SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Penna]

It is the same in North Wales, masks aren`t mandatory so there are people here from all over the UK and no one is wearing a mask as everyone has got their holiday heads on , shops , pubs , cafes full of people with no masks. It has been like this for a few weeks now and so far we have had no problems, I am hoping that is a good sign. I avoid the crowded areas and most elderly locals stay away too which is quite sad. It is a scary thought if there is a problem though as it is people from all over the UK.

You're absolutely right about that "holiday heads" thing, certainly here where Italians will have been wearing masks in their own Comunes. They come to urs and it's as if it doesn't apply. I know it's hot, I know they're on holiday but I don't care, we have loads of very old people here and they need protecting.

 

[Virgil]

Why don’t you travel to the Uk anyway and self isolate when you get there? It doesn’t sound very rigorously enforced and if you stick within a family “bubble” when you get to the UK then you’re not doing anything very morally wrong if you see your family.

Bloody hell. So the Cummings argument is OK then providing of course your name is not Cummings. No wonder Europe will never get this under control until such time as there is a vaccine. Everything will be OK if we bend the rules but only by a little bit or because the tossers who make the rules cannot actually enforce them.

 

[djembatheking]

You're absolutely right about that "holiday heads" thing, certainly here where Italians will have been wearing masks in their own Comunes. They come to urs and it's as if it doesn't apply. I know it's hot, I know they're on holiday but I don't care, we have loads of very old people here and they need protecting.

The sad thing is you just have to get used to it as there are so many people here. My father in law is 80 and has alzheimers so has not been anywhere with my mother in law. He can`t socially distance because he forgets and gets ratty if you keep telling him . Fortunately they live in a very rural village and we are close so we visit daily and sit outside as the weather has been good but I also know a few other elderly people that won`t go to the local shops as they are so packed and they become very isolated . All you can do is look after yourself and those around you as everyone has different circumstances .
Seeing the amount of people packed in shops , pubs , cafes and indoor spaces not wearing masks and not having any outbreaks does give me hope that things are getting better.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Bloody hell. So the Cummings argument is OK then providing of course your name is not Cummings. No wonder Europe will never get this under control until such time as there is a vaccine. Everything will be OK if we bend the rules but only by a little bit or because the tossers who make the rules cannot actually enforce them.

Harsh that, the tossers who make the rules should be more like Ze Germans and then you wouldn’t have the same issues. People, including the tossers who make the rules bend and break them because the rules are crap and long term simply will be ignored.
I’d pay for my family to have a Covid test at Gatwick, the other option looking likely as the UK, Ireland & everyone else goes over 20 cases per 100,000 is not seeing my family for over a year and my daughter barely knowing who the feck they are when we finally can come home.
Like everything in this, the UK are making it so that people bend the rules cause the peeps in charge are utterly incompetent.
People from France, Sweden, Holland are no more of a risk to the UK on a visit than every fecker currently in the UK. The UK are acting like you’re NZ when you’ve clearly got widespread community transmission and it’s increasing week by week.

 

[redshaw]

Italy are doing well with cases for a country of 60 million and big tourist attraction, only a slight uptick in August and 2 1/2 months of low case numbers.

 

[fergosaurus]

I would pay to see that.
And you are absolutely right. Wearing a face covering in such places is the law.
But there are always idiots who think that laws apply to other people but it is perfectly ok for them to break them.
I have been on a number of buses. Some drivers tell the travellers they should be wearing one while others don't.
You get the usual halfwits who take them off after boarding.
The threat of a £100 fine is naive in the extreme.

I was at a (very small) pharmacy the other day and some woman came in without a mask. The pharmacist asked her if she could wear a mask next time and she kicked off about how she's exempt etc. Then she was asked if she had an exemption card to which she replied she didn't need to prove anything and that they should know she's exempt because of the medication she's on. To which the pharmacist responded saying how could she keep track of her meds because she's on that many. Rekt.

 

[McGrathsipan]

200 cases in Ireland today. This seems to be getting away from us far quicker than most other countries. Average daily cases seem to be doubling every week.

