Top Four Race 2018/19

Djemba-Djemba

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On the contrary despite how well they played they still lost, that can be pretty dispiriting. Like Liverpool at OT yesterday depends on how they look at it
Yeah losing a cup final is always horrible of course. But most seemed to think they'd be destroyed yesterday, I actually predicted a Chelsea win because they seem to always win trophies in crisis, but they put in a good spirited performance that suggested the players were still playing for the manager.

The keeper incident took all that away though, so not only did they lose but their manager was publically humiliated.
 

FootballHQ

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Still there though. Our injury list evens it up
True but Chelsea were 11 points ahead of Man. United just before xmas so they've blown a huge lead and have lost all the momentum in last two months. I think they'll draw v Spurs on Weds and lose at Old Trafford and Anfield (maybe a point there if Liverpool don't get their front 3 going again) so going to be tough for them and they also drop points in very winnable games (0-0 at home to Southampton and losing home to Leicester not so long ago).
 

Mogget

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I know, but apparently, I'm having a mental breakdown, so all those games could actually be just made up! ;)
Why are you still pretending you're being unfairly criticised :lol:

You said Arsenal aren't even in the race for top 4. That's a ludicrous statement. If you said you don't think Arsenal would finish in the top 4, then fair enough. I'd even agree with you, as I reckon United are favourites for 4th with Arsenal least likely.
 

Red4Ever

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True but Chelsea were 11 points ahead of Man. United just before xmas so they've blown a huge lead and have lost all the momentum in last two months. I think they'll draw v Spurs on Weds and lose at Old Trafford and Anfield (maybe a point there if Liverpool don't get their front 3 going again) so going to be tough for them and they also drop points in very winnable games (0-0 at home to Southampton and losing home to Leicester not so long ago).

Hopefully they will gee themselves up for Anfield at least!
 

Leftback99

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Dafuq? Let's compare Chelsea and Arsenal's record against them shall we? Chelsea - 1 draw; 1 unplayed. Arsenal - 1 draw; 1 loss. Hardly a fecking hammer blow, is it?
Previous results are irrelevant. If yesterday's game was the last day of the season and we needed a win to clinch 4th a draw wouldn't be a good result just because Chelsea and Arsenal did the same.

We needed to create a gap in 4th in my opinion because Chelsea and Arsenal have easier run ins. If we win the next 2 it will look better but they are difficult games.
 

Redlyn

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Our run-in is brutal. I think we have two "easy" games left after Southampton and they are the last 2 games of the season.
Rest are tough. All the mid-table teams fighting for 7th place have the potential to be banana skins like everton, watford, wolves, west ham nevermind top six rivals.
 

Havak

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We're going to have to do a bit of a Spurs and grind out these next two games against Crystal Palace and Southampton with a depleted squad. If we can get through those two and have some players back, it's entirely in our hands with games against Arsenal and Chelsea. I am very confident that we can match their results over the rest of the season, so getting the points in those games might be the difference. It's definitely going to be rather close. The games up to the international break are crucial.
 

Bilbo

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We are still favourites IMO. Chelsea and Arsenal always have a loss in them and being in the Europe League will also be a big factor
 

charlenefan

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Our run-in is brutal. I think we have two "easy" games left after Southampton and they are the last 2 games of the season.
Rest are tough. All the mid-table teams fighting for 7th place have the potential to be banana skins like everton, watford, wolves, west ham nevermind top six rivals.
It's the mid table teams you want to be playing at this stage of the season as they have nothing to play for. I dont image any of the sides being particularly arsed about being the best of the rest. The sides you dont want to play are those fighting relegation or those going for the title/top 4
 

cyberman

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Previous results are irrelevant. If yesterday's game was the last day of the season and we needed a win to clinch 4th a draw wouldn't be a good result just because Chelsea and Arsenal did the same.

We needed to create a gap in 4th in my opinion because Chelsea and Arsenal have easier run ins. If we win the next 2 it will look better but they are difficult games.
Why are they? Honest question by the way. I see injuries being a concern but our starting 11 will still be miles ahead of them.
It's almost as if we tell ourselves they'll be tough games based off of nerves or confirmation bias.
It was the big games that Ole would struggle against cause we beat sides we should now beaten sides we should is tough because of reason I suppose?
 

