Is it feck... almost 64000 excess deaths in Britain since first 50 Covid deaths. The worst in Europe per capita.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Are you lacking some reading comprehension?
I'm talking about the 77 deaths from yesterday and the 20 from testing positive in the last 28 days. You are using these current stats in your piss and moan. Please take a moment and look at the big graph there and sentences describing the current daily and weekly totals and what I'm replying to, your daily current numbers of UK deaths you don't like. See how that figure has dropped by 3/4.
Check my posting history, I've said time and again, UK has 65k excess deaths,. I've posted how only UK and Spain are up in the 950-1000 deaths per million and only places like NY and NJ state can top that with 1600 deaths per million. You've lost it.
It's very telling you blast that 65k back without reading.
How many times, it's not about deaths per million, or how many died in April. It's about current cases.
Bottom line is I've caught you pissing and moaning again and there you go, 65k excess knee jerk reply, you can't get past it. The cheek of the UK blablabla.
Saved you some time, here you go
Probably one of the first to post it here if I go back. Very glad we have the ONS reporting up to date figures during the mess.
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Disclaimer: I lack some reading comprehension
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
Sweden: Covid-19 deaths 5,710 versus 5,332 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = (378)
Germany: Covid-19 deaths 8,972 versus 9,303 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 331
France: Covid-19 deaths 29,996 versus 29,073 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 923
UK - Former methodology : Covid-19 deaths 56,063 versus 63,919 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 7,857
UK - New methodology : Covid-19 deaths 41,329 versus 63,919 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 22,790
England's current covid-19 deaths heavily inflated?
I'm talking about current daily death stats he was usingDisclaimer: I lack some reading comprehension
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
Sweden: Covid-19 deaths 5,710 versus 5,332 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = (378)
Germany: Covid-19 deaths 8,972 versus 9,303 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 331
France: Covid-19 deaths 29,996 versus 29,073 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 923
UK - Former methodology : Covid-19 deaths 56,063 versus 63,919 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 7,857
UK - New methodology : Covid-19 deaths 41,329 versus 63,919 excess deaths ~~~ Difference = 22,790
England's current covid-19 deaths heavily inflated?
Can you not see how yesterdays 77 deaths is 20 if counted the same as Wales, Scotland using testing positive within the last 28 days and asking the question how are others logging theirs and raising the problem with using UK's current 50-80 deaths? Can you see the picture? Your post doesn't relate to anything I was posting about which is the day to day figures used.
I kept on using "at this stage" and "current daily weekly figures" and added a large image and talked about the problem of using these daily numbers as ammo when again, that at this stage these current daily numbers may be heavily inflated, ie 77 is actually 20. The post I replied was using these 50-80 day deaths, you also come back with these irrelevant totals.
So yes, if you read what I quoted and my reply you should be able to tell it's about daily and weekly numbers.
@redshaw, you’re claiming that Britain has it correct now, currently? Despite the fact that it’s been fecking way off since March?
Erm, sure. I’d say you’re incredibly naive.
Excess deaths show us the countries that are good at the death toll, France, The Nordics, Germany, Belgium. UK are not one so I’m not stupid enough to suddenly believe they now have it right, especially when they just scratched off 5000 deaths when excess says they should have been adding 20,000.
The new methodology is clearly worse.
And yes it’s about cases again, but cases mean absolutely nothing unless all countries are testing equally right?
And if more people keep dying in the UK than France, are the UK actually getting lower cases than France and just “bad luck”?
Erm, sure. I’d say you’re incredibly naive.
Excess deaths show us the countries that are good at the death toll, France, The Nordics, Germany, Belgium. UK are not one so I’m not stupid enough to suddenly believe they now have it right, especially when they just scratched off 5000 deaths when excess says they should have been adding 20,000.
The new methodology is clearly worse.
And yes it’s about cases again, but cases mean absolutely nothing unless all countries are testing equally right?
And if more people keep dying in the UK than France, are the UK actually getting lower cases than France and just “bad luck”?
