SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Hound Dog]

Original plan was yes but they’ve tweaked the wording to give them an option to close. My money’s on a prolonged half term, with a very good chance the schools won’t reopen.

Until when?

 

[Wibble]

Doubt we’ll hear anything useful for another month or two. Although the one and only upside of the current surge is that it should mean we see results sooner. The more virus in the community the quicker they can see results.

This was interesting - a story about the Australian firm that is already manufacturing 2 of the main vaccine candidates.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...working-round-the-clock-to-produce-100m-doses

 

[Attila]

Why are the case numbers in China so low? How come they haven't had a second wave?

China Graph

UK Graph

Cant figure out how to embed it, says administrator error

 

[golden_blunder]

Until when?

Million dollar question. Nothing is confirmed, it’s just his opinion

 

[golden_blunder]

Why are the case numbers in China so low? How come they haven't had a second wave?

China Graph

UK Graph

Cant figure out how to embed it, says administrator error

You believe it?

 

[Attila]

You believe it?

I do believe it because I think we would have got news of a second lockdown in China. But instead I read about how they are opening up and doing fine. It appears to be the same in Taiwan which has a more 'western' goverment

China parties like it's 2019 as country moves on from coronavirus

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https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

People in China are shedding their face masks and partying again, with bars, nightclubs and beach venues across the country filling up after months of pandemic controls. Last weekend, hundreds of Beijing residents attended a music festival on the beachfront at Beidaihe — a location that also serves as the annual getaway for the Communist party leadership. To get into the venue, party-goers had to scan their government-designed app that tracks where they have visited, and have their temperatures taken. But once inside the sealed-off resort, they could throw off any thoughts of coronavirus. “Nobody was wearing masks. It was like we’d all entered a parallel universe and forgot the existence of the epidemic,” said Nancy Lee, 33, an art curator who was one of the festival-goers. “After suffocating at home for more than six months, it was time to loosen up.”


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https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

In the capital Beijing, bars and restaurants are becoming busy again. Revellers say they feel they have earned the “freedom to party” after months of strict social distancing from late January.

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https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

The mood in China is in stark contrast to much of the rest of the world, where partying has been put on hold because of the pandemic. In many European countries, bars and nightclubs have been blamed for spreading the virus and forced to close.

The return to revelry in China was made possible after local governments gradually relaxed their strong epidemic measures. For the past four months, there have been fewer than a hundred daily symptomatic cases in China, apart from a brief outbreak in Xinjiang province.

Cities across China have resumed socialising at different speeds. Beijing, the seat of government, had the most prolonged epidemic controls. But in many other big cities, such as Shanghai and Chengdu, normal life was barely interrupted.
Rest Spoilered

Spoiler

The reopening of venues will be welcomed by China’s embattled retail sector. Consumption has been slowly recovering from the depths of the lockdown in February. July retail sales in China were 1.1 per cent below the comparable month of 2019, according to the latest official figures, although UBS estimates that in August, sales returned to the previous year’s levels.

“From restrictions [on movement] and shop closures to no restrictions and shops opening, there’s [going] to be a big rebound,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS in Hong Kong.

But while many middle-class professionals are engaging in “revenge spending” after months of being unable to splash the cash, lower-income workers are still suffering. Economists say China’s economy is stuck in two-track growth, widening the wealth gap. The most conspicuous sign of the return to confidence in China was the giant pool party held last month in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak originated. Recommended ExplainerCoronavirus economic impact Pandemic crisis: Global economic recovery tracker As part of its economic stimulus package, the local government gave discounts for entry to the Maya Beach Water Park, which hosted an electronic music festival for more than 3,000 people. It was by far the biggest event the city had held since lockdown began in January. It was a release for the people of Wuhan, whose 11m residents were not allowed to leave the city and confined to their apartments for two-and-a-half months at the start of the outbreak. Those controls were later relaxed and confidence returned in June after the mass testing of residents turned up only 300 cases, all non-symptomatic. “We were surprised to see such a big, rowdy crowd,” said Luo Ling, 31, who along with his wife attended the pool party. “People around us were . . . having the time of their lives.” Having worn face masks all day, they removed them after arriving at the venue. “I guess there was no point wearing a mask anyway since we got drenched instantly from head to toe,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

 

[Wibble]

You believe it?