Leftback99

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Why are they? Honest question by the way. I see injuries being a concern but our starting 11 will still be miles ahead of them.
It's almost as if we tell ourselves they'll be tough games based off of nerves or confirmation bias.
It was the big games that Ole would struggle against cause we beat sides we should now beaten sides we should is tough because of reason I suppose?
Bookies currently give us around a 30% chance of winning both games (Palace and Southampton). We might do it but it's not going to be easy. Our starting XI isn't 'miles' ahead of Palace with the likes of McTominay and Pereira likely to start.

Your posts are always overly optimistic (as admittedly mine may be pessimistic). A few weeks ago you were arguing with me that we would overhaul Spurs in 3rd because they wouldn't win that many home games and that home games are no easier than away (they are 3/3 at home since).
 

BlueHaze

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I actually never thought I'd say this at the end of February but I think Arsenal are going to finish 4th. They have much easier fixtures remaining. We are also in the most crucial stage of the season and we are racking up injury after injury on key players. I don't even think we'll win against Palace with the injuries we have and Zaha always raises his game against us.

What Ole has done so far is simply amazing and I really hate to be a negative bastard but if our key players are not back soon I just cannot see us making 4th. And even though Mourinho was sacked mid season I'm still absolutely fuming the decision wasn't taken sooner. We would have made top 4 easy had our ownership not decided to throw away half a season for nothing...
 

cyberman

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Bookies currently give us around a 30% chance of winning both games (Palace and Southampton). We might do it but it's not going to be easy. Our starting XI isn't 'miles' ahead of Palace with the likes of McTominay and Pereira likely to start.

Your posts are always overly optimistic (as admittedly mine may be pessimistic). A few weeks ago you were arguing with me that we would overhaul Spurs in 3rd because they wouldn't win that many home games and that home games are no easier than away (they are 3/3 at home since).
No, i argued their light home fixtures isnt a big factor because it evens out with having a grueling away fixture list. You would want that the other way around since that means you have already played the majority of your toughest league games and have the easier home reversals to come.
This is like the 5th time I've tried to explain this.
who has the toughest fixture list here.

Team A who has the top 5 at home with 5 scrubs away
Team B who has top 5 away and 5 scrubs at home.

Thats why Spurs went out in FA cup in an away tie. Lost in semi in away leg after taking a lead to that fixture. Won 3 league games at home then lose their next tough away fixture. Not exactly proving me wrong here.
Now Spurs have a tough game away v Chelsea that could see them within 5 of us and are playing a NLD straight after that.


That 30 percent is how bookies win their money though and why you take one game at a time. That's not just a slogan. You take one game at a time and we'll be big favourites against both sides for a simple reason.
Palace currently sit 18TH in the home record table. They've won 3 games there all season. Southampton have 4 more away points than Cardiff.
You're simply saying they're tough based on nothing at all. Plucked out of thin air.
 

Indnyc

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Remaining Fixtures

United

Crystal Palace (A)
Southampton
Arsenal (A)
Watford
Wolves (A)
West Ham
Everton (A)
Man City
Chelsea
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff

Arsenal

Bournemouth
Spurs (A)
United
Newcastle
Everton (A)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace
Leicester (A)
Brighton
Burnley (A)
Wolves (A)*

Chelsea

Spurs
Fulham (A)
Wolves
Everton (A)
Cardiff (A)
West Ham
Liverpool (A)
Burnley
United (A)
Watford
Leicster (A)
Brighton*

*Fixture dates to be decided.

We have to play Chelsea and Arsenal.. It is pretty much in our hands
 

RedDevilRoshi

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I actually never thought I'd say this at the end of February but I think Arsenal are going to finish 4th. They have much easier fixtures remaining. We are also in the most crucial stage of the season and we are racking up injury after injury on key players. I don't even think we'll win against Palace with the injuries we have and Zaha always raises his game against us.

