To clarify, did the person die from the vaccine or of COVID, but was vaccinated?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
To clarify, did the person die from the vaccine or of COVID, but was vaccinated?
The person has died because of a suspected reaction to the vaccine. They didnt have covid.
A suspected reaction? Half an hour earlier you said it was confirmed. I don't know which it is but the two are totally different.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...myocarditis-rare-sideeffect-of-pfizer-vaccine
The reason I used the word "suspected". I was just trying to be sensible with my description. From the article. "The coroner still needs to rule on the case and the cause of death. The CV-ISMB believed the myocarditis was probably due to vaccination. The board also noted there were “medical issues occurring at the same time which may have influenced the outcome following vaccination”.
That’s not how you use ‘Endemic’. Which says a lot in itself.
Thanks and sorry to be narky. I'm not sure what the coroner can say really concerning an individual case. If 100 people get myocarditis annually in New Zealand anyway no one will ever know if this person would have been one of them or if they only got it because of vaccination. The stats make the latter more likely, but don't rule out the former at all. It really could be either one.
Considering the article is about risk it might be misleading not to mention one of it's main points though:
“The benefits of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 far outweigh the risks, with recent data from the United States showing a massive 25-fold reduction in the risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 in vaccinated individuals.”
On the risk part which is an important point here are some of our numbers I had mentioned a few post earlier.
"We have had 3 million people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine.
We have had in total 3464 cases of Covid and that has given us 26 deaths in total."
I've always been annoyed by the word endemic.
It's original meaning was 'found only in a certain area', as in Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. I suspect this was widely misunderstood so a second meaning came about, as in 'lots and lots of them', as an example Rats are endemic in Liverpool. Which they are of course, but they're found everywhere else as well.
Now some bastard has invented a third meaning, 'A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58302480
Which is what you meant I presume. I seem to be easily annoyed this morning, I'd probably best log off.
Ah right, I didn't see it was you wrote both. Well said.
I've always been annoyed by the word endemic.
It's original meaning was 'found only in a certain area', as in Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. I suspect this was widely misunderstood so a second meaning came about, as in 'lots and lots of them', as an example Rats are endemic in Liverpool. Which they are of course, but they're found everywhere else as well.
Now some bastard has invented a third meaning, 'A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58302480
Which is what you meant I presume. I seem to be easily annoyed this morning, I'd probably best log off.
I think the rats/kangaroos is about them having their feet (paws) under the table. They’re established, breeding and not going away. If I dump a bunch of kangaroos into a a field in Ireland that won’t make them endemic. Conversely the feral cats us colonial wankers brought to Aus/New Zealand took a while to become endemic.
Same applies to the virus. We can have an outbreak of Ebola in Irland but if we stamp it out completely it never becomes endemic. SARS-COV-2 is on the cusp of becoming endemic all over the world. Which really just means it’s here to stay.
Not in one meaning, saying penguins are endemic to the Antarctic would mean quite specifically that they are not found anywhere else.
And I know penguins get a bit further, but it was the best example I could think of quickly! Or I'm talking bollocks, who knows.
Likely so, but smallpox shows that a true global effort can make a difference. Obviously it is a different virus and social conditions are radically different, but I still believe it is achievable but very, very, very unlikely.
Edit: That is really poor sentence construction. Need coffee.
Kiwis being endemic to New Zealand being an example?
Annoyingly endemic has come to have two meanings that are close to contradictory. I have had analysts describe issues to me at work as endemic meaning "isolated exclusively and inherent in one area" and also "exists everywhere in an omnipresent and perpetual state". Both are technically correct but require clarification to gain comprehension.
So, describing Covid as endemic if it acheives a stable dynamic and presence is, I believe, correct if confusing given the other meaning.
I agree with your analysts! Charles Darwin would have too, possibly, I think that's where I got it from in the first place.
I don’t think those two meanings are necessarily different. Something can be endemic to a specific region or endemic in multiple regions, or endemic everywhere. The key point is that, as you said, it reaches a stable and dynamic presence. As opposed to being transient.
Smallpox was a one time vaccine, boom.. life immunity.
This is nothing like, I don’t think there’s a chance of ridding it from the face of the Earth, not even a tiny percentage of a chance.
Quite, I agree. The meanings are in principle the same in terms of stable and dynamic presence.