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Let's say that some people like me or @Regulus Arcturus Black are skeptical about the data (deaths, cases, past, current, future, etc.) provided by the UK Gvt or authorities.
Looking at excess deaths, you’d be incredibly naive not to be sceptical about the stats coming out of the countries that are way off. And that means all stats just as you say.Let's say that some people like me or @Regulus Arcturus Black are skeptical about the data (deaths, cases, past, current, future, etc.) provided by the UK Gvt or authorities.
Whether it’s shit admin, poor testing, or a country being bit naughty with the data, I guess that’ll differ by country.
The NY times has a piece on the US already passing 200,000.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ck&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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Excess deaths have nothing to do with what I replied to. Please see the image of my post in July, I'm way there before you, it should have 20k+ added.
You referenced UK's recent daily deaths way back. I said these recent daily deaths may be inflated, turns out later on the 77 yesterday day was 20. The BBC had an article on it and described how someone dying in car crash while testing positive this year will be a covid death in England.
When I posted about cases in Sweden as the actual reason for the list you go to say all these comparisons are flawed anyway. I replied back with hey guess what, these daily deaths you keep citing may be inflated but also asked openly how are other countries logging covid deaths currently.
UK's 65k deaths, 41k 47k officially or whatever the feck they change to has nothing to do with anything. I and you are talking this recent daily numbers, ie the 50-80. I just proposed the possibility of these daily numbers of recent weeks being problematic to use in your comparing.
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UK deaths today is 18 with England using counting the same and other UK countries.
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All the UK numbers are problematic, that’s the fecking point. They are so far off and have now changed methodology to make them more off ffs.
So the new methodology which is absolutely further off the truth now says 20 deaths for yesterday, I call bollocks, as does anyone with a half sceptical brain.
When France on the other hand, posted 17 today, I believe them.
So the new methodology which is absolutely further off the truth now says 20 deaths for yesterday, I call bollocks, as does anyone with a half sceptical brain.
When France on the other hand, posted 17 today, I believe them.
When I analyze the Economist's article, I see that countries like Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark.. provide reliable and consistent data.
On the other hand, the US, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Russia, Indonesia, the UK... communicate very underestimated low death tolls.
Absolutely. Which is why the UK red lighting certain countries is a source of great frustration on my part.
Acting like the data can be trusted for all countries including their own when we know they have the worst excess deaths in Europe and are crap at getting it right.
If they wanna trust data, trust the countries clearly doing it right.
Call me cynical but I can’t help but think that it stinks of the UK government doing a bit of whataboutism. “Yes we’ve been pretty shit, but look at this country we’re locking out because we have stuff under control”. Removing deaths when you’re missing 20,000 already also stinks of trying to minimise the UK response and death toll in comparison to the rest of Europe.
I'm probably more skeptical and posted excess data multiple times for UK and elsewhere throughout the pandemic of many months in this thread.Let's say that some people like me or @Regulus Arcturus Black are skeptical about the data (deaths, cases, past, current, future, etc.) provided by the UK Gvt or authorities.
Fair enough pal, I shouldn't really discuss the red light stuff because it infuriates me to my core. My family are missing out on seeing my daughter grow up, and she's missing out on spending time with them. I can't even see the light at the end of the tunnel on that score.
As I said previously, if my family were in a country with extremely low figures throughout this (Norway, Finland), it'd be tough but I'd of course accept and understand it. This is just fecking bollocks though and pisses me off more every day.
The fact that the UK response (along with the US) has been amongst the most inconsistent in the World doesn't help my bitterness.
Countries would be so much better off basing their shitty green light systems on "hospital admissions". Punishing countries for cases is gonna cause more fudging of the numbers I'm sure, I can't for a second imagine Greece allowing themselves to get rid-lighted; and Portugal's horrifically bad death reporting since the UK red-lighted them makes me very sceptical of trusting the majority of countries that differ so much from excess deaths.
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I have two thoughts on the UK changing the way deaths are defined.
