SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

noodlehair said:
I still can't get my head around the 10pm pub closure thing. How did they think this was ever going to work? If you didn't want to close the hospitality sector down, which I can understand, then you had to ban people mixing in households outside of their support bubble for there to be any chance of making an impact. Just seemed like a no brainer to me. Closing a pub an hour earlier...I mean how can you dress that up in any way that explains how it would stop a virus spreading?

I keep trying to convince myself that whoever is making these decisions is informed and going purely off science/data, but then I remember that the likes of Boris, Gove, Mogg and eyetest man are definitely going to be wading their opinions in on any decisions being made, and I actually feel my heart sink. This lot were doing a great job of fecking up millions of people's lives before covid was even a thing.

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I on the other hand don't understand what there is to not understand.

I would go further and suggest that pubs and bars should now stop serving alcohol after 8:30pm, although can stay open until 10pm. That does open up a lot of potential rule breaking (buying 10 points for the table at 8:30 for example, or just ignoring the rule altogether) but it should help more than it hurts.

People keep asking the question, where is the evidence that this helps? What data was this idea based off of.

But the truth is, we're all working a bit blind here. If the government are ignore advice from SAGE or not using data from track and trace, then that's deplorable. But we have to use common sense.

Alcohol reduces social inhibitions. We're trying to encourage social distancing.

What is not to understand.
 
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Heardy said:
Where does that leave us then? Schools cannot remain closed indefinitely.

Remote delivery until we have a vaccine?
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In a proper cluster feck I think.
Schools remaining open is an absolute key thing and really should only be done as a last resort
 
rcoobc said:
I on the other hand don't understand what there is to not understand.

I would go further and suggest that pubs and bars should now stop serving alcohol after 8:30pm, although can stay open until 10pm. That does open up a lot of potential rule breaking (buying 10 points for the table at 8:30 for example, or just ignoring the rule altogether) but it should help more than it hurts.

People keep asking the question, where is the evidence that this helps? What data was this idea based off of.

But the truth is, we're all working a bit blind here. If the government are ignore advice from SAGE or not using data from track and trace, then that's deplorable. But we have to use common sense.

Alcohol reduces social inhibitions. We're trying to encourage social distancing.

What is not to understand.
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I was out last night and everyone was sitting at their own tables, etc - no problem.

Also, you're ignoring all the people employed in the pubs industry - with your proposals, that industry would collapse
 
Wibble said:
Yet in places like AU and NZ where there are very few infections, and therefore tracing tends to be much better, there is very frequent infection between known contacts and family.
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It’s almost certainly the most frequent. Stands to reason that you won’t have a better chance of catching covid than living with someone that’s infected. Doesn’t make the attack rate any higher though.

And the data I’m talking about is consistent with what we saw on cruise ships, which is one of the only scenarios that allowed 100% tracing and testing of all contacts. In the Diamond Princess the attack rate was consistently single digits.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
The “success” has been managing the virus in a calm manner whilst not having to resort to methods you’d associate with an authoritarian regime. I thought that much was obvious by now.
No-one anywhere is claiming they are a “success” across the board.
A democracy like Australia acting like a communist state yet having a death toll 34 times higher than their neighbour NZ certainly aint a success, so what really constitutes “success“ in a pandemic?
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I missed this.

Communist state? :lol:

NZ locked down harder and earlier than us and more power to them.

Sweden has a death rate very nearly 17x higher than Australia. Thousands more dead in a country with less than half the population of Australia.

How does Sweden compare to NZ?
 
@sullydnl, that chart from the Irish government is very good. It's clear and explains what's what at each point in the restrictions. People understand something like that, they can stick it on the fridge and refer to it.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I was out last night and everyone was sitting at their own tables, etc - no problem.

Also, you're ignoring all the people employed in the pubs industry - with your proposals, that industry would collapse
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I'm ignoring it in the same way that I'm ignoring everything in the world I didn't mention

It's a problem.

If the pandemic is going to last years (or somehow get worst and last years) then they need to shut these industries down and these people need to find new jobs.

If the pandemic is going to last months, then they should be supported

But thats not a unique problem for the entertainment industry
 
rcoobc said:
I'm ignoring it in the same way that I'm ignoring everything in the world I didn't mention

It's a problem.

If the pandemic is going to last years (or somehow get worst and last years) then they need to shut these industries down and these people need to find new jobs.

