SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[2cents]

Uh-oh?

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Isn’t this guy the most notorious panic-mongerger of the pandemic?

 

[Simbo]

Isn’t this guy the most notorious panic-mongerger of the pandemic?

Certainly sounds like it I dunno, in my admittedly brief check he seemed pretty sensible, if a bit hyperbolic. Checking further, looks like he gain notoriety for being one of the first to warn how bad Covid will be.

 

[stw2022]

Isn't millions plural by definition?

 

[berbatrick]

Isn’t this guy the most notorious panic-mongerger of the pandemic?

This was from a economics blog earlier this month:

https://adamtooze.com/2022/12/02/chartbook-177-beijings-tragic-covid-dilemma/

In May 2022 during the emergency in Shanghai, a paper in Nature Medicine estimated that lifting China’s COVID restrictions could results in a “tsunami” of infections. Based on the vaccination rate as of the spring of 2022 the Nature authors predicted that China would need more than 15 times the number of intensive care beds that are actually available. Their modeling suggested a likely toll of 1.55 million deaths. That is a grim figure. An estimate by The Economist, predicted something closer to 680,000, assuming that all intensive care needs can be met, which is far too optimistic.

It is worth noting that even the worst case scenarios do not foresee a catastrophe for China on the scale of America’s or Europe’s botched handling of the crisis. Scaled to population, America’s 1 million deaths would be equivalent to over 4 million in China. That does not seem on the cards. But the figure of between 500,000 and 1.5 million deaths are predicted by most studies would nevertheless be a shattering disaster. Scenes of chaos in hospitals like in Wuhan in January and February 2020 or Hong Kong in early 2022, played out hundreds of times across China are a nightmare that no one can wish for.

 

[jojojo]

Isn’t this guy the most notorious panic-mongerger of the pandemic?

Pretty much. He started out reasonable then got caught up in the likes and retweets business and became a celeb/grifter through it. He's basically complained about every relaxation of restrictions in the US (like reopening schools, mask mandates etc) while he and his family opted to live in Switzerland with open schools etc...

He's still looking for a new panic to hitch himself to. Every new variant, every mention of long COVID - he'll be putting the scariest possible spin on it.

China is a different matter to the rest of the world though - it looks like they may have decided to let it rip through the country. Low vaccination levels amongst the oldest and most vulnerable and low numbers of acute hospital beds make for a scary backdrop.

 

[jojojo]

It is worth noting that even the worst case scenarios do not foresee a catastrophe for China on the scale of America’s or Europe’s botched handling of the crisis. Scaled to population, America’s 1 million deaths would be equivalent to over 4 million in China. That does not seem on the cards. But the figure of between 500,000 and 1.5 million deaths are predicted by most studies would nevertheless be a shattering disaster. Scenes of chaos in hospitals like in Wuhan in January and February 2020 or Hong Kong in early 2022, played out hundreds of times across China are a nightmare that no one can wish for.

So much depends on how effective the Chinese vaccines really are at reducing serious disease - it's an unknown at the moment, but I'm still expecting that Omicron + fully vaccinated will spare them from the worst case we saw in Europe and the US with no vaccine back in 2020/ early 2021.

The crunch question is whether they have been able to push the vaccine take-up rate in the over 70s. The least vaccinated portion of the Chinese population (by age) are actually their oldest citizens and therefore the most vulnerable. If they've managed to push up those rates over the last few weeks they may be in better shape than we know.

And that's the thing right now - we don't know what's really happening in China. They've stopped publishing vaccination data, they've basically stopped testing (or at least reporting) and I'm not convinced we'll see them report their actual death toll.

Right now, all we can do is hope for the best. I think they've missed the chance to come out of this with the soft reopening and lower death rates seen in Singapore and New Zealand - we can only hope China are in better shape now than they were a few months ago and it won't be the worst case scenario. That said, even the more optimistic scenarios still mean a massive number of deaths.

 

[berbatrick]

So much depends on how effective the Chinese vaccines really are at reducing serious disease - it's an unknown at the moment, but I'm still expecting that Omicron + fully vaccinated will spare them from the worst case we saw in Europe and the US with no vaccine back in 2020/ early 2021.

The crunch question is whether they have been able to push the vaccine take-up rate in the over 70s. The least vaccinated portion of the Chinese population (by age) are actually their oldest citizens and therefore the most vulnerable. If they've managed to push up those rates over the last few weeks they may be in better shape than we know.

And that's the thing right now - we don't know what's really happening in China. They've stopped publishing vaccination data, they've basically stopped testing (or at least reporting) and I'm not convinced we'll see them report their actual death toll.

