SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Revan]

The reason they are giving is that a lockdown now, if the model is correct, will have little effect on the spread. It's everywhere.

Lockdown now and there's no going back, and the strain the lockdown will put on public services will feck everything, including the NHS if it goes on too long. The idea behind the science is that the UK, start the lockdown BEFORE we hit Italy's point.

That could be in 2 days, 5 days. But the UK will lockdown. Doing it now when the NHS are holding up fine and can absolutely help with a lot more cases, will cause more problems than it solves. There is sound logic behind it.

I hope their model is true. I don't see how it can be. The number of real infected cases seems to be 10-50 times higher. So, NHS is already overwhelmed, just that it will take a week or two to realize it, when those recently infected are gonna need help. The number of cases is doubling every 3 days. Start the lockdown in a week and that number increases by 4. The UK has 1372 official cases now, if we assume a conservative 10x hidden cases (recently infected but don't know it yet), then that number of 13720. In a week it is gonna be circa 55k (with the majority of them showing symptoms in 2-3 weeks from now). Don't do the lockdown for another week after that and the number jumps to 200k.

It doesn't matter if NHS is doing well today. Even with draconian measures set today, the NHS is gonna be overwhelmed in 3-4 weeks from now.

And let me not even start in the US who are doing an even worse job than the UK. The best bet is to either get sick now or to win the lottery of not getting sick at all (or being with mild symptoms). If I will need a ventilator one month from now, I will die, simple as that. The vast majority of those who will need a ventilator one month from now are gonna die, sad as it is. With immediate draconian measures. Without them, it gets worse.

 

[Starkie_1]

The good old ‘if they don’t prove it’s me I’m not bothered’ attitude. You sound like a lovely human.

It’s a ridiculous question which I answered without having to insult or question someone else’s choices despite not knowing them. But thanks

 

[Prometheus]

Of course it makes mathematical sense. If the virus is everywhere, as expected, you let the model reach a critical number before shutting down your essential services and possibly taking away lots of staff from the NHS and other essentials because they have to take care of their children for months.

Whilst the NHS can cope, you allow it to cope.

Unless people think we can completely nip this in the bud now. Fair enough, but I think that's extremely naive.

It's clear to me you're not putting much thought to your posts.

It's waste of time replying to you.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I hope their model is true. I don't see how it can be. The number of real infected cases seems to be 10-50 times higher.

Yes, and they have modelled that, is what they are saying.

Maybe they are wrong, maybe their model is utter shite. But it is a scientific model and right now, none of us how this will play out anywhere. Even the places we think "may" have it under control.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It's clear to me you're not putting much thought to your posts.

It's waste of time replying to you.

Ah yeah, me and the UK SAGE team, no thought whatsoever.

Prometheus though, he knows, he's a real thinker.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

America First.

 

[justboy68]

That's false. Someone like @Arruda and @Pogue Mahone can confirm but CFR(case fatality rate) is strictly defined as the fatality/ number of diagnosed cases.

So maybe my initial point about both figures being affected by under reporting was right after all then. It's hard to know what to believe in this day and age!

 

[zing]

Countries who are gonna be Wuhan x10 are the lucky and the smart ones. Wuhan x1000 is a real possibility for many.

Yea - I said that a bit casually.

In reality, I think India will literally be the worst hit country in the world.

The official policy is to test only those with travel history to the worst affected countries.
There have been 100 detected cases. Post-death testing to attribute cause of death is horrible in the best of times, let alone now.
# of tests completed is 7,000, which is the worst per capita in the world. Testing capacity is at 2,000 a day with no attempt to expand.
The local state's health minister thinks this will blow over by April 10th(just picked an arbitrary number).
The local private clinics aren't authorized to test. They are referring patients with symptoms of Covid-19 who are being turned away by the government hospitals because they don't have travel history.

This is a disaster in the making. Someone said in 3 months we'll have green zones(countries which managed this) and red zones(countries crippled by this).

India is going to be top of the red zone list.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I'll give that a rest for tonight.

I'll leave by saying that all countries missed their chance in early January to nip this in the bud. This isn't going away and I hope all governments follow the advice given to them by their pandemic experts, if they are doing that, I really see no need to hate on them for it.

 

[Siorac]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Trump is a crime against humanity.

(even if this is not true, really...)

 

[Conor]

Don’t even know where to start with this. I’ve been around 800+ children and adults for the past month, plenty who’ve come back from holidays in Italy and spain. Likelihood is a lot of people have had it, in the school and in the community. How you then trace that back to one person, to suit your agenda is upto you

So your opinion is essentially that other people have done it, so I'm not going to stop what I'm doing. You sound like a thoroughly pleasant individual, do you cull the losers at the end of each PE session?