People are sick and tired of this virus.
Weve got no solid data.
Who and where are they that are picking the virus up. Why is nobody dying anymore from it.

Im at the stage now whwre im starting to not care. I wont put anyone in danger but how long are we meant to hide from it. Nobody has a fecking clue and certainly not the Gov.

The are only short of arranging house parties by leaving pubs shut. At least there some control in pubs.

 

[Wibble]

Seeing the amount of people packed in shops , pubs , cafes and indoor spaces not wearing masks and not having any outbreaks does give me hope that things are getting better.

Aren't infections back over 1000 a day in the UK?

 

[Wibble]

Im at the stage now whwre im starting to not care. I wont put anyone in danger but how long are we meant to hide from it. Nobody has a fecking clue and certainly not the Gov.

Until a vaccine arrives, most likely in late 2020 or first half of 2021, although it wouldn't take much to push that out 6 months. I'd say the chances of there being no vaccine has now reduced to close to zero.

 

[Hound Dog]

Until a vaccine arrives, most likely in late 2020 or first half of 2021, although it wouldn't take much to push that out 6 months. I'd say the chances of there being no vaccine has now reduced to close to zero.

A poster has asked a few pages back to no response and I will now repeat his question, what exactly will change qhen the vaccine arrives, given that it is likely to be 60-70% effective?

 

[christy87]

People are sick and tired of this virus.
Weve got no solid data.
Who and where are they that are picking the virus up. Why is nobody dying anymore from it.

Im at the stage now whwre im starting to not care. I wont put anyone in danger but how long are we meant to hide from it. Nobody has a fecking clue and certainly not the Gov.

The are only short of arranging house parties by leaving pubs shut. At least there some control in pubs.

First Dublin should be locked down if it’s 20 per 100 thousand in rural Ireland it should be less than that for urban Ireland especially in a densely populated place like Dublin,

which would allow rural Ireland to reopen pubs and what not, for me the pubs should be open with rules in place instead of everyone going to the same pubs, spread the population amongst the pubs, also some pubs could introduce an age limit like we all know a few pubs that are old man pubs let them be old man pubs instead of them mixing with the youth.

if the death rate was still high it would be Seriously worrying, my guess is they have found ways of controlling the virus once it’s detected early enough, I hope

 

[Wibble]

A poster has asked a few pages back to no response and I will now repeat his question, what exactly will change qhen the vaccine arrives, given that it is likely to be 60-70% effective?

Why would a vaccine be only 60-70% effective?

Routine childhood vaccinations are 85-98% effective and adult vaccination is usually at the upper end if you aren't immune compromised.

So as long as we get a high enough % of people vaccinated we will get herd immunity (R below 1).

The challenge probably won't be so much the effectiveness of a vaccine as much as making sure enough of the world's population is vaccinated.

 

[Maluco]

A poster has asked a few pages back to no response and I will now repeat his question, what exactly will change qhen the vaccine arrives, given that it is likely to be 60-70% effective?

Even if that low figure was true, think about it, if 7/10 of every person you interact with can’t give you the virus, then it doesn’t have as many hosts and can’t spread as quickly.

Chances are though, as @Wibble said above, that the percentage will probably be higher. The more that get vaccinated, the more secure every individual will be.

 

[Virgil]

Harsh that, the tossers who make the rules should be more like Ze Germans and then you wouldn’t have the same issues. People, including the tossers who make the rules bend and break them because the rules are crap and long term simply will be ignored.
I’d pay for my family to have a Covid test at Gatwick, the other option looking likely as the UK, Ireland & everyone else goes over 20 cases per 100,000 is not seeing my family for over a year and my daughter barely knowing who the feck they are when we finally can come home.
Like everything in this, the UK are making it so that people bend the rules cause the peeps in charge are utterly incompetent.
People from France, Sweden, Holland are no more of a risk to the UK on a visit than every fecker currently in the UK. The UK are acting like you’re NZ when you’ve clearly got widespread community transmission and it’s increasing week by week.