I think they have contained it well and continue far more restrictions than they are admitting.

If there is a second wave they will try to contain it before publicising that it is occurring.

 

[Wibble]

Two interesting article on Sweden's approach

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...trategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

 

[Wibble]

Does anyone have any idea about the overall % of people that had it any country? I know some studies have been done on Stockholm, New York, certain regions of Italy, but nothing nation-wide.

The reason why I am asking is that, with this number of recorded cases again, surely the herd immunity has at least a chance of being accomplished before the vaccine arrives?

Or if not, what is the way out? It has been seven fecking months and I feel no closer to a resolution than in March - this is still something that no one is talking about.

I read today that the worst hit cities like New York, Stockholm and places in the UK may have reached 15-20% and with the HIT likely to be 70-85% getting there without a vaccine would be very painful indeed.

Edit: just read that Stockholm is at about 12% and Sweden as a whole 5/6%

 

[berbatrick]

Two interesting article on Sweden's approach

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...trategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

the 1st one is damning

 

[golden_blunder]

Two interesting article on Sweden's approach

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...trategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

That first article is damning. Talk about hard headed and stubborn

 

[jymufc20]

Gets me every time.

 

[jymufc20]

Nothing on Hancock's latest scandal ?

'The drinks are on me but Public Health England are in charge of payment methodology so I will not be paying anything': Health Secretary Matt Hancock makes tasteless Covid test joke in Commons bar as he 'joined MPs flouting 10pm curfew'

I would of posted a link but it's the mail so I didn't bother.

 

[Wibble]

Big study in India shows that there’s only a 9% chance of catching it from someone in your household and 78% of people who catch it don’t infect anyone else. I’ve seen similar numbers from studies in other countries. However it gets passed on, it seems as though some people are a hell of a lot more infective than others. Either that or susceptibility is extremely variable.

Hard to work out what’s the most important factor but there’s been loads of super spreader events, so former more likely than latter.

Yet in places like AU and NZ where there are very few infections, and therefore tracing tends to be much better, there is very frequent infection between known contacts and family.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Why all the fuss about a potential second national lockdown? More and more areas are being locked down anyway, so we’re almost in a national lockdown in all but name anyway.

 

[rcoobc]

I still can't get my head around the 10pm pub closure thing. How did they think this was ever going to work? If you didn't want to close the hospitality sector down, which I can understand, then you had to ban people mixing in households outside of their support bubble for there to be any chance of making an impact. Just seemed like a no brainer to me. Closing a pub an hour earlier...I mean how can you dress that up in any way that explains how it would stop a virus spreading?

I keep trying to convince myself that whoever is making these decisions is informed and going purely off science/data, but then I remember that the likes of Boris, Gove, Mogg and eyetest man are definitely going to be wading their opinions in on any decisions being made, and I actually feel my heart sink. This lot were doing a great job of fecking up millions of people's lives before covid was even a thing.

.

I on the other hand don't understand what there is to not understand.

I would go further and suggest that pubs and bars should now stop serving alcohol after 8:30pm, although can stay open until 10pm. That does open up a lot of potential rule breaking (buying 10 points for the table at 8:30 for example, or just ignoring the rule altogether) but it should help more than it hurts.

People keep asking the question, where is the evidence that this helps? What data was this idea based off of.

But the truth is, we're all working a bit blind here. If the government are ignore advice from SAGE or not using data from track and trace, then that's deplorable. But we have to use common sense.

Alcohol reduces social inhibitions. We're trying to encourage social distancing.

What is not to understand.

 

[Heardy]

Original plan was yes but they’ve tweaked the wording to give them an option to close. My money’s on a prolonged half term, with a very good chance the schools won’t reopen.

Where does that leave us then? Schools cannot remain closed indefinitely.

Remote delivery until we have a vaccine?

 

[McGrathsipan]

Where does that leave us then? Schools cannot remain closed indefinitely.

