SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Lay]

My daughter is pregnant, due in August and has been told to shield . She has also been warned that she may have to have a home birth.

My wife’s friend gave birth 4 days ago (5 weeks early) and it’s been a nightmare for her. They had told her months ago that they didn’t believe she could safely give birth naturally so booked a caesarean. But due to covid19 they said that was too risky and said to have a home natural birth despite the risks.

She gave birth at hospital naturally due to having some severe symptoms. She is still in there. Both seem to be fine but they’re not happy to discharge her yet.

 

[Balljy]

Did they explain why? Im confused by that as well but id imagine there's a reason i just cant see

It doesn't really make sense, but it will be to stop the temptation of people getting back to normality, Sunday lunches, watching tv, baby-sitting the grandchildren. Their thought will be that meeting in a neutral venue will limit the time and stop it becoming family occasions in a home.

Makes no reals sense though, same as not allowing someone to meet up with both parents at the same time - they'll be going back to the same house anyway and don't have to socially distance being in the same household.

 

[Revan]

I am a young person and yes, it fecking sucks but I value human lives far more than my own personal desires, nor needs. I miss my partner a lot and haven’t seen her since February but I realise that if everyone committed to a lockdown restrictions could be eased and I could see her. I have lost job opportunities and interviews but I realise if everyone committed they would arise again. I should be entering a great part of my life career wise (my late 20s) and have just spent a lot of money completing a Masters but now this situation has probably changed my career outlook monumentally but I realise that human life is worth more than that. I haven’t seen most of my friends since January but I realise human life is worth more. I’m probably not going to get to see as much of the world as I would before, I probably won’t be able to do many of the things I dreamt of before and I’ll probably have to be paying a lot back in the future so I won’t have as much for myself and my partner or children if I chose to have them (yes, there will be many who won’t want children or can’t justify it anymore because of the situation potentially in the future). All of that fecking sucks.

But you know what? I still have those opportunities. I’m still here right now and I can still make something of my life. There are plenty who won’t be able to because they’ve died. Lockdown is shit, people might lose their job or have a different life to what they may have had before. They still have their life.

EDIT: I would also like to add I have suffered with mental health issues since the age of 16, anxiety and depression that have each led me to try to take my own life in the past. I've hit rough patches and still do. I have during this lockdown also but people with mental health problems can still have perspective. It's very individual. For those that are struggling there should be a system in place to help them through the lockdown. not the excuse of "Yeah but people have mental illnesses so we should come out of lockdown for their sake". Same with people who live in poverty or crammed households. We should be making better decisions at a local level to ensure they get the space and help they need.

Fantastic post!

 

[Tom Van Persie]

Government is making it up as they go along. Nothing on masks yesterday during the PM's speech then all of a sudden the government is recommending masks?

I'm afraid we'll be seeing another spike of this thing soon. My mother was at the hospital today and the consultant was telling her to follow the previous stay at home guidelines. Says it all.

 

[Revan]

My son is 21 and studying in California (which is obliviously a worry) but I have huge optimism for his future.

I when I think of the difficult circumstances some people overcome I have little sympathy for people who are just annoyed they can't go out as much as usual to the point of not caring if others die to avoid inconvenience.

Hey, it is not that bad here (assuming that he is in Northern California where all the universities are).

 

[Buster15]

Did they explain why? Im confused by that as well but id imagine there's a reason i just cant see

Making it up as they go.
Just like facemasks.
Confused.com

 

[arnie_ni]

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Chuckled at this

 

[arnie_ni]

It doesn't really make sense, but it will be to stop the temptation of people getting back to normality, Sunday lunches, watching tv, baby-sitting the grandchildren. Their thought will be that meeting in a neutral venue will limit the time and stop it becoming family occasions in a home.

Makes no reals sense though, same as not allowing someone to meet up with both parents at the same time - they'll be going back to the same house anyway and don't have to socially distance being in the same household.

Yea that stumped me. What difference does it make if you meet 1 or 10 people from the same household.

Theres no social distancing within the house so if you pass it to the 1 person all 10 would likely get it anyway.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Interesting, our workplace’s guidelines has pregnant women as vulnerable and needing shielding. Our local GP had a sign up telling pregnant women to shield too.

Yeah guidance has been a bit all over the place, not very helpful! I advise you speak to your midwife and / or GP.

 

[Shakesy]

So. What is the possibility that we'll only find an effective vaccine in several years and that 70% of the population will eventually contract the virus? It would mean one person would have to out-hygiene two others in order to fall in the 30% that don't get it.

