SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[McGrathsipan]

The only suitable indicator to assess the spreading of virus is the number of deaths.

Yeah the number of deaths caused only by the virus!

 

[Maagge]

The only suitable indicator to assess the spreading of virus is the number of deaths.

Wait, what if it isn't a lethal virus?

 

[Ecstatic]

Edited post, gents

 

[hmchan]

Italian cases creeping up, largely due to returning holidaymakers from other countries. The government has said people returning or coming into Italy from Spain, Croatia, Greece and Malta will be tested.

This is unbelievable.

 

[Stack]

It has already slowed down significantly from those first few months.

The pandemic is still growing.

 

[Wibble]

The pandemic is still growing.

Reopening schools a "massive driver of infection", with data from the states supporting that statement.

 

[11101]

The pandemic is still growing.

At a much slower rate second time round.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Reopening schools a "massive driver of infection", with data from the states supporting that statement.

The states definition of “schools” and “children” includes young adults in their 20s, so that’s hardly surprising.

 

[Wibble]

The states definition of “schools” and “children” includes young adults in their 20s, so that’s hardly surprising.

So do most places. Infections in the U9's in Australia are still 50% of the older age groups, which is a lot of infected kids, so still a major source of infection. U9's may get infected less and suffer far less themselves but the viral load of those who are infected seem to be the same or simialr, so there is no reason to believe that adults and older kids won't be infected by U9's with the virus.

 

[JPRouve]

So do most places. Infections in the U9's in Australia are still 50% of the older age groups, which is a lot of infected kids, so still a major source of infection. U9's may get infected less and suffer far less themselves but the viral load of those who are infected seem to be the same or simialr, so there is no reason to believe that adults and older kids won't be infected by U9's with the virus.

What you say has been known for a while but for some reason there is still a lot of push back, I don't really get why?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So do most places. Infections in the U9's in Australia are still 50% of the older age groups, which is a lot of infected kids, so still a major source of infection. U9's may get infected less and suffer far less themselves but the viral load of those who are infected seem to be the same or simialr, so there is no reason to believe that adults and older kids won't be infected by U9's with the virus.

I don’t think anyone is claiming that? The consensus seems to be that, in general, younger children are less likely to become infected and less likely to pass the virus on. Nobody is saying they’re immune or never pass it on. From a PH perspective this is the basis for the argument that re-opening primary schools a net positive for society. The data coming out of Sweden/Denmark etc seems to support this idea.

 

[Wibble]

Net positive or just slightly less bad?

And the general narrative that kids aren't a risk is very widespread, so people are saying this in effect.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Net positive or just less bad?

Every decision in this pandemic is about less bad! If you care about literally nothing else other than the lowest possible number of covid cases then you weld everyone’s front door shut. Problem solved. In the real world, it’s about balancing risks and benefits to society. And getting young kids back to school is seen my most experts as a benefit to society which is worth the risk, based on the evidence coming out of countries that already took this step.

 

[Penna]

This is unbelievable.

They've also shut down all night clubs and dance halls. There were fewer new cases yesterday, but it's been a national holiday weekend so some of that may be due to reporting.

 

[Wibble]

Every decision in this pandemic is about less bad! If you care about literally nothing else other than the lowest possible number of covid cases then you weld everyone’s front door shut. Problem solved. In the real world, it’s about balancing risks and benefits to society. And getting young kids back to school is seen my most experts as a benefit to society which is worth the risk, based on the evidence coming out of countries that already took this step.

And I think we are getting it horribly wrong when it comes to balancing the risk in schools. I think most countries are getting their balancing wrong. Very wrong in most cases.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

And I think we are getting it horribly wrong when it comes to balancing the risk in schools. I think most countries are getting their balancing wrong. Very wrong in most cases.

So what do you think would be the right thing to do? Another year out of school for all kids?

 

[Sarni]

Italian cases creeping up, largely due to returning holidaymakers from other countries. The government has said people returning or coming into Italy from Spain, Croatia, Greece and Malta will be tested.

I'm going to Sardinia in 9 days. Getting some doubts whether that's going to be feasible.

 

[hmchan]

And I think we are getting it horribly wrong when it comes to balancing the risk in schools. I think most countries are getting their balancing wrong. Very wrong in most cases.