 

[JPRouve]

Of course it makes mathematical sense. If the virus is everywhere, as expected, you let the model reach a critical number before shutting down your essential services and possibly taking away lots of staff from the NHS and other essentials because they have to take care of their children for months.

Whilst the NHS can cope, you allow it to cope.

But the virus isn't everywhere equally, you just have to look at a map of all countries affected and you will notice that there are hotspots and very different figures from one area to the other. A more sophisticated approach would be to adapt the public response to the context, for example in Occitanie you have almost 6m people and "only" 214 cases but based on what we see in the northern regions, we decided to go in a gradually more stringent lockdown because despite the fact that it's a region with very good medical infrastructures avoiding a massive spread will allow less pressure on medical professionals unlike what is happening in Paris and the Grand Est.

 

[sullydnl]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Volumiza]

I'm only jerking your pudding.

Remember to wash your hands afterwards.

 

[OnlyTwoDaSilvas]

BBC: Bath half marathon goes ahead despite Coronavirus fears



Full BBC story here.

FFS

My missus' brother in law took part in it, even though his family had been advised to self-isolate by 111 on Thursday, as his wife and son have both been very unwell during the week. Total fanny.

 

[Arruda]

That's false. Someone like @Arruda and @Pogue Mahone can confirm but CFR(case fatality rate) is strictly defined as the fatality/ number of diagnosed cases.

CFR is just that when we're talking about coronavirus.

I cannot confirm that is the case for the flu. The 0,1% being brandied about is a gross estimate, the end result of years of modellong.

I do not know if it factors in undiagnosed/assymptomatic cases, even though I tried to confirm that.

 

[golden_blunder]

Yeah at the moment .

Are you from Derry?

I am originally, still got family there

 

[Highfather_24]

If the virus is everywhere, as expected, you let the model reach a critical number before shutting down your essential services

I think, by that point its too late. By that point, no amount of shutting down things is gonna stop an inevitable health industry collapse. It will be too late.

 

[Starkie_1]

So your opinion is essentially that other people have done it, so I'm not going to stop what I'm doing. You sound like a thoroughly pleasant individual, do you cull the losers at the end of each PE session?

Yeah we play Coronavirus tag.

 

[justboy68]

CFR is just that when we're talking about coronavirus.

I cannot confirm that is the case for the flu. The 0,1% being brandied about is a gross estimate, the end result of years of modellong.

I do not know if it factors in undiagnosed/assymptomatic cases, even though I tried to confirm that.

Thanks for clearing that up Arruda.

 

[golden_blunder]

I apologise if it’s came across that way. It was meant to show the area and the type of people who are out around here, and I’m sure around most of the country. Again apologies it came across at all boastful.

However, there is NO reason for anyone even the over 70’s to be social distancing at the moment. When the plan is released and they tell people to do it. Do it. Don’t go off what youre reading on forums, social media or other counties who have nothing to do with the UKs best interests

Do you need Boris and his mates to tell you when to apply common sense? Going for a roast dinner in a pub is probably not a wise decision right now. You’re playing a game of risk with your and other people’s health. I mean do you trust everything the government tell you?

The way I see it is no one should care about your health more than yourself. If you’re literally waiting for the powers to say keep social distancing then you need to have a look at your priorities

 

[LordNinio]

Yeah that makes sense. I hadn't clocked that the flu figure was based on advanced estimates rather than exact confirmations . Prepare for the worst and hope for the best I'd say. Plan as if its going to be 8-10x as deadly at least and hope it comes out lower.

Yes, most definitely, we've got to be prepared for whatever comes our way with this. It's all unchartered territory

 

[Berbaclass]

When is the next government update/announcement expected?

 

[Smores]

I have a friend who is an ICU nurse and they've been told as of next week ( i think she said next week) that they're prohibited from any social contact. If they're living with families it's a hotel.

 

[sebsheep]

I've actually said the exact opposite, a handful of times.

Each country must follow the scientific advice for their country, I'm saying that if the Sweden and the UK respond differently, because they are different countries to Italy and China and their scientific models advise that; then they should be allowed to do so without the hatred being thrown at the likes of the UK government currently.

Fashionable to slag off the UK response now is it? They clearly have a plan and are clearly following the advice of their experts. But yeah, TwoSheds and a bunch of blokes from the caf know better. The models they are basing this strategy on are assuming that the rate of infection is...