Right now, all we can do is hope for the best. I think they've missed the chance to come out of this with the soft reopening and lower death rates seen in Singapore and New Zealand - we can only hope China are in better shape now than they were a few months ago and it won't be the worst case scenario. That said, even the more optimistic scenarios still mean a massive number of deaths.

From the same blog, this is the shocking thing:

Where Beijing has failed is in rapidly delivering the third and fourth round of boosters and in ensuring that the most vulnerable population, those over 60, are properly covered. As of the latest figures cited by Bloomberg, “only 69% of those aged 60 and above and just 40% of over 80-year-olds have had booster shots.” That leaves tens of millions of elderly with no protection at all. They are the people who died in Hong Kong.

As far as I am aware there is no fully convincing explanation for this failure to provide comprehensive coverage particularly of the elderly.

There are a lot of good studies in the specialist literature in medical sociology and psychology that help to explain some of the vaccine resistance.

China became a victim of its own haste in rolling out vaccines on a rough and ready basis to those under the age of 60. This created the perception that the vaccines were not properly tested or safe for use amongst more fragile elderly people.

China has an unfortunate track record of vaccine scandals and the lack of good data on the safety and efficacy of China’s shots among the elderly in homegrown vaccine’s clinical trials does not build confidence.

Health workers have been cautious about recommending vaccines for those with high blood pressure or autoimmune disorders and given the negligible chance of COVID infection, there seemed little reason to take the risk. In most of China, COVID has never been more than a news report. Thanks to the success of the 2020 measures, many cities have never logged a single case and elderly people regard the threat as very remote.

The Chinese population and the regime also suffered from “other people’s problem”-syndrome. Not unreasonably they convinced themselves that COVID was an issue for the failed and degenerate West. Rather than joining a broad global front to endorse precautionary vaccination and boosting with whatever vaccinations were too hand, Beijing allowed the media to spread questions about the efficacy and safety of vaccines in general.

But the real question, given the CCP-regime’s supposed grip on society, is why personal attitudes and public opinion matter at all. Why did the regime not impose vaccine mandates?

One part of the explanation may be that the primary aim of zero Covid was to minimize the number of cases. It thus made sense to prioritize vaccinating the more mobile, younger population, rather than elderly people who can be sheltered by simply staying at home.

Remarkably, at the city level where the vaccination program have to be delivered, the authorities have repeatedly shrunk from forcing the issue. During the height of its bout with COVID, Shanghai city authorities gave cash rewards and did vaccination house calls for the elderly. That raised the delivery of a first course of vaccine to nearly 70% of the elderly group. But without a booster that offers only little protection.

When Beijing attempted to impose the first vaccine mandate in China, the result was an embarrassment. Even with essential retail outlets exempted from the vaccine requirement, within 48 hours the public outcry against coercion forced a retreat. In September, China’s National Health Commission clarified that whilst cash incentives and insurance for “vaccine accidents” are considered acceptable, vaccinate mandates were rejected as national policy. A Health Commission expert declared that

These practices (mandates) violate the principle of vaccination and also cause inconvenience to the masses. Wu Liangyou said that the new crown virus vaccination should be carried out in accordance with the principles of knowledge, consent, voluntariness and seeking truth from facts, and emphasized that the introduction of vaccination policies and measures must be rigorous and prudent, carefully evaluated, to ensure compliance with laws and regulations, and strictly aside by the bottom line of safety. It is reported that the National Health and Health Commission will guide all localities to make good use of health codes and vaccination codes, and resolutely put an end to the two-code joint inspection and compulsory vaccination.

The squeamishness of the regime when it comes to shots is remarkable. Clearly, the CCP-regime does not resist coercive measures. One can hardly imagine anything more coercive in peace time than the closed loop production system in which workers are confined to their factories. Nor does it shrink from costs. The gigantic testing apparatus of Zero Covid that allows a hundred million people to be tested in a single days is very costly. According to the Economist:

The 35 largest firms producing covid-19 tests raked in some 150bn yuan ($21bn) in revenues in the first half of 2022 alone. A broker, Soochow Securities, has estimated China’s bill for covid testing at 1.7trn yuan this year, or around 1.5% of gdp. That number, which some consider an underestimate, equates to nearly half of all China’s public spending on education in 2020.

This highlights the need to understand the complexity of CCP rule, the way in which the appropriate limits of its coercive power are defined and the way in which it prefers certain tactics and instruments to others.

 

[golden_blunder]

Mask up time again

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Mask up time again

For flu, maybe. Which seems to be making people a hell of a lot sicker than covid.