Whilst I am not unsympathetic to your situation having to isolate for two weeks to visit the U.K. is not harsh. Harsh is not being able to visit and sit with your loved ones whilst they were dying. Harsh is not being able to say goodbye to them with a normal funeral. Harsh Is being vulnerable, living in an apartment without a garden and having to stay inside for months. Harsh was being a hospital worker having to contend with long hours in appalling conditions In an effort to keep patients alive. Harsh is having serious illness treatment put on hold. Harsh is being made redundant because your place of work has to remain closed.

Now things are easing slowly but only so long as we remain on top of this awful disease so you will have to forgive me for reckoning that washing of hands, wearing a mask, maintaining social distance and self isolating for 14 days where necessary is nowhere near harsh.

 

[Mb194dc]

Why would a vaccine be only 60-70% effective?

Routine childhood vaccinations are 85-98% effective and adult vaccination is usually at the upper end if you aren't immune compromised.

So as long as we get a high enough % of people vaccinated we will get herd immunity (R below 1).

The challenge probably won't be so much the effectiveness of a vaccine as much as making sure enough of the world's population is vaccinated.

Sars cov 2 is most likely not vaccinable at all, the reason being that it's extremely mild in almost all cases so the body doesn't maintain immunity for more than a couple of months. So vaccination would need to be topped up continually.

It's also quite mutable and once you pressure it's existence with a vaccine, mutations that can get around said vaccine will then still thrive. Routine vaccinations for DNA viruses can't be compared to vaccination for an RNA corona virus like sars cov 2.

My view is it should be viewed as "new flu", (also posted way up the thread) no way of getting rid of it now just like influenza. Numbers are telling us it's actually less virile in younger age groups than influenza is. So there are some positives.

 

[Striker10]

My local Asda still has loads of folk shopping without masks on, probably because Asda only "encourages" the use of them. Seeing as it's up to the police to handle, according to them, I might walk in next time smoking a cigarette with my willy hanging out. Same thing innit?

Not really.

 

[Striker10]

Why would a vaccine be only 60-70% effective? They could also 90% effective or more.

Routine childhood vaccinations are 85-98% effective and adult vaccination is usually at the upper end if you aren't immune compromised.

So as long as we get a high enough % of people vaccinated we will get herd immunity (R below 1).

The challenge probably won't be so much the effectiveness of a vaccine as much as making sure enough of the world's population is vaccinated.

Any vaccine would be rushed and various trials skipped over. Of course you have to give people the option also. How long would a normal vaccine take to develop with zero defects/side effects?...People should actually ask why governments don't control the money system first. If they did, the economy would not be destroyed and we wouldn't have to be in this situation. It gets to the point, people dictate to others and that's unfortunate but if people want to take a vaccine that's rushed, then that's their choice

No amount of stats will tell me and others what we don't already know.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Whilst I am not unsympathetic to your situation having to isolate for two weeks to visit the U.K. is not harsh. Harsh is not being able to visit and sit with your loved ones whilst they were dying. Harsh is not being able to say goodbye to them with a normal funeral. Harsh Is being vulnerable, living in an apartment without a garden and having to stay inside for months. Harsh was being a hospital worker having to contend with long hours in appalling conditions In an effort to keep patients alive. Harsh is having serious illness treatment put on hold. Harsh is being made redundant because your place of work has to remain closed.

Now things are easing slowly but only so long as we remain on top of this awful disease so you will have to forgive me for reckoning that washing of hands, wearing a mask, maintaining social distance and self isolating for 14 days where necessary is nowhere near harsh.

What you’re still not understanding is that a person from France, Holland or Sweden is no more of a risk to you than a guy from Blackburn.
It’s utter nonsensical.

If the UK had 50 cases a day I’d get it, but you have widespread community transmission. That’s been the problem with the UK, absolute zero consistency in it’s approach, putting in rules now that would help countries like, Norway, New Zealand or South Korea whilst you have widespread transmission is just counter productive and quite frankly, stupid.
The UK inconsistent approach likely why we still have the worsr increased mortality rate in Europe.

I’ll say it again, the UK could slam shut all borders now and it’d make diddly squat of difference.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Why would a vaccine be only 60-70% effective? They could also 90% effective or more.

