SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Sarni]

One of Polish artists said she doesn’t believe that there’s a virus that gets killed by soap but not by any medicine, and found it funny to say ‘maybe people should eat soap’.

Her being an idiot was expected. The fact that I have dozens of people posting this on Facebook saying ‘well said, it’s a scam’ etc. is quite frankly shocking. The state of modern population.

 

[Sarni]

It is a possibility, I imagine government's will be making plans for this. It would require changes to our lifestyles in order to live with the virus. If we can build up a herd immunity that would be optimal. Contract tracing will also be necessary and I imagine that apps for this will be required if you have a smartphone. I think shops could also install screens for their cashiers to stand behind or even masks and gloves being compulsory for everyone. Sports would be behind closed doors, perhaps stadiums could open small sections with families allowed to sit next to each other but nobody in the next 2 or 3 seats around them.

When I try to imagine how the world continues without a virus or without immunity then it's hard to see how the economy or life can even get close to how it was last year.

I don’t think it would be sustainable for an extended period. Already a high percentage of population believe the virus is a scam to control population. If you try to force them to live like that for much longer, there would be millions of morons on the streets. You’d have to literally start firing guns at them to get control back. People are just too dumb and access to internet is too common.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's ok, I thought the same But I wanted to be sure it actually isn't protective against Covid before my next effort.

Not smoking isn't the worst, you get used to it quickly, but this forced fluid management sucks.

The smoking thing is confusing. Arguably not a good time to quit.

I heard an interesting idea about a confounding variable though. HCWs are disproportionately represented among the infected. And they smoke a lot less than non-HCWs (with some honourable exceptions!). Plus they often get a higher viral load. Hence non-smokers might appear to get infected more often/get sicker when the real risk is the job they do.

In the studies I’ve seen they control for age/sex/co-morbidities but not profession.

 

[DVG7]

That’s your reaction to someone spending 50+ hours a week in full PPE in a Covid 19 ER ward? Go wash your legs.

I have nothing but respect and admiration for any healthcare worker. It was health advice.

 

[Dante]

It is a possibility, I imagine government's will be making plans for this. It would require changes to our lifestyles in order to live with the virus. If we can build up a herd immunity that would be optimal. Contract tracing will also be necessary and I imagine that apps for this will be required if you have a smartphone. I think shops could also install screens for their cashiers to stand behind or even masks and gloves being compulsory for everyone. Sports would be behind closed doors, perhaps stadiums could open small sections with families allowed to sit next to each other but nobody in the next 2 or 3 seats around them.

When I try to imagine how the world continues without a virus or without immunity then it's hard to see how the economy or life can even get close to how it was last year.

We started lockdown on 24 March. If you assume that it takes 1 month between infection and death, that would mean the losses of life since 25 April all happened due to people catching C19 during lockdown. That number is ~9000 people.

Assuming a CFR of 0.5%, this means that about 1.8m people caught the disease since the start of lockdown in the space of 16 days.

I know that this is very much a rough and ready estimate, but that means about 100k people caught covid-19 every day on average during lockdown.

If the r0 continues to hover around 1.0 and the rate of spread stays about the same, it'll take around 14 months for the UK to reach herd immunity. Obviously, r0 might drop as people become more knowledgable about the disease and adapt their behaviour. But that could be cancelled out as the overall number of infected increases and/or the populace becomes increasingly complacent about distancing. It's too early to say for certain how things will turn out. But looking at the way Brits have handled lockdown so far, I'd lean towards the latter scenario being the overriding factor.

If we want to save lives, we need to isolate the vulnerable. If we want to end the crisis, we need to reach herd immunity. Luckily, those two solutions aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

[GloryHunter07]

My wife is pregnant and is shielding for 12 weeks. Do I still go to work? From people I’ve asked, I’ve got mixed responses.

Presumably she is shielding due to a pre-existing condition, not just the pregnancy?

 

[Wumminator]

These answers from Boris here... just incoherent.

 

[arnie_ni]

He only ever answers half a question.

Laura k - explain why i can see co workers at work but i cant see my granny.

He didnt once address the family issue part of that question.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

No. What a weird way to interpret what I wrote. I’m arguing that controlled spread might be better than complete eradication. In the very long term.

Is it easier to control the spread with;

- A knowledgeable public
- 3-9 months of experience
- Large data sets
- Experiences/Case studies from across the globe
- Treatments to stunt severity
- Fully stocked and prepared hospitals

Or easier without those things?

Apologies if I’m addressing the wrong issue and you think Nz’s plan is to shut down borders until Covid is gone. Which it isn’t.