 

[Nickosaur]

I've been knocked out with covid symptoms for the last four days. Convinced it was covid but taken several negative tests later it must just be flu. Still fecking sucks.

 

[golden_blunder]

For flu, maybe. Which seems to be making people a hell of a lot sicker than covid.

True, they are both definitely doing the rounds. I know at least 4 people who have been laid low with covid the last week. Good job it’s not like it was in the first strain because it’s rampant

 

[Pogue Mahone]

True, they are both definitely doing the rounds. I know at least 4 people who have been laid low with covid the last week. Good job it’s not like it was in the first strain because it’s rampant

There’s shitloads of covid and flu doing the rounds right now. Which may be a consequence of lockdowns this time last year?

From what I hear from medics I know you’re much more likely to end up in hospital from flu than covid. Combination of latest variants of covid being less virulent and much fewer people being vaccinated against covid than flu.

Amongst my friends that’s been the pattern too. Covid = annoying head cold. Flu = absolutely fecking miserable for a week or more.

 

[golden_blunder]

Is anyone else still paranoid when you cough in a store?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is anyone else still paranoid when you cough in a store?

Was at a PTA meeting last night where my wife choked on a biscuit and had a coughing fit. That was awkward.

 

[golden_blunder]

Was at a PTA meeting last night where my wife choked on a biscuit and had a coughing fit. That was awkward.

I bet! Was in the pharmacy earlier and took a coughing fit, had to take myself outside

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

It’s actually quite funny. I don’t think I know a single person who hasn’t been struck down at least once over the last month. Literally half of my daughter’s class were all out at once. Her school lost so many teachers they had to get parents to help as there’s not a single substitute teacher available in the whole county.

I was supposed to go to three pre-Christmas drinks over the last week. All cancelled when the host got sick (kind of pleased about this)

I wonder if in previous years we were more likely to crack on and get on with things despite being sick? Or is there a whole load more illness around this winter than ever before? Either way, it’s fecking nuts.

 

[Pickle85]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

It’s actually quite funny. I don’t think I know a single person who hasn’t been struck down at least once over the last month. Literally half of my daughter’s class were all out at once. Her school lost so many teachers they had to get parents to help as there’s not a single substitute teacher available in the whole county.

I was supposed to go to three pre-Christmas drinks over the last week. All cancelled when the host got sick (kind of pleased about this)

I wonder if in previous years we were more likely to crack on and get on with things despite being sick? Or is there a whole load more illness around this winter than ever before? Either way, it’s fecking nuts.

Yep, seems like everyone is sick at the moment. I'm down with some kind of headsnot throatfungus disease (technical terms) and my other half just recovered from what she made seem an almost terminal cold. Almost everyone that's working until the very end, pre xmas, also seems to have been taken mysteriously ill, though can't vouch for the legitimacy of those bugs.

 

[2cents]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

It’s actually quite funny. I don’t think I know a single person who hasn’t been struck down at least once over the last month. Literally half of my daughter’s class were all out at once. Her school lost so many teachers they had to get parents to help as there’s not a single substitute teacher available in the whole county.

I was supposed to go to three pre-Christmas drinks over the last week. All cancelled when the host got sick (kind of pleased about this)

I wonder if in previous years we were more likely to crack on and get on with things despite being sick? Or is there a whole load more illness around this winter than ever before? Either way, it’s fecking nuts.

All five in my household currently down with the vomiting big thing (Norovirus?).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

All five in my household currently down with the vomiting big thing (Norovirus?).

Oh man. Sympathies. That’s the absolute worst.

 

[Munkehboi]

Not sure what it's like on a national level but there are more influenza A +ve patients isolating in our hospital wards than covid patients right now.

 

[Mockney]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

It’s actually quite funny. I don’t think I know a single person who hasn’t been struck down at least once over the last month. Literally half of my daughter’s class were all out at once. Her school lost so many teachers they had to get parents to help as there’s not a single substitute teacher available in the whole county.

I was supposed to go to three pre-Christmas drinks over the last week. All cancelled when the host got sick (kind of pleased about this)

I wonder if in previous years we were more likely to crack on and get on with things despite being sick? Or is there a whole load more illness around this winter than ever before? Either way, it’s fecking nuts.

I’ve been ill constantly since about early November. Had a cough I couldn’t shake for about a month, then the vomiting thing, and now I’ve got a fluey cold thing. Doesn’t help that I’ve got a child newly in Nursery who keeps relentlessly brining home this shit, but still, I’m pretty sure this is the longest I’ve ever been ill..

Maybe fact that I wasn’t Ill at all for the previous two years (apart from a bout of Covid) is possibly responsible for my immune system being in a weird state of confusion?

