he only needs two of those 3
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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he only needs two of those 3
Can't get excited without a bit of nerves! And excitement's way more fun than dispassionate analysis of complex, boring numbers. So people are perfectly cool not chilling
Equally frustrating too.
There's a lot of money to be made on both outright winner and state betting, if people really are worried/convinced that Trump might edge it
If Biden wins PA it’s over. And he’s going to win PA outside of the recount margin. Not including votes received after Election Day. So there’s no basis of a potential legal challenge. I don’t get why people are stressed again in here. Patience!
What are the current betting odds on each candidate?
It's an online poll, it's not like they had to tattoo it onto their foreheads. I also disagree that Corbyn is less left than Boris is right. In fact I'd say the latter will be remembered as a tax and spend populist...Closer to Blair than Maggie.
That belief though probably implies your view that the Cafe is balanced. A Marxist would likely categorise the Cafe as right wing. Perspective I guess.
So I have a FB friend who is a full-blown acolyte of Qanon, he’s apoplectic! Sending stuff about how Trump marked all official ballots with some watermark that the radical left didn’t know about and how they’ve got them dead to rights.
Also just sent a meme about turnout of over 100% in various states using world population review as their source. I’ve literally just taken two minutes to go on that same source and find updated data that wipes out any credibility to that. For example they had Michigan as having 5.453m voters with a projected vote of 5.7m. Checking on the site they list Michigan at 8.12m registered voters.
They’re getting desperate!
Also just sent a meme about turnout of over 100% in various states using world population review as their source. I’ve literally just taken two minutes to go on that same source and find updated data that wipes out any credibility to that. For example they had Michigan as having 5.453m voters with a projected vote of 5.7m. Checking on the site they list Michigan at 8.12m registered voters.
They’re getting desperate!
I’ll bet that watermark story got some traction in the Q universe.
has Arizona been declared as different channels seem to have different numbers up ?
According to Paddy Power:
Biden 1/7
Trump 5/1
Trump was actually 1/7 himself around the beginning of counting!
To the people confused, it's easier to think like this:
* There are 5 states left. Biden only needs 2 of them. It doesn't matter which 2, because even the 2 smallest(Nevada and Arizona) will give him enough points.
* To "rephrase" the point above: Trump needs to win minimum 4 out of the remaining 5 states.
* If Biden gets Pennsylvania, then that will be sufficient. In other words: he wont need any of the other 4.
* There are 5 states left. Biden only needs 2 of them. It doesn't matter which 2, because even the 2 smallest(Nevada and Arizona) will give him enough points.
* To "rephrase" the point above: Trump needs to win minimum 4 out of the remaining 5 states.
* If Biden gets Pennsylvania, then that will be sufficient. In other words: he wont need any of the other 4.
US needs electronic voting. Having a long drawn out ballot count is something I associate with the 90s in India.
Electronic voting is widespread in America and also moronic.
It was prematurely called early by some outlets (Fox, AP) but has not been called by others (NYT, CNN). It's still in play.
That's not true. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he's toast no matter what. If he wins PA and NC (and GA) but Biden holds Arizona and Nevada, Biden still wins.
Wouldn't he be at 267 if he won PA but lost AZ and NV?
I work in UK elections and good god, we don't let Candidates anywhere near ballots before they go out.
We had a run in with Diebold in 2004 that no one wants to revisit. Just don’t think the overall safety is there yet. Somehow.
my mistake, forgot PA’s size.
No, he'd be at 273. He's at 253 now without Arizona or Nevada.
273
273
perfect cheers
Not been formally declared but AP declared it for Biden as Trump didn't have enough votes to make up difference.
This. We're close to the finish line it's just a waiting game at this point.
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Regardless of who wins (PLEASE MAKE IT BIDEN) I can't get over the feeling that the US basically still is a mess. Maybe a more civilised mess under Biden, and an evolving disaster under Trump, but I don't really see how this is going to change much unless they can work together across party lines.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/05/trumpism-here-to-stay/ (open in ingocnito mode if it's behind a wall).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/05/trumpism-here-to-stay/ (open in ingocnito mode if it's behind a wall).
Who's favourite now ?
Ah you're right. Somehow I thought NV was already accounted for in the tally I was looking at, it wasn't.
Biden still big favourite - but it's not quite as straightforward as we'd like
Is there any counting going on at the moment? Seems like ages since there's been an update on Politico.
I love QAnon freaks. Had one on my Facebook, he was super deep into conspiracy. Even said Stonehenge was built in 60s and forged as an ancient monument (if we only had people born before 1960 who could verify that). There was a time when he was trying to convince himself Australia did not exist and was just part of America.
I find that fascinating in 2020 - surely there must be a safe and efficient way of digitalizing the voting process.
Can’t take seriously, obviously. Look at the source.
This election needed a clear and convincing Biden victory, ideally with a Senate win, to force the GOP into abandoning Trumpism. Instead, Trump won more support than four years ago, might still sneak a win and the Senate will not change this time around (but may change later). And of course, a part of the population who votes for Trump and his enabler will feel they were cheated out of a victory (if Trump loses). The divide is only getting bigger.
Well if Biden is 1/7 and Trump 5/1....
Not a given that they'd even get out of the States. Honestly, if I were an American citizen, there's various of stuff I'd like to see and experience in my own borders before I'd even consider going overseas.
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