 

[Wumminator]

Oh man, an absolute dickhead on my Facebook has been arguing about how clear Boris’ message was and how only idiots can’t understand the rules. He’s now just said that he will be going to see his Dad in his garden as he will be socially distancing and Boris has made it clear this is allowed and no longer prohibited.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is it easier to control the spread with;

- A knowledgeable public
- 3-9 months of experience
- Large data sets
- Experiences/Case studies from across the globe
- Treatments to stunt severity
- Fully stocked and prepared hospitals

Or easier without those things?

Apologies if I’m addressing the wrong issue and you think Nz’s plan is to shut down borders until Covid is gone. Which it isn’t.

You’ve such a bizarre way of “debating”. First you completely misrepresent what I said, then you go off on a tangent asking me a load of questions that have feck all to do with anything being discussed. I’ve seen you take a similar approach with loads of people. It comes across as quite childish.

What do you get out of posting on redcafe? Are you only interested in trying to score points? Have you ever considered trying to understand a different point of view? Or think hard about the points being made that you initially disagree with? If you’ve any intention of ever trying to adjust your style this thread would be a good place to start. If not, then you should probably keep your straw men for stupid arguments about football.

EDIT: to address your tangent. Every single one of those bullet points can still happen with ongoing controlled spread in any given country. Not a single one of them requires viral eradication to happen first. You know this, though. Surely?

 

[Full bodied red]

He only ever answers half a question.

Laura k - explain why i can see co workers at work but i cant see my granny.

He didnt once address the family issue part of that question.

We're missing our first grandaughter who lives in the UK so much that it hurts.

We were hoping that by now we could have got a flight to the UK and had a couple of weeks with her.

On the other hand, Frau FBR made a comment that her POW father didn't return from the USA to the Fatherland until 1947 - by which time, her elser sister was five years old and he'd never even seen her until then, so our three months to date isn't even on the same scale yet....

 

[arnie_ni]

Oh man, an absolute dickhead on my Facebook has been arguing about how clear Boris’ message was and how only idiots can’t understand the rules. He’s now just said that he will be going to see his Dad in his garden as he will be socially distancing and Boris has made it clear this is allowed and no longer prohibited.

He just said thats ok. One on one from other households is fine if social distancing outside is adhered to

 

[hp88]

These answers from Boris here... just incoherent.

Good question from the teacher there about mixing with students but not her parents, unfortunately all she got back for an answer was a load of waffle.

 

[United Hobbit]

"Doing whack a mole"

 

[arnie_ni]

Good question from the teacher there about mixing with students but not her parents, unfortunately all she got back for an answer was a load of waffle.

Another good question was because ive no childcare and school.isnt starting to june what do i do if my employer wants me back?

He didnt fecking answer it

 

[Wumminator]

He just said thats ok. One on one from other households is fine if social distancing outside is adhered to

it is specially not ok.

 

[arnie_ni]

it is specially not ok.

Sorry im confused? Boris just said one on one from another household outside adhering to social distancing is ok, or am i missing something here?

 

[Wumminator]

Sorry im confused? Boris just said one on one from another household outside adhering to social distancing is ok, or am i missing something here?

you can not visit another household. It has to be in a park.

 

[United Hobbit]

Surprised no one has asked about Furlough my CEO is already hinting if it isnt increased more people are being made redundant

 

[arnie_ni]

you can not visit another household. It has to be in a park.

Did he not just say outside? Like on the street or in the front garden?

Edit i see the guy on after said in the park.

Basically it has to be a neutral venue haha

 

[madzo2007]

Surprised no one has asked about Furlough my CEO is already hinting if it isnt increased more people are being made redundant

The reporter on the BBC mentioned the Chancellor is talking about that tomorrow

 

[United Hobbit]

The reporter on the BBC mentioned the Chancellor is talking about that tomorrow

Ah ok thank you

 

[arnie_ni]

Ah ok thank you

He initially said 3 months i think. March April May.

Cant see him extending it past that at the same 80 percent, 2.5k

 

[United Hobbit]

He initially said 3 months i think. March April May.

Cant see him extending it past that at the same 80 percent, 2.5k

I wonder if they will just keep it for those that he has specifically told to stay shut eg cinema people etc but that will leave a lot more questions

 

[jymufc20]

Another good question was because ive no childcare and school.isnt starting to june what do i do if my employer wants me back?

He didnt fecking answer it

He hasn't got an answer for it and hasn't had one all along as anyone in the manufacturing or construction industry who had to still work but couldn't get childcare pretty much had the choice to take holidays or unpaid leave.

 

[madzo2007]

He initially said 3 months i think. March April May.