If the pandemic is going to last months, then they should be supported

But thats not a unique problem for the entertainment industry
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Which is fine if the country had only one issue to consider (Covid) but sadly the world is more complicated than that.
 
golden_blunder said:
You believe it?
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The GF has been posted up in Tianjin for a couple of years for a project. Folks there are pretty conscientious and not partying like its 1999. Masks everywhere including the inside her office.

She was stuck in a hotel for two weeks upon arrival. And that's with a certified document from her company's doctor prior to leaving to China stating that she is clean.

Tested upon arrival and again prior to release from the hotel. NO contact with anyone including any cleaning staff within the hotel. (Ordered her meal and misc stuff online and delivered to her door.)

They seem to be quite serious with the whole thing considering that there have been little spikes since June.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Which is fine if the country had only one issue to consider (Covid) but sadly the world is more complicated than that.
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But my redcafe.net post isn't.

And in fact, worrying about the 10pm curfew is massively oversimplifying the problem.

This is Eureka park in Ashford

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There are a bunch of different industries here, including a Travelodge, and a Garden Centre but the big draw is definitely the Cineworld Cinema.

The Nandos, Pizza Hut, KFC, McDonalds, Frankie and Bennys, Beefeater etc all rely on the Cinema to draw in crowds. Some of those can survive without the cinema (Beef-Eater and Dobbies)

Lock Meadow, Maidstone is the same story. There is a Gym, a bowling alley, a Frankie and Bennys, a trampoline bouncy place, a bunch of other restaurants, etc. But once again the main draw is the cinema. Without the

The government hasn't ordered cinemas to close, but cinemas are closing anyway

All over the country, the live-entertainment industries, and associated industries are in crisis.

People are going to lose their job. People are going to re-train. That is the government's priority. Not pampering to those who won't socially distance.
 
Or let me put it another way;

I can't take my kids to see their grandparents because people are going out partying during a pandemic.

I don't have much sympathy.
 
sglowrider said:
The GF has been posted up in Tianjin for a couple of years for a project. Folks there are pretty conscientious and not partying like its 1999. Masks everywhere including the inside her office.

She was stuck in a hotel for two weeks upon arrival. And that's with a certified document from her company's doctor prior to leaving to China stating that she is clean.

Tested upon arrival and again prior to release from the hotel. NO contact with anyone including any cleaning staff within the hotel. (Ordered her meal and misc stuff online and delivered to her door.)

They seem to be quite serious with the whole thing considering that there have been little spikes since June.
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Then why are other countries not copying their behaviours? With flatlines like that
 
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/

Irish government poo-poo the idea of a longer Halloween break as a natural ‘circuit-breaker’

@Pogue Mahone

I think they’re missing a trick here, could have had a break/remote learning and been back in schools again for another 6 weeks before Christmas break where they could again have a longer break

this government seem to be pushing for schools to remain open no matter what
 
golden_blunder said:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/

Irish government poo-poo the idea of a longer Halloween break as a natural ‘circuit-breaker’

@Pogue Mahone

I think they’re missing a trick here, could have had a break/remote learning and been back in schools again for another 6 weeks before Christmas break where they could again have a longer break

this government seem to be pushing for schools to remain open no matter what
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Mr Collins said that "all the public health advice which is available shows quite clearly that schools are not an issue in terms of the transmission of Covid".
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We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.
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I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.
 
2cents said:
I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.
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Why lie though? If schools are a problem, come out and say it. There’s no upside for anyone to tell lies about the science here. It’s only going to bite them on the arse eventually. All these data will be in the public domain soon enough.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.
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I don’t like the manner he delivered the news, it irritated me. Why not say “at the moment there is no plans to close the schools as things stand, off course we continue to review the situation”.
Instead we got “no chance”.
it might come back to bite him in a week.
 
2cents said:
I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.
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You only have to look at what’s happening in universities in the U.K. I think from teenager up, it’s impossible for them not to spread it
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Why lie though? If schools are a problem, come out and say it. There’s no upside for anyone to tell lies about the science here. It’s only going to bite them on the arse eventually. All these data will be in the public domain soon enough.
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Economy.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Well we all benefit if the economy stays afloat. And if the virus gets completely out of hand then the economy gets fecked. There’s no upside to the government to let the virus run amok, while they tell lies about its spread.
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Easy to pretend it's not a problem, until it slaps them in the face like last time.

