I don't. Not impossible but unlikely.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Managed to avoid it for 3 years, but the missus got it and passed it on to me!
Somehow went from feeling relatively good last night, to waking up at 5am extremely heavy headed, with a rapid heart rate. Took a couple of paracetamol and feel reasonable now.
Funny how I've got the exact same symptoms as I did after my 1st vaccine. Hoping it will last the same amount of time as that too!
Somehow went from feeling relatively good last night, to waking up at 5am extremely heavy headed, with a rapid heart rate. Took a couple of paracetamol and feel reasonable now.
Funny how I've got the exact same symptoms as I did after my 1st vaccine. Hoping it will last the same amount of time as that too!
It came from bloody Lindelof
I wouldn't be surprised with that wicked right boot of his
Oh it’s wicked alrightI wouldn't be surprised with that wicked right boot of his
I may regret this but here’s fascinating thread on - oh yes - Sweden and the outcome of their approach in terms of excess deaths.
tl;dr Looks like a lot of the decisions they made have been vindicated by data/hindsight.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
tl;dr Looks like a lot of the decisions they made have been vindicated by data/hindsight.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Although worth bearing in mind that Sweden did still implement a fair few measures to limit spread. And did a great job with vaccinations. All of which helps.
We probably do and I'd trust peer reviewed science over the FBI
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/covid-tied-to-wildlife-sales-at-wuhan-market
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715
So my partner tested positive for COVID just under 2 weeks ago.
We sleep in the same bed and haven't been apart for months but I didn't get it from her.
Admittedly I've had a few boosters with last one being around October last year.
Was expecting to wake up every day with some symptoms but nope.
Obviously, I did a test and it came back negative.
Probably checked out my lungs after all the years smoking and said, "we're good, bro. Let's move on troops."
I still haven't had COVID so was surprised she didn't pass it to me.
We sleep in the same bed and haven't been apart for months but I didn't get it from her.
Admittedly I've had a few boosters with last one being around October last year.
Was expecting to wake up every day with some symptoms but nope.
Obviously, I did a test and it came back negative.
Probably checked out my lungs after all the years smoking and said, "we're good, bro. Let's move on troops."
I still haven't had COVID so was surprised she didn't pass it to me.
I'd also place money on that not being a valid comparison due to the different ways data is classified, collected and/or compared to previous years.
I got COVID and the rapid tests didn't detect it until I was well on the way to recovery and even then the line was very very faint. Probably due to the rapid testsnot being that great especially with omicron.
Is it possible I did have it but showed no symptoms?
Certainly possible I'd say.
Perhaps be better I don't tell her that otherwise I'll get the blame of passing it onto her. (She still wears a mask daily)
Without evidence it didn't happen
The thread goes deep on all of that. It’s as valid a comparison as it’s possible to make.
Regulas mourinho.gif incoming.
I know we argued a lot but I don't think the Sweden model would work here. As you say, we fecking love to socialise in Ireland.
I guess the argument to the other side would be, would we have socialised so damn much and hard all at once if there weren't big long shutdowns in our everyday lives compared to most of Europe? Unlikely.
Yep, I agree and it makes for some interesting reading. Interpretation isn't easy though - because it's very hard not to read our own personal prejudices into it.
Some patterns are pretty clear-cut. The European countries who got hit earliest in the first wave were always going to be in poor shape that year - we heard about but didn't experience SARS1/MERS - it wasn't until COVID hit Italy that I think most of us really understood what a pandemic looked like
The business/school/travel closures while we were trying to understand IFRs etc made sense, but equally it made sense to understand what people were doing for themselves. If you look at some of the details, it's pretty clear that infection rates must have been falling fast in some countries before any kind of official lockdown started - though hospitalisations and deaths were still rising due to the time lag between infection and severe illness.
What I think it does illustrate though is that while legal controls can sound like a solution, they are only about "flattening the curve" to keep hospitals running and to buy time while trying to understand the disease and look for solutions. The heavy lifting in terms of longterm death tolls is actually done by vaccines and health/social care. Ultimately that requires a level of social cohesion, trust and funding which is more important than any particular legal definition of essential services/travel/mixing etc.
But looking at the results as displayed I'd place money on it being misleading.