Remote delivery until we have a vaccine?

In a proper cluster feck I think.
Schools remaining open is an absolute key thing and really should only be done as a last resort

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I on the other hand don't understand what there is to not understand.

I would go further and suggest that pubs and bars should now stop serving alcohol after 8:30pm, although can stay open until 10pm. That does open up a lot of potential rule breaking (buying 10 points for the table at 8:30 for example, or just ignoring the rule altogether) but it should help more than it hurts.

People keep asking the question, where is the evidence that this helps? What data was this idea based off of.

But the truth is, we're all working a bit blind here. If the government are ignore advice from SAGE or not using data from track and trace, then that's deplorable. But we have to use common sense.

Alcohol reduces social inhibitions. We're trying to encourage social distancing.

What is not to understand.

I was out last night and everyone was sitting at their own tables, etc - no problem.

Also, you're ignoring all the people employed in the pubs industry - with your proposals, that industry would collapse

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yet in places like AU and NZ where there are very few infections, and therefore tracing tends to be much better, there is very frequent infection between known contacts and family.

It’s almost certainly the most frequent. Stands to reason that you won’t have a better chance of catching covid than living with someone that’s infected. Doesn’t make the attack rate any higher though.

And the data I’m talking about is consistent with what we saw on cruise ships, which is one of the only scenarios that allowed 100% tracing and testing of all contacts. In the Diamond Princess the attack rate was consistently single digits.

 

[Wibble]

The “success” has been managing the virus in a calm manner whilst not having to resort to methods you’d associate with an authoritarian regime. I thought that much was obvious by now.
No-one anywhere is claiming they are a “success” across the board.
A democracy like Australia acting like a communist state yet having a death toll 34 times higher than their neighbour NZ certainly aint a success, so what really constitutes “success“ in a pandemic?

I missed this.

Communist state?

NZ locked down harder and earlier than us and more power to them.

Sweden has a death rate very nearly 17x higher than Australia. Thousands more dead in a country with less than half the population of Australia.

How does Sweden compare to NZ?

 

[Penna]

@sullydnl, that chart from the Irish government is very good. It's clear and explains what's what at each point in the restrictions. People understand something like that, they can stick it on the fridge and refer to it.

 

[rcoobc]

I was out last night and everyone was sitting at their own tables, etc - no problem.

Also, you're ignoring all the people employed in the pubs industry - with your proposals, that industry would collapse

I'm ignoring it in the same way that I'm ignoring everything in the world I didn't mention

It's a problem.

If the pandemic is going to last years (or somehow get worst and last years) then they need to shut these industries down and these people need to find new jobs.

If the pandemic is going to last months, then they should be supported

But thats not a unique problem for the entertainment industry

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I'm ignoring it in the same way that I'm ignoring everything in the world I didn't mention

It's a problem.

If the pandemic is going to last years (or somehow get worst and last years) then they need to shut these industries down and these people need to find new jobs.

If the pandemic is going to last months, then they should be supported

But thats not a unique problem for the entertainment industry

Which is fine if the country had only one issue to consider (Covid) but sadly the world is more complicated than that.

 

[sglowrider]

You believe it?

The GF has been posted up in Tianjin for a couple of years for a project. Folks there are pretty conscientious and not partying like its 1999. Masks everywhere including the inside her office.

She was stuck in a hotel for two weeks upon arrival. And that's with a certified document from her company's doctor prior to leaving to China stating that she is clean.

Tested upon arrival and again prior to release from the hotel. NO contact with anyone including any cleaning staff within the hotel. (Ordered her meal and misc stuff online and delivered to her door.)

They seem to be quite serious with the whole thing considering that there have been little spikes since June.

 

[rcoobc]

Which is fine if the country had only one issue to consider (Covid) but sadly the world is more complicated than that.

But my redcafe.net post isn't.

And in fact, worrying about the 10pm curfew is massively oversimplifying the problem.

This is Eureka park in Ashford

There are a bunch of different industries here, including a Travelodge, and a Garden Centre but the big draw is definitely the Cineworld Cinema.

