Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?
There is an argument to be made that the strategic move is to keep him in place till May.
The local elections will probably be a bit of a disaster whoever is in charge for the conservatives so let him carry the can for that and then get rid?
That said there will be an awful lot of local councillors and candidates putting a lot if pressure on their mp to act swiftly and give then the best chance they can get in May
Gut feel is that if the report reveals new parties or that Johnson deliberately misled cabinet and parliament then I think it very likley he goes within 48 hours or I think the letters will go in
As to if he would survive I would say that my impression is that he isn't particularly liked by a lot of factions.
The erg see him as too socially Liberal and now brexit is done he's served his purpose.
The May Wing of the party still hate him for his maneuvering to get her out
The Cameron/ Osborne wing hate him for joining leave in the referendum
The red wall mps see him as a liability
And if he has mislead cabinet I think all the senior cabinet mps and their closest allies won't want to publicly defend him
So bad report I can see him realistically going soon
If the report provides enough cover he might limp on till may but I struggle to see him staying beyond there unless there is a massive upset and they do well at the polls