. Which might still be true. We await the RCT results to find out. Trump definitely made outlandish claims but everyone knows he’s an idiot and you’re right that the scientific community don’t take him seriously.
That’s a bit melodramatic. They were sold bad data by a (probably fraudulent) medical database but the truth came out very quickly and corrections have been published already. At the normal speed at which medical knowledge grows this wouldn’t have been much of an issue. It’s just the crazy pace at which we need to learn about covid which causes cracks to appear.
I wasn't talking about that last paper but the idea that any loss of credibility was linked to Trump. The only scientists who lost credibility are the ones who decided to forfeit scientific methodology for a minute of fame. The last thing about the Lancet is amateurish but as you said most if not all the studies that I have seen ended up being inconclusive anyway, WHO's and some governments acted in a kneejerk way but it had nothing to do with Trump.
I disagree that they were sold the data. I think its highly probable the co-author Desai, knew what he was doing. The others maybe not.
The problem is that I have seen such crap in like predatory journals. It should not have made it into the Lancet and NEJM and should have been chucked out even before it went for peer review.
What this has done is 1) brought the reputation of science/scientific method into question at a time when public opinion of it is at an all time low.
2) given ammunition to conspiracy theorists about deep state working to stop HCQ. Fauci, quoted this paper, I think like many others took it as credible, "since it was in Lancet" and claimed HCQ is dangerous and should be stopped.
Yes, I made some without sewing in about 5 minutes, using an old T-shirt. There are loads of diagrams online.
Wasn’t Desai the owner of Surgisphere? So he definitely knew what was going on! Took the others for a ride, mind you.
Do you really think public opinion of science/medicine is at an all time low? I’d say the opposite is more likely true. I’m not too worried about giving conspiracy loons ammo. They don’t need any ammo to spew inane shite. That’s just what they do.
They lied to us about needing masks and it potentially led to tens of thousands of deaths.357 deaths today, passed 40,000
I said from the beginning that we all should be covering our faces but scientists said otherwise. It just goes to show that scientists will say whatever they are paid to weather it costs lives or not.
One may have to factor in the health of the UK. 75% overweight and around 30% obese. Looking quickly at France, they have around 50% overweight and 18% obese and I read a stat of 83% ICU patients overweight. Other hard hit countries have similar overweight stats to France who've seen a quick turnaround and less younger people affected. Would be interesting to see the stats for our overweight cousins across the pond.
Brazil was said to be almost 1/3 of deaths under 60 recently.
Brazil was said to be almost 1/3 of deaths under 60 recently.
Yes coming down slowly.
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Narrow margins.
I see it more as it being too soon to lift restrictions, which doesn't surprise me given the sh*t show we've seen so far in some of the government decisions.
2nd wave for Italy?
I think that’s what we’ll be seeing for the next year or two. We won’t get national lockdowns again (hopefully
) but there will be lots of local measures needed like this.Its a crock of shit honestly. NHS staff were faced with disciplinary action by managers when wearing masks in work places outside of clinical work for creating "unnecessary panic" and now this u-turn
There's more though
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/healthcare-workers-self-isolate-colleague-tests-positivehancock/
Any health or social care worker with close proximity to a colleague who tests positive would need to self-isolate at home for 14 days, even if asymptomatic. This will be disastrous. I mean I've never had lunch for more than 15 minutes in a hospital-based job in the NHS but in our work environments it is impossible to socially distance. I work in A&E in majors department and its not possible there if you want to use computers to chase things for patients to social isolate in that fast paced environment or when you're waiting to present a case. And entire teams during ward rounds and handovers having to self-isolate will be disastrous.
It was the biggest issue around April, the sheer number of nurses and doctors absent meant insane rota gaps and the most enormous toll on health workers. I'm talking anaesthetic registars working 24 hour shifts, my medical registrar nearly delirious from dehydration. And if we hit a second wave they want to decimate the NHS frontline again.
They make up shit as they go along honestly.
I honestly think it's never been properly under control in Lombardy. The rest of the country is mainly seeing low numbers in both infections and deaths. @11101 lives in Lombardy, so is better-informed than me - but I can't say it's not worrying.
Need to get it locked down regionally then before it spreads again! Sort it out @11101
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Wow, those numbers compared to our immediate neighbours. These Tory Covid-19 numbers look scandalous.
This is not the black and white argument that you make it out to be. There were (and remain) very real problems with wearing facial coverings that have been discussed in this thread already. What I hope has happened is that substantial evidence has come to light which demonstrates that the benefits of the public wearing facial coverings does indeed far outweigh the negatives. I also think you may want to reconsider the difference between gaining better insight in science based on new experiment or data and outright telling a lie. The guidance from the WHO regarding this particular issue seems to have been reasonable to me.
Common sense should have told you it was a stupid thing to do.
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Across the North West generally it looks like only about 8% of schools did actually open to the extra pupils in Y1/Y6 this week. The government might look at those graphs and see "control" - looks like Manchester is looking at them and seeing "right on the edge."
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c.../north-west-schools-snub-governments-18366392
It's been noticeable for a while that the decline in hospital admissions, that the press conferences keep talking about, has looked dangerously close to a plateau in the north-west. Some local authorities (like Bury) outright recommended that schools delayed any return for pupils (other than the existing key worker and vulnerable pupil provision) until at least the 15th June, others have just urged caution. In practice though, most schools (at the decision of the governors and teachers) haven't opened, saying they need more time to prepare.
Across the North West generally it looks like only about 8% of schools did actually open to the extra pupils in Y1/Y6 this week. The government might look at those graphs and see "control" - looks like Manchester is looking at them and seeing "right on the edge."
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c.../north-west-schools-snub-governments-18366392
In truth most of those 'real problems' weren't backed by much science either though were they?
It doesn't look like there is much science to support the change in advice and the WHO doesn't appear to have changed its judgement on their effectiveness. I guess we can all just assume there is and thus declare it reasonable but that would be an odd approach to take.
That is precisely the point I was making. If you can't say either way, then it seems reasonable to not issue advice stating they should be compulsory.