Yeah, we saw with our crazy surges later on in the pandemic what can happen when we take the brakes off. And that’s really just normal Irish socialising. I don’t actually think it’s possible to socialise more than we always did already. Post lockdown giddiness or not.
I still think it’s good that we tried to keep a lid on things when our ICUs were filling up fast. That intuitively felt like the right thing to do. Working from home and closing pubs and nightclubs in the earliest stage of the pandemic. With hindsight, maybe we kept them closed too long? Ditto for school closures. And the ban on amateur sports felt insane at the time and looks even more mad now.
Why though? The data is what it is. It feels like you don’t want to believe it because of your own biases. Which is unscientific.
Because the data isn't comparable.
If the baseline data differs and the current data differs then comparison graphs are meaningless
Just for clarity I'll mention that the Sweden figure has been amended. Deaths were higher than that "bottom of the excess deaths league" table in the first tweet implied. It's Scandinavian neighbours did do better.
With the updated/corrected data the chat looks like this:
Explanation of the problem in the first dataset is in the tweet thread.
With the updated/corrected data the chat looks like this:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Explanation of the problem in the first dataset is in the tweet thread.
I had it in December for the first time and it barely registered on the test, the faintest of lines despite having it pretty badly. Certainly possible you had it without knowing, lucky you!!
They're all based on the standard European databases and the same modelling of what constitutes normal death rates in the countries.
It's not an exact science for sure - trend lines, even with corrections never are. It's why I'm not fond of the whole business of looking at things as if it's a competition. However, even with the error bars, it's still valuable. This won't be the last pandemic, we may be able to do better next time.
I fear we will do worse the next time because so much misinformation got a hold this time there are large chunks of populations who wnt trust govt warnings etc and will resist all efforts
There was last time. Problem is people who think they're intelligent and independently minded by disbelieving the officials will to a man nearly always believe what their racist aunt-in-law posts on Facebook.
"Apparently...."
Which is really weird as I smoked for 30 years so I would have thought I'd have been hit harder
The fact that people are still testing themselves for covid really bugs me. Why? What's the point? If you test negative does that mean it's ok to go out and about and possibly pass influenza on to vulnerable people? Because, if anything, influenza is more dangerous than covid right now. So doing a covid test will tell you nothing useful. Please stop.
It's the opposite in Peru right now.
I took a test for more curiosity though.
Up until at least Christmas they were still testing and segregating people in hospitals here, so they obviously think there is still something to be worried about.
Curiosity is probably the only rational reason to do a test, to be fair.
Why is it the opposite in Peru?
They haven't been doing that in Ireland for months now.
For the majority of the country, they do not have access or the facilities to test for influenza and apart from avian influenza and sub strains, COVID is still regarded as the bigger killer.
70% of households don't even have a fridge so daily hand to hand bartering is rife.
So covid is the bigger killer because it's the only one being tested for. That's kind of my point. Plus there's a false security about non-covid viruses that comes from persistently testing for covid and not behaving the same way with every viral infection, positive covid test, or negative covid test.
I’ve got about a dozen tests left. Would it be better if I chucked them in the bin unused?
Or is it ok with you if when I am feel like I’ve got the flu, I use it to see if it’s covid out of curiosity?
The mortality rates here have soared in the last few years.
See above. If you're really desperate to know whether or not SARS-CoV-2 is behind your sniffles then knock yourself out. Once you've already had it at least once I don't really understand the curiosity but whatever. The main thing is how you behave if you get a negative test. Because the really annoying thing about all of this is hearing about people feeling sick, getting a negative covid test and then going into work/sending their kids to school "it's ok, the covid test was negative" That's been a factor in the crazy amount of non-covid viruses sweeping through society this winter.
Agreed on people’s behaviour around normal cold and flu. I don’t know why they think it’s acceptable to share those bugs knowing what we all know now about immunocompromised individuals.
Yeah, I thought the one and only positive to come out of this would be a bit more common sense around how to behave when you've caught an URTI. So it's been quite annoying how often I hear people thinking a negative covid test means all bets are off. And don't even get me started on parents sending their kids in to school with the puke from a winter vomiting bug barely dry on their lips.