Venezuela – socialist paradise on the verge of collapse

Adisa

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PedroMendez

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forget about the currency shenanigans. Almost 2,5 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2014/15. Colombia harbours more than a million refugees from Venezuela. Sadly, we are approaching the point where the acceptance of Venezuela's neighbours is dwindling to allow more refugees to enter their countries. Thats to some extend understandable, but nonetheless terrible for the people fleeing this madness. There are more and more reports about stricter passport controls and other measures to stop new refugees to enter the countries. Iif this situation continues - and it actually might - anyone who can leave will try to do so and the over two million refugees might be just the beginning of a lot more to come.
Venezuela essentially stopped producing anything and their oil production is in free fall (similar to levels of mid/end 40s....); so their ability to import basic goods is moving towards zero.
 

maniak

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Such sad images coming from the boarder. People's lives are being destroyed in a country which was doing prey well just some years ago. On portuguese TV they were just showing that the main hospital in the capital doesn't have water. Unbelievable. Many portuguese immigrants in Venezuela are coming back with stories of a country collapsing little by little.
 

utdalltheway

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They need to bring in 10 or 12 people that know how to govern properly and let them run the place. The current shower are failing miserably. Such a shame that a country with the resources it has is going through this.
Can’t they let some Norwegians in? to quote Trump.
 

Pagh Wraith

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They need to bring in 10 or 12 people that know how to govern properly and let them run the place. The current shower are failing miserably. Such a shame that a country with the resources it has is going through this.
Can’t they let some Norwegians in? to quote Trump.
What they need is free markets and less government.
 

PedroMendez

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Javi

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Is there a chance that Maduro gets overthrown by domestic opposition?
 

carvajal

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Is there a chance that Maduro gets overthrown by domestic opposition?
I do not think there is opposition at this point. I am not up to date lately but some time ago they wanted to ban Capriles from being elected.
Even on the assumption that they win elections (which seems to me impossible, there would be fraud) they would challenge it, create a new assembly / constitution / etc and take refuge in the army.
 

4bars

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How close to the ‘verge of collapse’ is the country, actually?
It collapsed already

Venezuela has a bit more than 30 million population and calculations estimates from 2.3 to 4 million immigrated already (half of them malnourished) and many more planning every day

When I was there on 2013, 1 USD = 4-5 Bolivar fuerte officially. I was going to the black market and get them for 27-28. A few weeks ago, at the black market was +1 million, and everyday was growing maybe 100.000. My friend went for a dental procedure and they gave him the price real time and told them that if in the time the black market exchange changed, they would ask for more payment (cash could be 2-3 times more expensive).

He is leaving the country next month to join his father, a university teacher and leaving his girlfriend that can stay because her father earns in dollars.

If you refer when the government will be overthrown, it will depend when a coup will be successful, already been tried a few times.
 

calodo2003

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It collapsed already

Venezuela has a bit more than 30 million population and calculations estimates from 2.3 to 4 million immigrated already (half of them malnourished) and many more planning every day

When I was there on 2013, 1 USD = 4-5 Bolivar fuerte officially. I was going to the black market and get them for 27-28. A few weeks ago, at the black market was +1 million, and everyday was growing maybe 100.000. My friend went for a dental procedure and they gave him the price real time and told them that if in the time the black market exchange changed, they would ask for more payment (cash could be 2-3 times more expensive).

He is leaving the country next month to join his father, a university teacher and leaving his girlfriend that can stay because her father earns in dollars.

If you refer when the government will be overthrown, it will depend when a coup will be successful, already been tried a few times.
Who are the coup participants? Ex-military, ex-government, farmers, laborers, political enemies? Any group that could actually stand a chance in executing a successful coup? If that did happen, who would be waiting in the wings to rule?
 

PedroMendez

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Is there a chance that Maduro gets overthrown by domestic opposition?
Who are the coup participants? Ex-military, ex-government, farmers, laborers, political enemies? Any group that could actually stand a chance in executing a successful coup? If that did happen, who would be waiting in the wings to rule?
regular political opposition, that is not Chavista: No. They are weak, fragmented, quarreling and never inspired enough support. They couldn't even agree on a common electoral strategy, when elections were to some degree meaningful. Whenever they got dangerous to the regime, they were harassed and put in jail. They are certainly not worse than Maduro. Thats an insane thing to say. That said, they are also not great. Some of them are posh upper-class guys, who don't speak the language of the people and who struggle to connect with them. Many of them are the leftover of politics pre-Chavez, which doesn't necessarily make them particularly popular outside their own narrow base. They are not some kind of right-wing paramilitaries. Most of them are social-democrats, centrists or liberals (incompetent and/or corrupt ones, but thats just normal in LA). Chavismo monopolised mass-based politics and never allowed any new potential rival to become popular.
When people started to resist on the streets, the regimes shot them. We saw that and nobody has the stomach or organisational capabilities to go down this path again. The HRW report, that I previously posted, also highlights just how ruthless the regime is, when it comes to the suppressing any opposition. The people who are suffering most, are now fleeing the country in millions and that alleviates pressure on the regime.