Who would have thought being a paranoid hypochondriac could have evolutionary benefits?

In fact, if this thing goes on long enough there might only be paranoid hypochondriacs left in the world by 2080.

 

[TheGame]

If you can visit someone from a different household in the park then you can do the same outside in their garden , there is no difference.

You cannot visit other people’s houses, it explicitly states that!

 

[GloryHunter07]

Did they explain why? Im confused by that as well but id imagine there's a reason i just cant see

Perhaps they dont want people going round peoples gardens for BBQs etc, asking for trouble. Parks are slightly less risky from the point of view.
@djembatheking

 

[GloryHunter07]

It doesn't really make sense, but it will be to stop the temptation of people getting back to normality, Sunday lunches, watching tv, baby-sitting the grandchildren. Their thought will be that meeting in a neutral venue will limit the time and stop it becoming family occasions in a home.

Makes no reals sense though, same as not allowing someone to meet up with both parents at the same time - they'll be going back to the same house anyway and don't have to socially distance being in the same household.

It does make some sense, for the reasons you gave above.

 

[GloryHunter07]

My daughter is pregnant, due in August and has been told to shield . She has also been warned that she may have to have a home birth.

Interesting - does she have a preexisting medical condition?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Pogue, you asked if NZ eradication was sensible. Asked what their long range plan was.

I gave you comment, and a cracking site to read up on it.

When they relax measures, as they are right now, they’re starting from a death total of 21(!) and all of their coping mechanisms in place.

I made it very clear that their plan is;

- Keep people alive
- Act on the best available science.

They’re not suggesting that they can eradicate permanently right now. That’s your straw man so don’t Throw that sh1te at me.

Maybe re-read your own posts as it’s clearly Possible to take them as ‘Was an attempt at eradication worth it? Should they have let more people get infected’. The answer is no. They only have 21 dead. More will die in the months to come. They know that they will see it reappear.

Whether through accepted infection rates due to new treatment, or the magic bullet of a vaccine, They’ll get there in a far better position that almost all countries.

They go to level 2 this week. Most are back at work. Essential Regional flights are in place (they have no motorway or rail network), with full PPE and testing wrapped around it. Regional Holidays come back with many of the old normals at level 1.

They’ll dance between 1 and 2 for a year. Maybe up to 3 at some point if they’re unlucky

Ok, that’s more like it.

And it’s possible I’ve misrepresented NZ’s strategy. I don’t think total eradication was their goal. It is more or less what’s happened though. For which they deserve huge credit.

My general point is that I think there might be a sweet spot in terms of community transmission where you get a slow steady increase of people exposed over the next several years. You don’t need the 60-70% of your population exposed that you need for herd immunity to put a big dent in the size of your second and subsequent waves. The difference between 30% immune and 5% could be huge in terms of being able to get through future waves without a complete lockdown again

Basically, I worry that countries with closed borders and single digit prevalence will have a much higher chance of needing to go into lockdown again in the future than those who’ve been a little less successful at flattening the curve this time round.

 

[djembatheking]

You cannot visit other people’s houses, it explicitly states that!

I have been visiting my mother and father in law near enough daily , they are in their 80s and he has alzheimers , it is incredibly difficult for my mother in law . Thankfully the weather has been good and we have sat outside in the garden a good 4 metres apart . I take a flask so when I have a cuppa they dont have contact , they make their own and mine goes home with me. I spray my chair down with disinfectant when I leave and they never touch it anyway . Without my visits my mother in law would struggle in isolation with a man that she has to remind every ten mins that they can`t go out because of the virus and no one normal to talk to.

 

[arnie_ni]

I have been visiting my mother and father in law near enough daily , they are in their 80s and he has alzheimers , it is incredibly difficult for my mother in law . Thankfully the weather has been good and we have sat outside in the garden a good 4 metres apart . I take a flask so when I have a cuppa they dont have contact , they make their own and mine goes home with me. I spray my chair down with disinfectant when I leave and they never touch it anyway . Without my visits my mother in law would struggle in isolation with a man that she has to remind every ten mins that they can`t go out because of the virus and no one normal to talk to.

Obviously that's an awfully tough situation, but technically that hasnt been allowed and you very easily could have been fined.

