Westminster Politics

Buster15

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I work in elections, I run them for my local authority. The amount of electoral fraud in elections is non existent. There are various safeguards in place to prevent it already. It's clear this legislation is to make even more difficult for certain people (majority who are Labour voters) to vote. When turnouts for the majority of elections bar Parliamentary are already poor, this will make them worse. Additionally the same bill allows people who don't live in the country but were born here to vote in any elections, whereas there was a 15 year rule before. The majority of who would be Tory voters.
Great post and thanks for the information.
 

DOTA

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Thats pretty much what May did

My gut feel is that unless the Grey report exonerates him that will be the trigger point for sufficient letters to the 1922

For the confidence vote I think if he has mislead parliament you will see his support from the cabinet melt away very quickly as they all look to go down the route the PM assured me personally he had not mislead parliament and that has been shown not to be true

If that happens then I think he will say that having got brexit done and stewarded the country through covid its time for him to spend more time with his family and he will stay in charge whilst the conservative party selects the new leader
I'm not really sure what to expect from Grey. I feel the only thing we know about her is she fundamentally believes that the public should not know what goes on behind the scenes, so I'd expect where she feels she can exclude bits or water them down, without personal risk, she will. She's also presumably about to retire, so I don't know what personal risk she could suffer.

It may be the case there it's barely possible, and certainly not defensible, to not to find against him, though, I don't know.
 

Jippy

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Thats pretty much what May did

My gut feel is that unless the Grey report exonerates him that will be the trigger point for sufficient letters to the 1922

For the confidence vote I think if he has mislead parliament you will see his support from the cabinet melt away very quickly as they all look to go down the route the PM assured me personally he had not mislead parliament and that has been shown not to be true

If that happens then I think he will say that having got brexit done and stewarded the country through covid its time for him to spend more time with his family and he will stay in charge whilst the conservative party selects the new leader
There's no way the Gray report will tip more Tories into sending letters. Given even the pro-Boris Sun has said he's been telling potential rebel MPs he'll regain control of the party after Gray backs him, you know the report is going to be a fudge.

No way he relies on it, banging on about it repeatedly, if there's more than a 0.1% chance it will be damning.
 

Mart1974

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I'm not really sure what to expect from Grey. I feel the only thing we know about her is she fundamentally believes that the public should not know what goes on behind the scenes, so I'd expect where she feels she can exclude bits or water them down, without personal risk, she will. She's also presumably about to retire, so I don't know what personal risk she could suffer.

It may be the case there it's barely possible, and certainly not defensible, to not to find against him, though, I don't know.
Given this is not an independent inquiry and Grey works for Boris and has no real power, I expect a bland "drinking culture" response and Boris will crow about being exonerated and getting on with the important job. He will fire a few senior civil servants and this will be a sad foot note.
 

Smores

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I'm not really sure what to expect from Grey. I feel the only thing we know about her is she fundamentally believes that the public should not know what goes on behind the scenes, so I'd expect where she feels she can exclude bits or water them down, without personal risk, she will. She's also presumably about to retire, so I don't know what personal risk she could suffer.

It may be the case there it's barely possible, and certainly not defensible, to not to find against him, though, I don't know.
She's about to retire? Bribes galore behind the scenes then. I'll be shocked if she doesn't suddenly come into some advisory director role at a Tory linked firm where she gets 'paid' for nothing.
 

sun_tzu

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She's about to retire? Bribes galore behind the scenes then. I'll be shocked if she doesn't suddenly come into some advisory director role at a Tory linked firm where she gets 'paid' for nothing.
senior civil servant.... think she will have her eyes on a title and a seat at the lords...

I'm sure Rishi will oblige
 

Fluctuation0161

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I work in elections, I run them for my local authority. The amount of electoral fraud in elections is non existent. There are various safeguards in place to prevent it already. It's clear this legislation is to make even more difficult for certain people (majority who are Labour voters) to vote. When turnouts for the majority of elections bar Parliamentary are already poor, this will make them worse. Additionally the same bill allows people who don't live in the country but were born here to vote in any elections, whereas there was a 15 year rule before. The majority of who would be Tory voters.
Thanks for sharing. Makes sense.
 

Smores

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senior civil servant.... think she will have her eyes on a title and a seat at the lords...

I'm sure Rishi will oblige
Probably but you have to actually turn up to be paid, much to some of the lords amazement.
 

Kentonio

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Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?
I still think early February. There's too many knives out for him now for him to survive. I think the only thing that could save him would be a massive swing back to the Tories in the polls over the next week, and I don't think that's at all likely.

