I`ll wear a mask in the doctors surgery as for the pubs, shops and local cafes I just avoid going in them .
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Fair enough.
Few things on the discussions over the last couple of pages:
(I will couch this by saying, again, the UK's response has been shambolic from the beginning, as debate around this topic is often so polarised and strangely tribal).
-Case definitions can and do change during outbreaks. This is not unusual, especially when you're dealing with a relatively new virus and especially when your definition differs from others. What can and should happen is that as you start, you have a broad definition and then narrow this down as you gather more information and more resources to focus your attention. Of course, the UK have not done this particularly well either (look at our lateness in including anosmia as part of the case definition).
The excess deaths rightly show that the UK was probably the worst affected country in Europe so far. The mistake that some people have made though is to assume that all those excess deaths were people dying of Covid. Some of it will be but I'm almost certain not all. As an example, my trust has both a primary angioplasty heart attack centre and a hyper acute stroke unit. Admissions to both of these acute centres dropped by around half at the peak of Covid, whilst the cardiologists and stroke docs were twiddling their thumbs. They stayed open. Did people stop having heart attacks and strokes? Unlikely. They're probably having them at home and were scared to go in. The reason for this can be discussed separately but it is simplistic to see x number of excess deaths and simply assume that its all only covid deaths.
The most important point for me is that regardless of how badly things have already gone, this doesn't mean that this should lay the basis for how policies are enacted now. Just because the UK was an utter shitshow 2 months ago does not mean they just shrug the shoulders, say well there's not much we can do now and not bother, just like the fact Greece or Israel having previously done a good job doesn't mean they continue to be in control of their situation.
Rest assured though, in keeping with the generally shambolic approach of the UK so far, our border control policies, even for countries supposedly on the quarantine list, continue to be a 'light touch' compared to countries doing it right.
I've been supportive of tighter border controls from relatively early on and found it incredible that we had literally nothing at our airports for so long. The fact that we were and still are to some extent shit should not preclude trying to control the situation in a better way now.
(I will couch this by saying, again, the UK's response has been shambolic from the beginning, as debate around this topic is often so polarised and strangely tribal).
-Case definitions can and do change during outbreaks. This is not unusual, especially when you're dealing with a relatively new virus and especially when your definition differs from others. What can and should happen is that as you start, you have a broad definition and then narrow this down as you gather more information and more resources to focus your attention. Of course, the UK have not done this particularly well either (look at our lateness in including anosmia as part of the case definition).
The excess deaths rightly show that the UK was probably the worst affected country in Europe so far. The mistake that some people have made though is to assume that all those excess deaths were people dying of Covid. Some of it will be but I'm almost certain not all. As an example, my trust has both a primary angioplasty heart attack centre and a hyper acute stroke unit. Admissions to both of these acute centres dropped by around half at the peak of Covid, whilst the cardiologists and stroke docs were twiddling their thumbs. They stayed open. Did people stop having heart attacks and strokes? Unlikely. They're probably having them at home and were scared to go in. The reason for this can be discussed separately but it is simplistic to see x number of excess deaths and simply assume that its all only covid deaths.
The most important point for me is that regardless of how badly things have already gone, this doesn't mean that this should lay the basis for how policies are enacted now. Just because the UK was an utter shitshow 2 months ago does not mean they just shrug the shoulders, say well there's not much we can do now and not bother, just like the fact Greece or Israel having previously done a good job doesn't mean they continue to be in control of their situation.
Rest assured though, in keeping with the generally shambolic approach of the UK so far, our border control policies, even for countries supposedly on the quarantine list, continue to be a 'light touch' compared to countries doing it right.
I've been supportive of tighter border controls from relatively early on and found it incredible that we had literally nothing at our airports for so long. The fact that we were and still are to some extent shit should not preclude trying to control the situation in a better way now.
@africanspur
Good post
Regarding your example, you know the opposite example. In 2019, 1,748 people died on Britain's roads so it is highly possible to have a strong decline in 2020 due to a reduction of driving in the imposed lockdown.