Routine childhood vaccinations are 85-98% effective and adult vaccination is usually at the upper end if you aren't immune compromised.

So as long as we get a high enough % of people vaccinated we will get herd immunity (R below 1).

The challenge probably won't be so much the effectiveness of a vaccine as much as making sure enough of the world's population is vaccinated.

The threshold for regulatory approval is likely to be 50% effectiveness. That’s the case in China anyway. And they claim this in line with WHO/FDA criteria. The gold standard they’re shooting for is just 70% efficacy.

I think you’re being wildly optimistic talking about an efficacy at the upper end of 85-98%. Certainly with the earlier, rushed out vaccines. Maybe in another 5-10 years that could be possible. And the most vulnerable (i.e. the elderly) typically have the worst response.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

People are sick and tired of this virus.
Weve got no solid data.
Who and where are they that are picking the virus up. Why is nobody dying anymore from it.

Im at the stage now whwre im starting to not care. I wont put anyone in danger but how long are we meant to hide from it. Nobody has a fecking clue and certainly not the Gov.

The are only short of arranging house parties by leaving pubs shut. At least there some control in pubs.

Of the cases notified today, 81 are based in Kildare, 56 in Dublin, 13 in Tipperary, 8 in Limerick, 6 Laois, 6 in Galway, 5 in Kilkenny, and 5 in Meath.

The other 20 cases were confirmed in Carlow, Clare, Cork, Donegal, Louth, Mayo, Offaly, Roscommon, Waterford, Wicklow.

68 cases are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case, while 25 cases have been identified as community transmission.

Meanwhile, 103 of the cases are in men and 96 are women, while 68% are under 45 years of age.

This information is in all the press releases. How much more information do you need?

Death rate has dropped very close to zero because it’s mostly young people getting infected. Obviously, if cases keep rising then we’ll start to see elderly/vulnerable people getting sick too and deaths will rise again. The increase in deaths always lags a few weeks behind the increase in cases.

 

[djembatheking]

Aren't infections back over 1000 a day in the UK?

Apparently so, but deaths and hospital cases are really low as the elderly and vulnerable are isolating and the cases are younger healthier people so are fighting it off. There are loads of people getting on with their lives where I live , mostly young families on holiday with there kids. At first it was worrying but now it is quite reassuring as there are very few cases. In fact there were no new cases in Anglesey yesterday and as I have said shops, cafes and pubs are packed with maskless people.

 

[McGrathsipan]

This information is in all the press releases. How much more information do you need?

Death rate has dropped very close to zero because it’s mostly young people getting infected. Obviously, if cases keep rising then we’ll start to see elderly/vulnerable people getting sick too and deaths will rise again. The increase in deaths always lags a few weeks behind the increase in cases.

That information is vague. What suburbs/towns/villages?
They are not telling us the whole story about exactly where people are getting it.
County Meath is massive. Where are the cases ? I'd like to know if they are where I l live and I'm especially interested in the places where community transmission is happening. The info we are getting is just headline info.

If the only answer to increase cases is lockdown after lock down were in for years of this.

 

[Wibble]

Sars cov 2 is most likely not vaccinable at all, the reason being that it's extremely mild in almost all cases so the body doesn't maintain immunity for more than a couple of months. So vaccination would need to be topped up continually.

A vaccine isn't a given but I think you are being far too negative.

We know that from natural infections detectable antibodies are often only findable for a few months but a) that says nothing about T-cells, b) the immune response from a vaccine is likely to be much stronger (and nothing like the immune response in asymptomatic natural infections) and c) the lack of significant numbers of reinfection suggests some immunity is happening.

If a vaccine needs topping up annually that is fine.

We also do have vaccines for animal coronaviruses so it is dooable.

It's also quite mutable and once you pressure it's existence with a vaccine, mutations that can get around said vaccine will then still thrive. Routine vaccinations for DNA viruses can't be compared to vaccination for an RNA corona virus like sars cov 2.

RNA viruses can of course produce rapid mutations due to the nature of RNA reproduction but also due to their nature so many of these are deleterious and unrepairable, so don't usually result in a rapid changes in the infectious strain. This seems to be the case with SARS-CoV-2 to date.