I wouldnt wish it on anyone

 

[Steven Seagull]

I have been visiting my mother and father in law near enough daily , they are in their 80s and he has alzheimers , it is incredibly difficult for my mother in law . Thankfully the weather has been good and we have sat outside in the garden a good 4 metres apart . I take a flask so when I have a cuppa they dont have contact , they make their own and mine goes home with me. I spray my chair down with disinfectant when I leave and they never touch it anyway . Without my visits my mother in law would struggle in isolation with a man that she has to remind every ten mins that they can`t go out because of the virus and no one normal to talk to.

keep doing it. Sometimes it’s ok to break some rules

 

[redshaw]

"We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection.

But where are people contracting the infection in the community? I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.!

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Good article that sums up some of the bits I've posted on here in the past 2 months like the Chinese restaurant, LA choir and ventilation being key indoors and adds some other examples like a call centre and indoor sporting event

This is potentially key information for places of work opening up soon and not walking into a huge second wave. Washing hands, cleaning your phone and keeping 1-2 metres apart won't help indoors and most is spread at home.

 

[sullydnl]

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So people travelling from Ireland to the UK/France won't have to quarantine but those going from the UK/France to Ireland will? Bit messy. Especially given it doesn't appear to apply to people travelling across the border. So people travelling from the UK/France to Ireland could presumably still just come in through NI and skip having to quarantine.

 

[One Night Only]

Sick of seeing every man and his dog telling us "wait for the second wave" like they are nostrodamus or something, it's already been said a million times ffs.

 

[djembatheking]

keep doing it. Sometimes it’s ok to break some rules

I intend to , they are wonderful people , mentally tough too . My father in law was the kindest guy before he became ill and even now he is still a good guy but can be hard going as his memory is shot (short term memory) and he is very childlike in a lot of his ways , he behaves like a 15 year old at times but you get good at changing the subject and dealing with it. They have a big garden that I do a bit at a time so an hour here and and hour there and they sit out and watch me from a distance but it all helps to make them feel less isolated as they don`t get to see their grandkids or greatgrandkids when they used to see them regularly.

 

[lynchie]

"We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection.

But where are people contracting the infection in the community? I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.!

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Good article that sums up some of the bits I've posted on here in the past 2 months like the Chinese restaurant, LA choir and ventilation being key indoors and adds some other examples like a call centre and indoor sporting event

This is potentially key information for places of work opening up soon and not walking into a huge second wave. Washing hands, cleaning your phone and keeping 1-2 metres apart won't help indoors and most is spread at home.

If you're interested in information on reopening office workplaces safely, there are good guides at http://www.cibse.org/coronavirus-covid-19/emerging-from-lockdown

Surfaces and close contact are still greater risks than aerosols, but definitely appears to be important to ensure good ventilation.

 

[utdalltheway]

Hey, it is not that bad here (assuming that he is in Northern California where all the universities are).

Answering for Wibs as he's been in bed
His boy's at UCSB.
There are some decent unis down south too.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[horsechoker]

Sick of seeing every man and his dog telling us "wait for the second wave" like they are nostrodamus or something, it's already been said a million times ffs.

It's reasonable to think there'll be one but most people are basing this on what happened with the Spanish flu. Some people keep saying that the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was worse than the 1st which and imply it will happen with this.

We don't fully understand this virus so we don't know if it'll get weaker or stronger. However, I do think there'll be a 2nd wave of some kind.

 

[DOTA]

Sick of seeing every man and his dog telling us "wait for the second wave" like they are nostrodamus or something, it's already been said a million times ffs.

What possible reason is there to think there wouldn't be a second wave? What could conceivably happen to stop it?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I intend to , they are wonderful people , mentally tough too . My father in law was the kindest guy before he became ill and even now he is still a good guy but can be hard going as his memory is shot (short term memory) and he is very childlike in a lot of his ways , he behaves like a 15 year old at times but you get good at changing the subject and dealing with it. They have a big garden that I do a bit at a time so an hour here and and hour there and they sit out and watch me from a distance but it all helps to make them feel less isolated as they don`t get to see their grandkids or greatgrandkids when they used to see them regularly.

I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong. There has to be a bit of common sense in all of this. And I think, in general, the rules are being enforced in a common sense manner. I would be amazed if anyone ever took issue with what you’re doing.

 

[djembatheking]

I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong. There has to be a bit of common sense in all of this. And I think, in general, the rules are being enforced in a common sense manner. I would be amazed if anyone ever took issue with what you’re doing.

I have to be extremely careful and keep a distance , mother in law is brilliant , she has got it but through no fault of his own my father in law constantly forgets so you have to be on the ball. Loneliness is a terrible thing too and I dread to think how he would be if anything happened to her , he totally relies on her and she needs some help.