Good post
You are right but a change of the methodology in mid August is weird.
Sure, it is simplistic but excess deaths is certainly the best approximate by a mile.
Regarding your example, you know the opposite example. In 2019, 1,748 people died on Britain's roads so it is highly possible to have a strong decline in 2020 due to a reduction of driving in the imposed lockdown.
I agree
Our case numbers are steady at around 15 a day and outside of North Wales they’ve been very low in the community for months. I’m in Swansea and it’s been about 2 months since our last ITU COVID patient and there haven’t been any confirmed cases in the hospital in this area for two weeks.
It’s true masks are only mandatory when using public transport however we have opened up at a slower rate than the rest of the UK. You are only allowed to visit one extended household to form a bubble indoors. The rules around visiting other households indoors was supposed to be relaxed this weekend but that has been postponed due to evidence around transmission based on what’s going on in England. Gyms and swimming pools only opened this week. Indoor pubs and restaurants only opened up two weeks ago and you can only go to them with people in your extended household bubble. The only area we were quicker in opening up in Wales was outdoor contact sporting activity. I’ve been back playing 5-aside for 5 weeks now and I’m delighted they prioritised that over the pubs.
Outside of a few outbreaks at meat factories in Merthyr and Wrexham we’ve done a good job here and our contact tracing is localised and has a much higher success rate than England. They’re now abandoning their model to replicate ours using local authorities. However, I do think indoor pubs opening and the continuing rising cases in England will make it difficult to sustain. Once it’s out again in the community they’ll make masks mandatory indoors like the rest of the UK. Unfortunately we can’t add England onto the quarantine list
India still 'officially' recording 65,000 cases per day and yet to reach its peak. What is the plan to get it under control?!
Sounds like you guys are doing a great job. We’re having a fairly major wobble in Ireland after rushing through the early stages of our re-opening.Our case numbers are steady at around 15 a day and outside of North Wales they’ve been very low in the community for months. I’m in Swansea and it’s been about 2 months since our last ITU COVID patient and there haven’t been any confirmed cases in the hospital in this area for two weeks.
It’s true masks are only mandatory when using public transport however we have opened up at a slower rate than the rest of the UK. You are only allowed to visit one extended household to form a bubble indoors. The rules around visiting other households indoors was supposed to be relaxed this weekend but that has been postponed due to evidence around transmission based on what’s going on in England. Gyms and swimming pools only opened this week. Indoor pubs and restaurants only opened up two weeks ago and you can only go to them with people in your extended household bubble. The only area we were quicker in opening up in Wales was outdoor contact sporting activity. I’ve been back playing 5-aside for 5 weeks now and I’m delighted they prioritised that over the pubs.
Outside of a few outbreaks at meat factories in Merthyr and Wrexham we’ve done a good job here and our contact tracing is localised and has a much higher success rate than England. They’re now abandoning their model to replicate ours using local authorities. However, I do think indoor pubs opening and the continuing rising cases in England will make it difficult to sustain. Once it’s out again in the community they’ll make masks mandatory indoors like the rest of the UK. Unfortunately we can’t add England onto the quarantine list
I was under the impression that Belgium have been very strict with how they have counted their number of deaths, so much so that they have probably over-counted in comparison to many other countries.I don't get why there is still discussion about number of deaths in each country. It's been established months ago that every country counts in different ways. Belgium is still one of the worst in the world per capita, despite 30+ countries worldwide having a ton more infections. And we've been testing a lot lately.
Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Iraq, Philippines, Indonesia all are massive countries, have 5-10 times the number of infections and only a fraction of deaths compared to Belgium. Unless we are doing something very wrong here, I simply can't believe the numbers coming from certain countries.
Edit: yeah, I'm comparing too
65,000 cases a day in India wouldn’t even put then on the UK red list.India still 'officially' recording 65,000 cases per day and yet to reach its peak. What is the plan to get it under control?!
That’s just 4.8 cases per 100,000.
Better than most countries in the World. That population number is absolutely insane.