I'm no expert but tbh I see very few benefits letting young kids back to school, especially when we're talking about U9. They don't have a strict curriculum to follow and they don't have to take open exams. Maybe the risk is minimal but there's no reason to take.

In Hong Kong we did the exact opposite. We first resumed the open exams (~18 yo), then F.3 -F.5 resumed classes (~15-17 yo), followed by P.4-F. 2 (~10-14 yo) and the last one was K.3-P.3 (~6-9 yo). I can't say this is definitely the right thing to do but it makes more sense to me.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Puts Trump’s claims about testing into perspective. These are shocking stats. Published case numbers clearly only the tip of the iceberg.

 

[djembatheking]

Case numbers seem to be rising in a lot of places but hospitalizations and deaths are staying low even though there is now far more movement of people. Anglesey has got thousands of visitors with people mixing from all over the UK but there was only one positive case last week. Surely this suggests that we are doing something right.

 

[lynchie]

I'm no expert but tbh I see very few benefits letting young kids back to school, especially when we're talking about U9. They don't have a strict curriculum to follow and they don't have to take open exams. Maybe the risk is minimal but there's no reason to take.

In Hong Kong we did the exact opposite. We first resumed the open exams (~18 yo), then F.3 -F.5 resumed classes (~15-17 yo), followed by P.4-F. 2 (~10-14 yo) and the last one was K.3-P.3 (~6-9 yo). I can't say this is definitely the right thing to do but it makes more sense to me.

You seem to be thinking that the only value to children of going to school is to take exams. There are enormous benefits to children of being in school, and I would suggest especially younger children, who need that interaction to develop both socially and to develop good habits for learning. Keeping them out of school because there's not zero chance of them becoming infected, particularly when the prevalence in most of the UK is very low, seems vindictive.

 

[Kazi]

Guys, when do you realistically think France will be taken off of the quarantine list

 

[Maluco]

Do we think that lower death numbers exclusively means that a younger population are getting it, or could we be seeing what often happens with coronaviruses, that the less lethal strains often become the dominant, most virulent?

A possibility or no?

 

[NinjaFletch]

Guys, when do you realistically think France will be taken off of the quarantine list

Third hand rumour, but I was told not to expect it to happen for at least a month if not longer.

 

[RK]

Do we think that lower death numbers exclusively means that a younger population are getting it, or could we be seeing what often happens with coronaviruses, that the less lethal strains often become the dominant, most virulent?

A possibility or no?

It's an interesting question that we can probably only speculate on right now. Personally I'd be keen to know if there's been any measurable change in viral load in positive cases over the European summer. I'd also hope that all countries are doing a better job of looking after care homes by now (so like you say it's younger people being infected).

 

[Stookie]

I honestly don’t understand anyone booking a holiday abroad at the moment. There’s so much that could go wrong. Risk of Quarantine, risk of it getting cancelled, risk of losing money etc etc. Why would you? Fair enough for those who already had them booked pre Covid and could potentially lose money.

 

[Kazi]

I honestly don’t understand anyone booking a holiday abroad at the moment. There’s so much that could go wrong. Risk of Quarantine, risk of it getting cancelled, risk of losing money etc etc. Why would you? Fair enough for those who already had them booked pre Covid and could potentially lose money.

Because it’s cheap and places are quiet. Also, you need a mental break as well.

I generally agree though, it’s only worth booking if you can be super flexible.

 

[MTF]

Do we think that lower death numbers exclusively means that a younger population are getting it, or could we be seeing what often happens with coronaviruses, that the less lethal strains often become the dominant, most virulent?

A possibility or no?

I think it could be a strain thing, where the most prevalent ones now aren't as severe in both causing hospitalization or ultimately death as some of the early ones. Probably a strain that causes fewer symptoms but is still transmissible will have circulated several times what a more aggressive one has. I think herd immunity is playing some part. Despite the discussions of whether the threshold is 20% or 80% (most extreme assumptions), we must also understand that it is a gradual effect. Even if 80% leads to virtual eradication, propagation in a population 25% exposed is still much slower than a population 0% exposed.