1. If you’ve chosen a definition then stick with it. Even if it over or underestimates reality. These metrics aren’t a competition between countries (despite the evidence in this thread!) they’re a way for each country to measure the impact their measures are having on the virus on their own country. Moving the goalposts several months into the epidemic is fecking madness. Doing it at a time when they’re creeping up smacks of cynical manipulation of the data. Unless they’re retrospectively re-categorising all the deaths up until now? Which seems like a crazy waste of time and effort but at least will give them some proper data to work with.
2. The ECDC published surveillance definitions months ago. Any European country that chooses to use different definitions has some explaining to do to their citizens.
1. If you’ve chosen a definition then stick with it. Even if it over or underestimates reality. These metrics aren’t a competition between countries (despite the evidence in this thread!) they’re a way for each country to measure the impact their measures are having on the virus on their own country. Moving the goalposts several months into the epidemic is fecking madness. Doing it at a time when they’re creeping up smacks of cynical manipulation of the data. Unless they’re retrospectively re-categorising all the deaths up until now? Which seems like a crazy waste of time and effort but at least will give them some proper data to work with.
2. The ECDC published surveillance definitions months ago. Any European country that chooses to use different definitions has some explaining to do to their citizens.
Agreed Pogue, what baffles me more is that if you data says 45000 deaths and excess deaths are at 65000, why on Earth are you changing it down?
And I've just read Boris comments on France now:
And I've just read Boris comments on France now:
My blood is boiling, does this thick shit not realise that the danger in the UK isn't France, it's the fact that the UK still have massive community transmission? The "disease" isn't coming back in you bloody twerp, it never left.
France to be added to quarantine country list from 4am on Saturday
Edit: Malta & Netherlands added as well.
Edit: Malta & Netherlands added as well.
I have got to admit that I was really worried about when lockdown ended in North Wales but everything seems to be ok . It has been a good few weeks now and it is busier than it has ever been . There are loads of people everywhere, in fact it has never been this busy with a lot of people enjoying the good weather at home instead of abroad. Hotels, campsites and holiday homes are all fully booked and shops, restaurants, pubs and cafes are all jam packed with no masks needed in Wales . It must be good news for everyone and a sign that we are beating this now as there hasn`t been any second wave or big outbreak .
A few family members that are in the vulnerable group are still isolating and staying at home but everyone else are pretty much just carrying on and getting on with things.
A few family members that are in the vulnerable group are still isolating and staying at home but everyone else are pretty much just carrying on and getting on with things.
Oooooh that'll make the central banks happy, more loans and more unemployment please as the travel sector gets utterly fecked over again.
UK are on course to cross their own threshold in the next week. The threshold, 20 cases per 100,000 is fecking ludicrous and is going to continue causing complete mayhem.
Looking at the UK through British eyes, living in Sweden, it's just utter madness.
On the deaths counting thing
1. Yes the historic figures from PHE that the government quote are a massive underestimate, because the UK failed to test sufficiently early on, so those numbers miss a lot of early deaths. The ONS stats are a much better guide for historic deaths, and are in closer agreement with excess deaths, although not perfect.
2. On a day to day basis, telling the public there have been 100 deaths, when the real number is 20 or 30 is unhelpful fear mongering and resolving the issue with the daily figures is reasonable. From their own analysis the 28 day cut off, while consistent with other countries, does appear to undercount, so I believe they'll also be publishing a 60 day count which shows better agreement with death certificates. So countries with a 28 day cut off (Scotland, certainly, maybe others in Europe?) will have been systematically undercounting.
1. Yes the historic figures from PHE that the government quote are a massive underestimate, because the UK failed to test sufficiently early on, so those numbers miss a lot of early deaths. The ONS stats are a much better guide for historic deaths, and are in closer agreement with excess deaths, although not perfect.
2. On a day to day basis, telling the public there have been 100 deaths, when the real number is 20 or 30 is unhelpful fear mongering and resolving the issue with the daily figures is reasonable. From their own analysis the 28 day cut off, while consistent with other countries, does appear to undercount, so I believe they'll also be publishing a 60 day count which shows better agreement with death certificates. So countries with a 28 day cut off (Scotland, certainly, maybe others in Europe?) will have been systematically undercounting.
