I can’t see this version of Jones beating him. It only takes one mistake.
This version of Jones lost to Santos and Reyes, both of whom have looked average in fights afterward. He isn’t the same Jones with all that dynamic offense that people remember.
This is power that has never been seen before in the sport too, so there is nothing to compare it to.
The only outlier is if Jones has more power at heavyweight. That’s obviously a big question and could have serious repercussions. Is he strong enough to take Ngannou down at will? Will he hit harder and give Ngannou pause for thought coming in?
If he doesn’t have any extra power, then Ngannou has nothing to fear by coming in close and all it takes is one hit. His power is insane.
On the other hand, as a few others have pointed out, he was starting to breathe heavily. If Jones can keep him working and maintain distance in exchanges and shoot for takedowns, if it gets into a 3rd and 4th round, it’s all Jones.
I doubt we'll see as much tension and nerves in N'Gannou again, personally. There was a lot of demons and psychological pressure to contend with in this rematch, not to mention actually processing that this was a title fight and something he wanted so badly to win. The adrenaline dump and the instinctive tensing of muscles, even in a calm state, is going to be as responsible for the breathing as his physical output, I would suspect.
Fighting Jones does not come with the burdens and weight of destiny like facing Stipe did, not only that, even if Jones can come up and genuinely contend, it'll be a systematic fight that, I would think gives N'Gannou more time to settle and take in a much more complex problem.
I think even if Jones is competitive and a threat at HW, he's going to be an annoying fly that needs a decision to win and that begs the question of whether he himself has the tank to go 25minutes carrying 40lb+ more than what he's used to bringing into championship rounds. Even if he initially starts with the pre-requisite strength and power, will he still have it beyond 15 minutes? The stamina issue looms large for Jones just as much as N'Gannou, imo. This isn't LHW and his optimal weight and familiarity since turning pro; it's a whole other world against men who will sleep him in the blink of an eye. The propositions aren't what we're accustomed to at LHW.
For me, there's so many more questions around Jones here than N'Gannou