What Ole has done so far is simply amazing and I really hate to be a negative bastard but if our key players are not back soon I just cannot see us making 4th. And even though Mourinho was sacked mid season I'm still absolutely fuming the decision wasn't taken sooner. We would have made top 4 easy had our ownership not decided to throw away half a season for nothing...
Arsenal are Arsenal at the end of the day. Nothing is a given with them. You know fine well, they will f*** up somewhere down the line. Plus they are also still in the Europa League.

We will do it!
 

Leftback99

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No, i argued their light home fixtures isnt a big factor because it evens out with having a grueling away fixture list. You would want that the other way around since that means you have already played the majority of your toughest league games and have the easier home reversals to come.
This is like the 5th time I've tried to explain this.
who has the toughest fixture list here.

Team A who has the top 5 at home with 5 scrubs away
Team B who has top 5 away and 5 scrubs at home.

Thats why Spurs went out in FA cup in an away tie. Lost in semi in away leg after taking a lead to that fixture. Won 3 league games at home then lose their next tough away fixture. Not exactly proving me wrong here.
Now Spurs have a tough game away v Chelsea that could see them within 5 of us and are playing a NLD straight after that.


That 30 percent is how bookies win their money though and why you take one game at a time. That's not just a slogan. You take one game at a time and we'll be big favourites against both sides for a simple reason.
Palace currently sit 18TH in the home record table. They've won 3 games there all season. Southampton have 4 more away points than Cardiff.
You're simply saying they're tough based on nothing at all. Plucked out of thin air.
You are changing the balance of the fixtures there to suit your argument. 5 home 5 away is completely different to 9 home, 6 away as Spurs had it at the time. That they lost away to Burnley (who we couldn't beat at home) only strengthens my point.

Also you were saying their home record was poor at the time. They now have a better home record than us 3 home games later.

Against Palace on Wednesday the bookies have us as likely to win as Liverpool were on Sunday. Who did you expect to win that game?
 

cyberman

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You are changing the balance of the fixtures there to suit your argument. 5 home 5 away is completely different to 9 home, 6 away as Spurs had it at the time. That they lost away to Burnley (who we couldn't beat at home) only strengthens my point.

Also you were saying their home record was poor at the time. They now have a better home record than us 3 home games later.

Against Palace on Wednesday the bookies have us as likely to win as Liverpool were on Sunday. Who did you expect to win that game?
Im not changing anything, I made an extreme example since the premise could not understood each time i explained it.
Just wait and see and you'll see how it plays out. There's no point in going over this anymore. f you have an easy home fixture list then your away list must be a killer since you can't play sides three times. You'll be here explaining why they dropped points away to Burnley, Chelsea, City and Liverpool as if they don't count. You haven't even tried to explain why they lost those away games inbetween but we both know why you didn't since away games is harder then home ties.
I'd rather be playing the top sides at home but that's just me. You must be extremely confident about going away to those grounds if you consider having Watford at home v a trip to Anfield down as an advantage. Your very mindset calls the reverse an optimum scenario which is fecking nuts.
They have Southampton away while you're saying Southampton at home is a tough game for us? See what I'm saying about scaring yourself?
You keep explaining why bookies win money, you're not proving anything quoting odds to me. Whats the odds of beating Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs away while being 2-0 down to Burnley at home with 5 minutes left?
You're scaring yourself while trying to add logic to your fear as if it's well sourced.
 

Leftback99

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Im not changing anything, I made an extreme example since the premise could not understood each time i explained it.
Just wait and see and you'll see how it plays out. There's no point in going over this anymore. f you have an easy home fixture list then your away list must be a killer since you can't play sides three times. You'll be here explaining why they dropped points away to Burnley, Chelsea, City and Liverpool as if they don't count. You haven't even tried to explain why they lost those away games inbetween but we both know why you didn't since away games is harder then home ties.
I'd rather be playing the top sides at home but that's just me. You must be extremely confident about going away to those grounds if you consider having Watford at home v a trip to Anfield down as an advantage. Your very mindset calls the reverse an optimum scenario which is fecking nuts.
They have Southampton away while you're saying Southampton at home is a tough game for us? See what I'm saying about scaring yourself?
You keep explaining why bookies win money, you're not proving anything quoting odds to me. Whats the odds of beating Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs away while being 2-0 down to Burnley at home with 5 minutes left?
You're scaring yourself while trying to add logic to your fear as if it's well sourced.
I'm completely lost now.
 