Do you really think so? In a population of sixty million people I don’t think 100 deaths becomes scary, while 20 would not. The only really scary thing about deaths is if they’re trending upwards.
Having said that, my last post was a bit silly. I doubt there’s anything underhand going on here and can see why they might want to better align their definition with other countries.
Does anyone know why the timeframe is needed anyway? Why doesn’t everyone use the ECDC definition? I can think of plenty of scenarios where someone dies several weeks after a covid diagnosis which is clearly down to the virus vs someone dying very quickly from something which is obviously unrelated.
People spend a large part of their life at work. Those who have especially risky jobs, like medical workers and meatpackers,, are over-represented in the data. So why aren't early childhood staff under-represented in the data?
It may be that the risk of each individual person to person contact is lower (on average since most are with very young kids) but there are far more indivudual contacts, so the two factors balance each other out (as one small study suggested). Whatever it is it needs explaining as I think we are making decisions about schools and kids and teachers based on assumptions that are likely incorrect to some degree.
This is based on actuarial modelling and primary teachers are at twice the risk of secondary teachers and childcare workers slightly more at risk again https://www.actuaries.digital/2020/06/03/how-exposed-is-your-occupation-to-covid-19/
And infections are decimating early childhood staff in places like Texas https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html
The narrative is wrong and it needs proper investigation.
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What’s the story with U.K. tracking app? Is it still fecked?
Masks aren't mandatory in shops in Wales so very few people wear them . I had a phone call off my doctor on Wednesday to go to the doctors surgery on Monday as they take my bloods to check my b12 , I asked if I needed a mask and they said its up to you as they don't wear them. Everything is pretty normal here , except there are more visitors than ever so everywhere is packed.
New (Google/Apple API based) version has just gone on trial.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53765240
They're asking for changes in the API (to deliver Bluetooth signal strength) to reduce false alarms and missed contacts.
France added to the list
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53773914
Only a matter of time as cases are 2.5k. No doubt they will return the favour.
Like I posted before, Netherlands cases are actually really high for 17 million and can see why they will be.
Would be interesting to know the cutoff point of other EU countries or the criteria.
Again before anyone spills their coffee, the 65k excess deaths are set in stone, done and dusted, it's about in the last week or so. People raising the eyebrow at how UK still has 50-80 deaths, well we got the answer.
Deaths are now at average levels, people are dying as they would normally of other causes, yet England until the other day was counting those who tested positive months ago and dying of anything, while Scotland Wales just count within the last 28 days.
28 days seems a little short, I would say 40 and I don't see why someone who has clearly struggled with the virus for a few months and died can't be added in. I doubt many European countries in the past month were doing the English way of including anyone who tested positive this year dying of completely unrelated causes. England will have 50-80 a day for ages counting like this. The government are fumbling all the way through this.
I can only hope UK can at least avoid a rise to 2-3k cases and do something right for once.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53773914
Only a matter of time as cases are 2.5k. No doubt they will return the favour.
Like I posted before, Netherlands cases are actually really high for 17 million and can see why they will be.
Would be interesting to know the cutoff point of other EU countries or the criteria.
Again before anyone spills their coffee, the 65k excess deaths are set in stone, done and dusted, it's about in the last week or so. People raising the eyebrow at how UK still has 50-80 deaths, well we got the answer.
Deaths are now at average levels, people are dying as they would normally of other causes, yet England until the other day was counting those who tested positive months ago and dying of anything, while Scotland Wales just count within the last 28 days.
28 days seems a little short, I would say 40 and I don't see why someone who has clearly struggled with the virus for a few months and died can't be added in. I doubt many European countries in the past month were doing the English way of including anyone who tested positive this year dying of completely unrelated causes. England will have 50-80 a day for ages counting like this. The government are fumbling all the way through this.
