Yeah I know, but there’s a huge difference with a 5 week tough lockdown, followed by eradication and a quick return to a completely normal life.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
what are you basing that on? Are you saying it would have been eradicated if everyone Did lockdown a month earlier?
Based on lock-downs working well particularly if you do them properly and early (which almost nobody did barring a very few) as it is a great and often only way to get R significantly and consistently below 1. My fear is that the hints of a second wave (not that the first one has really gone away yet) will become far worse than we have seen so far in the Northern hemisphere winter.
Many countries could have eradicated or at least functionally so (excluding returning citizens held in quarantine). Possibly even most with a much earlier lock-down. Certainly more than 1 (NZ) and a few small island nations. Australia could have done for a start. Even if we hadn't blinked at the end of the lock-down we did have we could have, much less after a lock-down that started much earlier. The global failure to take this serious enough and lock down fast enough was a global failure of leadership on an epic scale. Even NZ wasn't really early enough, just early enough for the low levels of infections they had when they did lock down.
We need to have a proper pandemic plan for the world and each country.
I fear that at some point in the future an even worse virus will hit and exactly what you said is needed. I saw a Bill Gates Ted talk from about 5 years ago warning something like this would happen. I really hope the powers that be along with trying to getting the planet moving again are working out some sort of real plan for the next one.
If a spectacularly worse one hits would it even spread that easy? A big part of the reason Ebola never truly caused havoc globally is because it killed hosts before they had the chance to pass it on.
As awful as it would have been for the area that had the initial outbreak and the unlucky feckers that caught it, it would have probably been better for the globe if Covid did have a sky high fatality rate.
Well, worse could also be a virus with high mortality but a long incubationperiod were you are contagious.
Think Smallpox... fecking terrifying that the US and Russia still keep it in a lab.
I think some of the stuff about early and hard lockdowns are, with respect, being said with quite some degree of hindsight bias. These are not small or easy decisions either way and affects literally millions of people whatever you do. European leaders would have looked like total buffoons in the early 2000s for instance had they locked down over SARS for instance.
I would also suggest that if you can count on two hands the number of countries that have managed to completely eradicate the virus from their territory, almost all of them small states in the Pacific or Caribbean, there are perhaps a few more complexities to the situation than some people assume.
I would also suggest that if you can count on two hands the number of countries that have managed to completely eradicate the virus from their territory, almost all of them small states in the Pacific or Caribbean, there are perhaps a few more complexities to the situation than some people assume.
You are right in the sense that killing the host is a bad evolutionary tactic. But much worse symptoms than COVID that don't kill many more people is quite possible. And even another similar pandemic in the near future would destroy any recover. Repeat every 5-10 years and the world is in real trouble.
This is really heart-warming. I would say the same is happening in the UK, even in usually miserable London. Neighbours who've previously shown no inclination to engage whatsoever were getting in touch knowing I'm a doctor and letting us know that if we needed help or shopping etc, they were more than happy to help. A couple of my kids have also gotten into volunteering in their local area and delivering food to the vulnerable and shielding, again having shown little interest in engaging with the people in their area before.
Some people have felt trapped but certainly some others have gotten closer to their families during this time as well, which is great to see.
Because we are led by donkeys. It was obvious very early on to the actual experts that this was not SARS. And if we had an actual plan involving experts we would be able to plot these differences and act appropriately even in more complex situations.
And while we didn't have that now so many world leaders have brought utter incompetence to the table. BoJo, Trump and that clown in Brazil spring to mind.
IMHO only possible if we severely curtail the ability of folk to travel the world at will. Just look at the figures for the U.K. in early 2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...dtourismprovisionalresults/januarytomarch2020
Now explain how the devil any country in Europe would be able to successfully lock down with those sort of numbers and carry their population with them when in the early stages the true threat is unknown. Laughable without a total alteration to our lifestyle.
Woke up with a sore throat this morning. First time in 2020. Crazy the emotions you feel over something which is probably completely trivial. Feel like I’ve failed at social distancing and dreading the possibility of having to get in touch with family/friends I’ve hung out with over last week to tell them I may have passed on a deadly disease.
I see Preston is now subject to a local lock down. What's the word on the street with these? Are people ignoring the new rules?
This is what I mean though. If your goal is total eradication within your country and then shutting yourself off from every country that hasn't done the same, then there are about 180 world leaders that are total donkeys. Even some countries that had initial superb success, even if relative, even if surrounded by total incompetence (Greece, Japan etc), are starting to see increases again.
Were many experts calling for a total national/international lockdown in late January/ early February? I don't recall them doing so to be honest. One of our own experts, for reference (Ferguson, who I do respect), has previously predicted potentially huge death figures for bird flu, swine flu and mad cow disease, as have the WHO. It is of course part of their job to look at potential worst case scenarios, though perhaps best to do so surreptitiously. Should we have shut down hard and fast for those diseases as well?
Johnson, Trump, Bolsonaro are obviously one end of the extreme (though the former is not the same as the latter two). But it is not these leaders that I am talking about. We're getting trapped in between the Brazil/ NZ approaches. Of course those are not the only 2 approaches and of course, there are almost 200 other countries/territories beyond the same 10 or so we often talk about in this thread, who have had to find their own ways to deal with it. My point is that, outside of some very small, very isolated island states (or Taiwan/Vatican City etc), there are almost no countries which have managed to achieve what you are asking for.