Vaccination could well produce a different strain due to selection pressure but the chances are that if this happens it would be less harmful, as a more harmful strain would kill the host too quickly to proliferate as well as the current strain.

My view is it should be viewed as "new flu", (also posted way up the thread) no way of getting rid of it now just like influenza. Numbers are telling us it's actually less virile in younger age groups than influenza is. So there are some positives.

If it were we wouldn't be having this conversation. And why do only young people matter? It is far more deadly and far more harmful to those who recover, which is why dismissing it as just another flu is a mistake, especially as most think a bad cold is the same as flu.

Nothing is certain (wouldn't that be nice?) but I take encouragement from informed opinions like this https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ib...19-vaccine-very-very-likely-within-year-49874

 

[Stack]

I think a vaccine even if only 60% effective, combined with the quickly evolving in improvements in treating those infected and then adding effective contact tracing and we could see the virus under control within a year.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That information is vague. What suburbs/towns/villages?
They are not telling us the whole story about exactly where people are getting it.
County Meath is massive. Where are the cases ? I'd like to know if they are where I l live and I'm especially interested in the places where community transmission is happening. The info we are getting is just headline info.

If the only answer to increase cases is lockdown after lock down were in for years of this.

I think they don’t want to give the sort of detail you’re looking for in case people who are in towns/villages that don’t get mentioned get a false sense of security. Which is fair enough really. Everybody in the country has to keep behaving as though the virus is everywhere.

I do get the way you’re feeling jaded by it all. I am too. It’s a fecking grind, it really is. But all we can do is keep doing our best. And everyone needs to do what they can. I don’t think belly-aching about how we’re being kept in the dark is helpful. Just winds people up more than they are already.

 

[Wibble]

The threshold for regulatory approval is likely to be 50% effectiveness. That’s the case in China anyway. And they claim this in line with WHO/FDA criteria. The gold standard they’re shooting for is just 70% efficacy.

I think you’re being wildly optimistic talking about an efficacy at the upper end of 85-98%. Certainly with the earlier, rushed out vaccines. Maybe in another 5-10 years that could be possible. And the most vulnerable (i.e. the elderly) typically have the worst response.

The data coming out of the trials is showing far better than 70%. The Oxford trials produced 100% results with 2 doses.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The data coming out of the trials is showing far better than 70%

We have precisely zero efficacy data from clinical trials. The ability to generate antibodies does not guarantee that those antibodies prevent disease. That’s why developing vaccines is difficult and usually takes many years.

 

[africanspur]

The data coming out of the trials is showing far better than 70%. The Oxford trials produced 100% results with 2 doses.

The data coming out of trials is incredibly early. There's a reason most clinical trials, especially for vaccines, take such a long time. We're currently talking about releasing a vaccine within 1-1.5 years when our previous record as a species stands I believe at 4-5 years.

I hope (and think) we will have some kind of vaccine soonish but let's not jump ahead of ourselves here.

 

[Wibble]

Any vaccine would be rushed and various trials skipped over.

No. Russia's vaccine may be rushed but the others are adhering to nornal testing regines.

Of course you have to give people the option also. How long would a normal vaccine take to develop with zero defects/side effects?...

Time isn't relevant as normal testing is occuring.

People should actually ask why governments don't control the money system first. If they did, the economy would not be destroyed and we wouldn't have to be in this situation.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

It gets to the point, people dictate to others and that's unfortunate but if people want to take a vaccine that's rushed, then that's their choice

No amount of stats will tell me and others what we don't already know.

What?

 

[Wibble]

The data coming out of trials is incredibly early. There's a reason most clinical trials, especially for vaccines, take such a long time. We're currently talking about releasing a vaccine within 1-1.5 years when our previous record as a species stands I believe at 4-5 years.

I hope (and think) we will have some kind of vaccine soonish but let's not jump ahead of ourselves here.

It is but still incredibly promising

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It is but still incredibly promising

“Incredibly promising” pre-clinical/early phase data often means feck all when it comes to the big phase 3 trials you need to get a treatment approved. I work in this industry. I see this happen all the time.

