Is there a chance this VONC backfires and the Tory troops rally round? So close, yet so far..
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
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I think the Tory MPs rallying around is exactly what they'll be looking for....
Yeah my question was why is it a waste of time.
Labour cannot lose this vote. If they win and Boris is out (despite 80 majority) then that is a huge result and the end of Boris. He can’t use the next 2 months to do any more damage.
If Johnson wins the vote, the Tory party are shown up for who they are and going into the next election “supported Boris despite everything” becomes a hell of a campaign hit. They’re already at 28% in the polls, continuing to support Johnson after these last few weeks and all the resignations would be an incredibly bad move.
Maybe to humiliate them but they have no integrity anyway. When the Tory party is so fractured, why give them a chance to to rally together. Whoever the next Tory leader is ,they will be hopeless and won't have the rallying ability of Johnson.
If parliament is in recess from the end of next week until the 5th September when a new leader will be announced, other than giving some of his mates peerages he's not going to do much. The whole point in the Tories eyes of replacing Johnson is to ensure they don't lose the next election.
Starmer completely c*cked up Brexit - he could be going for the double.
The public don't get a say. What I'm saying is, having supposedly played the long game, Starmer seems to be going in for the kill at the wrong time. First and foremost the Tories don't want to lose the next election, whoever their leader is. Get Johnson out and then go for it.
Think its an easy win for Labour really, without any downside.
They win the vote and Johnson goes, can't do any more damage and they'll be able to say we forced him out.
They lose the vote and they can constantly reference the fact the Tory party voted him out and then voted to keep him in. It will be particularly difficult for the leadership candidates as they'll either have to vote in no confidence, which means they're going to struggle a bit more to pick up his wing of the party for the leadership campaign, or they don't, in which case it can be thrown back in their face in the future.
Its a move with literally no downside. Even if on the surface the Tory party 'rally together' for this one vote, they'll continue to rip each other apart immediately afterwards.
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feck me some people need being forcibly ejected from the planet in a one-way balloon.It’s not really going for the kill though is it? Johnson is already dead. He’s stepping down on his terms in September.
What Starmer is doing now is using a tool at his disposal to show the Tory party for the hypocrites that they are. After weeks of resignations and public condemnations, they will shrug their shoulders and continue to prop him up.
Every chance.. it is (IMO) stupendously in error to ask for VONC now. Johnson has all but gone*, the infighting for his successor will tear the Tories even more asunder. OK they might win an Election now if the VONC carries, but anyone who believes the Tories will vote themselves out of office because they are all decent jolly good chaps/chapesses is living in cloud cuckoo land. ( It could be the first mistake of significance that Starmer has made so far)
(* Notice Johnson isn't backing any of the candidates... just in case after winning the VONC, he can say "it was all a mistake, as you were" !)
If the VONC does carry I will eat my hat (if I had one like Paddy Ashdown)
I completely see your point but this is Johnson. He's the central figure and I would ensure he's well and truly gone first.
Johnson was dead. If he can find a way to wriggle out of this he will. Here's his chance.
Isn’t that all the better for Labour?
Exactly
I suppose they don't need to 'plan to lose', just don't 'plan to win' ?
Quite. Pointless risk imo.Every chance.. it is (IMO) stupendously in error to ask for VONC now. Johnson has all but gone*, the infighting for his successor will tear the Tories even more asunder. OK they might win an Election now if the VONC carries, but anyone who believes the Tories will vote themselves out of office because they are all decent jolly good chaps/chapesses is living in cloud cuckoo land. ( It could be the first mistake of significance that Starmer has made so far)
(* Notice Johnson isn't backing any of the candidates... just in case after winning the VONC, he can say "it was all a mistake, as you were" !)
If the VONC does carry I will eat my hat (if I had one like Paddy Ashdown)
You don't call a VONC for a Government with a majority to win it. You call it to put all their MPs on record as defending the indefensible. Blair did something similar to Major's Government in 95 or 96 when they were kicking lumps out of each other on Europe.
Agreed...perhaps its Starmer's attempt to show he can be a 'risk taker'? (His last attempt, threatening to resign over beer gate, wasn't really a risk given his background and knowledge of what will fly and what wont!)
If this was 1995 or 2005 or 2015 even I'd agree - but this is now with Johnson, they've been defending the indefensible for years. Once Johnson's out of the way the Tories will rip themselves apart anyway.
What's the actual risk if Labour lose the vote though?
Maybe there isn't but with Johnson anything is possible. He manages to lie and manipulate people to do all kinds of things. Don't see the point of taking a risk.
Won't their past voting be on record anyway?
Gives the Tories a chance to get their 'second wind', to stop and think... the 'headiness' of sidelining Boris was making them do lots of silly things, like suggesting tax cuts!The VONC will need them all to hold their noses and vote with the government and give the candidates a chance to think again... who knows, Boris is 'brassed-necked' enough to claim a victory and that in the Churchill spirit "he will soldier on... and both sides, do your worst!!
Not in the same way, as a VONC will be covered by the media differently (as the main news item) and Labour will get a prominent place in that to push its message. It will only be the second VONC in 28 years, after all.
Would actually be hilarious if Johnson somehow managed to stay on and would be an absolute slam dunk Labour win next GE if he managed to do so.
The optics of that would be beyond appalling for the party. The man literally cannot make a full government at the moment.
