Don't think so.
Edit: But then again... Looking at his followers, you might well be right.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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Edit: But then again... Looking at his followers, you might well be right.
Tory lead cut to 6 points according to The Guardy.
Well, Either ComRes or Survation are going to be getting less business this time next week
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These polls have gone all over the place last few days.
UK shouldn't be that difficult to poll if done with a robust methodology and sample but this Labour momentum is making it tough it seems.
UK shouldn't be that difficult to poll if done with a robust methodology and sample but this Labour momentum is making it tough it seems.
Okay, this would make me think the sample's very duff
EDIT - Okay by the looks of it this should actually be "heard about the QT", rather than watched. Still feels high but more believable.
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EDIT - Okay by the looks of it this should actually be "heard about the QT", rather than watched. Still feels high but more believable.
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So, basically, every 'influencer' in the country needs to get their registered to vote fans to get to the polls next week.
DUP are barn burners not king makers. They are subservient right wingers and would gladly lick the boots of the Tories and get them back into government if they could.DUP vs Sinn Fein as the king makers
I hope we can get the Tories out but hopefully without a coalition.
@Ubik Do you know if Survation have been one of the more kinder polls to Labour this election ?
I think it's Yougov that's consistently given Labour more of a chance.
Survation have been pretty favourable too I think - saw a graphic somewhere, nothing like Yougov though.
Even if polls were out - you would expect the same swing movement to some extent. These latest two are completely opposite....
Even if polls were out - you would expect the same swing movement to some extent. These latest two are completely opposite....
They've been...variable. This is the Mail on Sunday (online) one, had a +11 at the beginning of the campaign when the Tories were getting 20+ leads with everyone else, then when other pollsters had closed it to around 15 points, they had a +12, then this is the next in the series.
My feeling is that their panel is more politically aware than it should be and is accounting for the big swing, but a feeling is all it is.
Meanwhile, ORB has an increased Tory lead of 9 (from 6)
Dan Hodges is getting a fair amount of mockery for saying they'd all be herding.
Ah cheers.
Thanks. And yeah I've see this as well, poor fecker is never right.They've been...variable. This is the Mail on Sunday (online) one, had a +11 at the beginning of the campaign when the Tories were getting 20+ leads with everyone else, then when other pollsters had closed it to around 15 points, they had a +12, then this is the next in the series.
My feeling is that their panel is more politically aware than it should be and is accounting for the big swing, but a feeling is all it is.
Meanwhile, ORB has an increased Tory lead of 9 (from 6)
Dan Hodges is getting a fair amount of mockery for saying they'd all be herding.
Still a long way to go. And the polls traditionally underestimate the conservatives, sometimes substantially
But if I were a conservative I would be very worried for one reason - May leads on security and Brexit, Corbyn on basically everything else.
When people get to the ballot box and decide who is going to make their lives better the issues May leads on are the abstract 'perhaps she would be better for the country' not the personal 'this will make things better for me and my family'. If we are going to get a shock on Thursday this could be a key ingredient
But if I were a conservative I would be very worried for one reason - May leads on security and Brexit, Corbyn on basically everything else.
When people get to the ballot box and decide who is going to make their lives better the issues May leads on are the abstract 'perhaps she would be better for the country' not the personal 'this will make things better for me and my family'. If we are going to get a shock on Thursday this could be a key ingredient
This is why @Cheesy must vote for Labour. Need them to get as many seats as possible.
If not Labour, wish the Greens take some seats off the Tories in the South.
YouGov +4, ICM +11...
Same story we've seen of late - youth turnout like 2015 = Tory majority of 70+ is likely; if as high as they're reporting themselves = squeaker.
Same story we've seen of late - youth turnout like 2015 = Tory majority of 70+ is likely; if as high as they're reporting themselves = squeaker.
If you vote Labour in Scotland there is like a 90% chance you are helping the Tories.
Two camps emerging?
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and the problem with judging youth turnout is it's different people
e.g. 18-24s now is a ~33% different group of people than it was in 2015.
Latest YouGov trackers:
NHS - Lab +16
Immigration - Con +11
Law and Order - Con +15
Education - Lab +12
Tax - Con +2
Unemployment - Con +2
Economy - Con +16
Housing - Lab +13
Brexit - Con +19
Defence and security - Con +20
PM - Con +13
But they've also historically overestimated how likely they are to vote, as well. It's the same in almost every election of late.
Maybe it'll be different this time. I hope so.
Oh shit there's a pro Corbyn demonstration happening just down the road. IT'S ON!
What constituency are you in?
LOL! Apparently the Tories are leafletting Merseyside with newspaper quotes criticising Corbyn - from the S*n!
Oxford East. Greens will probably come in a distant second to Labour
edit: Partly because it's a very left leaning constituency, partly because it's Bernie Sanders brother running for the Greens.
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I didn't think they could outdo advertising with a newspaper in Barnsley in this campaign. Boy was I wrong!
Based on a gathering of family and friends tonight, where the defining negatives for Corbyn were the economy/taxation, Brexit and national security. Interestingly, those rumours concerning the Land Value Tax do appear to have stuck in the memory with a few present.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee
Headlines from tomorrow's front pages:
The Mail on Sunday: May goes nuclear
The Sunday Times: Tories savage Corbyn's 'triple tax whammy'
The Independent: Starmer sets out Labour's plans for Brexit
The Sunday Telegraph: Labour's garden tax to hit 10m
Sunday Express: Five days to save Brexit
The Observer: Labour pledges VAT cut to help lower-income families
Few papers like Sunday Mirror and Sunday Sun missing.
Headlines from tomorrow's front pages:
The Mail on Sunday: May goes nuclear
The Sunday Times: Tories savage Corbyn's 'triple tax whammy'
The Independent: Starmer sets out Labour's plans for Brexit
The Sunday Telegraph: Labour's garden tax to hit 10m
Sunday Express: Five days to save Brexit
The Observer: Labour pledges VAT cut to help lower-income families
Few papers like Sunday Mirror and Sunday Sun missing.
Wasn't the labour garden tax all scaremongering by the rags? Or has a further development occurred?
Pure scaremongering, the idea of a land value tax has been around for a long time, as far as the manifesto goes all they've said is they will have a look at it
It is referred to in the manifesto as a possibility, however not a policy for the election. I don't think that fears regarding the LVT would be a key reason for anyone; a supplemental if minor contribution to Corbyn's image perhaps.
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It's not going to happen.
I want to say again, mostly so I can come back to this outlandish post if it actually transpires like the unctious Mensch and that Claude guy do on twitter, that if Labour pull this out of the bag it will be the perfect symmetrical end to the last 2 years. A shock result in a GE that was unnecessary precipitated by a shock in a Brexit ref that was unnecessary due to an election promise that was unnecessary. It'd be a hell of a period for the history books, some worst-of-all-time political decisions.
Desperate bollocks from a party that is shitting itself right now.
Sorry to be so callous, but campaigning will obviously have to stop briefly in light of what just happened. But the election is only 5 days, how long will it last this time? They surely can't stop for too long. Maybe restart on Tuesday?
Depends how serious the incident turns out to be I suppose.
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Embarrassed himself in front of the country. Stupid idiot.