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Is my maths right here?
For India to match the UK deaths per million, they’d have to lose around 900,000 lives??
edit: now I think I’m right.
For India to match the UK deaths per million, they’d have to lose around 900,000 lives??
edit: now I think I’m right.
UK deaths 11, and 1441 cases.
Big jump in cases, seems again we're just a week or two off from what's happening in mainland Europe.
Big jump in cases, seems again we're just a week or two off from what's happening in mainland Europe.
Flu and Pneumonia are killing more people in the UK now....and Covid is on the increase again.
3-4 weeks and we will start to see more (stricter) shut downs of parts of the North
3-4 weeks and we will start to see more (stricter) shut downs of parts of the North
Hmm I'm not sure, they dumped all of the Northampton outbreak cases in yesterdays figures. Nearly 300 cases.
But large outbreaks like that are still relevant to the situation overall and the main driver behind the surge happening in other European countries.
F-Red always wants to play down the UK cases, understandably so, but obviously the same is happening in other countries too where clusters and previous days bump up the numbers. It’s not solely a UK phenomenon.
The UK 7 day average keeps climbing from that low of 545 to over 1000 now, just as many other parts of Europe had, so redshaw is likely correct in his assessment there.
I wish we had better information regarding hospital admissions as it’s a much more accurate and reliable stat to tell us the status of the pandemic in each country.
F-Red or redshaw, where can I find UK hospital admission stats? I’m assuming they are not increasing despite the increase in status as like much of Europe it’s the 20-30 age group driving this?
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Just realised the threshold to be red-listed by Germany is 50 cases per 100,000 rather than the ridiculous 20 that the UK have in place. Ridiculous because there is already widespread community transmission in the UK. That feels like a much smarter longterm option so as not to cause so much chaos and utterly ruin the travel industry.
Germany also testing at airports for arrivals from risk zones.
Why are they just so much better at everything?
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-manda...ng-at-airports-off-to-smooth-start/a-54499213
I wish we could all get to 5 cases per 100,000 long term, but it’s clearly not at all realistic and quite obviously favours countries with larger populations.
Germany also testing at airports for arrivals from risk zones.
Why are they just so much better at everything?
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-manda...ng-at-airports-off-to-smooth-start/a-54499213
I wish we could all get to 5 cases per 100,000 long term, but it’s clearly not at all realistic and quite obviously favours countries with larger populations.
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This is the plan: https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nat...nts-to-fight-covid-19-union-minister-arj.htmlIndia still 'officially' recording 65,000 cases per day and yet to reach its peak. What is the plan to get it under control?!
Cannot agree with you at all. As someone actually living in the UK I fully realise the mess we made of the issue at the start. IMHO I hope we continue to lock down hard on overseas travel. Indeed I would also like to see us taking a more disciplined and stronger stance against transgressions at home as we have been and continue to be too lenient by half. If that means being out of step with much of Europe so be it particularly when incidences seem to be rising quite significantly on the continent and we ourselves seem to be struggling to keep the rate of infection under control.
Fair enough, we all have our opinions.
I just don’t think importing Covid-19 is going to be the UK problem at all, the UK could slam shut all borders now and cases will still continue to rise, as it’s still clearly widespread in the UK.
Keeping families apart, maybe for a year or more for 20 cases in 100,000 and offering no alternative like a negative covid test or airport testing is abhorrent and likely won’t make didly squat of difference. If I come home to the UK with my daughter, we’re as likely to catch it from a border officer or my own family. This isn’t folk returning from Italy in late February/early March, it’s everywhere.
I just don’t see how you can warrant it at such a low bar when you have so much transmission already.
Why don’t you travel to the Uk anyway and self isolate when you get there? It doesn’t sound very rigorously enforced and if you stick within a family “bubble” when you get to the UK then you’re not doing anything very morally wrong if you see your family.
I use this site, which collates all the UK data
http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/
The hospitalisation numbers continue to fall. There are some weird features that differ between countries - Scottish hospitalisation numbers are stubbornly high despite admissions being low. Either no one is ever being sent home, or they define discharge differently.
Also, in Wales, daily admissions are much higher than in the rest of the UK despite low case counts, which is again a difference in definition. England counts admissions with a confirmed case, while Wales counts suspected cases.
In any case the current increases in pockets of the North and around Leicester and Northampton don't appear to have led to surges in hospital cases as yet.
Yeah I've thought it through loads lately. This issue there is that "you must self-isolate for the full 14 days". First off, we can't really get over for 14 days, and travelling back to the airport after 7 days is breaking those rules as far as I can understand. If we were allowed to break isolation to travel home to Sweden, I'd do it regardless.
I still think the cases per 100,000 population is rather ridiculous, the UK had more cases in one factory than the entire country of Sweden had as a daily average this week.
Cheers for that, appears to be the same story in many places, rises in cases but not admissions. Great sign if it can stay that way, the more people with mild Covid-19 the harder it'll be to spread.
Right! I don't understand why Northampton hasn't had some serious intervention put in place. 300 potential index cases, and we're just hoping they'll all happily self isolate?
I’m almost certain you can travel back to the airport within those 14 days. For example, if someone has a property in the UK they would be allowed to travel in and out over a weekend providing they don’t interact with anyone else. I get the impression there’s almost no enforcement anyway.
That's the only thing stopping us, I can't get any clarity on this and if it's "breaking the rules" I'd imagine passport control is the only place where you're likely to get found out. :/
The Telegraph question section had the following:
Will those staying for less than 14 days in the UK be subject to quarantine?'
Our next question comes from a reader who'd like to remain anonymous. They ask:
If travel is essential into the UK for a period shorter than 14 days, will the traveller be allowed to fly back in this period or will they have to remain in quarantine for 14 days?
Here's Nick's answer:
Logic would clearly suggest that they would have to wait 14 days before flying again. But no guidance on this has been issued.
Surely it's the other way round. Mild cases will be out and about spreading without knowing it.
Does anyone know if new hospital admissions are going up in hot spot areas? In the UK we keep saying overall hospital admissions are trending downwards so everything is still fine with our 1,400 cases a day but that simply means those that caught it during the first stint are being discharged at a faster rate than those catching it recently are being admitted. That isn’t a surprise considering how much we ballsed up the first wave in rather a lot of people getting it and it taking 8 weeks or so for serious patients with it to either be discharged or unfortunately pass away.
Surely the metric to look at is whether new hospital admissions with COVID are increasing and by how much? As a new case lags a hospital admission by 10 days once that starts increasing at a sharp rate and if our new cases continue to go up it could start rising quite quickly again. England opened up restrictions even further yesterday and looking at the case numbers I just don’t see where they got the rationale for that unless new hospital admissions are staying steady and the increase in cases is genuinely down to more targeted testing.
Surely the metric to look at is whether new hospital admissions with COVID are increasing and by how much? As a new case lags a hospital admission by 10 days once that starts increasing at a sharp rate and if our new cases continue to go up it could start rising quite quickly again. England opened up restrictions even further yesterday and looking at the case numbers I just don’t see where they got the rationale for that unless new hospital admissions are staying steady and the increase in cases is genuinely down to more targeted testing.
Because the whole restrictions thing in the first place was due to saving our health service from being overwhelmed.
Cases have been slowly trending up for a month so you would think by now it would have started showing in hospital admissions and deaths but it's done the total opposite. Whether that's due to younger people catching it or the virus weakening remains to be seen but unless hospital admissions go up its hard to justify re tightening restrictions.
Bit of both I guess.
But as long as hospital admissions stay down, it’s mainly good news in my eyes.