The Nandos, Pizza Hut, KFC, McDonalds, Frankie and Bennys, Beefeater etc all rely on the Cinema to draw in crowds. Some of those can survive without the cinema (Beef-Eater and Dobbies)

Lock Meadow, Maidstone is the same story. There is a Gym, a bowling alley, a Frankie and Bennys, a trampoline bouncy place, a bunch of other restaurants, etc. But once again the main draw is the cinema. Without the

The government hasn't ordered cinemas to close, but cinemas are closing anyway

All over the country, the live-entertainment industries, and associated industries are in crisis.

People are going to lose their job. People are going to re-train. That is the government's priority. Not pampering to those who won't socially distance.

 

[rcoobc]

Or let me put it another way;

I can't take my kids to see their grandparents because people are going out partying during a pandemic.

I don't have much sympathy.

 

[golden_blunder]

The GF has been posted up in Tianjin for a couple of years for a project. Folks there are pretty conscientious and not partying like its 1999. Masks everywhere including the inside her office.

She was stuck in a hotel for two weeks upon arrival. And that's with a certified document from her company's doctor prior to leaving to China stating that she is clean.

Tested upon arrival and again prior to release from the hotel. NO contact with anyone including any cleaning staff within the hotel. (Ordered her meal and misc stuff online and delivered to her door.)

They seem to be quite serious with the whole thing considering that there have been little spikes since June.

Then why are other countries not copying their behaviours? With flatlines like that

 

[golden_blunder]

Or let me put it another way;

I can't take my kids to see their grandparents because people are going out partying during a pandemic.

I don't have much sympathy.

Totally with you

 

[sglowrider]

Then why are other countries not copying their behaviours? With flatlines like that

In some countries, they may not take it as seriously?

 

[F-Red]

UK figures - 65 deaths, 12.872 cases

 

[esmufc07]

Coronavirus: Liverpool faces 'tier 3' lockdown - pubs, bars and gyms expected to close
http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...pubs-bars-and-gyms-expected-to-close-12101965

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/

Irish government poo-poo the idea of a longer Halloween break as a natural ‘circuit-breaker’

@Pogue Mahone

I think they’re missing a trick here, could have had a break/remote learning and been back in schools again for another 6 weeks before Christmas break where they could again have a longer break

this government seem to be pushing for schools to remain open no matter what

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/

Irish government poo-poo the idea of a longer Halloween break as a natural ‘circuit-breaker’

@Pogue Mahone

I think they’re missing a trick here, could have had a break/remote learning and been back in schools again for another 6 weeks before Christmas break where they could again have a longer break

this government seem to be pushing for schools to remain open no matter what

Mr Collins said that "all the public health advice which is available shows quite clearly that schools are not an issue in terms of the transmission of Covid".

We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.

 

[2cents]

We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.

I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.

Why lie though? If schools are a problem, come out and say it. There’s no upside for anyone to tell lies about the science here. It’s only going to bite them on the arse eventually. All these data will be in the public domain soon enough.

 

[golden_blunder]

We have to remember that there’s tonnes of data that NPHET see which we don’t. I’m not a fan of jumping to conclusions without data, so if they’ve analysed all the available data and are comfortable with keeping schools open then that’s good enough for me.

I don’t like the manner he delivered the news, it irritated me. Why not say “at the moment there is no plans to close the schools as things stand, off course we continue to review the situation”.
Instead we got “no chance”.
it might come back to bite him in a week.

 

[golden_blunder]

I wonder if they’re being honest. I don’t understand how schools - especially secondary schools - could not be massive transmission zones, given what we all think we know about the virus.

You only have to look at what’s happening in universities in the U.K. I think from teenager up, it’s impossible for them not to spread it

 

[Stactix]

Why lie though? If schools are a problem, come out and say it. There’s no upside for anyone to tell lies about the science here. It’s only going to bite them on the arse eventually. All these data will be in the public domain soon enough.

Economy.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Economy.

Well we all benefit if the economy stays afloat. And if the virus gets completely out of hand then the economy gets fecked. There’s no upside to the government to let the virus run amok, while they tell lies about its spread.