Cant see him extending it past that at the same 80 percent, 2.5k

It was extended to the end of June back in April

GOV UK - Furlough Scheme

 

[madzo2007]

I wonder if they will just keep it for those that he has specifically told to stay shut eg cinema people etc but that will leave a lot more questions

Rumours that it will be extended to September but only 60% subsidised

 

[Garethw]

He just said thats ok. One on one from other households is fine if social distancing outside is adhered to

In a park. Not in a garden.

 

[Lay]

Presumably she is shielding due to a pre-existing condition, not just the pregnancy?

Just the pregnancy. Unless it’s changed pregnant women were given 12 weeks off from March 23rd.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

You’ve such a bizarre way of “debating”. First you completely misrepresent what I said, then you go off on a tangent asking me a load of questions that have feck all to do with anything being discussed. I’ve seen you take a similar approach with loads of people. It comes across as quite childish.

What do you get out of posting on redcafe? Are you only interested in trying to score points? Have you ever considered trying to understand a different point of view? Or think hard about the points being made that you initially disagree with? If you’ve any intention of ever trying to adjust your style this thread would be a good place to start. If not, then you should probably keep your straw men for stupid arguments about football.

EDIT: to address your tangent. Every single one of those bullet points can still happen with ongoing controlled spread in any given country. Not a single one of them requires viral eradication to happen first. You know this, though. Surely?

Pogue, you asked if NZ eradication was sensible. Asked what their long range plan was.

I gave you comment, and a cracking site to read up on it.

When they relax measures, as they are right now, they’re starting from a death total of 21(!) and all of their coping mechanisms in place.

I made it very clear that their plan is;

- Keep people alive
- Act on the best available science.

They’re not suggesting that they can eradicate permanently right now. That’s your straw man so don’t Throw that sh1te at me.

Maybe re-read your own posts as it’s clearly Possible to take them as ‘Was an attempt at eradication worth it? Should they have let more people get infected’. The answer is no. They only have 21 dead. More will die in the months to come. They know that they will see it reappear.

Whether through accepted infection rates due to new treatment, or the magic bullet of a vaccine, They’ll get there in a far better position that almost all countries.

They go to level 2 this week. Most are back at work. Essential Regional flights are in place (they have no motorway or rail network), with full PPE and testing wrapped around it. Regional Holidays come back with many of the old normals at level 1.

They’ll dance between 1 and 2 for a year. Maybe up to 3 at some point if they’re unlucky

 

[GloryHunter07]

Just the pregnancy. Unless it’s changed pregnant women were given 12 weeks off from March 23rd.

There have been mixed messages (my wife is pregnant) but i dont think pregnant women fall into the shielding category automatically.
From the UK Government’s new document:

Protecting the clinically vulnerable
It remains the case that some people are more clinically vulnerable to COVID-19 than others. These include those aged over 70, those with specific chronic pre-existing conditions and pregnant women.26 These clinically vulnerable people should continue to take particular care to minimise contact with others outside their households, but do not need to be shielded.

Page 28

 

[Lay]

There have been mixed messages (my wife is pregnant) but i dont think pregnant women fall into the shielding category automatically.
From the UK Government’s new document:
Page 28

Interesting, our workplace’s guidelines has pregnant women as vulnerable and needing shielding. Our local GP had a sign up telling pregnant women to shield too.

 

[djembatheking]

If you can visit someone from a different household in the park then you can do the same outside in their garden , there is no difference.

 

[horsechoker]

If most people are confused then the police will be too and I can see there being many instances where the police punish people even though they aren't doing anything wrong.

 

[djembatheking]

Interesting, our workplace’s guidelines has pregnant women as vulnerable and needing shielding. Our local GP had a sign up telling pregnant women to shield too.

My daughter is pregnant, due in August and has been told to shield . She has also been warned that she may have to have a home birth.

 

[Wumminator]

If you can visit someone from a different household in the park then you can do the same outside in their garden , there is no difference.

They specified that it is different.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

My daughter is pregnant, due in August and has been told to shield . She has also been warned that she may have to have a home birth.

My brothers partner had a baby recently and had a home birth. They wanted that anyway and were terrified of having to go to hospital for the birth instead. It was a more complicated pregnancy and his partner has an immunodeficiency. I still haven’t seen the baby.

 

[arnie_ni]

They specified that it is different.

Did they explain why? Im confused by that as well but id imagine there's a reason i just cant see

 

[Smores]

If you can visit someone from a different household in the park then you can do the same outside in their garden , there is no difference.

I think the idea is if people go to other people's gardens they'll just end up not social distancing, which after the bank holiday shit show i can see being the case.

It's stupid messaging though and they should just have stuck to 2 metre apart outside is fine but not inside. That's the key message.