I hope their model is true. I don't see how it can be. The number of real infected cases seems to be 10-50 times higher. So, NHS is already overwhelmed, just that it will take a week or two to realize it, when those recently infected are gonna need help. The number of cases is doubling every 3 days. Start the lockdown in a week and that number increases by 4. The UK has 1372 official cases now, if we assume a conservative 10x hidden cases (recently infected but don't know it yet), then that number of 13720. In a week it is gonna be circa 55k (with the majority of them showing symptoms in 2-3 weeks from now). Don't do the lockdown for another week after that and the number jumps to 200k.The reason they are giving is that a lockdown now, if the model is correct, will have little effect on the spread. It's everywhere.
Lockdown now and there's no going back, and the strain the lockdown will put on public services will feck everything, including the NHS if it goes on too long. The idea behind the science is that the UK, start the lockdown BEFORE we hit Italy's point.
That could be in 2 days, 5 days. But the UK will lockdown. Doing it now when the NHS are holding up fine and can absolutely help with a lot more cases, will cause more problems than it solves. There is sound logic behind it.
It doesn't matter if NHS is doing well today. Even with draconian measures set today, the NHS is gonna be overwhelmed in 3-4 weeks from now.
And let me not even start in the US who are doing an even worse job than the UK. The best bet is to either get sick now or to win the lottery of not getting sick at all (or being with mild symptoms). If I will need a ventilator one month from now, I will die, simple as that. The vast majority of those who will need a ventilator one month from now are gonna die, sad as it is. With immediate draconian measures. Without them, it gets worse.