2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Scarlett Dracarys

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Georgia is still up for grabs for sure, but Trump is obviously favourite at this point
When you live in a country where a candidate like Trump can win twice you really have to start rethinking life. He is literally a blubbering lying sack of shit and he's in a position to rule again.
 

Ubik

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It's happening. Biden has flipped Michigan!

Per Politico.
Yup AP showing it. Woop woop!

Where's the Georgia negativity coming from? Needle is at the same place it's been for ages.
 

MrMarcello

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He'll still win Michigan. Large number of votes still to be counted from Detroit and Trump will get trounced there.
Yep, looks like the likely result.

64% reported from Wayne County with Biden currently up 230K votes. Add another net 100K is my guesstimate.

Trump will add a few thousand more votes from rural and smaller areas, perhaps up to 40-50K lead but Oakland will chip that down, as will Kalamazoo, and Wayne should give Biden the win. Then Trump and the GOP will file suit.

But as pointed out by someone last night on think it was MSNBC, the likes of MI, PA, WI are governed by Dems so shenanigans should not occur (Same in NV). Imagine if Walker were still ruling Wisconsin? He'd do whatever possible to win it for the GOP.
 

Kaos

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Quite unlikely IMO

but doubt they'll let him have another crack if he loses to Sleepy anyway
I dunno, I think Trump is facing a whole world of trouble if/when he leaves the white house. His up to orange tits in debt and has a whole cloud of legal issues surrounding him. And thats not even getting into his health, I can see him physically deteriorating with the humiliation of defeat, compounded by the stress of said possible looming legal landmines.
 

Dudu

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What about the senate race in MI guys?
Can Gary Peters hold his seat.. He's about 70k down.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Trump had a 220k vote lead in Michigan and it's just been decimated.:drool:
 

KirkDuyt

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Come on you geriatric bugger, pull through, beat the other slightly less geriatric cnut!!!
 

InfiniteBoredom

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All the swing state results are way closer to RCP's weighted average than they are to what you/538 were claiming.

I am too tired to discuss further if your entire argument is that Trump actually getting fairly good turnout numbers is a systematic polling error and therefore can be ignored. That's a hilariously bad take.
I actually didn’t claim big swing state margin, I was banging on for days that Florida was closer than all the +3/4/5 polls out there, despite putting it in personal prediction. Also didn’t bash Selzer’s poll.

The point here is polling is an imprecise science at best, if it can be called that, and there’s a million reasons it can go wrong. Change in demographics, change in self-identification, change in media consumption. Pollsters can usually get a fairly representative picture at large, within the MoE, but they are finding it harder and harder, even the best of them, to poll micro pockets of population, or irregular voters who are either not in or hard to reach. That’s a question they have to grapple with and we must be more cynical as a result, but it doesn’t put them on the same level with pollsters who set out with partisan interest in mind, or those who claim they were correct and espouse a theory based on said result while being off more than literally everybody else (USC/Dornsife).
 

Phil

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I must be blind, where is everyone seeing Político update so quickly?
 

NieThePiet

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So 3:3 between Trump (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania) and Biden (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), but Biden is winning on away goals.
 

Tarrou

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I wouldn't be massively surprised if a winner isn't declared for weeks yet

Trump is going to lose his mind and the chance of him accepting the result (if he loses) is basically zero
 

Mr Pigeon

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So 3:3 between Trump (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania) and Biden (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), but Biden is winning on away goals.
It's more like 3:3 in the final and it's about to go into extra time, but Biden FC just brought Messi and Ronnie on.
 

Siorac

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Michigan's still in play, the rest looks likely Republican. Not sure what's going on in Maine, there seems to be no reporting at all.

NC and Georgia might still tighten but probably not enough.
 
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