Then my darker hypothesis would be that it has already caused the death of the people who are at risk of death. This one would require that exposure in the population is quite higher than measured as its hard to say its gotten around to most of the vulnerable people of total cases are only some 20% of the population. Would have to be more like 50% or something, which I don't think any studies so far suggest has been the case.

 

[Dancfc]

I honestly don’t understand anyone booking a holiday abroad at the moment. There’s so much that could go wrong. Risk of Quarantine, risk of it getting cancelled, risk of losing money etc etc. Why would you? Fair enough for those who already had them booked pre Covid and could potentially lose money.

I never thought I'd ever say these next nine words but Katie Hopkins was spot on the other day when she said people have to own their risks and own their decisions. If you want to go on holiday accept the risk of quarentine.

If people go abroad they do accepting the risk of quarentine also getting stuck out there due to symptoms/catching the thing so yes I agree with you in the sense that I have no sympathy for people moaning about being caught cold (especially ones who went to France in the last week or so, it was inevitable they were getting taken off the air bridge asap) but I don't believe people going on a travel right now should be shammed aslong as they stick to the guidelines of the country they're visiting. You never know the situation of the person travelling, maybe it's someone who saved hundreds of lives at the peak and needed to get away to a new country to mentally reset, maybe they're taking the opportunity to see loved ones just incase the second wave comes to fruition.

The best thing to do would to research the situation in other countries, I was going to spend a few days in Krakow but saw the situation there was getting concerning (towns circling the city getting put on yellow/red lists) so instead I changed to Rome.

Speaking on coming back from France I wonder how the Piers Morgan apologists feel right now, he was one of the main driver's in building up the (irrational level of) fear and the first opportunity he gets he pisses of to France and rushes back from a country with loads of cases so he doesn't have to quarentine. I was hoping his behaviour came about because he was a victim of the scare campaign himself but his actions clearly point to the likely fact he was doing it to build his profile which was quite disgusting in my opinion.

 

[Stookie]

I never thought I'd ever say these next nine words but Katie Hopkins was spot on the other day when she said people have to own their risks and own their decisions. If you want to go on holiday accept the risk of quarentine.

If people go abroad they do accepting the risk of quarentine also getting stuck out there due to symptoms/catching the thing so yes I agree with you in the sense that I have no sympathy for people moaning about being caught cold (especially ones who went to France in the last week or so, it was inevitable they were getting taken off the air bridge asap) but I don't believe people going on a travel right now should be shammed aslong as they stick to the guidelines of the country they're visiting. You never know the situation of the person travelling, maybe it's someone who saved hundreds of lives at the peak and needed to get away to a new country to mentally reset, maybe they're taking the opportunity to see loved ones just incase the second wave comes to fruition.

The best thing to do would to research the situation in other countries, I was going to spend a few days in Krakow but saw the situation there was getting concerning (towns circling the city getting put on yellow/red lists) so instead I changed to Rome.

Speaking on coming back from France I wonder how the Piers Morgan apologists feel right now, he was one of the main driver's in building up the (irrational level of) fear and the first opportunity he gets he pisses of to France and rushes back from a country with loads of cases so he doesn't have to quarentine. I was hoping his behaviour came about because he was a victim of the scare campaign himself but his actions clearly point to the likely fact he was doing it to build his profile which was quite disgusting in my opinion.

Nothing He does or says surprises me. But someone near me booked a trip to Spain after quarantine came in. He’s a bit of a jack the lad, doesn’t give two shits about anything or anyone else. Constantly putting stuff on FB about it all being a conspiracy etc. Anyway, he and his family gone out to Spain, constantly posting on FB loads of pics. Comes back and then just carries on as normal. His kids running up and down the street with other kids, he’s off out to work as a plasterer. One of the neighbours reported him and now he’s kicking off knocking on everyone’s door asking who reported him. Police are down every other day. They’re Just scum really and really indicative of this ‘I don’t care’ attitude.

 

[Stack]

Joe does lots of interesting videos, heres his take in the virus.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

My big worry is that all of this focus on death rates in children is ignoring the question of what the potential long terms effects of this virus can have on the body. With so many people still needing support after being "cured" by this thing it's not exactly a case of "righto, it's all gone now back to normal life!"