Tory MPs are shitting themselves over the Labour lead, and once that party get panicky they're ruthless with their leaders.
 

TwoSheds

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Next year he'll go I reckon. There'll be a little deal cooked up with this sham report.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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The obvious flaw is in Tony Blair. And that Blair has made it much harder for a future Labour government because of his actions. E.g. the Iraq war, going against a 1 million person protest. As a key example. The fact he brought in tuition fees against his manifesto as another.

People lost faith in Labour as an alternative after Blair because they enacted Tory like policies.
Blairs 3 actions are easily trumped by more damaging Tory Policies.

For the Iraq war see Brexit, the Afghanistan exit, supplying Saudi with Arms to annihilate Yemen. For Tuition Fees see Brexit again, Pension Triple Lock, and the cherry atop the shit flavoured sponge : let’s celebrate people drowning in The Channel.

There are some really great studies and commentaries on the Blair years. He liked the fame quite a bit and was easy to dislike… but the data for most social metrics improving, everywhere, is very compelling. He moved too far to the middle when he saw the £ signs but even from there he improved outcomes for people that needed help.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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We receive 250,000 people a year. They come to work. They make building houses easier. Not harder.

The only reason the Tories don’t solve the housing crisis is that the entire ethos of the party is founded on being landlords. They need banks to tell a nurse she can’t afford a £750 mortgage so they’re forced to pay £1000 a month in rent.

Poor people buy houses for rich people in this country. Immigration is divorced from the problems with housing stock. The shortage is not a bug. It’s a feature.
If the UK population was growing by 250'000 people a year because of domestic birth rates no one would have a problem with the idea that it would be a factor likely to exacerbate a housing crisis.

There are many factors in the supply shortfall as there are in the demand increase. The growing population is obviously one of them.
[/QUOTE]

One factor. Now many. Not building fast enough. That’s it.

Also : 250,000 people does not matter. It’s such a tiny number against 65 Million.

Landlords have no social value and are oppressive.
 

TwoSheds

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If the UK population was growing by 250'000 people a year because of domestic birth rates no one would have a problem with the idea that it would be a factor likely to exacerbate a housing crisis.

There are many factors in the supply shortfall as there are in the demand increase. The growing population is obviously one of them.
One factor. Now many. Not building fast enough. That’s it.

Also : 250,000 people does not matter. It’s such a tiny number against 65 Million.

Landlords have no social value and are oppressive.
[/QUOTE]

That's not true. For example, if you wanted to go and get a job in another city you'd be very glad of somebody having a property to rent you.

Everything in balance - I think the problem is that the rent is more expensive than the mortgage not that the rent exists at all. Landlords effectively have their cake and eat it with the current system in most cases - they earn enough income to pay off their mortgage AND make a profit on top usually. Given your mortgage payments are earning you a share of a valuable asset, it shouldn't be that you make a profit as well. If anything it ought to cost you money to rent out a mortgaged property.
 

Buster15

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Blairs 3 actions are easily trumped by more damaging Tory Policies.

For the Iraq war see Brexit, the Afghanistan exit, supplying Saudi with Arms to annihilate Yemen. For Tuition Fees see Brexit again, Pension Triple Lock, and the cherry atop the shit flavoured sponge : let’s celebrate people drowning in The Channel.

There are some really great studies and commentaries on the Blair years. He liked the fame quite a bit and was easy to dislike… but the data for most social metrics improving, everywhere, is very compelling. He moved too far to the middle when he saw the £ signs but even from there he improved outcomes for people that needed help.
He and new labour did indeed improve so many things.
Hospital waiting times, which have never been equalled or achieved even close.
Hospital rebuilding which was desparately needed.
School improvements.
And for me, the most important, kept the Tories out of power for 3 elections.
And of course, Gordon Brown was a very good chancellor.

Yes of course Iraq was a negative. But people need to clearly understand the situation at that time and not just look back with hindsight.
 

Maticmaker

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No way he relies on it, banging on about it repeatedly, if there's more than a 0.1% chance it will be damning.
Unless it is Boris's 'oven ready' exit plan?

For quite a while now Boris has been spotted in the vicinity of the 'cookie jar', examining it, taking the lid off, lifting it up...etc. finally he's been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Nothing he says or does from now on will be believed, even by his own supporters.... time to go!