I can only hope UK can at least avoid a rise to 2-3k cases and do something right for once.
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Sure, they will. Lose-lose outcomes.
Brutal decision recommended by the the worst-hit European country by a mile.
Also, the signal is very bad: it just means "we, the UK, are not in a position to open our country while managing the Covid-19. We are still overwhelmed..."
Wow. Are the case numbers in Wales staying low despite all of this?
I think it's more the feeling that the number of deaths aren't decreasing that could be an issue. There's a good comparison in this tweet where the old method shows deaths starting to flatline, while the more accurate measures show a consistent decline.
On the ECDC definition, that sounds like the definition that the ONS use, but that has a lag because of the time taken for death registrations, so a simpler measure for quicker reporting seems useful.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Apparently so, there are people from all over the uk holidaying here especially the North west of England and no one is socially distancing or wearing masks , it is busier than ever. Lots of elderly locals are not going out as they are scared as the tourists are in holiday mode . My elderly in laws haven't been out since March as he has Alzheimer's and it is impossible trying to distance him as it is just so busy, but we are staying cautious for now. I am just amazed that there has been no outbreaks and if there is the contact tracing will be impossible as it is people from all over the UK.
That doesn’t really sound sustainable. Despite everything I’ve said in the masks thread, I wouldn’t worry too much about the lack of masks. I think their upside is being overstated. They might help a bit and they’re such a trivial inconvenience it makes sense that everyone wears them but I don’t think they make a huge difference, one way or another. What definitely does sound problematic is pubs and restaurants jam packed full of people from all over the UK. I don’t see how that can carry on without some fairly major outbreaks over the next few weeks.
Agreed. Pubs especially feel like the perfect environment.
I totally agree with you, the pubs, shops and cafes situation is bad and also a lot of outdoor areas have very limited if any public conveniences so they are either in a right mess or people are just shitting and pissing where ever they can . I feel for the people having to clean up after them . I will be very surprised if we don`t have an outbreak here and if we do we will be in trouble as Bangor hospital serves a huge area and it isn`t the best equipped .
They've been open a while now, and you'd expect significant outbreaks by now if pubs & restaurants were a major issue, even with the warmer weather and incentives to eat out.
From my own experience, largely restaurants have opened with distancing in place and it works. Pubs for me have been all table booked, inside has sufficient distancing measures, and the ones with outside space is the obvious recommended options. I've not seen any yet which are 'jam packed' other than a couple on the news and couldn't be further from my own experience.
There will always be exceptions to the current levels, such as the bar in Aberdeen and the one in Stone. However that to me is more a landlord issue than an industry issue. They're the problematic ones, and it's a discussion about their license to trade being revoked.
When the weather gets colder and indoors is the only option, then I imagine a different approach will be needed. However, the activity rather than the location seems to be more of the issue for people, from my own experience it's no different measures to what the supermarkets were doing at the height of the pandemic (height in terms of number of cases), and we didn't have any major outbreaks in those locations.
France throwing their toys out of the pram over the quarantine list.
I don't get why there is still discussion about number of deaths in each country. It's been established months ago that every country counts in different ways. Belgium is still one of the worst in the world per capita, despite 30+ countries worldwide having a ton more infections. And we've been testing a lot lately.
Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Iraq, Philippines, Indonesia all are massive countries, have 5-10 times the number of infections and only a fraction of deaths compared to Belgium. Unless we are doing something very wrong here, I simply can't believe the numbers coming from certain countries.
Edit: yeah, I'm comparing too
Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Iraq, Philippines, Indonesia all are massive countries, have 5-10 times the number of infections and only a fraction of deaths compared to Belgium. Unless we are doing something very wrong here, I simply can't believe the numbers coming from certain countries.
Edit: yeah, I'm comparing too
So if there are many more people “packed”, would you not wear a mask?
Netherlands have said they won't retaliate with emotions. They'll probably just do the same when UK is around the 2000-3000 cases per day mark.
Just goes to show that other nations besides the UK are led by clueless imbeciles