Their is always the possibility, that people from within Chavismo could try to replace Maduro with someone who shows a bit more pragmatism. It never happened and I don't expect it now, but who knows. I don't think anyone understands the inner circles of power sufficiently to say much about this with any degree of certainty.
 

calodo2003

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regular political opposition, that is not Chavista: No. They are weak, fragmented, quarreling and never inspired enough support. They couldn't even agree on a common electoral strategy, when elections were to some degree meaningful. Whenever they got dangerous to the regime, they were harassed and put in jail. They are certainly not worse than Maduro. Thats an insane thing to say. That said, they are also not great. Some of them are posh upper-class guys, who don't speak the language of the people and who struggle to connect with them. Many of them are the leftover of politics pre-Chavez, which doesn't necessarily make them particularly popular outside their own narrow base. They are not some kind of right-wing paramilitaries. Most of them are social-democrats, centrists or liberals (incompetent and/or corrupt ones, but thats just normal in LA). Chavismo monopolised mass-based politics and never allowed any new potential rival to become popular.
When people started to resist on the streets, the regimes shot them. We saw that and nobody has the stomach or organisational capabilities to go down this path again. The HRW report, that I previously posted, also highlights just how ruthless the regime is, when it comes to the suppressing any opposition. The people who are suffering most, are now fleeing the country in millions and that alleviates pressure on the regime.

Their is always the possibility, that people from within Chavismo could try to replace Maduro with someone who shows a bit more pragmatism. It never happened and I don't expect it now, but who knows. I don't think anyone understands the inner circles of power sufficiently to say much about this with any degree of certainty.
Thanks, appreciate that reply.
 

Adisa

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Extreme Racism. The opposition have burnt people a live on the streets, one man was burned alive because of his dark skin e.g. dark skin = chavista.
Didn't know that. I'm not too familiar with their politics. Isn't there more than one opposition party and is politics divided along racial lines?
 

4bars

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Didn't know that. I'm not too familiar with their politics. Isn't there more than one opposition party and is politics divided along racial lines?
My perception as a foreigner, is that in Latinamerica, white skin, are from european heritage, so they inherited the wealth and the status for centuries. Also the perception as "superior"

In the other hand, dark skin, beging ex-slaves blacks brought from aborad or ex-slaves (or not) american native, inherited their poverty and their "low" status.

In american history, right wing parties had white skinned at the top of the party and they had policies favouring them. In the left wing, they had about everything but lately more native and their policies were ideologically to favour (IN THEORY) the impoverished that usually are darkskinned.

So yes, there is racism in politics in america. But of course in my opinion
 

Sweet Square

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Didn't know that. I'm not too familiar with their politics. Isn't there more than one opposition party and is politics divided along racial lines?
From my limited knowledge the opposition is all over the places and made up of different parts of society but not strictly on racial lines although it's clearly there in some form considering the murders.
 

Adisa

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The Americans are really going to put their noses in this mess.
 

carvajal

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Demonstrations across the country against Maduro, and waiting for Trump to recognize Guaidó as president.
Last week there were a few soldiers in revolt, but it came to nothing.
 
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Abizzz

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One guy was elected and the other guy said "look me, I'm the captain now" so it's a bit rich for the second guy to claim hes fighting for democracy
Yeah but does anyone really honestly believe those were fair elections?

If there was a hypothetical coup against Trump that would bring about an end to Gerrymandering, billions in corporate campaign financing, facebook and bring about proportional representation would you really be against it on the grounds that Trump had less voters than Hilary?
 

Eboue

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Yeah but does anyone really honestly believe those were fair elections?

If there was a hypothetical coup against Trump that would bring about an end to Gerrymandering, billions in corporate campaign financing, facebook and bring about proportional representation would you really be against it on the grounds that Trump had less voters than Hilary?
Depends on if two fascist leaders of foreign countries were part of the coup.
 

Abizzz

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Depends on if two fascist leaders of foreign countries were part of the coup.
So you'd side with Trump against Trudeau (+ additional fascist of your choice)?

C'mon, you're constantly banging on for the need for people to do things to actually change stuff (with which I absolutely agree). It's in plain sight that whatever Maduro is doing isn't working for Venezuela, and it's the poor who suffer the worst. Lets not meet their attempt to change something with cynicism ?
 

Eboue

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So you'd side with Trump against Trudeau (+ additional fascist of your choice)?

C'mon, you're constantly banging on for the need for people to do things to actually change stuff (with which I absolutely agree). It's in plain sight that whatever Maduro is doing isn't working for Venezuela, and it's the poor who suffer the worst. Lets not meet their attempt to change something with scorn?
I was referring to Trump and Bolsonaro.

Look, I dont know enough about Venezuela to really comment on whether Maduro is good or bad or whatever. But I do know enough about American foreign policy to know our interventions are generally a Bad Thing. And even more so, the hypocrisy of crowing about democracy while supporting a coup is galling. I dont want to hear anyone complain about Russian election interference unless they are also condemning this.
 

carvajal

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Maduro breaks relationships with USA and ask the embassy to leave the country in 3 days