yeah that’s the crux of my question really. I know I could get one now, but whilst can pay the bills feel I should.
Question as to whether such flexibility will be there for those that haven’t taken one in say 6 months time.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Question as to whether such flexibility will be there for those that haven’t taken one in say 6 months time.
Seriously, this post is acceptable? Do feck off with your casual prejudice.
My gut feel is yes bacause we will probably be in wave 2 or 3 by then
But why not take the break and the money you would have saved stick it in a savings account and you can pay it all off in 3 months if you want but have the flexibility to dip into it if you needed it
I wonder how true that is. The people I've seen doing yoga or boxing on the green or in the park all looked fit already tbh.
There are undoubtedly way more joggers and a few older ones who may well have dug their trainers out the cupboard after years plus a few tubby ones. Loads of oeople must just be sitting on their arses though and I bet a lot of people are eating rubbish too.
It seems unlikely that the virus would be easily passed from one jogger to another alright.
I wonder how much footfall at nearby shops is impacted by increasing numbers of people travelling to a busy park though? I would hazard a guess that those sort of additional contact points are more of an issue than being outside in the park itself.
My parents just did their daily walk for the first time since 23/03. They seem proper chuffed, I'm happy for them it's cheered them up for definite.
The problem is if you run behind someone, or walk behind someone, and that person coughs or sneezes. You will then run directly into an aerosol cloud, if you draw breath then, you will get whatever they got.
There was an article here about that a couple of weeks ago. Other than that, it should be very safe, as long as people keep distance enough. Outside is very safe if people just keeps distance from eachother.
I did wonder that but as interest still accrues in the three months I figured you’d be in a net negative if you just paid that lump sum afterwards. Could be wrong though.
That article was based on reseaech that had not yet been peer reviewed and has been criticised a lot since. I think it was me that shared it
It might be unlikely on the basis of a single case but across an entire nation the scale causes discussion worthy transmission. Then you have to add in all the other events people tell themselves are unlikely to self-justify.
Yeah, fair point. Although those shops will have to make sure customers social distance, whether they’re busy or not.
I honestly think we’re all riding the wave created when mass gatherings were still happening and social distancing wasn’t a thing, in work or at home. It’s keeping out of offices, shops, pubs, clubs and other people’s houses that’s flattened the curve. Compared to those high risk behaviours the outdoor transmission risk is basically irrelevant (IMHO)
Again this is all anecdotal but it reading what people are saying on here it feels that we're getting to point that we were at just before the lockdown came in. That no-mans land when the government hadn't implemented a lockdown but we were elling the public to behave like there was one.
Quarantine originated from the Italian word for 40. I think that 40 days will be the limit for most people.
Quarantine originated from the Italian word for 40. I think that 40 days will be the limit for most people.
I don't think it's been (exactly) like that for weeks. At the beginning the streets were empty, this has been a process and I remember someone linking a survey/study conducted by a German psychologist in this thread, that tracked this decline people's social distancing morale. I would guess that Easter kind of opened the floodgates, people were visiting their relatives (or saw their neighbors doing it), without the numbers exploding afterwards. Which probably gave a lot of people a sense of security.
I think the biggest problem at the moment is that everything (after the initial scare) can seem so abstract and far away. According to RKI we have just over 40k (out of 154k registered) active cases and still a net decrease (1737 new cases vs 2340 closed cases). Berlin (where one of the pictures was taken) has 5600 cases registered, if they follow the same trend as the rest of the country they have around 1.5k active cases or say round about 50 cases per 100k people, or every 2000th person infected and in that picture you have circles of say 5 to 10 people, some of them redundant as they share a household and/or exchange fluids, what are the odds of one of those people being an asymptomatic case and infecting someone else out in the open. They probably aren't afraid of contracting the virus, because for now the odds are strongly in their favour and even if they do they know they will most likely have a mild case and even if they don't they know there will be a hospital bed or ventilator available for them. I think to some degree that's just how humans are wired. Take smokers for example, they know the side effects, they know their smoke hurts people around them, including their children, the negative effects of their habit are far more present to them and far more guaranteed than a person who decides to meet friends in a Berlin park at the moment, yet they even pay significant money to keep their habit going.
Don't get me wrong I understand exponential growth and the risk (or perhaps inevitability of further waves), I keep my distance, I only meet friends online, I will wear my mask, but the immediate fear of the virus (as in me getting infected/dying) is gone as well, so while I think those people who meet up in large groups are idiots I do understand where they are coming from and I don't think you can prevent this with kind words and warnings.
I would guess that the problem is more that people don't think they are likely to catch it than thinking it can't do damage once they have got it, so I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct with your second sentence and good detection + disciplined self isolation are what are keeping down the numbers for now.
That movie wasn’t an exercise in creativity. It was one of documentation. What we’re seeing now is no surprise. Everyone knew that the ‘right’ virus could do this, and how it would play out.