The issue is that it can be used to mean "in an isolated area" and "omnipresent". In the case of my analysts that I alluded to above that can be quite a critical distinction!
The meaning regarding Covid seems clear however. It will be endemic in the global human population.
The smallpox vaccine yielded persistent, low levels, of antibody for the lifetime of individuals. No reason that the current vaccinations can not, and are not, doing that. The issue arises in having such a massive pool of unvaccinated people compounded by the huge difference in viral mutations rates between RNA (COVID) and dsDNA viruses (smallpox). Add those together and you have a virus that can "outgrow" vaccinations. A true global vaccination effort coupled with rapid adjustment to create variant specific "boosters", which is only an option now because of mRNA technology, could do it. It won't because humans can't agree on anything these days, but it could work.
Mate, I posted earlier that over here we already have reached 70% on two doses.
In the last two months we dropped from 1st place in Covid deaths per million for 6-8 weeks on the trot to 1.5% of ICU beds with Covid cases. No lockdowns, we never had any, even at the height of it, just vaccination playing out.
We started vaccinating in March so obviously drew upon learnings/suspicions (e.g. no AZ for women under 50). Rather than turn the exceptions into negationist arguments, I'd focus on their value to progress vaccination more safely. I know if I were one of those rare death cases I'd find the latter more appealing.
That is awesome news and I am incredibly jealous.
Eh? We know a significant enough number of vaccinated people are still contracting Covid-19.
That's a huge difference from moving town to town, City to City, Country to Country knowing that each vaccine is a person who can no longer contract the disease, that's how we could hunt down smallpox to the last African villages. How on Earth do you see that working in this case?
They are, but at a reduced rate and they are much less infectious if they do get it. The more people who are vaccinated the harder it is for the virus to persist. Think of it like a toilet bowl with the water being the virus pool and the flush being vaccination. The available virus pool gets smaller and smaller until eventually it is negligible. Of course in my analogy we also have to throw in the 4 year old antivaxers who have decided to stuff a shirt into the toilet.
I think that scenario is about as likely as Brentford winning the Champions League next season.
We're talking 7.67 billion people here.
That is more likely than global eradication, that is why I said it would not happen, but was possible. The better analogy would be Brentford winning it this year.
The scenario could look like this:
-At some point we are going to have polyvalent mRNA vaccine that will protect against multiple variants. Based on the literature there seems to be homology in the areas of mutation for the variants, so we should be able to design a package that can be effective against almost all current and future S protein variants (within reason).
-If we could (
) get to a rapid 95% vaccination rate we could get the R0 to well below 1, which would lead to an eventual functional eradication.-Continued monitoring for variant breakthroughs and rapid, directed, boosters if needed.
Again, that is not going to happen, but it is possible.
-If we could (
95% of the planet? rapidly?
95% of the planet? rapidly?
Yep, hence the laughy thingy on my end.
Edit:
I mentioned this in the vaccine thread, but I could see us in 10 years at a place where vaccines could be produced in pharmacies in an hour or so. The vaccine itself is relatively simple as it is a basic transport media, the mRNA, and the carrier particle. For Moderna and Pfizer that carrier particle is, along with the mRNA, a self assembling lipid nanoparticle. Rapid mRNA production is not difficult from a biology/engineering perspective, so the drug companies could just ship the other components and the vaccines could be produced on site, eliminating the need for ultra low temp storage and transport.
Yeah I wasn't laughing at you, but with you.
Too many people live way too isolated for a rapid vaccination of 7.4 billion people, even worse when that vaccine needs to be kept cold. It's a theory full of "if" and "if" and "if", you'd need thousands of probable issues to just perfectly line up for it to work, and we're a World in which we can't even stop some cnut chopping down the Amazon.
It's as bizarre an idea as the "hard lockdown the entire World for 3 months and it'll be gone".
Thought so but you never know on this place
.When it comes to many of these issues it is frustrating as the solution is so clear in principal, but so unattainable because of humans doing stupid selfish human things.
Was in Liverpool for a stag over the weekend.
Everything just seemed back to normal.
Mental difference between there and NI
Everything just seemed back to normal.