But I'm pleased the UK and Sweden are following expert advice. People like the Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, rather than making political decisions


Yes, and that's the point, they aren't denying that. But the government ARE being slated in here, for following the advice of their experts.

Do you realise how fecking stupid that is? People on redcafe, slating politicians, for following expert advice?


The worst thing about this so far is the sheer amount of fecking imbeciles who think they know better than the UK scientific experts.

They are basing their response on sound science. Here in Sweden we are following quite a similar strategy. Both countries will shut down everything when the model hits that stage. Now if you don't like their science you better be a fecking expert yourself, else shut the feck up, you aren't helping one bit.

Yeah sorry man, must've missed where you said that when reading the above things you posted.

 

[spiriticon]

There must be hundreds of millions of undiagnosed flu cases around the world per year.

I've had it twice/thrice in my life and I've never been to the doctor for it.

Lemsip and Night Nurse and home rest ftw.

 

[Infra-red]

I think, by that point its too late. By that point, no amount of shutting down things is gonna stop an inevitable health industry collapse. It will be too late.

The reason why the government seems so sanguine about the total collapse of the NHS, is because they view it as inevitable. There could be 2 million people in need of critical care beds in June/July (on the government's own numbers). We have 5,000 beds and 4,000 of them are already occupied. Nearly all of those 2m are going to die.

 

[ArjenIsM3]

Dutch government announced the catering industry, sports clubs, day-care and schools are closed untill April 6th.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Well, my girlfriend was contacted by the Austrian embassy today asking her to urgently consider returning to Austria as they think the UK will shortly descend into chaos and they can't guarantee they will be able to extract their citizens when that happens.

Fun times.

 

[Berbaclass]

Well, my girlfriend was contacted by the Austrian embassy today asking her to urgently consider returning to Austria as they think the UK will shortly descend into chaos and they can't guarantee they will be able to extract their citizens when that happens.

That must be a bit scary TBF.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

That must be a bit scary TBF.

You think? She's planning to stay here in London, but fecking hell, this is mental.

 

[christy87]

Well, my girlfriend was contacted by the Austrian embassy today asking her to urgently consider returning to Austria as they think the UK will shortly descend into chaos and they can't guarantee they will be able to extract their citizens when that happens.

Fun times.

That sounds pretty bleak.

 

[golden_blunder]

Some twats being Professor Patrick Vallance, with a history of academic and industrial experience. Remind us what your experience is?

Who is to say that this expert is correct against the experts of other countries who have taken action? Either side could be right which probably means the other side are wrong but also means we are all placing our faith in one man. I’d rather look after my own health and do what I feel is right for me and others around me

 

[The Firestarter]

Well, my girlfriend was contacted by the Austrian embassy today asking her to urgently consider returning to Austria as they think the UK will shortly descend into chaos and they can't guarantee they will be able to extract their citizens when that happens.

Fun times.

I wonder if Lizzy gets it, will people fecking take notice?

 

[One Night Only]

Isn't the virus on its way out in China now?

 

[Arruda]

Well, my girlfriend was contacted by the Austrian embassy today asking her to urgently consider returning to Austria as they think the UK will shortly descend into chaos and they can't guarantee they will be able to extract their citizens when that happens.

Fun times.

Wow.

 

[432JuanMata]

Who is to say that this expert is correct against the experts of other countries who have taken action? Either side could be right which probably means the other side are wrong but also means we are all placing our faith in one man. I’d rather look after my own health and do what I feel is right for me and others around me

Would you trust the majority or minority though ? I’m not sure which side is right, you never know the UK could be right but the majority are doing one thing and the UK are doing the opposite we will have to wait and see

 

[dannyrhinos89]

Just had a quick browse on twitter, It's funny watching all the idiots fighting over food shopping.

I feel sorry for old people or disabled people that rely on home shopping as it seems most have had their orders cancelled.

 

[Starkie_1]

Do you need Boris and his mates to tell you when to apply common sense? Going for a roast dinner in a pub is probably not a wise decision right now. You’re playing a game of risk with your and other people’s health. I mean do you trust everything the government tell you?

The way I see it is no one should care about your health more than yourself. If you’re literally waiting for the powers to say keep social distancing then you need to have a look at your priorities

Again that’s your opinion isn’t it. As this is mine, and plenty of others around the country. I’m not sure how this has ended up being so divisive but it sure isn’t the way forward.

I was actually meant to be at the Spurs game today, what’s worse that away end or the pub? Or both? Doesn’t matter does it, no one can prove either are worse than each other.