 

[Big-Red]

I’ve been ill constantly since about early November. Had a cough I couldn’t shake for about a month, then the vomiting thing, and now I’ve got a fluey cold thing. Doesn’t help that I’ve got a child newly in Nursery who keeps relentlessly brining home this shit, but still, I’m pretty sure this is the longest I’ve ever been ill..

Maybe fact that I wasn’t Ill at all for the previous two years (apart from a bout of Covid) is possibly responsible for my immune system being in a weird state of confusion?

Glad I'm not alone, had a regular cold in November. That never fully cleared, coughing for 2 weeks now into sinus infection. Love life.

 

[Massive Spanner]

All five in my household currently down with the vomiting big thing (Norovirus?).

 

[Dumbstar]

After two years of isolation and careful distancing this is the winter we finally get to properly and openly catch up with all of the other viruses that have been tapping their feet patiently, hands on hips. Most of my family were down for a week with what I believe was flu. All brought home from school of course.

I just stocked up with Lidl Ginger and Ginger+Turmeric shots for a pound each. Both taste awful but they don't half do the job.

 

[SilentWitness]

Since having covid I find myself every three months or so having a terrible cold. Currently have a nasty one as do most people I know in London. Cold and flu tablets out of stock everywhere.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not sure what it's like on a national level but there are more influenza A +ve patients isolating in our hospital wards than covid patients right now.

Definitely more flu patients being hospitalised in Ireland than covid patients (where hospital cases seem to be mainly incidental findings)

 

[RacingClub]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

A mate of mine in Dublin got some sort of virus that caused him bad diarrhea so he started popping imodiums to self medicate and eventually ended up in hospital due to the fact he fainted in the street as he was (somehow) unknowingly shitting blood.

He then was released (within 4 hours) before going home and shitting tonnes of blood that night and being readmitted.

I think he had to have 4 blood transfusions in the end but he's alright now.

 

[Pexbo]

A mate of mine in Dublin got some sort of virus that caused him bad diarrhea so he started popping imodiums to self medicate and eventually ended up in hospital due to the fact he fainted in the street as he was (somehow) unknowingly shitting blood.

He then was released (within 4 hours) before going home and shitting tonnes of blood that night and being readmitted.

I think he had to have 4 blood transfusions in the end but he's alright now.

Im on holiday with my partners parents at the moment, would your mate mind if I told this story when we’re out for a meal later?

 

[James_42]

Got covid last week and lots of other people I know also got it, is there anyone on here that has Ulcerative Colitis and noticed a change in their condition since getting covid?

I'm pretty sure I'm having a flare up because of it, since I'm having issues I haven't had in a long time and the only thing I can think of that has changed is getting covid.

Is that a known issue?

 

[RacingClub]

Im on holiday with my partners parents at the moment, would your mate mind if I told this story when we’re out for a meal later?

he says he has some pictures that look like the elevator scene from "The Shining" so if you need visual aids then I'll get him to pass them on!

How a grown man passes pints of blood (to the extent of passing out in the street) I don't know but he's on the mend now.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Had caught covid start of November least offensive cold I can remember. Just got back on my feet after the flu. Three days in bed and ruined my birthday as well.


Eldest son's household have been through the wringer one thing after another since start of November which is hard to cope with, with two under fives.

Youngest son currently laid flat out with the flu he says I gave him.


I expect, post the Christmas get togethers, this is going to get wild.

 

[golden_blunder]

he says he has some pictures that look like the elevator scene from "The Shining" so if you need visual aids then I'll get him to pass them on!

How a grown man passes pints of blood (to the extent of passing out in the street) I don't know but he's on the mend now.

I had a colonoscopy a few years ago and to cut a story short, I was passing blood so went to A&E. Student doctor said you’re grand you can go home. I said would it not be better to wait and see what happens next time I go to the loo. She reluctantly agreed. So i popped off to the loo in A&E, shat a bowl full of blood and passed out on the toilet seat. Woken by nurses getting me off the toilet seat and onto a stretcher

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2022/1221/1343101-hse-health/

@Pogue Mahone ties in with what you were saying

 

[SilentWitness]

Since having covid I find myself every three months or so having a terrible cold. Currently have a nasty one as do most people I know in London. Cold and flu tablets out of stock everywhere.

Felt like I was getting better yesterday and now I’ve woke up feeling fecking awful. Feel nauseous constantly, my head feels heavy as heck and it feels like I can barely move my body.

 

[jojojo]

Meanwhile China, having had a policy of zero covid and mass lockdowns only a month ago have moved directly to advice that suggests they'd like everyone (or at any rate, at least 60% of the population) to get infected in the next few weeks.

