This.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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@NateSilver538
@smotus
@jennifernvictor
Should go a long way for my money at least.
Might as well follow @Scaramucci for some Trump trolling too
538 should have a podcast some time today where they are going to discuss how they are covering tomorrow.
Nate Cohn (NYT)
Nate Silver (538)
Larry Sabato/Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball)
Sam Wang (PEC)
Michael McDonald (ElectProject)
Dave Wasserman (Redistrict)
Harry Enten (CNN)
Steve Kornacki (NBC)
That’s the main model guys on there, there are also a bunch of state specific guys but I doubt you’d get the granularity of their updates if you aren’t familiar.
Cheers!
@realDonaldTrump
Rubio is a slimey scumbag. I can think of few who are more "politician" than he is. Guy was demolished and insulted by Trump during the primaries - essentially ruining any shot the party and he might have thought he might have at a future presidential run and he and just rolled over and stuck his butt in the air.
108% already voted. 30% of total or more expected to vote on the day. Harris over 10% up.
The big deal though is both Bexar and Travis are up BIG as trump would say all in caps. Clinton won these 50:40 and 66:27 respectively. They both have around 20% turnout increase. That's real fecking bad for trump.
Little Marco greasing the skids for 2024
Anyone know when the first results are expected UK time and when we can expect a final result?
If, like me, you are looking for anything to listen to that might keep the terror from taking over then this might be of interest. Bakari Sellers had a great interview with CNN's Ron Brownstein on his podcast this morning.
https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/2...in-on-whats-going-to-happen-on-election-night
https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/2...in-on-whats-going-to-happen-on-election-night
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the Presidential election. Disenfranchisement... a lot.
Wang! Forgot all about him.
Ain't worked though has it. Feck Abbott. They'll have to use good ole vote rigging instead like all the 'shithole countries' Trump talks of.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose
Joe Lockhart, who served as Bill Clinton’s press secretary, suggested to me that, if Biden narrowly wins, a chaotic interregnum could provide an opportunity for a “global settlement” in which Trump will concede the election and “go away” in exchange for a promise that he won’t face charges anywhere, including in New York. Lockhart argued that New York’s legal authorities are not just lawyers but also politicians, and might be convinced that a deal is in the public interest. He pointed out that a global-settlement arrangement was made, “in microcosm,” at the end of the Clinton Presidency, when the independent counsel behind the Monica Lewinsky investigation agreed to wrap things up if Clinton paid a twenty-five-thousand-dollar fine, forfeited his law license, and admitted that he had testified falsely under oath. “So there’s some precedent,” Lockhart said, although he admitted that such a deal would anger many Americans.
I have family and friends in Houston and Dallas. Anecdotally it's as republican as ever. I understand the changing demographics idea but I don't know.
Wasn't the last senator election supposed to be a sign of the change? Anything in that to favor this interpretation?
Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan are worse.
Polling is not an exact science. The practice of using telephones is so outmoded - after all who in this day and age willingly picks up their landline to spend 20-30 minutes going over a 40+ point questionnaire? The people who don't respond are just as valuable as the people who do. How do you get a representative sample? Even then, voters can still change their mind. This will be a slugfest for weeks.
Um it is.
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That’s Florida gone then. Bill Barr to the rescue.
He’s dreaming. You can’t get as humiliated as he and Cruz did with Trump and expect people to see you as a leader later.
There is exactly zero evidence the shy Trump voter existed even in 2016, let alone in 2020.
So telling how many times they had to include references to how ‘This is totally normal!! We do this all the time!!’.
The Laptop bollocks is real to you?
Yes, it is true that the Daily Mail are nuts.
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Yeah but they have since fallen in line with Trumpism by not criticizing him and not pushing back on his narrative. Cruz, Rubio, Haley and a few others will definitely be in the mix in 24.
There is a laptop. Hunter Biden's emails were allegedly found on it. Some of the emails have been confirmed to be genuine by people involved in the email chain. The emails themselves don't show any proof of criminal activity but that doesn't make the story fake.
Political polls are usually very short, many asking only the bare essentials about who you are, how likely you are to vote and who you'll vote for. You can do that in under a minute. And while polling isn't an exact science, you can apply scientific tests to them, including some of the things you've mentioned.
For example, we know that polls are about as accurate as they've been for over two decades - maybe a little more so. We know that telephone polls are generally more accurate than other methods, despite the fact that response rates have dropped off a cliff and overall access through that method has fallen. We know that polls have called the winner 4 out of 5 times, this close to the election period, stretching back to the 90s. We know that in close races, where the winning margin is 0-3 points, they get it right just 3 out of 5 times, while if the margin is 10+, they get it right 9 out of 10 times. There's a good summary here.
So even it only reaches a sample of the population, that sample is not perfectly representative, and the measure being captured is not perfectly precise, we know how accurate it is. 1 out of 5 times it will get it wrong. When that 1 time time happens, it becomes proof that polls are unreliable, but when those 4 out of 5 times happen, it barely gets a mention. We're just very good at intuiting statistics!
It’s a miscalculation though I think on their part. They’ve chosen to jump aboard the Trump train, BUT in the process allowed Trump to humiliate them. His supporters will remember that. Haley was the smart one, worked for him to keep in with his fans, then checked out well before he loses (can’t be accused of rat leaving sinking ship). In my opinion, she’s absolutely the one of the three to watch. Cruz and Rubio are done at least for the next cycle.
I’d take that..
What
Dead man on Everest? That is genuinely funny
Erm yes it does. The whole thing is complete nonsense but for the sake of argument lets say they did hack Hunter Biden.
They tried to make it sound like these laptops contained some explosive secrets about the criminal behaviour of the Biden family and it revealed feck all. So yes the story is fake.
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the story is a mix of fake and real; the probably illegal way the data was acquired is ignored; and what little real there is, is not nearly as damaging as is being pretended, and anyway concerns Hunter not Joe Biden.
Quoting an article from Nate Silver on accuracy of polls has me totally convinced
Kidding aside, I think two factors have rapidly made polling more difficult recently - the obsolescence of landline phones and the current heated political climate. The former makes getting a representative sample increasingly hard, the latter increases uncertainty on the accuracy of results. Given cancel climate and toxicity online you won't get many people to own up to what they truly believe.
I hope Trump loses, but I'm less certain of that outcome than what polls seem to suggest.
Rubio has largely stayed out of the fray since 2016, so he wouldn't be a wounded duck in future political cycles, as the likes of Graham, Jeff Sessions, and a few others will be. The real question is whether candidates in 24 will still run on Trumpism or a post-Trump reversion back to standard conservative politics.
Mate...
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