 

[11101]

Nothing He does or says surprises me. But someone near me booked a trip to Spain after quarantine came in. He’s a bit of a jack the lad, doesn’t give two shits about anything or anyone else. Constantly putting stuff on FB about it all being a conspiracy etc. Anyway, he and his family gone out to Spain, constantly posting on FB loads of pics. Comes back and then just carries on as normal. His kids running up and down the street with other kids, he’s off out to work as a plasterer. One of the neighbours reported him and now he’s kicking off knocking on everyone’s door asking who reported him. Police are down every other day. They’re Just scum really and really indicative of this ‘I don’t care’ attitude.

And that's why quarantine in the UK wont work. If he had been hit with a 5k fine from the off he might not be so ballsy, and it wouldn't take many of those before people took notice. I know loads of people in the UK who have ignored the rules.

 

[redshaw]

UK 3 deaths and 713 cases

Some encouraging news
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/...p4-u4yMZYA6LXg_Hbb6G6Smfca01gAOqP2sCspgAe5Hl0

"New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again."

To the immune system, not all germs are equally memorable. But our body’s cells seem to be seriously studying up on the coronavirus.

"Scientists who have been monitoring immune responses to the virus are now starting to see encouraging signs of strong, lasting immunity, even in people who developed only mild symptoms of Covid-19, a flurry of new studies suggests. Disease-fighting antibodies, as well as immune cells called B cells and T cells that are capable of recognizing the virus, appear to persist months after infections have resolved — an encouraging echo of the body’s enduring response to other viruses.

Researchers have yet to find unambiguous evidence that coronavirus reinfections are occurring, especially within the few months that the virus has been rippling through the human population. The prospect of immune memory “helps to explain that,” Dr. Pepper said."

We haven't heard much more about reinfections and those getting hit harder next time round like what allegedly happened a month back in the US. We should be seeing a lot more from US at least.

Seems rare if it happens and there's still some questions about testing with false positive and negative, some will slip through and look like reinfection or it's very rare right now. I guess the new surge in Europe might show some more soon.

 

[Skills]

What kind of deaths were we seeing when the cases were previously around 700-1000?

 

[Jacko21]

What kind of deaths were we seeing when the cases were previously around 700-1000?

From 23rd - 29th June:

Avg. confirmed cases = 974
Avg. confirmed deaths = 132

 

[BootsyCollins]

UK 3 deaths and 713 cases

Some encouraging news
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/...p4-u4yMZYA6LXg_Hbb6G6Smfca01gAOqP2sCspgAe5Hl0

"New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again."

To the immune system, not all germs are equally memorable. But our body’s cells seem to be seriously studying up on the coronavirus.

"Scientists who have been monitoring immune responses to the virus are now starting to see encouraging signs of strong, lasting immunity, even in people who developed only mild symptoms of Covid-19, a flurry of new studies suggests. Disease-fighting antibodies, as well as immune cells called B cells and T cells that are capable of recognizing the virus, appear to persist months after infections have resolved — an encouraging echo of the body’s enduring response to other viruses.

Researchers have yet to find unambiguous evidence that coronavirus reinfections are occurring, especially within the few months that the virus has been rippling through the human population. The prospect of immune memory “helps to explain that,” Dr. Pepper said."

We haven't heard much more about reinfections and those getting hit harder next time round like what allegedly happened a month back in the US. We should be seeing a lot more from US at least.

Seems rare if it happens and there's still some questions about testing with false positive and negative, some will slip through and look like reinfection or it's very rare right now. I guess the new surge in Europe might show some more soon.

No way!

 

[Stack]

 

[Traub]

It's an interesting question that we can probably only speculate on right now. Personally I'd be keen to know if there's been any measurable change in viral load in positive cases over the European summer. I'd also hope that all countries are doing a better job of looking after care homes by now (so like you say it's younger people being infected).

Probably also due to people wearing masks and not being dirty pigs.

 

[ReallyUSA]

Just beat it along with my s/o. It was awful, and I wouldn't wish it on anyone. There is still such an anti-expert thing still going on here. One of our counties was just put off the Governor's watch list, and people's first thought is to open up the whole country.