Here’s a good article on vaccine development for covid. Note the final paragraph:

For all the uncertainties that remain ahead for a COVID-19 vaccine, several experts were willing to make one prediction. “I think the question that is easy to answer is, ‘Is this virus going to go away?’ And the answer to that is, ‘No,’” says Karron, the vaccine expert at Johns Hopkins. The virus is already too widespread. A vaccine could still mitigate severe cases; it could make COVID-19 easier to live with. The virus is likely here to stay, but eventually, the pandemic will end.

 

[Wibble]

“Incredibly promising” pre-clinical/early phase data often means feck all when it comes to the big phase 3 trials you need to get a treatment approved. I work in this industry. I see this happen all the time.

Here’s a good article on vaccine development for covid. Note the final paragraph:

I'm fully aware of the various permutations but given the huge number of different vaccines being developed, using a large range different approaches, with no failures to date I thibk we are close to certain to have 1 or more highly effective vaccines by 2021. Vaccine development has improved so much in recent years as well - more reason to hope. 6 months ago I thought it was a maybe but now I'm far far more optimistic.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'm fully aware of the various permutations but given the huge number of different vaccines being developed, using a large range different approaches, with no failures to date I thibk we are close to certain to have 1 or more highly effective vaccines by 2021. Vaccine development has improved so much in recent years as well - more reason to hope. 6 months ago I thought it was a maybe but now I'm far far more optimistic.

Well your certainty isn’t matched by the regulators, in China or the US, as per my previous post. Hence they’re willing to approve a vaccine that has just 50% efficacy. I’m genuinely struggling to understand the basis for your confidence here. Do you have any links to opinions from experts who would be as bullish as you are about this?

 

[Hound Dog]

“Incredibly promising” pre-clinical/early phase data often means feck all when it comes to the big phase 3 trials you need to get a treatment approved. I work in this industry. I see this happen all the time.

Here’s a good article on vaccine development for covid. Note the final paragraph:

Could you please shed some light on what the "pandemic will end" statement is based on.

If there were no lockdowns, I would understand.

Given the measures in place to slow the spread and the short-lived immunity, this seems like it will keep spreading forever at pretty much the same pace.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Could you please shed some light on what the "pandemic will end" statement is based on.

If there were no lockdowns, I would understand.

Given the measures in place to slow the spread and the short-lived immunity, this seems like it will keep spreading forever at pretty much the same pace.

We don’t know the immunity is short lived. It’s also possible (arguably likely) that even if you’re not immune the second and subsequent infections will be less severe than the first. This virus has fecked us over because it’s novel. Over time we will adapt to the virus and the virus will adapt to us. Plus we’ll develop better treatments and strategies to protect the vulnerable. The first year or two of this pandemic were always going to be the worst.

 

[africanspur]

Could you please shed some light on what the "pandemic will end" statement is based on.

If there were no lockdowns, I would understand.

Given the measures in place to slow the spread and the short-lived immunity, this seems like it will keep spreading forever at pretty much the same pace.

Eventually every pandemic ends. Whether the virus mutates, we change our habits to live with it, we develop treatments or vaccines, people start to develop natural immunity or it simply kills the people its going to kill (as horrible as that sounds), no pandemic lasts forever.

We already have some treatments which are shown to work which we didn't have before, mask wearing and social distancing are far more widespread (in most countries) and the public health infrastructure in most countries will now be better set up to track outbreaks in a way they perhaps weren't ready for initially.

 

[11101]

Could you please shed some light on what the "pandemic will end" statement is based on.

If there were no lockdowns, I would understand.

Given the measures in place to slow the spread and the short-lived immunity, this seems like it will keep spreading forever at pretty much the same pace.

It has already slowed down significantly from those first few months.

 

[Penna]

Italian cases creeping up, largely due to returning holidaymakers from other countries. The government has said people returning or coming into Italy from Spain, Croatia, Greece and Malta will be tested.

 

[redshaw]

UK 5 deaths and 1040 cases.

 

[Ecstatic]

The only suitable indicator to assess the spreading of covid is the number of deaths it caused