Does interest acrew... Thought that depended on the bank
I think the same but had a girl I know on my Facebook call me a murderer for that view. She says going out right now, for whatever reason, is equivalent to taking a knife and stabbing elderly in the back on my way. Her and her kids haven’t left home for 7 weeks, they open their window once every three days to let some air in but otherwise they don’t even use their backyard. Even when they pick up groceries which are delivered to their home they tell delivery man, from behind the door, to put them inside the house and get out quickly.
I’m sure it does In majority of cases yes. It’s not an absolute freeze and you pick up where you left off in three months. It rolls up and your mortgage payments in three months time are increased slightly for the 3 month reduction in capital repayment.
That's even less rational than people taking no real precautions. I'd worry about the kids.
I’ve seen this issue raised a few times now and it is significantly more complex than boiling it down to teachers “whinging”. There are huge practical and contractual considerations to consider.
Firstly, what sort of provision are you recommending? For childcare or for academic purposes? If the latter, as your first point insinuates, how does that impact upon the transition into the next academic year, particulary for primary school leavers? How does that impact upon subsequent breaks in curriculum and upcoming half terms? Or are you recommending a 21 week term? How does that impact upon the mental health and well-being of both pupils and staff? If for childcare purposes, how do schools determine which children are entitled to be there? Or are you suggesting that all pupils attend as they usually would but in a less formal setting?
How do schools ensure that their settings are adequately staffed? While teaching staff are salaried, what about the support staff, admin staff, catering staff and cleaning staff who aren’t? Teachers are a mere cog in the machine. Schools don’t function effectively without the others. If they are necessitated to be there, who pays them? Does the government fund it? I can assure you that budgets are incredibly tight.
What about parents who disagree with your suggestion entirely? Parents who have been working relentlessly during this period will have had parts of the six week break booked off with work for a long time already. Are their children forced to attend, or can they have time off to spend time with their parents? What about the teachers, particularly in secondary schools, that have been working hard to plan, mark and assess from home? Or the school staff that are still entering the school building on a fairly regular basis to provide essential childcare? Aren’t these people entitled to a degree of rest? What about school leaders, who have worked tirelessly in spite of shambolic guidance from the DfE? They earn well, but in my own context I can certainly say they’ve been worth every penny, now more than ever before. Ultimately, what about the children, who have already had their worlds turned upside-down? Is formal schooling during the summer holidays the best use of their time as they prepare to move into the next academic year?
So many considerations. Personally, I think that the academic benefit isn’t enough to support the opening of schools during the summer holidays. There is a better, more sustainable argument for the opening of schools for childcare provision, similar to the way they’re being operated right now. Some schools would be able to manage this more easily than others, as has been the case so far during the epidemic. With that, you enter the realm of unions. Why should some teaching staff work during the summer while others do not? A big can of worms in itself.
To answer your initial question: my answer would be that the odds are very, very low. But it’s an interesting suggestion and certainly one worthy of mature and complex discussion.
Schools in general will be a massive problem in this country. Class sizes are already overcrowded in the high schools I know, and there's no way they can be expected to work to the social distancing guidelines when you're already ramming in 35 kids in a classroom that was built for 20 odd kids.
I do think there is credibility in the idea of a short summer school (staggered across year groups) of about 1-2 weeks to help pupils though. But as you've pointed there's a lot of work that needs to go behind it, to make it work.
Thing is, until we know for sure we cant say one thing is ok and another isnt.
I think we will find eventually that there was no standout method of transmission but that they all added up together. The virus is clearly very good at taking hold from the slightest exposure so you would expect somebody in the world would have figured out a hotspot by now if it were, for example, a specific supermarket where most people in a particular town were catching it.
Considering there was far less impact from SARS we still knew more about it by now than we do about Covid19.
This virus has only been studied for 4 months so there are huge gaps in our knowledge alright. What we do know so far indicates outdoor spread not much of an issue. The research from the town in Germany that was a hot spot is interesting. They couldn’t even find any evidence of transmission in supermarkets/hairdressers. Seemed to all come from beer houses etc during a carnival.
Drunk people packed together in large numbers seems to be the worst possible scenario for spread. Which makes sense. Handing beers to each other, sharing cigarettes, shaking hands and/or kissing hello/goodbye etc etc. Infinitely more risky than running past someone in a park. You can also see why so many people got infected at ski resorts.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article...-but-Not-All-in-a-15214321.php#photo-19310196
Interesting article about a restaurant in China showing how it spread to those on the next table or two but not anywhere else. Eating, talking, laughing in the close confines indoors, like at your home with your friend round for hours is I think a major transmission. Communal areas in old people homes is sure to be a big risk with many coughing and the windows closed during March. We see on the droplet videos how simple ventilation can very quickly make all the airborne droplets leave or drop down. I think more should be done to tell people who risk having people round or large families rather than a month of washing hands and phones videos. UK also has some of the smallest homes in Europe on average.