cyberman

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I'm completely lost now.
I see that.
Offer Spurs the chance to swap around Chelsea, Liverpool and City away for three of their easiest home fixtures and what do you think they'll say? Then explain why having easier home games v killer away days is an advantage,
 

Leftback99

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I see that.
Offer Spurs the chance to swap around Chelsea, Liverpool and City away for three of their easiest home fixtures and what do you think they'll say? Then explain why having easier home games v killer away days is an advantage,
A reminder of where this started (January 20th) which you didn't see as any sort of advantage for Spurs.
15 games left, 9 of them at home with a 7 (basically 8 with GD) point advantage.
 

cyberman

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A reminder of where this started (January 20th) which you didn't see as any sort of advantage for Spurs.
Nope. You claimed Spurs had a huge advantage because Arsenal was their last "Hard' home game while we had to play Liverpool, Chelsea and City etc at home.
It was nonsense then and nonsense now. They're going into a wince inducing away fixture list which will put ridiculous pressure on their home fixtures.
We'll have to wait and see.
 
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Leftback99

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Nope. You claimed Spurs had a huge advantage because Arsenal was their last "Hard' home game while we had to play Liverpool, Chelsea and City etc at home.
It was nonsense then and nonsense now. They're going into a wince inducing away fixture list which will put ridiculous pressure on their home fixtures.
We'll have to wait and see.
We'll have to agree to disagree. At the time they had 9 home games left and 6 away. Your words were "Its really not a positive in any way", and now "away games is harder then home ties". So you are now basically agreeing with my original point but saying i'm talking nonsense.
 

cyberman

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We'll have to agree to disagree. At the time they had 9 home games left and 6 away. Your words were "Its really not a positive in any way", and now "away games is harder then home ties". So you are now basically agreeing with my original point but saying i'm talking nonsense.
No buddy. Home games were being quoted as an advantage because they were easier than their rivals which makes no sense. I'm not agreeing with a word of it. You want your harder games to be at home if you have choice. Going away to Anfield, Etihad and The Bridge will never be an advantage in any capacity.
Spurs would switch their home and away ties in an instant imo. No questions asked.
 

Leftback99

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No buddy. Home games were being quoted as an advantage because they were easier than their rivals which makes no sense. I'm not agreeing with a word of it. You want your harder games to be at home if you have choice. Going away to Anfield, Etihad and The Bridge will never be an advantage in any capacity.
Spurs would switch their home and away ties in an instant imo. No questions asked.
And still you're ignoring the main point - 9 home games vs 6 away.
 

Leftback99

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They were always in contention,people were more focused on catching Chelsea when they were fourth and we hadnt even passed out Arsenal at that stage.
I had written them off myself. Our game at the Emirates could be decisive.
 

Sandikan

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I actually never thought I'd say this at the end of February but I think Arsenal are going to finish 4th. They have much easier fixtures remaining. We are also in the most crucial stage of the season and we are racking up injury after injury on key players. I don't even think we'll win against Palace with the injuries we have and Zaha always raises his game against us.

What Ole has done so far is simply amazing and I really hate to be a negative bastard but if our key players are not back soon I just cannot see us making 4th. And even though Mourinho was sacked mid season I'm still absolutely fuming the decision wasn't taken sooner. We would have made top 4 easy had our ownership not decided to throw away half a season for nothing...
Has he ever played that well against us?
 

Rish Sawhney

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If we win all our remaining games we finish 4th. Simple as that. If we don't finish 4th it'll be because we didn't do our job. As opposed to needing severe collapses from above us when Ole took over.
 

cyberman

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And still you're ignoring the main point - 9 home games vs 6 away.
Thats not an advanatge! Would you swap the two groups of fixtures around? Its an obvious yes and why its nonsense.
Explain why going away to those monster sides is an advantage. Please. All you're saying is 9v6 without context or explanation.
 

