We've got a long way to go before we can start expecting to finish above any of the top teams. We'll know a lot more come January, if we can win every remaining game in December we'll give ourselves a chance if we can pick up points against Spurs and Chelsea. December and January are more pivotal to our season than ever. If we can go on a run of beating West Ham, Hull, Norwich, Tottenham, Swansea and avoiding defeat to Chelsea I think we'd be in the top four come February. But again, it's all ifs and buts for now, it's up to the team and manager to get the job done.
One thing I hope we sort out is the form against the top teams, as I do expect us to start being more clinical and professional against the mid-lower table sides. We have to look at this as where the Champions League places will be obtained or pissed away:
Chelsea (H) - 0-0 Draw
Liverpool (A) - 1-0 Loss
Man City (A) - 4-1 Loss
Arsenal (H) - 1-0 Win
Tottenham (A) - 2-2 Draw
Everton (H) - 0-1 Loss
We'll have to 'put all of this right' to finish in the Top 4. By this, I mean turning the defeats into wins in the return fixture if we can. Maybe we can get away with draws at Chelsea and Arsenal depending on other results and if they're still above us at the time of playing, but I really think we'll have to be winning the others to get anywhere. Four wins and two draws from the next six against those teams would still be average for the season in the grand scheme of things, but it could be enough if we do the business elsewhere.
I've said it a few times already, but my expectation is that Manchester City will eventually pull away at the top and finish on around 85-86 points. They're going to win at least 17 Home matches which is already 51 Points, they may win them all, they may lose 1-2, or draw them, but let's say they get 52 Home points. Their away form has been poor, but you have to expect that they can get 33-34 Points out of the 57 available even if they lose another.
Arsenal, I can't make my mind up on and we'll probably have to wait to see what kind of balls they have when they play Chelsea at the weekend, which will also tell us a lot about Chelsea as well. A draw would probably suit Chelsea more as it's an away game, and it might be what sends Arsenal slipping down the table for a while when they've not won in four and could have a few big players missing. Still, these teams will probably finish on around 80 points.
Liverpool and Everton keep surprising me, but I do think they'll hit bad spells where we catch up with them and that final Champions League place will be close between the three of us. I don't think Spurs have much of a chance now and will probably finish the lowest out of all the potential Top 4 contenders in question. Liverpool and Everton will get over 70 points for my money, probably closer to 75. We've got 66 points left to fight for, with our maximum total being 91 if we somehow won them all. We'll be looking at needing 17/22 games to be wins to have a realistic shout of Top 4? That's my expectation anyway. Probably only losing one or two more and picking up some draws too. 80 points is a realistic target still in my book.
It'l be interesting to see how it unfolds, so let's see if we can put a run of results together for the first time in the season.