I still recall one of those gove advisors saying football grounds were low risk.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Why lie though? If schools are a problem, come out and say it. There’s no upside for anyone to tell lies about the science here. It’s only going to bite them on the arse eventually. All these data will be in the public domain soon enough.
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I dunno, perhaps they’re fully committed to the idea that keeping the schools open is a priority at almost any cost but feel they can’t sell this idea to the public.

But yeah, that’s probably reaching too much. I really hope they’re right on this.
 
2cents said:
I dunno, perhaps they’re fully committed to the idea that keeping the schools open is a priority at almost any cost but feel they can’t sell this idea to the public.

But yeah, that’s probably reaching too much. I really hope they’re right on this.
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I think there will be lots of internal disagreements and careful management with regards to what details of these disagreements get out. I just can’t imagine anyone flat out lying about what the data they’re looking at is showing.

Having said that, it’s also possible that the data isn’t giving them the full picture. In medicine it’s definitely possible to make bad decisions based on incomplete data. Unfortunately, incomplete data is sometimes all you have. Especially in a scenario that’s changing as rapidly as this epidemic right now.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think there will be lots of internal disagreements and careful management with regards to what details of these disagreements get out. I just can’t imagine anyone flat out lying about what the data they’re looking at is showing.

Having said that, it’s also possible that the data isn’t giving them the full picture. In medicine it’s definitely possible to make bad decisions based on incomplete data. Unfortunately, incomplete data is sometimes all you have. Especially in a scenario that’s changing as rapidly as this epidemic right now.
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Staggers me how little we still know about this virus with any degree of certainty.
 
2cents said:
Staggers me how little we still know about this virus with any degree of certainty.
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There’s so many factors we don’t know about possible cures, for example does burning Dominic Cummings and the current Cabinet cure it? Who can say with any degree of certainty until we try it??”
 
Schools will turn out to be the main driver in transmission throughout winter.
 


More government sources talking to media
Quarter to 11 with Johnson due to speak tomorrow, and there is still confusion, ambiguity and uncertainty
 
I wonder what Johnson will announce for London specifically. No one seems to give a shit here about covid.
 
DavidDeSchmikes said:
Johnson due to speak tomorrow, and there is still confusion, ambiguity and uncertainty
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I can’t say I’m surprised that there’s confusion and uncertainty, the government throughout this pandemic have leaked stories or headlines to the media before announcement.

Whether that is to take the edge off what’s being announced or to test/gauge the public reaction before their next announcement, it’s getting a bit tedious. If they want to put measures in, I don’t see the fascination in waiting over the weekend.
 
2cents said:
Staggers me how little we still know about this virus with any degree of certainty.
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There has been some learning taking place. While we see infection rates around the world climbing faster than hoped we are also seeing death rates are much lower than the beginning of the pandemic. There has been a lot learned and we are seeing that new knowledge in that area being put in place. I am a bit of an optimist and I hope this does signal that we are learning all the time and that there will be some level of stability becoming clear next year
 
Attila said:
I do believe it because I think we would have got news of a second lockdown in China. But instead I read about how they are opening up and doing fine. It appears to be the same in Taiwan which has a more 'western' goverment

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Because China’s people committed to social distancing and facemasks since the very beginning, accepted a draconian lockdown around Wuhan stopping virus getting into major cities, authorities have enforced a proper digital track and trace system. Look at Thailand and Malaysia for even more profound results.

The UK may think it has also done the above, but I’d estimate it’s been at 25% of the severity of implementation that China and other Asian countries.
 
Sarni said:
3,000 cases reported for yesterday, 75 deaths. It’s getting really really bad here.
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Been flicking through freesports channel on TV over here and they show Polish league regularly, stands look packed! :lol: Apparently 50% of capacity is allowed?
 
2cents said:
Staggers me how little we still know about this virus with any degree of certainty.
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I think we know a great deal albeit evolving as the pandemic matures. Certainky enough to do better than we have been doing. I think often the problem is that governments aren't prepared to take consistent hard decisions that are in line with the best current medical advice for economic reasons (which is of course not irrelevant) or political considerations (which should be). That combined with a lack of willingness to use the precaution principle to save lives.

The utter shambles of the UK government's response has made it far harder to get the UK people to cooperate due to the confusion they government have created and the feeling that the initial lockdown was squandered or (even worse) that it didn't work. Letting the sacrifice the British people made in the initial lockdown go to waste is the worst thing the government have done and that is quite a list to top.
 
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