Leftback99

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Thats not an advanatge! Would you swap the two groups of fixtures around? Its an obvious yes and why its nonsense.
Explain why going away to those monster sides is an advantage. Please. All you're saying is 9v6 without context or explanation.
Personally I would rather have 3 extra home games every time, particularly if they are against the weaker sides who barely take points away from home.
 

cyberman

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Personally I would rather have 3 extra home games every time, particularly if they are against the weaker sides who barely take points away from home.
They dont drop points v bottom sides home or away (Burnley aaccepted)
Up to you but that's crazy. You're almost guaranteeing three loses v a negligible advantage against bottom sides that they beat home and away (Burnley accepted)
I'd understand that more home game mentality if their home record wasn't so poor to begin with. 5th best or something? They're the best away side in the country for feck sake yet you want more home games?
I'll leave it at that but it's insane to me.
 

SqueakyWeasel

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Why are you still pretending you're being unfairly criticised :lol:

You said Arsenal aren't even in the race for top 4. That's a ludicrous statement. If you said you don't think Arsenal would finish in the top 4, then fair enough. I'd even agree with you, as I reckon United are favourites for 4th with Arsenal least likely.
EDITED POST: I re-read my original post and saw that it would do nothing to draw a line under things so have edited it in the hope that this matter can be finally dropped.

I meant exactly that and if you read the whole thread you'd know it too.

My quote from the thread:
"I merely said that Arsenal do not worry me personally as being one of the teams challenging (which they obviously are currently) … even from the heady heights they reached in the table after yesterdays game I think the games they have upcoming and the mental state of their team, the uncertainty about their ambitions and their continued participation in the EL will be too much for them come May."
You have either chosen to disregard this, or you saw one comment out of context of the whole thing and jumped on it. Therefore in an effort to stop this mind-numbing playground spat, I'll just bring you up to date:

In case you missed it: You'll see me back here in May, if I'm wrong, apologising to @awop but until then I'm done with this!
 
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ThatsGreat

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The only confirmed members of the top four are Liverpool and Man City. The two other spots are up for grabs. Spurs are very lucky to be where they are with plenty of last minute goals, they should regress back to the mean.
 

Keanes Magic Hat

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Given our injuries these two games against Palace and Southampton have become very big, if Ole can get us 6 points we are flying for top 4. Palace will be very tough
 

Keanes Magic Hat

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The only confirmed members of the top four are Liverpool and Man City. The two other spots are up for grabs. Spurs are very lucky to be where they are with plenty of last minute goals, they should regress back to the mean.
Agree have scrapped by in a few, massive week for Spurs also with the games they have.
 

charlenefan

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It's not inconceivable for Spurs to find themselves in some trouble, they've got by far the hardest run in what with Chelsea away tomorrow, then Arsenal at home and then both Liverpool and City away.
 

roonster09

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It's not inconceivable for Spurs to find themselves in some trouble, they've got by far the hardest run in what with Chelsea away tomorrow, then Arsenal at home and then both Liverpool and City away.
Yeah, lot can change just in a week for them. They play Arsenal and Chelsea this week. Decent chance they might end up with 1 or 2 points from 2 games.
 

FootballHQ

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It's not inconceivable for Spurs to find themselves in some trouble, they've got by far the hardest run in what with Chelsea away tomorrow, then Arsenal at home and then both Liverpool and City away.
Just about got enough points on the board already for me to be o.k. I've got them getting a point at Chelsea and beating Arsenal as they tend to do at home nowadays so short lived slump again.
 

awop

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Arsenal-United at the Emirates is going to be huge !

I would love it if we both got into top 4 at the expanse of Spurs and Chelsea. They would lose Hazard, Willian, Sarri (?) and keep a hated Jorginho.
While Spurs would lose some money, hopefully Eriksen, Alderwereild and Pochettino. :devil: