InfiniteBoredom
Full Member
http://steveschale.com/blog/2020/10/12/florida-22-days-out-why-am-i-still-doing-this-to-myself.html
at just under 5.6 million vote by mail requests, if return rates roughly model 2016, that means about 4.6 million voters will cast a ballot by mail - if not another person requests a ballot. In the 2020 primary, return rates exceeded return rates in the 2018 primary – so that might indicate higher overall return rates. Then again, it might not.
That being said, as of today, about 30% of all ballots have already been returned – so return rates are running well ahead of where we were in 2016 at this point. Again, it is too early for me to take a gander on whether this means anything for return rates overall – so let’s check back on that in week.
Overall, there are 785,000 more Democratic requests than Republican ones – and as of this morning, 362,547 more Democrats have returned ballots than Republicans.
BUT.
Keep in mind, while this is a good thing, a significant part of this is due to the fact people are changing the way they vote – with more Democrats voting by mail, and arguably, more Republicans waiting to vote on Election Day.
Of the 844K Democrats who had voted by mail as of Sunday night (the changes weren't significant on Monday morning), about 720K of them voted in 2016 and/or 2018 – or about 85% of the Democratic ballots.
Of the 485K Republicans who had voted by Sunday night, about 430K of them voted in 2016 and/or 2018 – roughly 89% of the GOP ballots.
For the NPA voters, it is about 79% of their 330K ballots that fall into a 2016 and/or 2018 voter model.