 

[giggs-beckham]

So can someone clear up for me that if the little ones can go back to school in June, Ro permitting. Is that voluntary for parents??

 

[VP89]

What possible reason is there to think there wouldn't be a second wave? What could conceivably happen to stop it?

1) A lot more people having already had the virus than what testing shows and 2) immunity from the virus after having it.

1 is fair to suggest 2 would be based on little/nothing.

 

[jymufc20]

So can someone clear up for me that if the little ones can go back to school in June, Ro permitting. Is that voluntary for parents??

Could be wrong but it looks mandatory to me, I am not very happy about it.

 

[DOTA]

1) A lot more people having already had the virus than what testing shows and 2) immunity from the virus after having it.

1 is fair to suggest 2 would be based on little/nothing.

1 is baseless speculation that boils down to 'you never know!'. We of course wait to see what happens with 2.

 

[groovyalbert]

Rumours that it will be extended to September but only 60% subsidised

Where did you hear this?

 

[Eckers99]

So can someone clear up for me that if the little ones can go back to school in June, Ro permitting. Is that voluntary for parents??

My missus is a Primary School TA and the union sent her a letter today saying that, despite repeated attempts to get some clarity about safety concerns, the government has ignored all of their letters/emails. Because of this they're being told to refuse until some answers to basic questions are forthcoming. So, based on that, I wouldn't say it's any way guaranteed that the schools open to some year groups - which is what has been proposed.

 

[giggs-beckham]

My missus is a Primary School TA and the union sent her a letter today saying that, despite repeated attempts to get some clarity about safety concerns, the government has ignored all of their letters/emails. Because of this they're being told to refuse until some answers to basic questions are forthcoming. So, based on that, I wouldn't say it's any way guaranteed that the schools open to some year groups - which is what has been proposed.

I could've sworn I heard that on c4 news it wasnt mandatory, I haven't got sky record plus so cant go back and watch again. If someone else could would be good but I think it's an important detail. We wont be sending ours back if and when the time comes and the Ro permits. I think you have to manage your own household to some extent.

 

[sammsky1]

We started lockdown on 24 March. If you assume that it takes 1 month between infection and death, that would mean the losses of life since 25 April all happened due to people catching C19 during lockdown. That number is ~9000 people.
Assuming a CFR of 0.5%, this means that about 1.8m people caught the disease since the start of lockdown in the space of 16 days.
I know that this is very much a rough and ready estimate, but that means about 100k people caught covid-19 every day on average during lockdown.
If the r0 continues to hover around 1.0 and the rate of spread stays about the same, it'll take around 14 months for the UK to reach herd immunity. Obviously, r0 might drop as people become more knowledgable about the disease and adapt their behaviour. But that could be cancelled out as the overall number of infected increases and/or the populace becomes increasingly complacent about distancing. It's too early to say for certain how things will turn out. But looking at the way Brits have handled lockdown so far, I'd lean towards the latter scenario being the overriding factor.
If we want to save lives, we need to isolate the vulnerable. If we want to end the crisis, we need to reach herd immunity. Luckily, those two solutions aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

Interesting analysis.

Upon reflection, UK was abit hysterical in its reaction to the words 'herd immunity', even if that was understandable due to being uninformed about epidemiology and pandemics.

The lockdown was necessary as we didn't have medical capacity (or experience) at that time, hence slow down the virus AND NOT eradicate the virus. Without a global vaccine, the only way out for a globally oriented country like UK is to carefully acquire 'herd immunity', ensuring it has enough medical capacity to deal with the unfortunate collateral damage such a process would inflict.

Politicians need be very careful in how they communicate this message, and I don't think it means they don't care for human life. The reality is this virus is already here and will kill many many more. The only chance we have to carefully acquire 'herd immunity' is persuade our public to behave with responsibility and ensure those who end up in ICU get the best care possible.

 

[buchansleftleg]

So can someone clear up for me that if the little ones can go back to school in June, Ro permitting. Is that voluntary for parents??

If parents refuse to let their children attend school they won't be fined. The reality is most schools will fight to stop this happening. At most they might run some staggered 'transition" sessions for kids moving from reception to year one and year 6. The setting of a max class size of 15 and maintaining social distance makes a mockery of any sort of normal teaching. At best this might form some guidance for summer schools, childcare and kids club activities.

 

[sammsky1]

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[George Owen]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-the-tide-is-coming-for-medicinal-cannabis/a-53371342

Study in Canada (Lethbridge University) suggests that cannabis can prevent the virus from binding onto you. (similar to that nicotine study posted here several days ago)