Being outed by Grey, is akin to taking the whole responsibility on himself, "....it is a far far better thing ...etc." in his eyes 'martyrdom' he can retire to the backbenches, or even stand down as an MP leave Westminster behind and make a shit load of money selling book after book, starting with 'My Time in Office'... wouldn't be surprised if the first ten chapters all about the Success of Brexit are already in draft form...!
 

golden_blunder

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Unless it is Boris's 'oven ready' exit plan?

For quite a while now Boris has been spotted in the vicinity of the 'cookie jar', examining it, taking the lid off, lifting it up...etc. finally he's been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Nothing he says or does from now on will be believed, even by his own supporters.... time to go!

Being outed by Grey, is akin to taking the whole responsibility on himself, "....it is a far far better thing ...etc." in his eyes 'martyrdom' he can retire to the backbenches, or even stand down as an MP leave Westminster behind and make a shit load of money selling book after book, starting with 'My Time in Office'... wouldn't be surprised if the first ten chapters all about the Success of Brexit are already in draft form...!
The best thing the U.K. could do would be to confine this clown to the dustbin and not experiment again. I mean not just now but after his service as well
unfortunately we all know that the range of MPs now with a brain and common sense are few and far between
 

Maticmaker

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unfortunately we all know that the range of MPs now with a brain and common sense are few and far between
That is true... be careful what you wish for, who in the Tory hierarchy will 'seize' the day/take up the baton' from Boris...?

As Frank Spencer might have said.."Oooh Betty...I think we've done a whoopsee"
 
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Fingeredmouse

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That is true... be careful what you wish for, who in the Tory hierarchy will 'cease the day/take up the baton' from Boris...?

As Frank Spencer might have said.."Oooh Betty...I think we've done a whoopsee"
I imagine that not even the Tories will put an end to the rotation of the Earth.
 

Fingeredmouse

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He and new labour did indeed improve so many things.
Hospital waiting times, which have never been equalled or achieved even close.
Hospital rebuilding which was desparately needed.
School improvements.
And for me, the most important, kept the Tories out of power for 3 elections.
And of course, Gordon Brown was a very good chancellor.

Yes of course Iraq was a negative. But people need to clearly understand the situation at that time and not just look back with hindsight.
Clearly Blair did some good (and some bad) and was better than the Tories preceding and following his and Brown's Governments but the Iraq situation requires no hindsight. At the time it was clearly wrong and many, many of us took to the street to demonstrate this. Do you not recall?
 

Buster15

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What exactly was the situation at the time which makes Blair's Iraq War more understandable?
As you may remember, there was lots of discussion at the time as to whether it was legal or not.
And Saddam Hussein was hardly a saint was he.
A close friend of mine was in the military and actually went to Iraq and told me about what was happening there.
I don't expect others to think differently. But it was, in my opinion better that Blair moderated Bush W actions.
 

Buster15

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Clearly Blair did some good (and some bad) and was better than the Tories preceding and following his and Brown's Governments but the Iraq situation requires no hindsight. At the time it was clearly wrong and many, many of us took to the street to demonstrate this. Do you not recall?
Sure I recall. But it was a matter of opinion. And mine was different than yours.
Nevertheless, I can readily understand why many were against it.
 

Fingeredmouse

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Sure I recall. But it was a matter of opinion. And mine was different than yours.
Nevertheless, I can readily understand why many were against it.
...and those who were against it were at the time. Not with the benefit of hindsight as you claimed which was my point.
 

FireballXL5

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Now wait for the rabid press and media campaign highlighting Islamophobia within the Tory party...

 

sun_tzu

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Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?
There is an argument to be made that the strategic move is to keep him in place till May.

The local elections will probably be a bit of a disaster whoever is in charge for the conservatives so let him carry the can for that and then get rid?

That said there will be an awful lot of local councillors and candidates putting a lot if pressure on their mp to act swiftly and give then the best chance they can get in May

Gut feel is that if the report reveals new parties or that Johnson deliberately misled cabinet and parliament then I think it very likley he goes within 48 hours or I think the letters will go in

As to if he would survive I would say that my impression is that he isn't particularly liked by a lot of factions.

The erg see him as too socially Liberal and now brexit is done he's served his purpose.

The May Wing of the party still hate him for his maneuvering to get her out

The Cameron/ Osborne wing hate him for joining leave in the referendum

The red wall mps see him as a liability

And if he has mislead cabinet I think all the senior cabinet mps and their closest allies won't want to publicly defend him

So bad report I can see him realistically going soon

If the report provides enough cover he might limp on till may but I struggle to see him staying beyond there unless there is a massive upset and they do well at the polls