My local chemist serves people outside in spaced out queues rather than having them all bunched inside like usual. I was going to suggest I'd like to be served outside before seeing it already happening as it's probably a bad place to hang around inside for 10-20 mins.
Exercise is great for getting out of depressive states and it's important for the body to get exercise and sunlight. I doubt transmission occurs outside if people keep a reasonable distance, I see nearly everyone doing that, should dissipate very quickly. I'll cross the road if I see a jogging train gassing up hill mind but only seen that once.
Interesting article about a restaurant in China showing how it spread to those on the next table or two but not anywhere else. Eating, talking, laughing in the close confines indoors, like at your home with your friend round for hours is I think a major transmission. Communal areas in old people homes is sure to be a big risk with many coughing and the windows closed during March. We see on the droplet videos how simple ventilation can very quickly make all the airborne droplets leave or drop down. I think more should be done to tell people who risk having people round or large families rather than a month of washing hands and phones videos. UK also has some of the smallest homes in Europe on average.
My local chemist serves people outside in spaced out queues rather than having them all bunched inside like usual. I was going to suggest I'd like to be served outside before seeing it already happening as it's probably a bad place to hang around inside for 10-20 mins.
Britain does need to be healthier, hopefully it has a knock on effect. Maybe cooking and baking more at home too can help people eat better.
Exercise is great for getting out of depressive states and it's important for the body to get exercise and sunlight. I doubt transmission occurs outside if people keep a reasonable distance, I see nearly everyone doing that, should dissipate very quickly. I'll cross the road if I see a jogging train gassing up hill mind but only seen that once.
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@Sweet Square - Johnno?
Yeah that’s completely dumb. She lived in China before and feels she’s super smart and special and other people are idiots. That’s part of the reason.
We have to wear masks in Poland now and even though I appreciate it is important and will save people, wearing them outside with no one around is pointless and dangerous. I don’t know whether that is lack of oxygen or anything else but after half an hour today with a mask on I started feeling dizzy and my head hurt so much I could barely keep my eyes open. Took off the mask, after 10 minutes all was good. Put it back on, got to the same state after 15 minutes.
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368 is today's UK number. Sunday always low but that's very low, hopefully another low figure tomorrow like last Monday.
There will be another low number tomorrow... then it'll go back to being high Tuesday/Weds/Thurs/Fri/Sat.
Its the same every single week, yet the media seem to glorify it. We need to stop with the daily deaths and just go weekly or something.
Teachers I know are having six weeks on full pay off now, maybe going in the odd day on a rota, so their holiday has effectively been brought forward.
agree but if the low is in the 300s rather than 500/600s, even accounting for the lag is a noticeable improvement
Feels like this is the lowest daily number we've had for a while though?
Yeah I'd agree with that, the daily death announcement doesn't sit easy with me I'd think it would make far more sense to do it weekly.
We had 449 on the back of 888 last weekend and went on to have figures 760-800+ so lets see this coming Tue/Wed. I would think week 5-6 should show a decent reduction if we're a bit later than some in Europe but if not then there could be a lot of fallout and tough decisions in two weeks.
Reminds me of a few weeks ago when we had 414 or so Sunday, low again on Monday then it skyrocketed on the Tuesday. Hence why I pay very little attention to weekend figures
I'm dubious about these low numbers at the moment. I live near a major hospital in Manchester, close to the lights at a major junction.
I can hear every ambulance and paramedic drive past with their siren on. The thursday before easter was just scary, barely 10-15 minutes went by all day without hearing a siren.
Since then it has got quieter but it is still much more regular than normal. I know it's not scientific and can't be directly linked but I'd say we are still at about 70 to 75% of that level of activity. I'm worried the reporting is being manipulated to suggest we are "not far behind Spain and Italy" in reducing lockdown when it feels to me that we are still on a high plateau rather than a definite downward trend.
I can hear every ambulance and paramedic drive past with their siren on. The thursday before easter was just scary, barely 10-15 minutes went by all day without hearing a siren.
Since then it has got quieter but it is still much more regular than normal. I know it's not scientific and can't be directly linked but I'd say we are still at about 70 to 75% of that level of activity. I'm worried the reporting is being manipulated to suggest we are "not far behind Spain and Italy" in reducing lockdown when it feels to me that we are still on a high plateau rather than a definite downward trend.
I'd be very for this. I think it's much more helpful and we'd generally see a slight improvement every week. I'm one of those who wants these daily briefings gone as well.
I'd prefer a the every Fri after work giving the weekly total up to 4pm that same day. With 1-2 more briefings from Sun-Fri. These daily repetitions are becoming an annoyance and the daily fluctuation of numbers are messing with some people's heads and mental well-being. It's too much up and down on a daily basis, summarise it every week.
See if you can apply for universal credit I would.
The phone isnt ringing for me and have no idea when it will.
I actually think they're an even bigger problem to society that people who are deliberately flouting the guidelines.
With people like who you've described above the country could easily end up in Martial Law if a wrongen comes into power.
Is that a way to limit movement?