Mental difference between there and NI
Unfortunately blanket red listed anyway being in South America, so no Cavani
Which is just stupid. No country should be on a red list as long as the US is not. I'm not complaining as it means we get Pulisic/Steffen/Sargeant/Horvath this window, and god forbid Germany ever red lists us before WCQ'sUnfortunately blanket red listed anyway being in South America, so no Cavani
....Ireland opening back up again slowly from Sept 6th (for example, indoor gigs/plays etc at 60% capacity for fully vaxxed). All going well most restrictions will be gone by Oct 22nd except mask wearing on public transport and in hospital settings.
Fingers crossed!
Fingers crossed!
Nicely timed with numbers dropping over last two days. Remains to be seen what effect the kids going back to school have. Thankfully we’ve vaccinated a good chunk (the majority?) of secondary schoolers.
I don't really get why they are doing everything else involving public transport and people being back in offices so close to the schools reopening and I'm pessisimtic as to whether the 22nd Oct will actually happen given the annual HSE shitshow that usually occurs around that time will surely be even worse than normal, but here's hoping!
My university has become a pretty interesting case study in lockdown vs vaccines or alpha vs delta:
(all data taken from: https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/)
Fall 2020: most classes online. Some lab classes in-person. Research students aren't full-time in lab. Most campus restaurants closed, others are pick-up only. Indoor masking, pretty strict. No outdoor groups. No vaccinations. Alpha variant.
Over 4.5 months, 240 cases (both those who tested positive and also 150 who were contact-traced).
Spring 2021: Same situation with classes, but research students have returned mostly. Same situation with campus restaurants as before, but indoor masking rules a little more relaxed if eating far apart from others, and eating is allowed in groups outdoors. Alpha variant, very few vaccinated at the start, a solid chunk vaccinated by the end.
Over 4 months, 935 cases (including 500 that were contact-traced). A big cluster of a few hundred cases was linked to an off-campus party.
Fall 2021: A supposed indoor mask mandate but also indoor eating allowed. All restaurants open. Many classes in-person. All research students back in their labs. 95% vaccination rate. Delta.
350 positives in 2 weeks (and that doesn't include contact-tracing I think).
Either delta is that much worse, or vaccinations are really poor on transmission, or lockdowns were the holy grail.
(all data taken from: https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/)
Fall 2020: most classes online. Some lab classes in-person. Research students aren't full-time in lab. Most campus restaurants closed, others are pick-up only. Indoor masking, pretty strict. No outdoor groups. No vaccinations. Alpha variant.
Over 4.5 months, 240 cases (both those who tested positive and also 150 who were contact-traced).
Spring 2021: Same situation with classes, but research students have returned mostly. Same situation with campus restaurants as before, but indoor masking rules a little more relaxed if eating far apart from others, and eating is allowed in groups outdoors. Alpha variant, very few vaccinated at the start, a solid chunk vaccinated by the end.
Over 4 months, 935 cases (including 500 that were contact-traced). A big cluster of a few hundred cases was linked to an off-campus party.
Fall 2021: A supposed indoor mask mandate but also indoor eating allowed. All restaurants open. Many classes in-person. All research students back in their labs. 95% vaccination rate. Delta.
350 positives in 2 weeks (and that doesn't include contact-tracing I think).
Either delta is that much worse, or vaccinations are really poor on transmission, or lockdowns were the holy grail.
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Or combination of a bit of everything and methodological quirks in study design (e.g. more routine testing) with non-adherence, too many variables etc. With delta circulating, those cases were out of over 15000 with a positivity rate of 1.59%, not sure how that tallies up with national/local rates
Also this is good news, even with majority being younger side
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article253851373.html
They’re testing the hell out of their students. No wonder they’re picking up a bunch of asymptomatic/very mild cases.
We must be getting close to a point where all this obsessive testing can start to wind down. With an endemic virus in a heavily vaccinated population there doesn’t seem to be a lot of sense in chasing down every single asymptomatic case. It’s expensive, disruptive and not very helpful.
We must be getting close to a point where all this obsessive testing can start to wind down. With an endemic virus in a heavily vaccinated population there doesn’t seem to be a lot of sense in chasing down every single asymptomatic case. It’s expensive, disruptive and not very helpful.
Presumably all positive lateral flow tests are followed by a PCR test which then means we are able to analyse the virus and keep a look out for potentially dangerous mutations?
You can screen for mutations by testing symptomatic cases only. If a mutation only ever causes asymptomatic illness then we can ignore it.