Firstly, no. That’s what they said to justify restrictions it and for deciding to let it go I’m t
I totally disagree that the goal now is to just ensure the NHS isn’t overwhelmed, and if that is what ‘good’ looks like in the minds of our leaders then it explains why we’ve done such a tragically shit job. The actual goal is surely to suppress the virus as much as feasibly possible whilst keeping the economic and societal damage to a minimum. Then hopefully better treatments or a vaccine end this nightmare in the new year. It’s a balancing act. There is no economic or societal normality when a new deadly virus is running rampant in the community. So I’m looking at these rising case numbers and I’m thinking to myself there’s a bit of a problem when they try to get schools to go back in September if this continues. And that’s bad for society, bad for the economy, and also obviously pretty bad for those who happen to get ill and die with it.
Your second point is what I’m asking. All I can find is overall patients in hospital with COVID which is falling. That data is useless at determining if spread is on the rise because we’re coming from such a high level. I can’t find new COVID hospital admissions data. That’s the really important metric. Are new admissions staying steady or rising? If they start to rise at a statistically significant level and continue to do so then we know we aren’t just finding more because we’re testing better, it’s because the R number is now above 1 which is exactly what we’re trying to avoid.
And what you’ve said about new cases going up but admissions/deaths staying flat/falling is exactly what many were saying 6 weeks ago in Texas and Florida. Cases lead to admissions which lead to deaths. There’s a clear correlation between all three and there’s a time lag. It just seems like us and the rest of Europe are about to go through a lesser version of what those states went through a month ago, but obviously I’ll be delighted to be wrong though.
UK 3 deaths and 1012 cases
Hopefully we can keep under 2k.
I mean it's fine saying it's just this outbreak added from Northampton but that's how all these surges start across Europe, a little outbreak here and there but a few weeks later it can build up and go beyond contact tracing.
Hopefully we can keep under 2k.
I mean it's fine saying it's just this outbreak added from Northampton but that's how all these surges start across Europe, a little outbreak here and there but a few weeks later it can build up and go beyond contact tracing.
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New admissions is available on the page I linked earlier. They are continuing to drop, with no significant increase in the areas with outbreaks.
It is starting to look like we are getting on top of this , the elderly and vulnerable are most likely still being careful and keeping themselves to themselves and younger folk are getting on with things and the ones becoming infected as there are less hospital cases and deaths. Still no masks in Wales and there are a lot of people about in close contact but I would say most are younger families with kids .
There was a funeral for an 82 year old woman in our village today and there must have been over 100 people there , definitely a sign of things getting back to normal .
There was a funeral for an 82 year old woman in our village today and there must have been over 100 people there , definitely a sign of things getting back to normal .
It's peak Italian holiday season now. There are loads of visitors and most of them are not wearing masks, which infuriates me - if they've come from a city elsewhere in the country, they're ruining things for those of us here who managed for months with no option to go more than a few hundred metres to a single shop.
I heard a few British voices as I walked around yesterday, none of the Brits had masks. I should have said something. I wish the carabinieri were patrolling again.
I heard a few British voices as I walked around yesterday, none of the Brits had masks. I should have said something. I wish the carabinieri were patrolling again.
Brilliant news, thanks. Let’s hope that holds over the next few weeks.
200 cases in Ireland today. This seems to be getting away from us far quicker than most other countries. Average daily cases seem to be doubling every week.
It is the same in North Wales, masks aren`t mandatory so there are people here from all over the UK and no one is wearing a mask as everyone has got their holiday heads on , shops , pubs , cafes full of people with no masks. It has been like this for a few weeks now and so far we have had no problems, I am hoping that is a good sign. I avoid the crowded areas and most elderly locals stay away too which is quite sad. It is a scary thought if there is a problem though as it is people from all over the UK.
My local Asda still has loads of folk shopping without masks on, probably because Asda only "encourages" the use of them. Seeing as it's up to the police to handle, according to them, I might walk in next time smoking a cigarette with my willy hanging out. Same thing innit?
I would pay to see that.
And you are absolutely right. Wearing a face covering in such places is the law.
But there are always idiots who think that laws apply to other people but it is perfectly ok for them to break them.
I have been on a number of buses. Some drivers tell the travellers they should be wearing one while others don't.
You get the usual halfwits who take them off after boarding.
The threat of a £100 fine is naive in the extreme.