Which might suggest, putting aside the morality of all the approaches, that it is a bit more difficult than you think it might be.
Probably because a fair percentage of the most vulnerable are already dead!
Correct, all this easing up has been a disaster
Vietnam have seen a return of the virus. They dealt with it well in March, they closed the borders and tested everyone returning early on. No deaths at all and no locally transmitted cases for months.
Now there's 10 deaths and over 700 cases. Da Nang area (the epicentre of this outbreak) is in lockdown with plans to test everyone there.
Now there's 10 deaths and over 700 cases. Da Nang area (the epicentre of this outbreak) is in lockdown with plans to test everyone there.
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Vietnam? Da Nang is in Vietnam.
Vietnam should tell Stan and Wibs that there was never any simple solution to this like they seem to think. Australia and Israel too for that matter.
Also--- they love masks in Vietnam.
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Do you mean Vietnam? I thought Taiwan had achieved a NZ like state where the only new cases are from quarantined travellers currently?
Vietnam has also done a very good job so far, though they're getting a little uptick in cases again now.
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It is very simple, people just need to be patient. Here cinemas have been identified as a source so have been closed. Thats what you do, you close every high risk venue where people can gather. Ok your life will be dull for bit but hey, who cares.
Interesting theme from Preston, which is consistent with Trafford, was that over half of the reported cases in the last week have been from those under the age of 30.
Yeah I meant Vietnam, sorry. I was looking at other countries after reading about Vietnam and typed out Taiwan.
Same all over Europe isn’t it? Horny 20-30 year olds desperate for a bit of fun in 2020.
Agree with this, I think the new normal will be a 3-2 balance between WFH and being at the office (depending on what the individual employer feels is appropriate) - I certainly know that my employer is looking into this as a long-term strategy.
I think so, I was at a pub last night sat outdoors and I saw a hell of a lot of 18-24 year olds mixing households (assumed on the basis that they all met each other there). In some aspects it supports the hospital admission numbers that we're seeing in the UK data.
That's pretty much it, not sure how fun it will be when they pass it on to their grandparents
I much prefer working from home too. My alarm goes off an hour and a half later than it used to every week day. I'd developed a twitch in my eyelid through tiredness that had been there for over a year and that's stopped; doubtless there's a number of other less visible health benefits to that too. I also now use the time I would have been commuting home to work out - I'd never really worked out in my life before.
First, you’re the one reading into it what you want.
Secondly what’s your point about him being a scout?
No shit. Just look at the pubs
For every 3 Covid deaths there were another 2 caused by the impact of lockdown and people not seeking medical treatment, etc.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923
That entire article seems really condescending for some reason. Also reads as someone has just made it up on the spot as they'd been WFH and had actually done feck all for 4 of their 5 days
I just think most employers will go back to the old normal as soon as they can do legallyThat entire article seems really condescending for some reason. Also reads as someone has just made it up on the spot as they'd been WFH and had actually done feck all for 4 of their 5 days
Yeah same here, they'll keep whatever benefits the company though (shorter breaks to not clog canteen, they'll think it's more productive having people at their posts quicker). Also less staff so there is more space for everyone. They'll talk how they're keeping protocols just incase, but then remove any which costs them money (face masks, extra cleaning, etc)
What’s the model for how many Covid deaths we’d have if we didn’t lock down and just let it overwhelm the hospitals?
UK figures for today - 55 deaths, 758 cases
Cases down by 113 from yesterday but testing numbers were slightly down.
Cases down by 113 from yesterday but testing numbers were slightly down.
Here’s another crazy stat....
July 2015-2019 average deaths in Sweden: 6525
July 2020: 5647
I am not sure how the deaths of those afraid to seek help can be attributed to the lockdown, as the article suggests. Those people would have been afraid to seek help with or without lockdown.
Living in South Africa and seeing how corrupt our leaders are is sickening. I guess it happens all over the world. The thing that makes my blood boil for the most part is that the cycle just continues and people are barely ever held to account.
If I misappropriated 1cent from work, I’d be fired and I’ll be lucky to not be in jail. My career would basically be ruined. Tender misuse and public money being syphoned to connected persons is absolutely sickening and it seems to happen everywhere.
@afrocentricity - sorry not sure why/how I quoted you in there
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While this pandemic is undoubtedly causing a lot of problems to the world, it actually provides an opportunity for us to transform into a better society and economy. The productivity doesn't necessarily drop working from home, in some business it is actually more efficient as it saves time from transportation. People can also work in a more comfortable environment with a computer they are familiar with. Twitter and Square have already announced that they provide their employees an option to work from home permanently.
The same also applies to education. With online teaching, students don't have to wake up at 6am in the morning attending lectures where they fall asleep in. I understand there are some face-to-face experience that can never be replaced (e.g. lab work, exams), and the current lockdown measures are too extreme to adopt sustainably, but there are ways that the society can operate more efficiently than before. We shouldn't stick to the tradition just because we're used to it, we should always look for better ways to create a better world.
The same also applies to education. With online teaching, students don't have to wake up at 6am in the morning attending lectures where they fall asleep in. I understand there are some face-to-face experience that can never be replaced (e.g. lab work, exams), and the current lockdown measures are too extreme to adopt sustainably, but there are ways that the society can operate more efficiently than before. We shouldn't stick to the tradition just because we're used to it, we should always look for better ways to create a better world.