They've more or less stopped testing for covid unless the test is needed for a hospital clinical decision. They've advised people who feel ill with COVID symptoms but who can go to work, to go to work.

Now they've explained that COVID deaths are to be defined as only those deaths caused primarily by COVID pneumonia (which is less frequent with Omicron than with previous variants). That basically rules out deaths at home, and deaths among people with pre-existing conditions - which in practice, given the scope of the definitions, will be anyone over 70 and all the most vulnerable under that age.

It's not surprising then that China is still reporting daily covid deaths in single figures.

Hopefully their belated attempts to vaccinate their over 80s will have come in time to save some lives - but we may never know for sure. Incidentally, their under 60s who are at the lowest risk from COVID have high vaccination rates, and have had for a while.

 

[AlPistacho]

Meanwhile China, having had a policy of zero covid and mass lockdowns only a month ago have moved directly to advice that suggests they'd like everyone (or at any rate, at least 60% of the population) to get infected in the next few weeks.

They've more or less stopped testing for covid unless the test is needed for a hospital clinical decision. They've advised people who feel ill with COVID symptoms but who can go to work, to go to work.

Now they've explained that COVID deaths are to be defined as only those deaths caused primarily by COVID pneumonia (which is less frequent with Omicron than with previous variants). That basically rules out deaths at home, and deaths among people with pre-existing conditions - which in practice, given the scope of the definitions, will be anyone over 70 and all the most vulnerable under that age.

It's not surprising then that China is still reporting daily covid deaths in single figures.

Hopefully their belated attempts to vaccinate their over 80s will have come in time to save some lives - but we may never know for sure. Incidentally, their under 60s who are at the lowest risk from COVID have high vaccination rates, and have had for a while.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china...ove-5000-per-day-uk-research-firm-2022-12-22/

I think there’s something very sinister about the way the Chinese Government just opened everything and told everyone “ok just get on”, it’s almost like they are punishing the people who protested covid zero, as we’ve seen reopening has to be done in stages. Surely the Chinese Government knew this.

 

[Wibble]

For flu, maybe. Which seems to be making people a hell of a lot sicker than covid.

Since 2009 I haven't had a severe flu presumably due to getting vaccinated every year but Covid knocked the crap out of me despite having 4 shots - nothing like seriously enough to be hospitalised with no lung involvement - just bad flu like symptoms with the utter exhaustion lasting for about 3 weeks. My wife who kindly shared it with me was similar if not quite as bad. My much younger neighbour had it recently as well and only found out that he had it by testing positive - he had it before and was only testing because his wife and baby had it for the first time. So it is obviously highly variable depending on things like age, vaccination, previous infection etc etc. Which isn't at all surprising.

We seem to have about 40/50 people hospitalised at any one time with daily infections peaking at about 25k.

 

[berbatrick]

Covid or no-covid, is everyone else finding everyone they know absolutely fecking decimated by assorted lurgies this winter? Or is it mainly a Dublin thing?

It’s actually quite funny. I don’t think I know a single person who hasn’t been struck down at least once over the last month. Literally half of my daughter’s class were all out at once. Her school lost so many teachers they had to get parents to help as there’s not a single substitute teacher available in the whole county.

I was supposed to go to three pre-Christmas drinks over the last week. All cancelled when the host got sick (kind of pleased about this)

I wonder if in previous years we were more likely to crack on and get on with things despite being sick? Or is there a whole load more illness around this winter than ever before? Either way, it’s fecking nuts.

2 colleagues have 2 young kids each, and all of the kids have got ill multiple times since September. Latest was flu.

 

[thebelfastboy]

Me and my son (aged 4) tested positive for covid today - I'm pretty much fine but he's in bed with a high temperature, lethargic etc.... Fingers crossed it all passes for him soon. We've also a newborn in the house but he seems fine.

Now, my wife was planning to have her sister and a friend round for dinner this evening and wait for this- I'm getting hassle because this has ruined their plans and that I basically shouldn't have bothered testing.... Her sister is also a healthcare worker and it's most likely in their house too but they aren't testing because they don't want it to disrupt any Christmas plans....

Great start to the holidays round here

 

[RacingClub]

Now, my wife was planning to have her sister and a friend round for dinner this evening and wait for this- I'm getting hassle because this has ruined their plans and that I basically shouldn't have bothered testing.... Her sister is also a healthcare worker and it's most likely in their house too but they aren't testing because they don't want it to disrupt any Christmas plans....

You were 100% in the right IMO mate and fair play to you for not burying your head in the sand.

Hope you and the young fella feel better soon.