The optics of that would be beyond appalling for the party. The man literally cannot make a full government at the moment.
Watching this Sunak speech. He must be the least inspiring leader since... well, Theresa.
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Voting to remove Johnson
Then suggesting he leaves in a meeting
Then voting against the VONC
Would be hilarious and covered infinitely more, as front page media, compared to the fact that they previously voted against NI increase or fox hunting.
If Johnson were to then take that as a mandate and they were forced to undertake yet another VONC themselves, would be incredible.
The optics are not at all equivalent.
Whats is that message, right now?
Yesterday Starmer was caught on camera getting a little tongue-tied about future Labour intentions... just hope he's thought this through, otherwise it could be a double whammy for Labour. Tories survive and he isn't able to say anything about the future, only about what a cock up the Tories have made... but guess what Sir Keir, we already know that!
What the country wants is some good ideas, not hundreds of them just a few good ones that sound sensible and seem fair, even if some time away, emergency action to get us out of the current bind, then a move to better things... but don't overplay your hand...please!
The prospective leadership candidates are already ripping into each other trying to win.
None of them have the ability to rally the troops and con the people like Johnson.
So whoever else does become leader will struggle to lead such a fractured party to win the next GE.
It is a fun idea.
If as a Tory leadership candidate, you want Johnson's wing of supporters you can't vote for the no confidence motion if any of the other candidates say they will vote against it.( true test of faith and all that). If you are looking to collect the anti Boris vote, voting against that motion of no confidence is going to be hard to explain.
If the govt falls? Does a stand in candidate have to be picked and how is that decided? more internal arguments for the Tories. It would at least upset the Tory plan.
Keeps the Tories troubles in the headlines and even if they all vote against the motion, then its an election windfall as the "they are all the same argument" is given credence and Johnson's legacy of shite is pinned to the future PM.
Only down side is the playing politics card but that is the opposition's job and if you are clever you use the air time to defend against the charge, deflecting back to how corrupt they all are and they shouldn't be in power for another second. How can we trust him to remain in power for weeks and weeks more? is a fair question.
If as a Tory leadership candidate, you want Johnson's wing of supporters you can't vote for the no confidence motion if any of the other candidates say they will vote against it.( true test of faith and all that). If you are looking to collect the anti Boris vote, voting against that motion of no confidence is going to be hard to explain.
If the govt falls? Does a stand in candidate have to be picked and how is that decided? more internal arguments for the Tories. It would at least upset the Tory plan.
Keeps the Tories troubles in the headlines and even if they all vote against the motion, then its an election windfall as the "they are all the same argument" is given credence and Johnson's legacy of shite is pinned to the future PM.
Only down side is the playing politics card but that is the opposition's job and if you are clever you use the air time to defend against the charge, deflecting back to how corrupt they all are and they shouldn't be in power for another second. How can we trust him to remain in power for weeks and weeks more? is a fair question.
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It’s this week or not at all. It’s looking like the Tories will have between 5 and 15 leadership hopefuls who pass the threshold of support.
To force all of those people - at least half the government I’d imagine - who support a variety of candidates across the whole spectrum of Tory facism, into also saying they back Boris is pretty nuclear.
What would Rees Mogg and Dorries do? They’re supporting Truss but also back Boris? Or they wouldn’t. Undermines Truss. Or Boris. Or just honesty and self respect.
They’re backed into a corner. Sure, many would just abstain, but they all get shown to be as a viper nest of wannabe nazis again.
I’d take it to be optics focused rather than outcome. Throws another load of kindling on a pretty well established fire. P1sses people off. Makes Ministers try to fight two fires at once.
Also shows that Labour (again) suggested the right thing. Because in 1-5 weeks time they’ll be able to point at all the cnuts who wanted to be leader, including the 2 ‘best’ and say “Look at all this shit Boris is doing. Instead of doing what was best for the country, you elected to put your own interests first”. Because that man will do some shady shit. Guaranteed. They will be wedded to it.
Labour totally correct calling a VONC - that scenario laid out where Johnson uses the fact he wins the VONC due to the Tories putting party over country as proof he still has mandate to lead and withdraws his resignation would be proper amusing!
I am not just saying this for this Labour Party, but the only message that matters - this Government is failing, and a change is needed. That's the essential message behind all VONCs. That's what Thatcher did in 1979, and her policies followed concretely in the GE campaign that followed.
Exactly this. The Tory's backed him in a no confidence vote a fortnight ago. They all then came out in abundance last week resigning and saying they have no confidence in him and that he should resign immediatley.
Now if they vote against Labours no confidence vote it just shows their hypocrisy and that their main priority is to grip onto power above all else.
Vote for the no confidence vote and it could result in a GE.
Vote against it and you're showed up as a hypocrite and it can be used as ammunition against the Tory's.
I keep misreading your name as Thatcher's Man. Sorry about that.
Under normal circumstances I'd agree. I think the Tories will have four or five candidates that may have sufficient support to progress. Very few of the prominent Tory figures have any integrity whatsoever. Number one priority for me would be to ensure the head (Johnson) is cut off. Unless Labour really mess up, they will win the next GE anyway.
The same folk saying that the VONC is a risk or an error would be the same ones saying the opposition isn't opposing. It's the right call currently, and no doubt gives further ammunition for Labour later down the line at the local level.