Westminster Politics

GloryHunter07

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Does printing more money really help though? Combined with borrowing for tax cuts, surely it only adds to the inflationary pressure?

Might ease short term gilt rates but it's just causing more long term pain.
There was a genuine risk of a market meltdown so they had to do something. Asset managers apparently having to sell bonds into a falling market in order to meet collateral calls.. recipe for disaster.
 

Pexbo

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Ok let’s here some predictions over how this plays out by:

1 week:
1 month:
End of year:
End of tax year:
Year to date:
 

sun_tzu

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Ok let’s here some predictions over how this plays out by:

1 week: Liz truss has to make some public statement of confidence in the chancellor (pound tanks)
1 month: they essentially leak the next budget early to calm the market (market panics and pound tanks)
End of year: shes put us back in lockdown so she can blame it on COVID
End of tax year: there is a full budget... It's awful and the pound tanks
Year to date: she's gone full Thatcher and we are at war over the Falklands in the hope it gives her an election victory in 2024
That said I'm sure she will find ways to fek things up even more than I predict
 

GloryHunter07

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Ok let’s here some predictions over how this plays out by:
1 week: Kwarteng sacked
1 month: New budget
End of year: Diversionary tactics eg invasion of Scotland
End of tax year: BIG trade deal with Bremuda
Year to date: Truss resigns in order to host the Great British Bakeoff
 

rimaldo

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Ok let’s here some predictions over how this plays out by:

1 week: pound collapses to a singularity.

1 month: truss blames russia and the war on uk cranes for the housing crisis.

End of year: the british celebrate christmas by feasting on the meat of their pet and christmas tree trimmings.

End of tax year: anyone on less than £150k per year is forced to pay their taxes directly to a posho to reduce “red tape overheads.”

Year to date: truss marries prince harry in an attempt to strengthen ties between government and the monarchy.
is what i reckon.
 

Beans

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Is everyone in politics an idiot? Is it just something smart period refuse to do these days? Seems to have the energy of a small town news reporter doing a story on a lemonade stand. But they're 12 years old as well.
 

Abizzz

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Is everyone in politics an idiot? Is it just something smart period refuse to do these days? Seems to have the energy of a small town news reporter doing a story on a lemonade stand. But they're 12 years old as well.
Politics has the same problem the police and refereeing has. The people who actually want to go into it are the ones you should be desperate to keep out.
 
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Beans

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Politics has the same problem the police and refereeing has. The people who actually want to go into it are the ones you should be desperate to keep out.
My dad is fond of saying anyone who wants to run for President should be automatically disqualified.
 

11101

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Fair but they've been so slow on inflation, interest rates are still only at 2.75% despite inflation having been 10% for what seems like a while now. Longer term inflationary pressure feels like an own-goal as it'll keep bond rates high regardless.
Andrew Bailey has got just about everything wrong so far but they had to step in here and provide liquidity. Genuine risk of the market collapsing if they don't.
 

Jippy

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Andrew Bailey has got just about everything wrong so far but they had to step in here and provide liquidity. Genuine risk of the market collapsing if they don't.
I know full well how fecking useless Bailey was at the FCA, but if the BoE had lifted rates more aggressively we'd have had a bad recession surely? Obviously his approach didn't work, but how effective would rate rises really have been against inflation caused by imported energy costs and before that the Covid supply chain crunch? Think he was pretty fecked whatever.
 

villain

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Even if a general election were called anytime soon, it would be stupid for Labour to want to be in power right now.
The people of this country are fickle with short memories and ridiculous aspirations that the majority of them will earn enough to be in a position to benefit from Tory policy.

Make no mistake - the economy isn't going to get much better in the short term regardless of who is in charge, and if Labour truly want to govern for a long period of time, they'd do well to avoid holding any position of power for at least 2 years.
 

Massive Spanner

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Crazy how low UK interest rates were before all this. My mortgage has been 3% in Ireland the last five years! Looks like you lot are royally fecked now, horrible situation, the tories are a disgrace.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Ok let’s here some predictions over how this plays out by:

1 week:
1 month:
End of year:
End of tax year:
Year to date:
1 week: we
1 month: are
End of year: all
End of tax year: totally
Year to date: fecked
 

11101

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I know full well how fecking useless Bailey was at the FCA, but if the BoE had lifted rates more aggressively we'd have had a bad recession surely? Obviously his approach didn't work, but how effective would rate rises really have been against inflation caused by imported energy costs and before that the Covid supply chain crunch? Think he was pretty fecked whatever.
I don't think they should have raised more aggressively, but they should have started sooner. They could have gotten ahead of the situation and lessened the multiplier effect.
 

Jippy

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I don't think they should have raised more aggressively, but they should have started sooner. They could have gotten ahead of the situation and lessened the multiplier effect.
Yep, makes sense. Guess they were too cautious on the strength of the economy and Bailey was a massive ditherer at the FCA too.
 

Jippy

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It's borne of a bit of a misunderstanding of what was going on. Some pension funds were having to sell some liquid assets, including gilts, to raise cash for margin calls on interest rate swaps that had turned against them cos of rate projections leaping up. It was more a fear that people selling gilts would force the yield up higher, becoming self-fulfilling, so the BoE intervened to buy a load and try to put a lid on yields.
@11101 will be able to explain far better, but you can't have a run on pension funds per se, so the Northern Rock example isn't great, but it sounds like a serious funding crunch was happening and the BoE had to act. These pension funds are multi-billion schemes, so even small percentages for them are colossal amounts of money.
 
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